They're going to crash the global economy by attempting to create an artificial general intelligence, despite having no idea what that is, no proof they can build it & no hope of doing so. Cunts just read too many sci-fi books.

Everyone involved in scientific publishing should take a look at these papers. >"The domination of scientific publishing in the Global North by major commercial publishers is harmful to science; we need [...] to re-communalise publishing to serve science not the market."

Two-group pre/post data are deceptively simple, and you could analyze them in many different ways, depending on your goals. Here are three blog posts on the topic: solomonkurz.netlify.app/blog/2022-06... solomonkurz.netlify.app/blog/2020-12... solomonkurz.netlify.app/blog/2023-06...

“…the net worth of the 10 richest US billionaires grew by $698bn in the past year. That money alone, the increment in the wealth of 10 people, is almost 10 times the annual amount required to end extreme poverty worldwide.” www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

Meta earns $3.5 billion every six months from showing Faceboon and Instagram users 15 billion “higher legal risk” scam ad impressions a day, internal documents state. That haul vastly exceeds how much the company expects regulators To fine it for running scam ads. www.reuters.com/investigatio...

Waiting for a new work Mac, I’m using an M1 Air 2020 which only has 4 high performance cores. Running some tests in R, the Air is twice as fast when using only 4 cores compared to using 8 cores (including the high efficiency cores).

I was just notified of another paper citing our paper as validating the Swedish PSS-4, when we actually conclude that it should not be used. What was even more surprising was that one of my coauthors on the psychometrics paper was also a coauthor on the paper. Not sure what to do with this.

AI has an "emperor has no clothes" problem where people imagine there are geniuses who will inevitably achieve breakthroughs with enough cash. AI is bottlenecked by limits in data availability, statistical mechanics, & computing. Improvements will be expensive & incremental, not fundamental.

Forced to deal with Microsoft Outlook/etc at work, I constantly find the default settings to be annoying/stupid. I wonder if they ever gather data to understand user preferences or just make assumptions. Or am I the outlier?

I'm now also looking for a postdoc with strong Bayesian background and interest in developing Bayesian cross-validation theory, methods and software. Apply by email with no specific deadline (see contact information at users.aalto.fi/~ave/). Others, please share

New release of PowerLMM.js! Browser-based power analysis for longitudinal models with dropout. Now includes: - Power analysis summary report - Reproducible & shareable configs (URL/JSON) - Calculations validated against R - Hypothesis region visualization powerlmmjs.rpsychologist.com

🎉 @rpsychologist.com 's PowerLMM.js is the online statistics application of the year 2025 🎉 powerlmmjs.rpsychologist.com - Calculate power (etc) for multilevel models - Examine effects of dropout and other important parameters - Fast! (Instant results)

in my post-academic era i have become extremely scathing of the way academia considers papers to the primary outcome of intellectual work, and refuses to give credit to academics who write software or build other tooling. in industry we very rarely read your papers; but we always use your software

We wrote an article explaining why you shouldn't put several variables into a regression model and report which are statistically significant - even as exploratory research. bmjmedicine.bmj.com/content/4/1/.... How did we do?

I've done some more work on the relative measurement uncertainty, comparing `brms` posterior draws to "plausible values" in Rasch models, and some other reliability metrics. Estimating RMU from draws adds some variation, as shown in the figure. pgmj.github.io/reliability.... #rstats #psychometrics

Anthony Biglan's "The Nurture Effect" shines a light on how we can intentionally design better societies. It's about building upstream prevention and fostering nurturing environments. What are your thoughts? snapt.io/CUHnJ #SocialScience #CommunityDevelopment #Prevention Image: Vectzeey

Largest study of its kind shows AI assistants misrepresent news content 45% of the time – regardless of language or territory. www.bbc.co.uk/mediacentre/...

this tweet turns 10 today 🎂🥳

Against Publishing: universonline.nl/nieuws/2025/... Preprints are read, shared, and cited, yet still dismissed as incomplete until blessed by a publisher. I argue that the true measure of scholarship lies in open exchange, not in the industry’s gatekeeping of what counts as published.

Very useful extension! I used an earlier version in this paper: pgmj.github.io/rasch_itemfit/

I agree. #openscience combined with #opensource software is great!

This is really neat. I have borrowed the reliability() function to my `easyRasch` package, and use plausible values instead of fully Bayesian estimation to produce similar estimates/CIs, see code example below. RMU point estimates are similar to EAP reliability. pgmj.github.io/easyRasch/re...

I really really really liked The Oatmeal’s take on AI here theoatmeal.com/comics/ai_art

”AI isn't going to wake up, become superintelligent and turn you into paperclips – but rich people with AI investor psychosis are almost certainly going to make you much, much poorer.” pluralistic.net/2025/09/27/e...

#statstab #432 PsychOpen Gold Thoughts: instead of submitting to greedy and unhelpful publishers, try this list of fully open and free journals in psychology. #OpenScience #openaccess #apcs #goldaccess #pedagogy psychopen.eu

Love this paper by Hinne doi.org/10.1177/2515... but curious why BMA isn't compatible with competing theories: "BMA is less useful when...each candidate model may represent a different theory of a physical process...the models are not a nuisance factor; they are the focus of the analysis." #statsky

Exceptional Doctorow piece on the solar rollout, why it's unstoppable, & why many old downsides of solar aren't factors anymore. The entire material mining needed 4 a global solar transition = only 17% of the fossil fuel mining we do every year! & then we're done! doctorow.medium.com/https-plural...

My article "Data is not available upon request" was published in Meta-Psychology. Very happy to see this out! open.lnu.se/index.php/me...

100% this, especially with Wiley given their anti-preprint stance.

Interesting paper on how software could help analysts. ”Causal clarity in statistical software” (Korf et al., 2025). I like many of the ideas, such as clarifying estimand, using multiple estimators, and no output of coefficients for adjustment variables doi.org/10.1093/ije/... #stats #rstats

I'm exited to announce a new resource about making slides with quarto and revealjs. This book is the combination of all the work I have done in this area, reordered and polished up There isn't a lot of new information yet, but this format allows me to add more easily slidecrafting-book.com #quarto

I hope Melvin Bragg's retirement will not end In Our Times. He has a lovely voice and manner but it's the people he invites that hold the show. I'll take this chance to post a thread of some of the more memorable episodes for me. Starting with Schaffer, Worrall, and @michelamassimi.bsky.social

Indeed, and since data is always collected within a known time-frame, there is also a known upper bound, which count models generally do not respect. The impact of ignoring the upper bound (and potential one-inflation) will of course depend on the distribution.

For instance, yesterday I read a paper with a table describing participants' sickness absence days with a mean of 71 and SD = 88. Generating a random (gaussian) sample using these values produces ~20% participants with less than zero sick days.

My impression is that papers in psychology often seem to assume all variables are gaussian and well described by mean/SD as summary stats. Having actually looked at a lot of data distributions in psych has made me a proponent of Tukey’s `fivenumber()` summary statistics.

The Disney brand, and the USA brand, sinking together. Parody from Dutch TV www.youtube.com/watch?v=7vRX...

Wonderfully snarky title.

Most point estimates of reliability have two main problems. One is that they typically describe properties of a sample, not a measure. Then they make it seem like reliability is a constant across the continuum measured, which is unlikely.

Skimming a recent psychometric paper on the Perceived Stress Scale, 4-item version. Authors find 2 factors needed to fit the data, but still go ahead and use the ordinal sum score from all 4 items in various follow-up tests. Where does this practice come from? #psychometrics

been saying this for years: stop using academia[.]edu. This is real bad folks.

Whoa—my book is up for pre-order! 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐥 𝐭𝐨 𝐌𝐞𝐚𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠: 𝐇𝐨𝐰 𝐭𝐨 𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐭 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐭 & 𝐌𝐋 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐥𝐬 𝐢𝐧 #Rstats 𝐚𝐧𝐝 #PyData The book presents an ultra-simple and powerful workflow to make sense of ± any model you fit The web version will stay free forever and my proceeds go to charity. tinyurl.com/4fk56fc8

This is a paper I really care about. I feel the core message is very important for social scientists in general, and political scientists in particular. "Quantitative Research in Political Science is Greatly Underpowered." (with A+ co-authors)

This should have been big news! Ten funding agencies from eight European countries have pledged to support a public infrastructure that is poised to replace academic journals: FWF 🇦🇹 RCN 🇳🇴 Forte 🇸🇪 ARIS 🇸🇮 SRC 🇸🇪 FCT 🇵🇹 CSIC 🇪🇸 DFG 🇩🇪 Formas 🇸🇪 ANR 🇫🇷 Only two of them issued press releases in […]

Matching the Forbes 400 to tax data finds that they pay a total tax rate of 24 percent of economic income, lower than the 30 percent tax rate paid on average in the US, from Akcan S. Balkir, Emmanuel Saez, Danny Yagan, and Gabriel Zucman https://www.nber.org/papers/w34170

What to do with academic publishing: youtu.be/XmttiQnlJfw?... - Support open communication platforms - Support "publish, review, curate" communications I'd also add: - Get angry - Recognize that business as usual (submit to El$evier et al) is not value-free - Stop reviewing for big pub

Preprint and the website by @dingdingpeng.the100.ci and @vincentab.bsky.social are great, and I got inspired to illustrate Bayesian workflow for model checking and comparison *before* model interpretation following their friendship importance example users.aalto.fi/~ave/casestu...

What if we thought about digital behaviour not in terms of the form that it takes but the psychological functions that it serves? In this preprint we introduce technological behaviourism, a theoretical approach grounded in operant conditioning. @shuhbillskee.bsky.social

Everyone should follow this lead. Incredibly simple to switch with minimal friction. #linux

#statstab #405 Best Practices for Estimating, Interpreting, and Presenting Nonlinear Interaction Effects Thoughts: Guidance on nonlinear interactions, reporting (probabilities) and visualisations. #probit #logit #logisticregression #nonlinear #guide sociologicalscience.com/download/vol...