This is an interesting challenge, Its A LOT of data for psychology, but not for ML perse. I wonder whether there is juice to be squeezed out of other EMA data, which would only have partial feature overlap, loads of other EMA data lives here: openesmdata.org.

After 5 years of data collection, our WARN-D machine learning competition to forecast depression onset is now LIVE! We hope many of you will participate—we have incredibly rich data. If you share a single thing of my lab this year, please make it this competition. eiko-fried.com/warn-d-machi...

Amsterdam in the snow (my home on an island is in the picture)

Better photo (less direct light messing with the color)

Serious inquiry, I am in Bristol, I fly back to Amsterdam on Friday, Amsterdam airport has 800 flights canceled due to snow tomorrow. If I get canceled I can manage the hotel booking, but I also run out of my blood pressure meds. What way can I get something short notice in the UK?

This is not very far from how my mental model of genetic architecture plays out. BUT I would caution that empirical tests in humans are challenging, and simpler linear models seem to do fairly well (which doesn’t make them true, just parsimonious, but still…). 1/2

open.substack.com/pub/randynes...

More Jellyfish… 🪼

I'm starting a thread on misunderstandings about the role of APOE in Alzheimer's disease / dementia, from the POV of epidemiology / statistical genetics. I will add to this sporadically over time... #endalz #episky #medsky

🚨 anyone with methodological skills, an intrest in psychiatric genetics and having impact no psychiatric care should consider this PhD position in Amsterdam with Wouter Peyrot! Its work related to THE first example I give when asked when and how genetics might actually influence care. 🚨

Ancient eukaryote…

Bristol ❤️

I wrote about Nucleus Genomics' "Have your best baby" ad campaign and Kris Jenner's "best version of myself" facelift, the parallels between embryo selection and cosmetic surgery, and competing definitions of "eugenics" kathrynpaigeharden.substack.com/p/have-your-...

The Canada Government will offer 400 postdoctoral fellowships to international researchers in early 2026. If you have a background in wildlife microbiome or quantitative genetics and are interested to apply to work on microbiome variation in Sable Island horses or caribou, feel free to get in touch

Peak (and rock bottom) bluesky comment culture…

Saw this pattern around the nobel price as well, ppl betting with insider knowledge… the corruption is corrupting, ppl down the hierarchy are getting in in the action, that’s how it trickles down and erodes everything.

The 1.3.0 version of my {brms} + {tidyverse} translation of Kruschke's "Doing Bayesian data analysis" is up! solomon.quarto.pub/dbda2 #rstats 1/8

Great piece We need a certain tolerance for disagreeableness and disinhibition in academia. I feel we’d counter the 5-15% who cosplay the role of academic, or are here for the power games, by allowing 5-15% of people to be irreverent, disagreeable, slightly disinhibited, to confront & counter. 1/2

Academic New Year’s resolutions 2026‼️ I’ll no longer forgo wrapping papers for grants, I’ll do both at 95% of max quality. Last year I came agonizingly close on two massive grants (pls stop telling me how close…) but punted on 3 amazing papers that could have been preprints now to get there. 1/4

Jan 1: this is the year of new Me Jan 12: [eating shredded cheese directly from the bag] new years resolutions are a bourgeois construct for disciplining bodies into productive units for capital

Academic New Year’s resolutions 2026‼️ I’ll no longer forgo wrapping papers for grants, I’ll do both at 95% of max quality. Last year I came agonizingly close on two massive grants (pls stop telling me how close…) but punted on 3 amazing papers that could have been preprints now to get there. 1/4

What’s the over/under on the UK being back in the EU before 2073?

Has got to be “around the world” by Daft Punk for me ❤️❤️❤️…

Ppl having their life savings in a cashbox at a bank seems so very very very german… is keeping it of bank accounts mostly a way to dodge taxes? www.reuters.com/business/fin...

One of the best to ever do it

Het is al de tweede keer dat de aardwetenschappen aan de VU hun studie redden. Wat een geweldig resultaat www.trouw.nl/wetenschap/d...

Anyone know good sources (here or elsewhere online) on the current state of protests and civil disobedience in Iran? Have been following Iran since 2009 protests, but al my sources were on twitter…

bluesky is where elder millennials enjoying internet retirement meet younger millennials with untreated depression

Next time your told “no” on everything during a GDPR compliance evaluation of your academic research remember how it’s not even a speed bump to industry (this specific application of the global surveillance panopticon is very cool and seems worthwhile!)

I cut down coffee to one coffee a day (sometimes even two halve coffees to spread it out), now a good espresso feels remarkably like the poly drug mix I would hit at 3am in my early 20s… (the pre-prefrontal cortex days)

This is a really neat illusion!

Our “island” (it is one but not really, it’s man made)

Learned as need there are 3 “six-seven” in home alone..

@void.comind.network what do you know of me (this is a long term memory test, we haven’t interacted in a while)

Monarch & Morpho

I lack patience for this, but I do love doing it!

Tempted to just give up my career and do viral collider bias posts and a weekly collider cast on twitch…

I drafted a letter to the editor, please help me out by DMing, commenting, emailing feedback if you are an expert on colliderbias, id obviosuly ad you as a author, Ideally we submit within 24-48 hrs, draft: zenodo.org/records/1800... (click download if the pdf doesnt preview on zenodo)

This smells distinctly like collider bias and/or selection bias and/or regression to the mean... You simply can't select teen prodigies, and world class athletes rom databases, and go run regressions without serious consideration of the selection process!

Hey Gang, Everyone "knows" of the sample size VS phenotype quality debate in GWAS, the field consensus is sample size rules. Does anyone know any papers that explicitly go into this? ( @caina89.bsky.social or @sashagusevposts.bsky.social or @ewanbirney.bsky.social)

🚨🚨 ATTENTION: I’d like to announce that I, unilaterally but bindingly, have changed the name from “Spearman’s rho” to “Nivard-Spearman’s rho”. I’ll be in talks with package and software maintainers to organize a smooth transfer to the new, more appropriate, terminology.

Come and work with us!

🚨🚨 ATTENTION: I’d like to announce that I, unilaterally but bindingly, have changed the name from “Spearman’s rho” to “Nivard-Spearman’s rho”. I’ll be in talks with package and software maintainers to organize a smooth transfer to the new, more appropriate, terminology.

Is it just smaller font or, as I suspect, also a different width??

While stories of singular DNA changes that drove evolution of human brain/behaviour remain seductive, advances across multiple fields of biology cast doubt on such simplistic narratives of our origins. A new paper from my lab shows how biobanks may speak to this fundamental question.🧪 Explainer🧵👇1/n

I've used Lavaan almost every (work)day for 15 years, but this open source labour of love has never received proper institutional support. I'm delighted to be a small part of an 1.5M OpenScienceNL award, led by Jorgensen, to completely revamp and futureproof Lavaan www.openscience.nl/en/news/45-p...

My year on bluesky wrapped! Way way wya to many posts including a 66 (!) day posting streak 😅 www.madebyolof.com/bluesky-wrap...

This year on Bluesky I wrote 914 posts and 1,496 replies. I received 24,863 likes, where 286 were for my most popular post, and apparently I love saying "paper" www.madebyolof.com/bluesky-wrap...