Here it comes! 🍂

Who robbed the Louvre? Right answers only

Not sure the folks at NBC/Peacock thought this one through

Just an 85kt subgeostrophic wind off the California coast.

In my backyard and home state. I expect that the shoreline of the OBX historically moved much more than it has in the past 40ish years

📥Got your #AMS2026 abstract acceptance letter? Share the news and your research with the weather, water, and climate community! Download social media graphics, PowerPoint templates, and more from our social media toolkit: https://bit.ly/4nG3qH0

We have a breakdown or "classification" of the whole spectrum of possible outcomes of the Fujiwhara Effect, ranging from an elastic interaction to a complete merger, in this 2003 paper: "A Classification of Binary Tropical Cyclone–Like Vortex Interactions" journals.ametsoc.org/downloadpdf/...

Super interesting

Come work with our group and bring exciting new fire weather technologies from research to operations at the NOAA Fire Weather Testbed: jobs.colostate.edu/postings/166...

Put another way, from today onwards we typically only lack 25% of the annual activity in the Atlantic (We’re usually around 90 ACE, finishing at 120 ACE)

My friend and former colleague at UWM, Sergey Kravtsov, is looking to hire *two* postdoctoral fellows, one in climate dynamics and the other in data-driven modeling for global precipitation. Please see the advertisements below for more details and share with your networks!

So excited to see a former colleague in Chile featured in the NYT🇨🇱 www.nytimes.com/2025/09/12/w...

I just bought 20 entries at $5/each in the Florida Fish & Wildlife Conservation Commission's lottery for 187 bear hunting permits. I have no intention to go hunting, if you catch my drift. See how we can try to keep the tags out of hunters' hands. Instructions in the re-post below 👇🏼

Want to work with @draaronhill.bsky.social and me on cutting-edge S2S research involving AI and extreme weather? Want to work on real-world applications and work alongside a private sector company? Check out this advert from @draaronhill.bsky.social and email us for more information!

This graphic has been around for a while, but in case you haven’t seen it yet, I’m reposting

It has now been 29 years since a major hurricane (category 3 or stronger) has made landfall in North Carolina. Here's a look back at Hurricane Fran: specne.ws/2YMKQV #ncwx

Cool to see your name on the discussion, @drmetwatch.bsky.social, with the talented @pppapin.bsky.social !

We asked Americans about 16 federal agencies. The National Park Service and National Weather Service were among the most favorable. www.pewresearch.org/...

“This study supports both: 1) the idea that large shear or buoyancy can compensate for lack of the other for the production of significant hail, and 2) the association of long hodographs with large-hail events.”

Okay weather folks, a new NOAA/aviation question. Does anyone have experience pulling the NOTAMs issued by the G-IVs prior to their storm flights?

PICO sessions at @egu.eu - a snapshot of what dust scientists think. Are they better or worse than orals and posters? Are they more popular with junior scientists? New @unirdg-met.bsky.social Meteorology Department blog: Who's up for a PICO? blogs.reading.ac.uk/weather-and-...

Thoughts and prayers @climatologist49.bsky.social

🚨I’m recruiting 1-2 PhD students for my Air Quality Data Science 🌐 group @utah.edu (start Fall ’26), working on multimodal machine learning applications for atmospheric chemistry (wildfires, ozone, dust). How to apply below. Please repost & ping me with recommendations!

Bit of a bifurcation in the track ensembles for Lorena EP12, with majority of EC members staying west, about 1/3 of the Google DeepMind ensembles into Baja California, and about half the GEFS members into Baja. Consequences for SW US rains GEFS and DM members have trended more westward today, FWIW

Hurricane forecasts are now much more accurate, 20 years on — largely because of federal government research.

Yesterday I showed Google DeepMind errors for Erin. Thought I'd repeat the analysis for 2025 as a whole, and add the HCCA corrected consensus to the mix. Sample is mainly Erin, of course. GDMI has been impressive so far, especially through 72 h and for intensity. (EMXI not in live NHC FTP data.)

This is such a well-deserved honor for a great scientist, teacher, and person.

Humbled to have been recognized by my colleagues and friends for work to bring us together as a community! Doesn’t matter whether you’re Latino, Hispanic, white, black, red, brown whatever, where you live and work and where you were born and raised means that your experiance matters!

Missed the @ametsoc.org webinar on new careers at @nws.noaa.gov? The recording is now available! 🔗 youtu.be/cq50pM_-hD4?... Topics: ✅ 2-page resumes ✅ Essays ✅ Assessments ✅ Docs & tips ✅ Live Q&A 💼 Current NOAA/NWS openings: www.usajobs.gov/search/resul... #Hiring #Meteorology #Hydrology

Stunning satellite view showing the incredible size of Hurricane Erin this morning

The only hurricanes in the satellite era with pressures as low as Erin's but below Category 3 winds are Maria (2017), Irma (2017), Sandy (2012), Igor (2010), and Gloria (1985). Erin in ultra-elite company as far as large, powerful hurricanes go. Spectacular sight on satellite.

Hurricane Erin’s substantial wind-field expansion over the past four days.

Make a band food: Dixie Chicken Nuggets (later renamed the Nugs)

Tomorrow will be 2 months since the summer solstice. Here's how much daylight has been lost.

Extreme heat in the Caribbean today, Heat Indexes 100-115. There are still ~30,000 customers without power in Puerto Rico from Hurricane Erin, where there is an Extreme Heat Warning.

#erin is a creeper! The track has crept ~450 miles further west than the model consensus since the Storm developed. Still not a bad forecast for a storm that has traveled ~3500 miles. Still the size/ intensity of Erin will bring significant impacts to coastal NC. Image via Tomer Burg

It’s been a busy few months at the national centers! At least one of the convective (SPC) or rainfall (WPC) outlooks has been at Slight or higher since 21 April

In loops like these, I find myself thinking how the NWS could’ve still be using the WSR-57 technology 25+ years later Then I remember how we’re still using the WSR-88D thirty-seven years after 1988. (Yes, the technology has improved, but the architecture is the same!)

This is my favorite Substack! High quality, and it’s free!

Hurricane Erin’s radius of maximum wind (RMW) continues to contract as it intensifies & is down to 21 km. Alongside a favorable short term environment, this indicates Erin is on the verge of a rapid intensification episode.

At this time, it looks like Hurricane Erin should pass off the East Coast of the US as it moves northward... That being said, the rip current threat will be increasing along the coast in the coming days. Important information from the NWS and NOAA. #SpectrumNews1 #ncwx #HurricaneErin2025 #NOAA

#Erin became a hurricane on August 15, which is nine days later than the median date over the past fifty years. There's only a slight trend over that time period in earlier first hurricane dates, but rarely does one form before July 1. bmcnoldy.blogspot.com/2025/08/erin...

#Erin becomes a #hurricane, the first of the 2025 season. On average the first hurricane of the season forms around August 11th. Parts of the northern Leeward Islands are under a Tropical Storm Watch. The core of Erin is expected to pass north of the islands this weekend. #wx

Erin strengthens, becoming the first hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic Season. This hi-res view shows several lightning flashes within an intensifying storm.

#Erin becomes the first Atlantic hurricane of the 2025 season 🌀

This is a prototype of NSHARP that cross compiles to MacOS, Windows, Linux, and... the web browser! It just decoded and displayed NWS and IMET upper air BUFR sounding files at full, 1 HZ resolution (4-6k vertical levels) interactively, in real time. No runtime loading of BUFR tables needed!

Hurricane models, including HAFS-B and COAMPS-TC, are insistent that Erin will commence a period of rapid intensification soon. (1/)

I invite you to watch this webinar organized by Friends of NOAA regarding the impacts of the cuts to the agency. You'll need a passcode: d6xyr&^E us06web.zoom.us/rec/share/43...

Strong convection with #Erin into sunset. Some nice gravity waves in there! Now that it's broken the stability cap and can generate convection, it's now trying to fight the easterly shear. If it can do this, we'll see an inner core form and a strengthening trend

Finally pushed a full 1.0.0 (not release candidate) to PyPI and conda-forge. This also means that: mamba install sharplib conda install sharplib Work now (assuming you have conda-forge set as your primary channel). There is also now a Dask/Xarray/kerchunk example notebook for HRRR data!