New paper with @instrumenthull.bsky.social and Michal Kolesár on leniency/judge IV designs. This article is targeted for the Journal of Economic Perspectives, and so we wrote it with the goal of being accessible to a wide range of users, including advanced undergrads!🧵 arxiv.org/abs/2511.03572

We also show, (as @instrumenthull.bsky.social loves to show!), that UJIVE can be used to assess the compiler characteristics of the leniency design. If the compliers look similar to the full sample on observables, that's evidence your treatment effects may generalize beyond the complier population.

Developing a step-by-step guide to leniency designs, drawing on recent econometric literatures, from Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, @instrumenthull.bsky.social, and Michal Kolesár www.nber.org/papers/w34473

NBER grants to fund research into economic measurement - I find this agenda very compelling and important #linkoftheday www.nber.org/news/nber-la...

The NBER Race and Stratification Working Group will have its annual meeting on Friday, March 27, 2026. Francisca Antman, Bocar Ba, Robynn Cox and I are organizing the program. Submit your paper by the December 11, 2025 deadline! @nber.org #EconSky www.nber.org/conferences/...

We couldn't not rate this classic early DAG by our beloved collective granddagy, Sewall Wright. 14/10. Ten for the DAG, plus one for each cute guinea-pig node. From Wright (1920) "The Relative Importance of Heredity and Environment in Determining the Piebald Pattern of Guinea-Pigs"

An Imbens retrospective on experimental v. non-experimental methods — looks like a must-read www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, Peter Hull, Michal Koles\'ar: Leniency Designs: An Operator's Manual https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.03572 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2511.03572 https://arxiv.org/html/2511.03572

Excited to post a new working paper with @instrumenthull.bsky.social and Michal Kolesár: arxiv.org/abs/2511.03572 Will post a thread on it soon, but if you're interested in judge/examiner designs, I think you'll find this guide very helpful!

Found @instrumenthull.bsky.social 's lawn: www.reddit.com/r/nextfuckin...

Zero new jobs in the federal government posted on JOE in the past three weeks. Not surprising given the government shutdown (which began Oct 1), but still grim. At least two-thirds fewer such jobs posted in 2025 than in each of the past six years at this time. #econjobmarket

Thanks BeNA (and Berlin) for a great few days!

everything peter hull: www.nber.org/papers/w27845 shift-share is the new black

📢 Save the date! Join the BeNA Lecture Series with Peter Hull (Brown University) on Shift-Share & Recentered IV 📅 Oct 9–10, 2025 📍 DIW Berlin Deep dive into modern econometric methods + a research talk + office hours. Register by Sep 25, 2025! labor-research.net/2025/08/29/b...

Check out the recording! www.chamberlainseminar.org/past-seminar...

My coauthors and I are hiring a project coordinator for new research on an innovative jail-based rehabilitation paper (IGNITE), building on our recent QJE Apply at careersearch.stanford.edu/jobs/project...

My coauthors and I are hiring a project coordinator for new research on an innovative jail-based rehabilitation paper (IGNITE), building on our recent QJE Apply at careersearch.stanford.edu/jobs/project...

Come hear what Larry Katz, Xavier D'Haultfoeuille, Kei Hirano, Francesca Molinari, and Andres Santos think about publishing econometrics in general interest journals! Tomorrow's Chamberlain Seminar: 12pm ET

Come hear what Larry Katz, Xavier D'Haultfoeuille, Kei Hirano, Francesca Molinari, and Andres Santos think about publishing econometrics in general interest journals! Tomorrow's Chamberlain Seminar: 12pm ET

New 'Metrics Note! "One weird trick" to characterize compliers / the effective population underlying design-based OLS & IV specifications Check it out: www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/lgba6...

The Chamberlain Seminar continues this semester with two exciting online sessions on 9/26 & 10/31! Check out the details below and click below to join our mailing list! mailman.stanford.edu/mailman/list...

The Chamberlain Seminar continues this semester with two exciting online sessions on 9/26 & 10/31! Check out the details below and click below to join our mailing list! mailman.stanford.edu/mailman/list...

New 'Metrics Note! "One weird trick" to characterize compliers / the effective population underlying design-based OLS & IV specifications Check it out: www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/lgba6...

Thrilled that @instrumenthull.bsky.social agreed to share his knowledge in Berlin. Sign up now! Let me know in case of questions 👋

Trying my luck here: @jiafengkevinchen.bsky.social, @instrumenthull.bsky.social, and I just posted a question about conditional expectations under a nonparametric completeness condition. Any thoughts & suggestions much appreciated! stats.stackexchange.com/questions/66...

Here's the link with the timestamp! youtu.be/RpxfvLBqDAY?...

ICYMI: you can watch the recording here (around the 5h19m mark) www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rpxf...

Tomorrow (Thu) at 1:45pm ET: Check out @borusyak.bsky.social's presentation of work w/ Mauricio Caceres Bravo on demand estimation with recentered IVs @ the Frontier Econometric Methods NBER SI. We're honored to have Steve Berry as a discussant! Should be livestreamed at youtube.com/@nbervideos

If you wanna learn more about this, check out @borusyak.bsky.social's presentation next Thursday at the new @nber.org Frontier Econometric Methods day nber.org/conferences/...

Bottom line: if you want your structural estimates to be more robust to model misspecification, be sure to use recentered instruments! arxiv.org/abs/2504.04056

#QJE Aug 2025, #3, “Structural Estimation Under Misspecification: Theory and Implications for Practice,” by Andrews, Barahona (@nanobarahona.bsky.social), Gentzkow, Rambachan (@asheshrambachan.bsky.social), and Shapiro: doi.org/10.1093/qje/...

#QJE Aug 2025, #2, “Systemic Discrimination: Theory and Measurement,” by Bohren, Hull (@instrumenthull.bsky.social), and Imas (@aleximas.bsky.social): doi.org/10.1093/qje/...

Paper by @aislinnbohren.bsky.social @instrumenthull.bsky.social and @aleximas.bsky.social on Systemic Discrimination now published in QJE academic.oup.com/qje/article/...

good instruments

End War

Trump vs Elon spat was just a warmup today

I'll be leading a Shift-Share Mixtape workshop on July 29th & 30th Sign up here! www.eventbrite.com/e/shift-shar...

Happy June 🏳️‍🌈

Thank you Tinbergen Institute! tinbergen.nl/news/1045/ti...

Optimal Formula Instruments: Kirill Borusyak; Peter Hull

8647 is the only 4-digit prime that is 2 less than a square (8649) and 1 more than a triangular number (8646)

Another win for Big IV

Excited to start editing at AEJ: Applied August 1st! Send me/us your best papers!

new linklog: some nice economics papers and a professional update apoorvalal.github.io/lalgorithms/...

Tariffs so good we're exporting Popes now

"The first experiment shows how racial discrimination can accumulate across multiple rounds of hiring through the interaction of two forces: greater discrimination against inexperienced workers, which affects the opportunity to obtain experience, and high subsequent returns to experience. #Econ

Recently accepted by #QJE, “Systemic Discrimination: Theory and Measurement,” by Bohren, Hull, and Imas: doi.org/10.1093/qje/...