The overnight World Cup lesson is that sucking up to egos probably shouldn't end well.

Striking! The range of solutions tightening up - note how the lower bound of, for example, Sept 2026 is up from 1.9ish to about 2.5...

1878-2026 (148 yr) Daily Central England Max Temp series again... In 2026, if our climate was entirely random, you'd expect 365 / 148 = ~2.5 daily records to be broken. How does that look in reality over time? Many more recent years are well above "expected" levels: our climate isn't random.

11 out of the 185 days so far in 2026 have had a record Central England Maximum Temperature... Mar (1), Apr (2), May (4), Jun (4).

First thunderstorms just kicking off over Mexico City: just when the mooted midday kick-off would have ended...

June saw the highest ever temperatures recorded (for June) in the UK. Overall it was England's warmest ever. Overall it was sunny in England and duller in Scotland. The start of the month was cooler and wetter however. Here is the climate/weather for the past year. #climatechange #globalwamring

@karlstanley.bsky.social A warm welcome guaranteed I'm sure.

The higher maxima that Ed refers to shown up nicely in the Central Maximum England Temperature trace contrasting 1976 and 2026. Note also Mar-May and how much warmer 2026 has been. Of the 122 days from Mar-Jun, 2026 has had 83 warmer CET days than 1976...

So whereas 1976 had a hot June, in the grand scheme of things using this CET Excess of 0c to measure the warmth broadly, it really was quite an average year taking in Jan-Jun warmth, whereas 2026 is top of the charts...(and 1976 ended up average, too).

Maximum Central England Temps in 2026 are striking. Showing monthly "excess temperature above 0c", climatology 1976-2025. Mar, Apr, May and Jun 2026 *ALL* in the top 10th percentile, although not top-ranked (top ranks: 2012, 2011, 1992, 2023 respectively). 1976: June was hot but other months: nope!

Been attempting a daily ONI/RONI using the prior 20 years' same-day-of-year data as the climatology. Subject to QA but the ONI/RONI has gone all coy in June and flattened off...

Here's a look at numerous individual weather stations across a swathe of England + Wales, comparing the maximum temperature recorded during June 2026 with the whole of summer 1976 – in some cases temperatures were over 4°C hotter in the recent heatwave 🌡️ bsky.app/profile/meto...

The whole daily mean UK CET record. 1st and 99th %iles computed, then plotting how many days per year (within each decade) do days <1st %ile and >99th %ile occur. This allows analysis of the occurrence of the extremes), styled like the population pyramids I remember from GSCE Geography. #RStats

Delighted to have had my Visiting Research Fellow position renewed again at the Dept of Meteorology at University of Reading where I spent 7 very enjoyable years from 18-25. Hopefully a couple of papers to come in the next couple of months too so I can pay a little more back !

As for the whole cumulative CET year put together ... well enough said.

After a very middling month compared to the last 30 years' CET, June's heatwave means we're now ticking along nicely in terms of the "Cumulative Central England Temperature above zero celsius" - 98th percentile much like May...

ECMWF is doing that thing again where the operational run sits at the top end of the ensembles: it did it for the last hot spell just past... will it be right again?

For all the over-land effects, it's interesting to note the sea impact of this year's hot spells in the UK. Most recent OISST data comes with a "tbc" usually but for a short while the suggestion is that the sea over SE England recently was more akin to the last 20 years' late August average peak.

"We shall miss your warmth and crackle". The end of the line for Long Wave radio in the UK. Growing up in the 80s on thundery days I would occasionally listen in to LW radio to see if there were any "crackles" around. www.instagram.com/reel/DaEeLQa...

What, like Freedom of Movement around Europe?

Climate.us is live. Built by members of the team behind Climate.gov, this new independent nonprofit website keeps trusted climate information easy to find, easy to use, and harder to erase. #ClimateForUs #ClimateUS

As soon as the latest hot spell starts to think about winding itself down, the EC ensembles are picking out 40c in extremis towards the end of the run... (London gridpoint shown). Would love to see a study (probably done already!) that talks to operational ensemble frequency of T>40c.

The old adage is "When the US sneezes, Britain catches a cold" - feels like the other way round in this case: this time last week we were saying similar about ensemble mean temperatures for the UK looking remarkably high.

All these sites with over 30 years of observations have set all-time, not just June, maximum temperature records in this hot spell.

And for what it's worth, all the EGLL (Heathrow) data I could find: June 2026's dewpoints at high temperature a real jump up on history. We see a lot of concentration of future / present "T" potential in the face of climate change, but very little "Td" and their compounding impacts (if at all).

I've always found Lakenheath anomalously warm (for a good or a bad reason, I don't know) - but wonder if this will be accepted for the record if they do happen to top the charts? (Appreciate this is rounded to the nearest deg c)

Picked a random warm station from today - RAF Fairford - with a caveat of incomplete data back to 1952 - just to show how unprecedently humid things are at these high temperatures. Dewpoints are around 8c higher than seen before for dry-bulb temperatures > 34c or so.

Not really sure how anyone slept in Cardiff last night.

Londoners, there is a webpage for you to see where your nearest "cool spaces" are when the extreme heat hits - places with water, air-conditioning & shade. Have a look and spread the word, especially to those who may need this but might not think to look for it: apps.london.gov.uk/cool-spaces/

Thinking of fellow folks who have elderly, frail (in my case nonagenarian) parents who are at such high risk over the next few days: the stress around which (especially when a thousand miles away on holiday) rather nullifies the content hyperbolefest of breaking temperature records.

UK cumulative Central England Temperature in excess of freezing compared to the last 40 years (with the percentile at the end of the month in red numbering). After 90th and 98th percentile in April and May, respectively, let's see what number June ends up on...

I keep seeing charts like this: whether it's an SST or a surface temperature. In these charts I'd love to wind the clock back to the same chart for the time when the record jumped this much. Might be able to find it but a record jumping this much so "out-of-season" seems freakish. Sign of the times.

I really hope the Makerfield election result is through more and more people cottoning on to tactical voting. The Greens probably could have got a bigger chunk here but would have been at the expense of Labour. Repeat this in 2029 and I have hope for the UK even if it leads to a hung parliament.

ECMWF main run is 38.3c on Tuesday: 6c above ensemble mean. Treat it as an outlier? Treat it that it knows something more with its higher resolution? Does it have previous at calling extreme heat better than lower res ensembles? Good example of why the man-machine mix in forecasting is so important.

"Guys, I think we're gonna need a log scale"

Under 16s to be banned from social media, and a white supremacist who fuels riots on our streets, still allowed to run a whole platform.

My Sunday writing ... A deep dive on an interesting partnership as extreme weather threatens the insurance industry and YOUR rates www.forbes.com/sites/marsha...

I notice that replying to emails with 'reactions' is seemingly normal now and everything can just get the in sea and go to hell.

A marine heatwave around the British Isles could have contributed to the UK's record 35.1C heatwave on land last month, according to scientists. Story feat @oceanterra.org & @noc.ac.uk 👇 www.thetimes.com/uk/environme...

Farage is a fascist agitator attempting to overthrow the established order by violent means.

@norcrosscricket.bsky.social Doubt you'll be reading on comms but nothing much upwind for the time being, assuming more showers don't break out.... FAMOUS LAST WORDS

This for me is the Big Hurdle for AI forecasts: predicting extremes in warming world when they're not necessarily trained with them. Promising...

This champ disabled replies & posts so I'm here to say that no, no it's not "everything we warned you about for decades", it's a graph of SSTs in the Nino 3.4 region that shows that temperatures are a bit higher that usual ahead of a further warmer. I'm all for sensible discussion, not melodrama.

OK so here's some explanation given that chart below blew up for no reason. Here's the same data with 4 strongest El Nino years for Aug-Oct: 1982, 1987, 1997, 2015. It's interesting that we might have a 0.5c head start on these years as the SSTs potentially warm. End of story.

I appear to have started a weird hand-wringing competition purely by flagging up how the ENSO 3.4 region has warmed in the last few days or so.

OK so is it safe to say that "something is happening" ?!

A powerful El Niño Event is expected to develop during 2026. How powerful? Well the seasonal forecasting models are currently all over the place. So, somewhere between a Top 10 event in modern history and super-bonkers extreme crazy land. 🤔 🧪🌊

I've just been interviewed by The Athletic about working from The Oval. I hope I've not incriminated myself...

Open question - should everyone use the same ENSO index to save all the ONI / RONI juggling? If more are using RONI now, is ONI kept on for historic (hyperbolic!) purposes or do the two together serve a purpose?

Now that we've reached early June, Autumn has kicked in and the leaves are starting to turn, I'm pining for those high summer days of late May when it was 20c warmer.