This smells distinctly like collider bias and/or selection bias and/or regression to the mean... You simply can't select teen prodigies, and world class athletes rom databases, and go run regressions without serious consideration of the selection process!

🆕 RFBerlin Discussion Paper! @jopieboy.bsky.social examines how expected asylum seeker arrivals affect far-right voting, using evidence from a dispersal policy that reallocates refugees across locations. 🔗 www.rfberlin.com/wp-content/u...

Wat voor invloed heeft de spreidingswet gehad op de stemmen voor uiterst-rechts? In mijn artikel laat ik zien dat gemeenten die een AZC moeten openen aanzienlijk meer op PVV/FVD/JA21 hebben gestemd: @lamyae.bsky.social @ninazeelen.bsky.social @guusvalk.bsky.social @chrisaalberts.bsky.social

🧵 Prior work studied the effect of (refugee) migration on far-right voting, but local inflows can only explain a sliver of the increase in FR voting around refugee waves. In my new WP, find that increased EXPECTATIONS about future migration causally increased FR voting in the Netherlands!

Our CampAIgn Tracker got featured in this brilliant piece of investigative journalism by @groene.nl. They reveal the prompts behind an extremely disturbing AI-powered campaign by Dutch politicians that we find is one of the top producers & spreaders of AI-generated content in this election #tk2025.

📊Working Paper No. 7: “What Drives Refugees’ Return After Conflict?” Survey of 2,500+ Ukrainian refugees across 30 European countries: territorial integrity and security guarantees are key to return. Read: econ4ua.org/wp-content/u... Submit research: lnkd.in/gf2nQ5WC

📣New Working Paper “What Drives Refugees' Return After Conflict?” ✒️ @jopieboy.bsky.social @lchargaziia.bsky.social Yvonne Giesing, Sarah Necker & Panu Poutvaara Insights into how conflict resolution, security, economics, and corruption influence return decisions. 🔗 www.ifo.de/en/cesifo/pu...

🆕 RFBerlin Discussion Paper: @jopieboy.bsky.social, @lchargaziia.bsky.social, Yvonne Giesing, Sarah Necker, and Panu Poutvaara examine the determinants of Ukrainian refugees' return intentions post-conflict. www.rfberlin.com/network-pape...

(1/10) New paper at PNAS: what predicts Ukrainian refugees’ destination choice? We experimentally study the drivers of location choice in a conjoint design: we find that job opportunities, wages and networks are most important, much more so than welfare benefits.

I am often told that public critique of published articles must also solve the issues found. I think this frequently enforced requirement hinders scientific self-correction. Blog post: mmmdata.io/posts/2025/0...

Update #2, RETRACTED: 15 months after we (w @ollefolke.bsky.social and @johannarickne.bsky.social ) submitted the initial comment to the Journal, we've noticed the paper was ultimately retracted. Retraction note here: link.springer.com/article/10.1...

📣 Submit your paper to the Leibniz Open Science Day! I will be there to talk about our recent experience with replicating Ciacci (2024) about impacts of the Swedish legislation that banned sex purchases. Call for papers: www.zbw.eu/de/ueber-uns...

A warm welcome to @jopieboy.bsky.social ‪! 🌟 ‬‬ Thrilled to have him in the network! He researches labor economics and political economy of international migration.📊 🔍 His research: jopieadema.github.io 🔗 www.ifo.de/en/cesifo/ne...

📣Call for papers: 𝗖𝗘𝗠𝗜𝗥 𝗝𝘂𝗻𝗶𝗼𝗿 𝗘𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗼𝗺𝗶𝘀𝘁 𝗪𝗼𝗿𝗸𝘀𝗵𝗼𝗽 𝗼𝗻 𝗠𝗶𝗴𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗰𝗵, 28 - 29 October 2025, Munich Keynote Speaker: Jens Hainmueller (Stanford) ℹ️ www.ifo.de/en/event/202... 👉 Submit by 30 June: app.oxfordabstracts.com/stages/78037... @sebastianschirner.bsky.social @econmunich.bsky.social

🧵Replication: Can refugee flows be lowered by reducing welfare? Agersnap et al. (2020, AER:I) study this in Denmark, reporting lower benefits strongly reduce migration flows. I reanalyze this paper, finding a much more nuanced result.

📣 Join us for the annual Richard Löwenthal Lecture on "Return and Return Intentions of Ukrainian Refugees" by Prof. Panu Poutvaara. 🇺🇦 📅 11.06.2025, 4 PM 📍 Hörsaal A, OEI, Garystr. 55, 14195 Berlin 🔗 tinyurl.com/LOE25 @freieuniversitaet.bsky.social

📢 Come work with us! 🏛️ Faculty of Economics & Statistics, UIBK @econstatuibk.bsky.social‬ @uniinnsbruck.bsky.social‬ ‼️ Three job openings for Full Professor positions - Data Science - Microeconomics - Behavioral Economics Please share! #datascience #economics www.uibk.ac.at/de/info-beru...

𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗶𝗳𝗼 𝗔𝗿𝗲𝗮 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝗳𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗟𝗮𝗯𝗼𝗿 𝗘𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗼𝗺𝗶𝗰𝘀, oganized by 𝗚𝗼𝗿𝗱𝗼𝗻 𝗗𝗮𝗵𝗹 is ending. 👏to @jopieboy.bsky.social on winning the Affiliate Award. Great presentations by @ursina.bsky.social @aadukia.bsky.social, @martinauccioli.bsky.social. 🙏 A special thanks to 𝗔𝗻𝗻𝗮 𝗔𝗶𝘇𝗲𝗿 for her keynote and to all presenters!

We are looking to hire post-doc interested in working on migration, citizenship, and diaspora. Come join us in Münster! Generous contract + no teaching for 2 years. Many details and link to job add here: sites.google.com/site/tnhalbe... Please PM me incase you have questions!

Update: We submitted the comment to the Journal of Population Economics, and today we got a desk reject with this motivation. However, we do not know their conclusion about the main results and why the paper was not retracted. Clearly, they do not hold. 1/4

A re-analysis of Ciacci's (2024) "Banning the purchase of sex increases cases of rape: Evidence from Sweden" Journal of Population Economics reveals major issues. A year ago, reproducers Adema, Folke, and Rickne found coding errors driving the paper's key results. Let's unpack this in a 🧵

🚨 REPLICATION REPORT UPDATE: One year ago, a tweet by John Holbein alerted me, @ollefolke.bsky.social, and @jopieboy.bsky.social to a paper with a shocking result about Sweden’s law criminalizing the purchase of sex.🧵

Anomalies & data problems are found in the Hungarian EU SILC income data from around year 2017. It is very likely that the data was manipulated to decrease the poverty rate. Annamaria Tatrai and Andras Gabos conducted a very thorough investigation of the issue: www.valaszonline.hu/2025/04/01/e...

With @jeromevalette.bsky.social & Simone Bertoli, we are thrilled to announce the Call for Papers for the 3rd edition of the Junior Workshop on the Economics of Migration on 23-24 June 2025 @CERDI, Clermont-Ferrand, France. Submit until 23 February 2025 on economig2025.sciencesconf.org

We are excited to announce the review of Lades et al. (2020) "Daily emotional well-being during the COVID-19 pandemic". Based on the review by Joop Adema, we find Moderate Errors which do not affect the core conclusions. We recommend the authors seek a correction error.reviews/reviews/lade...