This was both predictable and incredibly frustrating to those who believe in helping Ukraine defend itself from an illegal invasion.

We already know the winner in the war with Iran and that's Russia. The closure of the Straits of Hormuz has swung Russian crude from pariah to prized commodity. Urals oil price is the highest since right after the Ukraine invasion. Putin is loving this... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/markets-in...

Spike in oil and natural gas prices is a windfall…for Russia

Another example of how the actions of this administration may be driving allies away from us economically over time. It doesn’t cause a big economic shock today, but it erodes the position of US firms overseas over time.

Nice article from @sdonnan.bsky.social walking through the question of whether the conditions for use of tariffs under section 122 are met.

Question of the day seems to be “does the U.S. have a fundamental international payments problem?” Answer is easy “no”. We have enough money flowing into the country via the financial account to fund the deficit in our current account. This really isn’t hard.

This is good news. But there are many tools Trump can use where Congress has delegated tariff authority. The challenge for him is most of them cannot be jerked up and down and threatened on a whim. This might eliminate or at least slow some of the ad hoc threats.

Q4/Q4 core PCE inflation was 2.9% last year (vs. 3.0% in 2024). Trump's statement on the GDP report includes a parenthetical jab at the Fed chair, but there's not much of anything in this report that tells the Fed it needs to cut anytime soon.

This is for the econ stat nerds. GDP in 2025 grew at 2.2%. Normally, we’d ask, “is that annual average (the average in 2025 vs average in 2024) or q4q4 (the level in 2025:q4 vs 2024 q4). The latter is a better guide of what happened during 2025. This year, they were the same. So no need to argue

a member of Congress should introduce a bill that bans any federal agency or any entity receiving federal funds from naming anything after a sitting president. Make Trump veto that. Or make his supporters go on record supporting the cult of personality.

I keep pointing this out to people, but I don’t think it is getting enough traction. By making the U.S. an untrustworthy ally, Trump is making US firms risky partners. Even current allies are looking for ways to disentangle from U.S. tech. A bad long run outcome for the U.S.

Who could have predicted this? (Where “this” is the idea that indiscriminate tariffs bouncing up and down would raise input costs and uncertainty and hurt manufacturing). Oh right. Everyone. Everyone predicted this.

When I worked in the WH, lawyers asked me to resign as a Deacon at my church bc the Board of Deacons had fiduciary responsibility, & I couldn’t be a political appointee at the WH and have that for anything but the U.S. Some see the corruption & think “everyone does this”. No. This is awful & new.

Previously I said I thought the Board of Peace was the best example for @abenewman.bsky.social and goddard’s neoroyalism theory. But as this thread makes clear, we’re witnessing wholesale rewriting of national security policy away from Nation’s interest to Trump/famil/cronies.

I wrote this yesterday about the hero city of Minneapolis www.youtube.com/watch?v=IKOW...

Occupation of a city. Killing innocent people. Lying about the killing. I’ve never been more ashamed of my government. I spent 6 years in govt. 4 in politically appointed roles. If this had happened then, I’d have resigned. Anyone political in this administration there Monday is morally culpable.

Occupation of a city. Killing innocent people. Lying about the killing. I’ve never been more ashamed of my government. I spent 6 years in govt. 4 in politically appointed roles. If this had happened then, I’d have resigned. Anyone political in this administration there Monday is morally culpable.

I’ve found @abenewman.bsky.social ‘s neoroyalist frame very useful for thinking about Trump’s actions. I’m not sure anything fits the model better than the Board of peace. Not about US national interest at all. Purely for Trump and his family/cronies.

Companies now pay more for their parts as other businesses pass on the cost of tariffs — which include duties of 50% on steel and aluminum, as well as “reciprocal” tariffs of 10 to 50% on almost every trading partner. Amazing reporting by @aimewilliams.bsky.social et al www.ft.com/content/33ea...

CARNEY: “.. You cannot live within the lie of mutual benefit through integration when integration becomes the source of your subordination.” 🔥

As Carney notes, the U.S. has long had power through its economic choke points. We had primarily used this power to combat terrorism, nuclear proliferation, or violation of international rules. So others tolerated/supported this power. Trump is abusing it. The old order is gone at great cost to US.

Finally, from today: The full consequences of Trump's actions will take time to show up. Economists warn the undermining of institutions and alliances, erosion of the rule of law and cuts to scientific research (not a complete list) could do lasting damage. www.nytimes.com/2026/01/20/b... #EconSky

This is just awful. Not sure which is worse, assume Bessent knows how awful the policy is and is just carrying water, or think he believes this is good policy. This is hurting our economy and shredding decades of alliances, and violates both our laws and international commitments.

President Donald Trump’s fixation on Greenland offers an ice-cold reminder to leaders in Europe and abroad: No deal is ever final.

This from @pkrugman.bsky.social made me lol open.substack.com/pub/paulkrug...

Beyond being illegal and terrible strategy, this also highlights why it is and will be increasingly difficult for the U.S. to make “deals” with anyone. Trump cut a tariff deal with the EU a few months ago. Apparently that’s now null and void. Why would anyone trust what we say?

If the Court has not written its ruling on tariffs yet, I wonder how much more proof they need that if the President has this power to use on a whim, he will abuse it. Congress has not granted the President the authority to raise and lower taxes on Americans just because he feels like it.

Much like @atrupar.com says, this is not on the scale of importance as so many other awful things Trump is doing, but destroying the public golf setup in DC is really sad. I’ve never seen a more diverse (socioeconomic & racial) course in my life.

Janet Yellen tells @nytimes.com that the investigation against Powell is the most significant attack ever on Fed independence. "If you can bring charges for no reason whatsoever against your enemies, we're no longer living in a society governed by the rule of law." www.nytimes.com/2026/01/12/b...

Five. Alarm. Fire. 🔥

For those who don’t follow central banking. We should be clear. This is an attempt by Trump to bully the central bank and have the Fed make policy he likes. It goes against a century of tradition in the U.S., and based on tons of research is bad for the economy. Another low for this administration.

For those who don’t follow central banking. We should be clear. This is an attempt by Trump to bully the central bank and have the Fed make policy he likes. It goes against a century of tradition in the U.S., and based on tons of research is bad for the economy. Another low for this administration.

I assume that this is an attempt to make sure Powell resigns his Board seat when his term as chair is up. Trump wants another seat on the board. My view is Jay Powell is an honorable man & has plenty of resources to defend himself. My gut is this has no impact, or possibly backfires.

There are bigger breaches of norms, institutions, and laws recently, but this is illegal for a reason. The idea that talking to or following the President on media gets you market moving info ahead of time is wrong. Other administrations have gone to great lengths to avoid even a hint of impropriety

New at Can We Still Govern: @agpines.bsky.social & @lizananat.bsky.social explain how the work volatility of low income service employees will make it hard for them to satisfy new SNAP/Medicaid work requirements, even when they work lots of hours. 🧵 donmoynihan.substack.com/p/when-volat...

1/Leaders are abducted/allies are threatened but pundits and governments are scratching their heads on what the US is doing. Danish PM on Greenland "It makes absolutely no sense". Why? Because actors using old IR models when we need a new lens. Enter neo-royalism. abcnews.go.com/Internationa...

Play from 0:55 open.spotify.com/episode/2sAg.... In case you missed it over the holidays, I was on monetary matters with Jack Farley. We talked about China’s economy, the problems with Trump’s tariff (and other) policies, and the economy more broadly.

I sat in rooms debating how and if to use sanctions. With each use, you know you are incentivizing others to insulate themselves from the U.S. economy and system. You balance this with gains to national interest from using them. No national interest offset anymore, just damage to us over time.

This whole thread (which stretches back a few weeks) is worth reading.

www.nytimes.com/2025/12/18/h... the demonization of transgender individuals by this administration is abhorrent. And if you don’t think it impacts you, ask yourself what marginalized group would the people currently in charge not endanger to get more power.

Highly recommend this episode from @weisenthal.bsky.social and @tracyalloway.bsky.social . Even if you think you hear / read too much about AI these days, it is both a really fun chat and more importantly one of the better discussions of the practicalities of regulating AI I’ve heard.

I’ve seen it said we need more frivolous dialogue on Bluesky to balance out all the politics. So, here’s my Spotify wrapped to start some music conversations. Lots of great music this year.

This is what I think the goods-producing sector in America is doing right now — “We now have a better handle on what tariffs are doing to our business, and in response we’re cutting staff and/or doing more offshoring”:

The Trump Administration is driving our allies away from us. This hurts diplomatically, but can be damaging to US businesses abroad. US tech firms are a key part of the economy. Reckless trade and foreign policy is endangering our firms long run potential.

www.hamiltonproject.org/publication/.... For 15 years, my family has bought our Xmas tree at the same local place. They give out branded mugs with the year and a fun design. We will not have a 2025 mug. Owner said high and uncertain tariffs made it impossible to plan and order ahead. Thanks tariffs

This is ridiculous. All G20 members are always invited.The point of the organization is to bring together all major countries regardless of disagreements. Not attending the G20 was dumb. Trying to block a member when we host is a diplomatic train wreck. Hosting G20 is an opportunity. Were blowing it

www.nytimes.com/2025/11/26/w... Key quote here “How on earth is this in America’s interest?” It’s not. Damaging our ability to work with other countries for no reason. Awful.

This is ridiculous. All G20 members are always invited.The point of the organization is to bring together all major countries regardless of disagreements. Not attending the G20 was dumb. Trying to block a member when we host is a diplomatic train wreck. Hosting G20 is an opportunity. Were blowing it

An absolutely disgraceful embarrassment. Others should indeed express objections to US and boycott if needed.