I'd be interested in more girl typology. What are the different types of girls? Girl bosses, highlighter girls, horse girls, ..., wine moms, tiger moms, soccer moms. What else? As someone who enjoys personality quizzes, I'd also like to know which one(s) I am.

Well posted. This is the behavior of a mature scientist.

Very pleasantly surprised to see my recent preprint being discussed in this NYT article on silicon sampling and its implications for opinion polling. More forthcoming work on this coming soon! (H/T @rohanalexander.bsky.social) www.nytimes.com/2026/04/06/o...

I recommended this book to a colleague just last week.

To lead in open science efforts, we must engage in open science practices. These papers reporting on the reproducibility et al of science projects aren't even accessible. At least one of the commentaries was also closed access. This is a huge lost opportunity and sets a bad example to all.

Part 2 of my shrinkage estimator series is out! Part 1 covered the univariate case, but now we dive into multivariate shrinkage 🤓 We cover Spearman's classic correlation disattenuation formula, multivariate James-Stein estimators, and hierarchical methods too haines-lab.com/post/how-to-...

Dear causal inference people: Has anybody seen or produced a missingness-graph with different missingness mechanisms *for a reflective measurement model*? Any pointers would be appreciated!

Updating my mixed-effects modelling slides... I have opinions... #statsmeme

Happy "large enough n" day

This is correct, but the problem as always is separating the wheat from the chaff. So with that in mind, what is your favorite niche youtube content from an extremely nerdy perso who excels in their field?

I was rejected from all 15 programs I applied to in 2010. In 2011, I was admitted to 1 of another 15 programs. In both cases, I had high grades, a high GRE score, a developmentally appropriate CV, and several mentors helping with my materials. Mourn the rejection, get a consult, and try again.

Is there some open source spreadsheet that enforces and supports all these recommendations? I'd love to read in a methods section: "We entered and managed all data using OpenSheet with Broman-Woo guardrails."

This is a good reminder that following the demise of bookdown.org, all of my ebooks are now hosted by quarto.pub. You can find the new links here: bsky.app/profile/solo...

Is there a nice way to do this with SPSS? library(marginaleffects) fit <- lm(data = mtcars, mpg ~ disp) predictions(fit, newdata = datagrid(disp = c(100, 200, 300)), hypothesis = difference ~ pairwise)

New blog just dropped! This one is all about estimators—we cover James-Stein, classical test theory, empirical Bayes, penalized regression, and hierarchical models, showing how they all can be used to do a better job than sample stats alone 🤓 haines-lab.com/post/how-to-...

How much does it pay to publish an open access academic book? Read this thread for my story and 💲💰 amounts. 🧵 www.routledge.com/9781032908724

Ok pals. Looking to move all my teaching materials open and online, and am developing new modules that I want to start off this way. Content = reading, quizzes, videos, and code tutorials. Opinions on the best platform? Good examples of best practice I can steal from? Many thanks.

In an RCT, pre/post differences *within* groups are not themselves causal effects. You have confounding with history. However, one can use change scores to compute the causal effect of treatment *between* the groups. It’s all very tricky and easy to confuse.

Has anyone tried teaching *only* Bayesian inferential #stats for undergrad psych (or other UG sosci programs)? Like completely foregoing NHST, confidence whatevers, p values, CLT... I'd be very interested in seeing a syllabus of such a course/ program!

Looking for insight 💡 What tools are people using these days to make external facing dashboards that are low/no cost and where are you hosting them?

New post! It may seem ambitious to ask for individual patient data from clinical trials to be shared, anonymized, for use by other researchers. But the history of medicine shows us that clinical trials have already undergone a series of transformations that once seemed equally bold:

My approach to analyzing data vs other approaches

🎉 It's livestream day 🎉 Join me at 1700 (CET; 1600 UCT) today for two hours of GAM goodness 🤤 📽️ Youtube: youtube.com/live/A9U8e1K... Hit the Notify me 🔔 to get a reminder when I go live #RStats #mgcv #statistics #GAMs #DataScience 🧪

Everyone give Matt papers

Per protocol analysis are a hot dumpster fire mess. They open the door for confounding. As they say, as you randomize, so must you analyze.

#stats Here's a nifty interactive demo of confidence intervals by Kristoffer Magnusson rpsychologist.com/d3/ci/

Remember that you compute power for the smallest effect size of interest. Not the effect you hope for. The smallest effect that you do not want to miss. This is in line with the basic idea of conditional error control: *If* there is an effect large enough to matter, we are likely to detect it.

Was this the most positive @guruspod.bsky.social episode ever? Tune in to find out...

Do y'all know of any RCTs (or other randomized experiments) with an interesting nominal* outcome? *In this case, I'm not including binary or ordinal outcomes as "nominal." Rather, here I'm looking for 3+ unordered categories.

I'm so excited to announce the first release of my newest #Rstats package, {adrftools}! This package facilitates estimation, visualization, and testing for the causal effect of a continuous (i.e., non-discrete) treatment. 🧵 1/10 #statssky #episky #causalinference

So, I can authoritatively state that this figure is too high and likely due to methodological bias in the sampling AND it’s still probably way higher than most folks realize. If it’s even half of that implausible 19%, it’s a generation defining phenomenon.

Should meta-science articles hold themselves to the same standards of transparency and reproducibility that the field prescribes for others? We think so. New preprint and 🧵

A while back, I wrote a thing. If you like experiments and causal inference, you should read it:

New paper, on a worrying trend in meta-science: the practice of anonymising datasets on, e.g., published articles. We argue that this is at odds with norms established in research synthesis, explore arguments for anonymisation, provide counterpoints, and demonstrate implications and epistemic costs.

"Model to Meaning" just received a super generous review in JASA. Check it out! (I'm blushing 😊) Reminder: You can get the paper copy from CRC, and the full **free** version will remain online forever at marginaleffects.com www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

What does mentorship when you are old enough/far enough in your career to be someone else’s mentor?

This chapter on multicollinearity is a zinger, especially the central point in Section 23.4. If your focus is on model *predictions*, multicollinearity isn't necessarily a problem, and it might even be good. Well posted, @chrisadamsecon.bsky.social!

Feeling some appreciation for @lnalborczyk.bsky.social's logit dot plots (lnalborczyk.github.io/blog/2018-01...).

Does it make sense to preregister simulation studies? This question has sparked a lot of debate. ▶️We* work through the why, when, and how ▶️We discuss different phases of methodological research to clarify where preregistration might (or might not) add value 📝 Preprint: doi.org/10.31234/osf...

dplyr 1.2.0 is out now and we are SO excited! - `filter_out()` for dropping rows - `recode_values()`, `replace_values()`, and `replace_when()` that join `case_when()` as a complete family of recoding/replacing tools These are huge quality of life wins for #rstats! tidyverse.org/blog/2026/02...

You can easily switch between magrittr pipe `%>%` and base pipe `|>` in the RStudio settings 🧰 #rstats #dataviz #phd

I reviewed an earlier version of this paper. I think it's interesting, because you can tell by reading it that evolutionary psychology still lacks a loyal opposition and a healthy error culture. It's a defensive paper, targeted at people who believe evolution stops at the neck, YouTubers, _others_

🚨 GAMs have moved on—so it’s time for an update. On March 3, 2026 (17:00–19:00 CET) I’ll be livestreaming an updated introduction to Generalized Additive Models in R 📺 YouTube livestream link: youtube.com/live/A9U8e1K... #RStats #mgcv #GAMs #gratia #statistics 🧪

What's the best open book for data science from a base-R perspective? #rstats

For a weekly seminar class, I'm looking for pairings of psych popularization with scholarly take-downs of the underlying research. I want students to see examples of how shoddy research gets hyped.

#rstats bat signal: If any of y'all have experience with multilevel multinomial logistic regression, with {brms}, Kruschke and I could use your help. This is your chance to influence the upcomming textbook. discourse.mc-stan.org/t/problem-in...

All my #rstats ebooks are now in the quarto format, and hosted on Quarto Pub. Their old bookdown links will all be dead by the weekend. 1/3

Comparing registrations to published papers is essential to research integrity - and almost no one does it routinely because it's slow, messy, and time-demanding. RegCheck was built to help make this process easier. Today, we launch RegCheck V2. 🧵 regcheck.app

Missing data, DAG, #stats folk: There was a paper that explained missing data mechanism w/ DAGs, showing they're equivalent to conditioning on collider &/or ignoring confounding.. It was a simple paper for dummies (like me!) but earching for papers I've only found scary c-DAG and m-DAG stuff...😨

The 0.5.0 version of my {brms} + {tidyverse} translation of McElreath's "Statistical Rethinking" (2nd ed) is up! solomon.quarto.pub/sr2/ 1/3 #rstats