Quite impressed that the ECMWF ensemble maximum temperature *mean* is 31.7c let alone the ensemble maximum being 34c...

This must be a confusing read for Reform voters.

Saw the newspaper report around how properties in UK are becoming not fit for purpose in summer & how aircon should be standard. House I grew up was built in 1962. If we use the prior 20 years as "climatology" for the building of that house, it's a different world today: 4x the >30c days now.

Ensemble maximum temperature for the next 15 days in SE England. Appreciate these are low probability, but an interesting view nonetheless...

My latest screed on the besieged state of U.S. science. I connect it to a broader phenomenon, namely willful blindness to the value of government-supplied public goods. deepconvection.substack.com/p/wrecking-t...

Once again bringing you answers to *all* of the important questions.

Had a bit of fun looking at shifts in snow depth in the US following this winter's snows... see what you think! oakglobal.com/news/winter-...

Thanks JP Morgan, that's a major cat event guaranteed.

From now until it peaks, I feel as though anyone posting an ENSO chart needs to a) clarify what the climatology that the anomaly is based upon is and b) when it's Relative ONI or an ONI index. Or everyone adopt the same calculation and contrast it historically to the same calculation.

When I reach the end of career, I'll do so proudly in the knowledge I've never signed off an email with "Best". Best is an adjective. You can't leave it hanging there without a noun, surely?

Don’t miss our @egu.eu session ‘Physical Climate risk assessment for the financial and insurance sectors’ Thur May 7th, orals 8:30 - 15:45 in room D1🟪, posters 16:15-18:00 in X3🟪 @mattpriestley.bsky.social, A. Ciullo, @hcbloomfield19.bsky.social, @natalieslord.bsky.social @riskkan.bsky.social

Looks like (using the daily method below - that needs QAing) that we're in El Nino from both ONI and RONI standpoints...

It's not often you sit on a train where, like you, two people are tweaking code and presentations. Welcome to the 1738 from Munich to Vienna for the EGU...

Having a bit of fun looking at RONI/ONI indices but with a climatology that uses the prior 30 years but only the same day of the year rather than 3-monthly data with fixed climo. ONI appears to have edged into El Nino now; RONI playing it cool but nearly there [calculations subject to QA...!]

@karlstanley.bsky.social It's the shunning of European/Mediterranean diets now we're out of Europe in favour of good old British pies and pastries that's done it. A nice healthy Greek salad? No: foreign muck. Try this scotch egg. bsky.app/profile/eber...

How it started vs. One decade later

Imagine being the parents of the Fitzpatricks right now. You'd be absolutely bursting with pride. What a lovely moment.

Appreciate this will have a niche audience of around 2 people. But hey, it's all good fun isn't it?

Also noting how the difference between Deal and London in March and April has become accentuated over time, viz:

I finally snapped and wanted to understand which months have the biggest Kent E Coast disparity with London. It didn't surprise me to learn it's April-May-June...

As you do, I've worked out the most calorific meal you could have as a 3-course meal in a Wetherspoons. In my local in Deal it's £23.44 for 3950 calories. And then a lie-down, for about 2 days.

The tragic radicalisation of an ex-England footballer

LinkedIn once again aceing my obvious desire for a new job (this is my last job, full stop) and also career change.

Ban this sick filth; it's late April for goodness' sake.

A great read (bias as an Associate Editor of said publication notwithstanding).

Slumped on the sofa with chest infection. How do you get better? By calculating RONI using moving climatology of the same day of the year for the last 30 years, of course. Anyhow: that ONI is ticking up towards 0.5; RONI keeping it a little more in perspective...(subject to quality control).

In Korea, when the president declared martial law after midnight and erected barricades in Seoul, congressional reps from all parties ran into the streets, yanked ak47s from the army at the barricades, broke down the locked door to Congress, repealed the martial law order, and arrested the president

Well there's a novel bot account. Avatar of attractive lady who seems to have a thing for Richards. Straight into the bozo bin...

Now we're talking

Big ENSO numbers, but would be interested to see this a) from the Relative ONI perspective and with a more standard (1991-2020?) anomaly base? If anyone knows whether someone already is doing this for the C3S / ECMWF seasonal forecasts, I'd be interested to see the link !

Is the "we've nearly completed our mission in Iran" the new "I can end the Ukraine war in 24 hours"?

If you're working in the climate science space, please sign and share this open letter calling out the insanity of exploiting more oil & gas when we need to eradicate dangerous fossil fuels. Letter here: docs.google.com/document/d/1... Sign here: forms.gle/DexNszLJjaRe... Pls share far & wide!

One of those days in Deal today. Fortunate showing friends around to miss a couple of properly chunky showers.

Reform once again trying the Trump playbook. We can't possibly have lost!

One more: here's the top 16 days with anomalous warmth in the US since around 1997 - based on the anomalies relative to the mean from 1997-2025. The sheer extent _and_ magnitude of the anomalies on 20 Mar 25...

Giving the US Temperature Anomalies the SST graph treatment. Plotting the cumulative sum of the average daily US-wide anomaly (using data averaged over 2.5 x 2.5 deg grid). 2026 off to a flyer; just about the warmest since 2000 (anomaly w.r.t 2000-2025).

Slowly downloading ERA5 TMax values. Am creating a monthly average daily TMax (in local timezones) to get a daily anomaly value. Have summed this value across a crude conterminous US box. And lo, this March warm spell (for data post 2006) has the highest anomalously warm day so far...

Must be April: in comes that easterly...

In the middle of an oil and gas crisis, it's been a remarkable day for clean power in Great Britain. –Fossil fuel reached a new record low share in our generation mix, just 2.2% –Wind power set a new record high, 23.88 GW

Thought I'd look at the daily temperature anomaly (as an anomaly of the monthly mean temperature) for a few places in the US now the data is creeping into ERA5. Example for Phoenix, AZ. Yep, pretty anomalous warmth: about 4c warmer anomaly-wise that any other warm period in the 21st century.

Am trying to download ERA5 data from Copernicus CDS and finding it increasingly hopeless - can anyone recommend any alternatives? Case in point - taken over a day to download about 8 years' worth of the ERA5 surface max temperature data.

Have always stood up for Keir Starmer, especially for more intense microscope he's been put under compared to the Tory government of recent years. A decent, principled, serious man - the sort of person/character who should be leading a country. But today, all that changed.

Recall people doing standard deviation plots of temperature extremes for the Canadian heat a couple (?) of summers ago - would love to see how it pans out from an sd perspective.

I realise the UK is less prone to wild anomalies with its maritime setting, but heck let's have a go anyway. Late March average in London = 12C = 54F. 54F+42F = 96F. 36C in March, anyone? Seems utterly bizarre doesn't it...

Would love an algorithm that removes junk accounts like this who are following me. I always try and put stuff up on here that might prompt discussion but..... tumbleweed. This might explain much of it. Or that most of my stuff isn't thought provoking - in which case, it's probably time to pack up.

No wonder the winters feel like they've dragged since moving to Deal in Jan 2024... showing the Top 10 least sunny years in the ERA5 data and 23/24, 24/25 and 25/26 are all in the top 4 least sunny (for Oct-Feb). Winters getting less sunny?

Digging out my favourite Main Development Region SST chart... pretty much average for the time of year.

Exposure-weighted charts to show 1980-2025 winter (DJF) % change in avge snow depth & delta in avge max temperature by US state between second and first half of this period. More warmth, less snow the story, especially in the south - but the Mountain States ain't doing climate change. ERA5 data.

war seems to be going to plan!

Imagine coming on to a briefing to the press and your first thing to do is to bash the press. What an enormous embarrassment this Hegseth character is. I feel genuinely sorry for you, America.