Long expansions can create inefficiencies and complacency but the evidence on hysteresis suggests that recessions do not increase aggregate growth, quite the contrary.

New @cepr.org book on digital finance. A must read for current debates on CBDC, stablecoins, regulation, etc... And it is free to download. cepr.org/voxeu/column...

8-hour workday led to + employment in Denmark, especially among unskilled & female workers. Earnings fell in provincial towns but less in Copenhagen, where union membership was higher & wages rose to offset shorter hours. M Fredagsvik Gunnesmo, C Worm Hansen cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

A Kato & H Nishiyama find regional trade agreements have positive effects on exports to other countries from overseas Japanese manufacturing multinationals, suggesting that they have optimised their cross-border supply chain networks through free trade agreements. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Patrick Imam and Tigran Poghosyan show that despite earlier and sharper tightening, inflation targeting central banks did not achieve systematically better outcomes than their non-targeting peers during the 2022 global inflation surge. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

From CER: What the Dutch elections mean for the Netherlands and for Europe. www.cer.eu/insights/wha...

Francesco Bianchi, Era Dabla-Norris, & Salma Khalid show that most people dramatically misjudge debt levels and lose trust in their governments with every budget cut. They also believe that debt stabilisation efforts will disproportionately penalise them. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Efraim Benmelech & Joao Monteiro use data for 115 conflicts over the past 75 years and document large and persistent declines in output, investment, and trade following the onset of war, with no evidence of recovery even a decade later. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

David Martinez-Miera & Carlos Sunyer examine how an increase in political polarisation impacts a region's capacity to attract human capital. They leverage Spain's centralised system of medical resident placements and the 2017 Catalonia referendum as a case study. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

A Bonfiglioli, R Crinò, M Filomena, & G Gancia find that local #AI growth raises emissions by boosting economic activity and energy use. It also leads to power generation becoming more carbon-intensive as plants shifts from renewable to non-renewable sources. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

FBI fires top official amid Kash Patel’s outrage over reports of agency jet use

Dropping a beta version of this page while everyone is up and processing baseball! This tool lets you search the full text of papers from the American Economic Review, American Economic Journal series, and over 30,000 NBER working papers. paulgp.com/econlit-pipe...

11 states w/negative GDP growth, 10 states w/negative employment #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Bipartisan group of big-name economists (including Bernanke, Yellen, Nobel laureates Acemoglu & Johnson, etc) in amicus brief urge SCOTUS to throw out Trump's reciprocal tariffs. www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/24...

Nearly a decade after the #Brexit vote, new research shows how images, not just headlines, shaped public perceptions. Wanyu Chung (University of Birmingham) talks to @talknormal.co.uk about the visual politics of Brexit, using AI to measure emotion in media photos. cepr.org/multimedia/v... #EconSky

The podcast version of our BPEA paper on “Who bears the burden of climate inaction?” (thread below, with @cwolfram.bsky.social and @knittelmit.bsky.social) just dropped . www.brookings.edu/articles/how...

Donald Trump has pardoned Binance founder Changpeng Zhao. Binance has been a major supporter of Trump's crypto projects, and Trump has already made millions after Binance accepted a $2 billion investment from an Emirati fund denominated in the Trump family's USD1 stablecoin.

A great summary by Peter Klenow of the work of Aghion And Howitt that led to this year's Nobel Prize. @voxeu.org

New CEPR Discussion Paper - DP20761 Resetting the Innovation Clock: Endogenous Growth through Technological Turnover Philippe Aghion, @abergeaud.bsky.social, Timo Boppart, Jean-Félix Brouillette cepr.org/publications... #CEPR_MG #EconSky

Chart o the morning: German GDP growth has stalled. on.ft.com/48Hm3FS

"in the months following the Trump administration’s “Liberation Day” announcement, the dollar switched from rising during periods of market volatility to falling, and thus appeared to switch from a safe-haven to a ‘risk-on’ currency" cepr.org/voxeu/column...

Really nice column on the tax revenues implications of US tariffs.

@kclausing.bsky.social and Maurice Obstfeld evaluate #tariffs as a broad tool of fiscal policy and conclude that, combined with the large income tax cuts, Trump’s tariffs will leave most Americans worse off. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

If this is the best argument that Eric Schmidt can give to deny the existence of a bubble in AI stocks, then it is certainly a bubble. (source: www.ft.com/content/da16...)

About 2 months ago it was kinda edgy to call this a bubble and now...

The great thing about cryptocurrencies is that they strip banks of their power to create money thereby making the financial system more stable and.....oh finance.yahoo.com/news/paxos-a...

FT Investigation: How the Trump companies made $1bn from crypto. Some great work here www.ft.com/content/2ea2...

🚨 Central banks’ gold purchases are MASSIVE, they just go to a different school on.ft.com/4nUd1tM

Breaking news: The 2025 Nobel Prize for Economics has been awarded to Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt for their work explaining how innovation can drive economic growth. on.ft.com/3WEvVZq

Even concrete US interventions are unlikely to save Argentina's peso for long unless they go further than so far promised—though it might give Milei a rickety bridge through the October election without an embarrassing devaluation. By Maurice Obstfeld:

Join us online for a webinar on Fiscal Monitor October 2025: “Spending Smarter: How Efficient and Well-Allocated Public Spending Can Boost Economic Growth” 27 Oct -15:00 GMT Presenter: Davide Furceri (IMF) Moderator: @antoniofatas.bsky.social (INSEAD) Register here: cepr.org/events/fisca... #EconSky

If true (that FDI heading to the US is increasing), this means that current account deficit is about to increase or that other capital flows will go in the opposite direction. If current account deficit increases, it might boost growth somewhere else.

Gold is still gold by Willem Buiter.

Steven Kamin analyses how, in the months following 'Liberation Day', the dollar switched from rising during periods of market volatility to falling, and thus appeared to switch from a safe-haven to a 'risk-on' currency. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Blair role in Gaza politically crass and insulting to Palestinians. Yet I almost feel sorry for him. Most brilliant leader of his generation reduced to ventriloquist's dummy for Larry Ellison and lackey to Trump in desperate quest for relevance. Politics sometimes ends in tragedy as well as failure.

"experts say" www.cnn.com/2025/08/11/b...

🧵 (1/7) With @knittelmit.bsky.social and @cwolfram.bsky.social, happy to announce our new paper on “Who Bears the Burden of Climate Inaction?”, just posted for BPEA @brookings.edu. We find large climate cost impacts that vary by both geography and income. www.brookings.edu/articles/who...

It has never been about the technology or any real innovation in digital money and payments. It has always been about regulatory arbitrage.

Industrial, mfg prodn, retail sales all above consensus... #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

EJ Antoni says the recession is *here*!!! (as of August ***'24***) #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

good that Keir has broken his silence this morning to ... continue posting on a website run by a man who yesterday addressed a far right rally to call for his overthrow, while not in any way addressing said far right rally

It appears that Lisa Cook held off "proving her innocence" because she thought (rightly) she shouldn't have to. To have the courage to do that when the US state is attacking you is pretty darn admirable.

Poland says Russia’s drone incursion ‘wasn’t a mistake’ after Trump’s speculation – Europe live

I wrote about what I think is a genuinely revealing document of elite depravity and impunity. It is shocking and sickening. But it's also a crucial moment. We're about to see what happens when conspiracy theorists actually get what they asked for but it turns out not to be what they want.

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I guess the father is smart enough and does not need an explanation??? IMF, you can do better [from the Finance and Development latest issue]

In a paper presented at Jackson Hole, Emi Nakamura and her coauthors examine why central banks did not follow the Taylor rule when inflation rose sharply in 2021–22. The positive commentary the paper received prompted me to read it. swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/comments-o...

Congrats again to the elites who told us this guy was a credible Treasury Secretary because he went to the right schools & cocktail parties

Wow. The EU was ready to sanction Google for abusing its ad monopoly today. But it was blocked after pressure from EU Trade Commissioner @marossefcovic.bsky.social & the U.S. DoJ. Europe just chose Washington’s corporate interests over its own citizens. Unprecedented. Self-inflicted.

Shitshow waiting to happen on.ft.com/41sHC8D