The jet stream and 93L interaction in two days will lead to a lot of upper-level divergence on the north side of the storm. These are calculations from GFS data. 🧵

In our current 30-year climatological period (1991-2020), the Atlantic is tied for the record low number of hurricanes to date. Neat, but nothing to scream about. If you look at just the last 30 years (1995-2024), this is the longest the Atlantic has gone without 2 hurricanes. smoothedweather.com

Gabrielle is giving it another go tonight.

Teaching hand map analysis with upper air is just sadder than it was last year. It's harder to draw the ridge in the northwest if the data doesn't exist.

No more universal experience than paying for paper towels and later realizing it’s toilet paper.

Clearest graph I’ve seen about social media influence. This was cited by @gelliottmorris.com in his Strength in Numbers blog about political violence. open.substack.com/pub/gelliott...

Epitome of false advertising! (They are quite good though.)

The Atlantic tropical season has gone from ahead of to behind pace for progress in number of TCs and ACE. In the heart of the season, climatology has the most slope and any lull seems dramatic. Then again, climatology has that slope for a reason, right? We'll take the pause; season ain't over.

Chelsea Women began their season on Friday. My season expectations: How can the expectation be anything other than at least making the Champions League final with a justifiable hope at winning it? We'll see if we can beat Barcelona.

Student: “I was just shy of two weeks old when Hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans.” Reminds me I need to share another edition of “college students’ age during big events.”

Oh good, the NYT confirmed he’s alive. Glad that conspiracy got sorted. Can we not do that level of conspiracy theory again?

Happy Fall to all who celebrate!! 🍂🍁

Chelsea FC micro-takes: The home Chelsea radio commentators couldn't believe the team was up 2-0 as they had played so poorly. But the stats were all in Chelsea's favor. We may never know the truth. smoothedweather.com/consideratio...

I don’t think grabbing onto “I bet he’s secretly dead” is a good version of fighting fire with fire.

Made a map of TC “shorties,” since I’d never seen one before. Mostly, the TCs either quickly make landfall or travel over cooler water. The tracks ending in the eastern Caribbean “graveyard” are notable, too. Red are this year’s 3 shorties so far. smoothedweather.com/tropical/

I've loved my two years at @carbonplan.org, but my position has been eliminated and I'm looking for work again. I think my ideal situation would be writing or editing science/climate feature articles. Throwing out the net wider, but that's the dream. Please holler if you know of anything.

Another way to visualize sondes rotating to other quadrants in smaller eyes is on a map. You can see the normal flight path into #Erin in the "X" path while the sondes they drop along the way rotate cyclonically around the <5km pinhole eye.

I've finally updated my website to start to include plots that always deserved a home on the web. smoothedweather.com I'm most motivated to create the operational plots I wish existed, especially if they support the course material I teach. So hopefully it helps other professors as well.

We're basically on pace for number of Atlantic tropical storms over the past 30 years.

14 hours with no solar wind data. DSCOVR has been MIA for months, and ACE just decided to glitch out (it sometimes does)… We’re flying blind now and have no real-time solar wind data source. SWFO-L1 is launching in October at least and will likely be operational by March ‘26.

Here's the most rapid intensification that's happened in the prior 12 hours on a 5 degree grid over the Atlantic using 6-hr HURDAT data. Can see how far east Erin's 4th-ranked 55mb/12h was although ultra-rapid rates do have some level of precedence this far east (Lee, 2023).

Sure do remember this one. Challenging drive to work in the dark not understanding the magnitude of the beast. Brown ocean effect I presume. #okwx

Pro tip: If you don’t want the obnoxious, often inaccurate “AI Overview” that nobody asked for with every Google search, add the tag -AR to the end of your search. E.g. “Hurricane Erin -AR”

These would have made nice planters

Another obvious sign #Erin is rapidly intensifying this morning is the temperature obs on board the NOAA-P3 aircraft. The rapidly rising temps in the #eye create a dewpoint depression (i.e, clearing). Aided by increased eye subsidence as the #major #hurricane mixes dry stratosphere above.

Calm on the left, hurricane winds on the right!

#Hurricane #Erin has just become a Category 5 hurricane (140 kt / 917 mb). Earliest known occurrence of Cat 5 in open Atlantic (outside Caribbean & Gulf). Rapid Intensification (+75 kt in 24h!) To illustrate how remarkable this period of #RI has been check out this WV 18 hour animation below ⤵️

Intensifying 34mb in a single 4 hour reconnaissance flight is, uh, well that qualifies as Rapid Deepening. A 64mb drop in 24 hours (prior to the 18z update about to come out) is impressive. #Erin

This looks to be the third Erin to become a hurricane but stay out to sea. For a certain group of meteorologists, the most dramatic of these was the 2007 tropical storm and "low." The synoptic history in the TC report is worth a read. www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL0...

Hurricane hunter aircraft from the Air Force and NOAA are on their way to Barbados in preparation for missions into TS Erin.

While writing in StackOverflow what I had done, I realized I actually hadn't done the step I had just written. And that fixed my issue. Turns out the files with the code needs to be there for the thing to work. Who knew!

On the one hand, our tropical system is developing well. On the other hand, it’s still closer to Africa than the other side of the Atlantic. …

Been hearing the term “cloudburst” a lot the last ~2 months. Never heard it before. Is this a new trendy wx word? Have I been under a rock? Is my IG algo anchoring on this term? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Kitty says “Go away storms!”

Yes! More meteorologists are needed in Congress. I gave a generous donation, which Sean has promised to put to good use by raising public awareness on climate change, threats to NOAA, science, and education.

live look at me seeing the first of two Ologies episodes on hurricanes being dropped (Link for context: www.alieward.com/ologies/temp...)

When I tell you I had a lot of fun doing this, I mean it. Legit fun and great questions.

Hey wx folks, some of our own on a very fun podcast this week. Go a head and give it a listen. Dad Ward always provides excellent content

Happy CSU seasonal tropical cyclone forecast release day to all who celebrate.

Ohhhh so THAT is what’s up with all the panic stricken Act Blue and “Hey it’s your personal friend Ilhan Walz” texts. I knew it was scammy. It didn’t occur to me it was a scam perpetuated by former Dem insiders.

Some flights diverting away from Hawaii as Hawaii is now in a tsunami warning after a M8.7 earthquake near the Kamchatka Peninsula. Hawaiian airports are open at the moment. www.flightradar24.com/multiview/3b...

People dunking on folks in North Dakota searching up info on the tsunami are IMO missing the point. Not exactly a big threat are tsunami for the Dakotas. I’m not mad this isn’t top of mind. And I’m low key thrilled folks heard something they thought might be dangerous and searched for more info.

#Breaking: Just got off the phone with a NOAA spokesperson. DOD has stated that SSMIS microwave scans will be made available to NOAA through the end of the satellites’ lifespan and until the replacement instrument’s data comes online.

🚨🚨 I've independently confirmed with @NOAA that they received a late-breaking notice from @DeptofDefense that SSMIS data will continue to flow for the remainder of the lifespan of the satellites. I will be updating my reporting shortly. Here is the official NOAA statement 👇

Fantastic reporting on the state of microwave satellite imagery.

Looks to me like the system off the FL coast has separated middle and lower level centers as it drifts onshore. But I admit I’m out of practice at analyzing these things.

I feel like some training modules should require 100% on the final assessment. Some training is just more important than others.

Chelsea FC won the Club World Cup! Unlike the Thunder, Chelsea had no business winning this competition but it’s always great collecting trophies!

Of 2020 population, 49.9% voted for the same party in 2020 & 2024. Only 3.1% switched who they voted for. But 4.8% & 3.2% went from D & R voters to not voting, while 4.6% & 5.3% went from not voting to D & R voters. Campaigns got 26% of the non-voting pool to vote. It’s not about independents.

The secret German weather station on the Arctic island of Svalbard. Part of the 'Weather War'. The team, led by Lieutenant Wilhelm Dege, were the last German troops to surrender in WW2, finally doing so FOUR MONTHS after Germany had officially surrendered. It was not for want of trying. /1