I’ve seen it said we need more frivolous dialogue on Bluesky to balance out all the politics. So, here’s my Spotify wrapped to start some music conversations. Lots of great music this year.

This is what I think the goods-producing sector in America is doing right now — “We now have a better handle on what tariffs are doing to our business, and in response we’re cutting staff and/or doing more offshoring”:

The Trump Administration is driving our allies away from us. This hurts diplomatically, but can be damaging to US businesses abroad. US tech firms are a key part of the economy. Reckless trade and foreign policy is endangering our firms long run potential.

www.hamiltonproject.org/publication/.... For 15 years, my family has bought our Xmas tree at the same local place. They give out branded mugs with the year and a fun design. We will not have a 2025 mug. Owner said high and uncertain tariffs made it impossible to plan and order ahead. Thanks tariffs

This is ridiculous. All G20 members are always invited.The point of the organization is to bring together all major countries regardless of disagreements. Not attending the G20 was dumb. Trying to block a member when we host is a diplomatic train wreck. Hosting G20 is an opportunity. Were blowing it

www.nytimes.com/2025/11/26/w... Key quote here “How on earth is this in America’s interest?” It’s not. Damaging our ability to work with other countries for no reason. Awful.

This is ridiculous. All G20 members are always invited.The point of the organization is to bring together all major countries regardless of disagreements. Not attending the G20 was dumb. Trying to block a member when we host is a diplomatic train wreck. Hosting G20 is an opportunity. Were blowing it

An absolutely disgraceful embarrassment. Others should indeed express objections to US and boycott if needed.

Trump keeps hailing an investment boom that he says is set to top $21 trillion in pledges from companies & countries. But as we write in today's @bloomberg.com Big Take the reality is a third of that. And even that $7 trillion faces major questions. www.bloomberg.com/graphics/202...

Important piece from @msobel.bsky.social & Brad Setser on China’s rising CA surplus and the undervaluation of the RMB. All the attention right now is on US disruption of global trade. But important to remember the imbalance caused by China’s policies & implications for the rest of the world.

Raising revenue via tariffs is: ❌ inefficient ❌ ineffective ❌ regressive Learn more from @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social:

This is a historic day for trade policy. Background here ⤵️

Right now, the Supreme Court is hearing arguments about the legality of the Trump emergency tariffs. Part of the question is their role raising revenue. Separate from legality, we should remember tariffs are a terrible way to raise revenue. More here: www.hamiltonproject.org/publication/...

New from @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social - he asks and answers why tariffs are a particularly bad way for the U.S. to raise revenue. (Don’t skip the appendix figure) #EconSky www.hamiltonproject.org/publication/...

One of the justifications for the Trump administration’s tariffs has been raising revenue: The United States raised roughly $30 billion in tariff revenue in August. But, in a new explainer, @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social shows why raising revenue via tariffs is bad for the U.S. economy:

www.hamiltonproject.org/publication/.... The USG is raising roughly $30 billion a month by taxing imports (tariff revenue). This is a huge tax increase due to Trump’s tariffs. Other rich countries don’t do this because tariffs are an awful way to raise revenue. New explainer from me.

Excellent piece from @douglasirwin.bsky.social Reagan: "We should beware of the demagogues who are ready to declare a trade war against our friends — weakening our economy, our national security and the entire free world — all while cynically waving the American flag www.nytimes.com/2025/10/29/o...

I’ve been saying this to people too. The idea you want to be able to host a state dinner without putting a tent on the south lawn is reasonable. But tearing down the WH with no regards for historical preservation or involvement and funding from Congress is truly ridiculous.

A few pictures I remember fondly from having a view that stared straight out at the east wing.

You can always learn a great deal about today when reading @trevondlogan.bsky.social write about our history.

The Trump admin backing off the ban of noncompetes is gratuitously bad policy. When I was Director of @hamiltonproject.org we did lots of work highlighting the bad effects on workers, wages, and the economy that comes with limiting workers ability to switch jobs.This will hurt people and the economy

#Manufacturing purchasing managers are severely depressed: ❗️"Tariffs wreak havoc" ❗️"Too much uncertainty" ❗️"Unstable" policy ❗️"Worse than Great Recession" ❗️"Layoffs" 15% ❗️"It's survival" ❗️"Made in USA more difficult due to #tariffs"

The letter is ready, thanks to all those who helped out! Starting to gather signature now, please consider signing (link at top of letter) & spread the word. docs.google.com/document/d/1...

Yellen not at all pulling her punches in this op-ed for the FT www.ft.com/content/d2ea...

Good summary of Trump’s statement he fired Fed governor Lisa Cook. He cannot fire her without cause and it does not appear there is cause. Undermining the Fed will not generate an immediate crisis, but undermining the Fed and the rule of law is bad for the economy and country over time.

I wrote about the manifestly illegal attempt to fire Lisa Cook 1/ paulkrugman.substack.com/p/in-the-mat...

This action by Lisa Cook is courageous, principled, and deserves broad support.

Important article by @bencasselman.bsky.social Tariffs and cuts to key programs get attention and will do immediate damage. But Trump is also undermining long run growth. I’d add to Ben’s list: Trump is making parts of the population feel less secure which reduces innovation and entrepreneurship.

This will get lost in the shuffle of so many damaging high profile actions by this Administration. But this is just gratuitously bad. The government should support competition and try to help make sure consumers, workers, and small biz don’t get squeezed by huge firms’ market power.

@jasonfurman.bsky.social is appropriately blunt and brutal in his assessment of Trump’s firing of BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer and his atrocious nomination of EJ Antoni. Given the chaos Trump has unleashed on the economy, it’s important to have data to track it. This step undermines the data.

Ending publication of monthly Current Economic Statistics (CES) would violate the will of Congress as expressed federal law. It would also violate OMB's Statistical Policy Directive 3, which governs all Principal Federal Economic Indicators, including the CES. www.bls.gov/bls/statisti...

The US Constitution forbids export taxes but I guess this payment isn't a "tax" but a payout....🤔 www.nytimes.com/2025/08/10/t...

This is awful. Reliable economic data is a key strength of the US economy. When Argentina and Greece faked economic data it contributed to major crises. I don't think Trump will be able to fake the data given the procedures. But there is now a risk plus an awful appearance.

For six months, I've said that threats to economic data have been more collateral damage than intentional harm. No longer. Firing the head of the BLS is five-alarm intentional harm to the integrity of US economic data and the entire statistical system.

I guess we're past the point of persuasion, but don't say we didn't warn you. www.hamiltonproject.org/publication/...

Xi is *this* close to saying "overcapacity". On the tip of his tongue! China needs to “lawfully regulate enterprises’ disorderly low-price competition, guide companies to improve product quality, promote the orderly exit of outdated production capacity” www.scmp.com/economy/chin...

Elon Musk casually, and illegally, dismantled USAID. According to a new study in the Lancet, that action will lead to *14 million* premature deaths between 2025 and 2030. Again: Elon Musk is directly responsible for 14 million coming deaths. 4.5 million will be children.

USAID programs have had meaningful impacts around the world, saving lives and bolstering U.S. soft power. The cuts by the Trump admin have already killed thousands and millions more will die over the next few years. A tragedy.

Sometimes in policy, there are tradeoffs, but this 1 horrible bill is just awful in all dimensions. It blows out the debt and deficit leaving us worse prepared for real challenges Does serious damage to the safety net Crushes US clean energy industry Undermines long run growth Truly awful

This story does an excellent job walking through why PEPFAR has been so critical to saving lives and what a successful program it has been. Destroying it and so much else of our overseas aid quickly and haphazardly has been a disaster for people and for US reputation and soft power.

This is an important issue raised by Gillian Tett. One part of the dollar’s central role in the global economy has been the ability / willingness of the Fed to provide liquidity globally via swap lines. If that is called into doubt, it will shift others’ willingness to be exposed to the dollar.

I’m on the Econofacts podcast with @mwkleinphd.bsky.social this week. Give it a listen to hear about China and international debt. Stick to the end to hear Michael and me discuss the talent in the civil servants at Treasury and why they should be lifted up, not treated like they’re disposable.

80:1 New #tariffs on steel and aluminum will destroy jobs. @kadeeruss.bsky.social & @lydiacox.bsky.social published original research in @econofact.bsky.social showing that the ratio of jobs that use steel in production to those that make steel is 80:1. econofact.org/will-steel-t...

Seems like if we want to increase a culture of work etc etc, this might be more promising than taking food benefits away from 60 year olds or parents of 9 year olds. Of course funding things like this wouldn’t open up budgetary space for tax cuts for rich people.

Me on a podcast with @soumayakeynes.ft.com discussing interactions with China in Biden and Trump admins. There are many real issues to tackle. Trump leading with bluster and focusing (wrongly) on the bilateral trade deficit is counter productive.

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It is good for American consumers (&Apple) that it seems smartphones will not face a tariff. The need for the exemption highlights the damage tariffs can do to some sectors. It also highlights the damage less politically connected firms will face as their inputs/goods face tariffs.

www.nytimes.com/2025/04/07/o.... Brent Neiman points out that even if you grant the goals (which we shouldn’t) and the methodology (which we shouldn’t) to the Trump Admin, they still did the tariff math wrong. (Including using the wrong number from his research).

www.nytimes.com/2025/04/07/b.... Good article by Keith Bradsher reminding that there are fundamental challenges in the global economy. the world’s largest manufacturer has massive loan growth from state owned banks to industrial firms. That, not bilateral trade deficits needs attention.

Trump’s tariff announcement on April 2 was so big, @soumayakeynes.ft.com joined @chadpbown.com for an emergency episode. They cover history, the dollar, and even the U.S. legal system to clarify what we know about the tariff actions so far. EPISODE #207: tradetalkspodcast.com/podcast/207-...