We just spent 6 months to add 1 figure to this paper. Some people said, "Couples aren't prioritizing men's careers. Men just have better earnings opportunities when moving." Earnings effects of moves for couples on the left, singles on the right. Negligible gap between single men and women.

🚨 New working paper alert 🚨 Missing summer — and the Tour de France? Don’t worry, we got you covered. 🚴‍♂️🚴‍♂️🚴‍♂️ In this paper, we show that being on the route of Tour de France reduces far-right voting. osf.io/preprints/so...

Zur Stärkung der - na klar - Resilienz von Postdocs bietet die Postdoc Academy der Berlin University Alliance jetzt "Pferdegestütztes Coaching" an. Auf dem Workshop kann man seine Resilienz "durch direkte, nonverbale Rückmeldung von Pferden" stärken.

Update #2, RETRACTED: 15 months after we (w @ollefolke.bsky.social and @johannarickne.bsky.social ) submitted the initial comment to the Journal, we've noticed the paper was ultimately retracted. Retraction note here: link.springer.com/article/10.1...

🧵Replication: Can refugee flows be lowered by reducing welfare? Agersnap et al. (2020, AER:I) study this in Denmark, reporting lower benefits strongly reduce migration flows. I reanalyze this paper, finding a much more nuanced result.

Grundsicherung, aber wie? Ein neues Experiment belebt den Traum vom bedingungslosen Grundeinkommen. Doch es führt in die Irre, stattdessen braucht Deutschland endlich eine bedarfsorientierte Grundsicherung, die Arbeit nicht bestraft. Eine Anleitung zur Reparatur zeitung.faz.net/faz/wirtscha...

How Tariffs Affect Trade Deficits... ... a new paper with amazing trade economist Arnaud Costinot. Many politicians and the general public expect tariffs to reduce imports lower imports and thus work to close a trade deficit. Economists typically say "not so fast"... 🧵1/n

People are willing to forgo 15-30% of their wage to avoid hostile work environments. Women report a stronger distaste for exclusive workplaces and environments with sexual harassment and value hybrid work twice as much in the presence of sexual harassment. Collis & @clemvaneff.bsky.social

Wow! Three scholars at Columbia, Michigan, & Maryland just introduced a measure of the partisan leanings of employers in the U.S. The data is constructed by linking voter registrations to online worker profiles. VRscores capture the political affiliations of 21.8M workers across 2.6M employers.

First instalment of my substack primer on right-wing populism in Europe is out. jacobedenhofer.substack.com/p/explaining...

NEW - Evidence Can Change Partisan Minds but Less So in Hostile Contexts - cup.org/3E7A4ja "findings show that, in the absence of affective triggers, partisans were persuaded by both congenial and uncongenial information" - @jinwookim.bsky.social #OpenAccess

Formulating the regressor endogeneity problem using a novel conditional copula endogeneity model to capture the regressor-error dependence unexplained by exogenous regressors, from Xixi Hu, Yi Qian, and Hui Xie https://www.nber.org/papers/w33607

📢New WP w/ @borusyak.bsky.social We derive the most powerful recentered IVs for formula treatments & propose an algorithm for approximating them This approach yields *huge* power gains, relative to conventional simulated IV, when estimating Medicaid crowdout effects Check it out! t.co/UPg2XQBefN

Two papers that made me realize that public support for antidemocratic politicians is more personalistic-cultish and less ideological than I thought Kim & Patterson 2024: www.cambridge.org/core/journal... @noamgidron.bsky.social et al 2025: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10....

What happened when the editor of @theatlantic.com was included on Mike Walz's group chat www.theatlantic.com/politics/arc...

This is an interesting story and highlights the poor state of digital plumbing of societies. With digital ID tied, e.g. to your own mobility data, entry- and exit records, biometrically verified digital payments, one can in essence create zero knowledge proofs that validate information such as..

We are very happy to publish the "National Elections Database," including the results of 1,023 presidential and 2,962 parliamentary elections conducted worldwide since 1946! www.nationalelectionsdatabase.com with Benjamin Marx and Vincent Rollet

At this point, it is obvious that it is not safe for scholars to travel the US. There are no easy solutions for conferences scheduled in the US this year but it should be cleary to everyone involved that they cannot just go ahead as planned.

It continues: Most wealthy countries have an aging population and low fertility: there are no fiscal miracles. Closing the door on high-skill migration is, as we will show, a uniquely bad policy proposition. Link to the paper: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

This is a pretty remarkable set of results. I got fixated on adults in this, since it seems like a big change! One fact that I discovered by digging into the original reports is that this masks some pretty interesting heterogeneity: www.oecd.org/en/publicati...

Slowly but surely coming along: we have a new version of our working textbook on diffs in diffs! papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.... Chapters 2 to 4, which cover the set up, classical DIDs, and relaxations of the parallel trends assumptions have been thoroughly revised and are now almost finished.

Lots of talk on X today about rethinking the results produced by close elections RDDs. So, I thought I'd drop a few recent articles about issues that arise in this space so that folks can have them all in one place. 1/N

Let me explain why I'm so confident that tariffs will cause higher prices.

Being able to drop a quarterly US GDP prediction by 5.1% from +2.3% to -2.8% in a single week is one of the most impressive economic developments in the history of the world.

Revisiting the rationale for place-based policies using a canonical urban framework with agglomeration spillovers, from Pablo D. Fajgelbaum and Cecile Gaubert https://www.nber.org/papers/w33517

Revealing real-time indoor air pollution cuts it by 17 percent overall, 34 percent when occupied. Lower-income households face worse indoor air pollution. A $1 subsidy for monitors has infinite public value, from @rmetcalfe.bsky.social and Sefi Roth https://www.nber.org/papers/w33510

Very happy that our paper (w/ @dziblatt.bsky.social & E Dinas) has been accepted @bjpols.bsky.social . We've seen the center right increasingly adopt far-right rhetoric. Our experiment in 🇩🇪 finds that this erodes anti-prejudice norms *more* than when the far-right employs similar rhetoric. 1/3

Featured in the latest Digest: "Household Heat Pump Adoption and Energy Use" https://www.nber.org/202502/digest/household-heat-pump-adoption-and-energy-use

Deutschland hat gewählt, und die AfD gilt als die große Siegerin. Wie lässt sich ihr Ergebnis einordnen, und welche geografischen Merkmale prägen ihre Unterstützung? @hudde.bsky.social und ich haben das AfD-Zweitstimmenergebnis in den 299 Bundestagswahlkreisen ausgewertet. Ein Thread. 🧵👇

Pflichtlektüre VOR der Wahl aus dem ifo-Institut. www.ifo.de/publikatione...

Prävention ist der Schlüssel für nachhaltige innere Sicherheit. Bildung, Arbeit & soziale Stabilität sind wirkungsvoll, um Kriminalität langfristig zu reduzieren - und damit auch die durch Kriminalität entstehenden gesellschaftlichen Kosten. Mehr im neuen DIWaktuell 👇 www.diw.de/de/diw_01.c....

NEW - The Causal Effect of Affluence on Voter Turnout: New Evidence from Lottery Winnings - cup.org/412AJej "findings strongly suggest that most of the commonly observed positive income-turnout associations do not reflect a causal relationship" - Benny Geys & Rune J. Sørensen #OpenAccess

🚨 Oprea (2024 AER) argued that prospect theory choice anomalies were not due to risk, but due to complexity-driven mistakes. But this new analysis convinces me that Oprea (2024) is substantially wrong. In my opinion, the paper should be retracted.

"The researchers estimate that for every £1 of net government expenditure, the UK boiler upgrade scheme generates £1.24 in social benefits." www.nber.org/202502/diges...

"Der Holocaust-Überlebende Albrecht Weinberg will sein Bundesverdienstkreuz zurückgeben, nachdem die Union mit Stimmen der AfD einen Bundestagsantrag zur Migrationspolitik durchgebracht hat." www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/nach...

Wow. #Merz is so solidly in charge of the CDU and his campaign that no other than Angela #Merkel felt compelled to intervene (not her style at all, under different circumstances). www.buero-bundeskanzlerin-ad.de/erklaerungen...

My JMP has just been published in the JPE Mirco. 👉Changing polling locations to facilitate voting achieves the opposite of the intended effect: We find shifts to mail-in voting and a transitory decline in total turnout. www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...

Der Siegeszug der AfD auf X, powered by Elon Musk: www.faz.net/aktuell/wirt... @curdknupfer.bsky.social

🚨 New Working Paper 🚨 w/ @pdavidboll.bsky.social and @jvoth.bsky.social Do you run regressions on spatial data? Then keep reading! We present a guide and Stata package for methods by Müller and Watson (2024 ECTA) to deal with Spatial Unit Roots in Regressions. Link in 🧵 (1/n)

Trump hat gestern per Executive Order das #Homeoffice für Bundesbedienstete abgeschafft. Warum das kein gutes Vorbild für Deutschland ist, habe ich kürzlich im Tagesspiegel dargelegt.

Ein Konservativer driftet ab: Mit seinem Gedankenspiel zur Ausbürgerung von Straftätern entfernt sich Friedrich Merz vom überlieferten Gedanken hinter dem Status der Staatsbürgerschaft. F.A.Z.-Einspruch-Podcast, Folge 328, ab 2:22. www.faz.net/einspruch/me...

What are our leading theories on this? Energy costs? Lack of digitalization? Overreliance on outdated business models finally caught up on us?

A wish for 2025 is that empirical researchers in and beyond economics read or re-read this JEP paper by Guido Imbens and take to heart—and to practice—its message. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

new WP y'all www.nber.org/papers/w33236

Die Bezahlkarte für Flüchtlinge soll ein Phänomen bekämpfen, dass es in der Realität kaum gibt. Das hätte man auch schon früher wissen können. Die deutsche Migrationspolitik ist von den Fakten losgelöst. www.faz.net/aktuell/wirt...

The standard errors of persistence Timothy G. Conley, Morgan Kelly Forthcoming in J Intl Econ doi.org/10.1016/j.ji... #econsky