If this indeed represents a moment when Trump is trying to end the Iran war, it should be noted that the only state to benefit from all this was Russia. Higher fuel prices, sanctions relief, Belarus rehabilitated, and a pro Russian government still in Iran. Funny that.

We have a new financial accounting metric.

First images from those meetings

I pressed send on this piece before Trump announced his ceasefire of sorts. I went ahead and updated it. What Trump has done strongly supports the central argument of the piece. The US does not want regime change in Iran and might be pursuing the worst example of “mowing the grass” in history.

Just sent out this piece. In the constant changes and instabilities surrounding US victory goals against Iran, one thing is clear. The Trump administration is attempting a US version of "mowing the grass". This is probably the worst strategic concept of my life. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

Calling the opposition party “the greatest enemy” of a country is exactly what wannabe dictators do to justify seizing power.

Netanyahu and Trump being both strong backers of Orban and thus opponents of democracy (and Ukraine) in Europe is a terrible position for the US and Israel to be

Phillips’ blog is always well worth your time. It is high-quality analysis of both the military situation and the associated political developments, by one of the few people who is actually an expert in the field.

Hi All, Just sent out my free weekend update. It starts with the Ukrainians claiming to have inflicted record Russian losses this week (twice) while keeping Ukrainian down. The Ukrainians seem to think that their way of fighting is superior to western analysts. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

Great threat. Knocking out power would eliminate the population’s ability to communicate and organize, which is what people need to coordinate an uprising.

Attacking civilian targets such as power plants is exactly what Putin’s Russia is doing to Ukraine. As always, the pupil is emulating his master.

Robert Mueller never had bone spurs and, if he had, he still would definitely have served his country. He was an example of what made America great, something now being destroyed by the President of the USA.

Thanks Andrew!

Thanks Frans!

Hi All, Delighted to say that there is a detailed new review of my book, War and Power: Who Wins Wars and Why, that was just published in @foreignpolicy.com . It is worth reading if you want to know more about the book. Gift link below. foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/20/b...

It is a fool's game to say who will end up "winning" this war. Yet, if you are the USA/Israel and planned it, started it, and more than three weeks into it are undertaking an unexpected escalation while relaxing sanctions on Iran--that is hardly a sign of victory at this time.

This article by @yarotrof.bsky.social strikes me as a well balanced description of where we are in the US/Israeli attack on Iran. Both sides think they are winning and both sides could miscalculate. www.wsj.com/world/middle...

A really good watch.

We're screwed.

Hi All, just in case you missed this in person, the video of the Substack Live I just did with @adamkinzinger.substack.com has appeared. It was as always a blast, we discussed US politics, Iran, Ukraine and the benefits of Scottish beer. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

Trump is screaming at Europe that he will never defend it. Time for Europe to just accept this and move on.

Highly recommended piece by @phillipspobrien.bsky.social on what the Iran war means for a war against China. Russia lost the "Moskva" in a war against a nation without a navy and had to withdraw most of its fleet from Crimea. That is basically the position of the US Navy in a war with China.

New piece. The US campaign against Iran has revealed one major story which people are not acknowledging. For reasons of both internal US weakness and technological development, the US is showing it has almost no chance in a war against China in the Western Pacific. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

Folks look at you like you’re crazy when you say we’re in the midst of the worst, most unprecedented Article I constitutional crisis in American history, & then it’s Thursday:

It is really unbelievable in the literal sense.

Watching Trump teeter on the edge of blowing up the world economy because of a combination of hubris, strategic incoherence, mendacity and outright stupidity, might be the most extraordinarily depressing thing I have observed in my entire life, or read about in any other period.

Trump is all about winning for Russia. He has gifted Putin a windfall at a vital time

Agree @nytimes needs to do better, much better Especially as they are the sole remaining remotely paper of record in the US

Phillips is completely right here. It is absurd to repeat an obviously false framing. And it is harmful, because once stated in the NYT it becomes credible.

Very disappointed by the @nytimes.com framing here. Two allies of the Russian economy had their sanctions lifted, using the pretense of the oil price. Lifting sanctions on these two individuals will not make any difference to world oil prices. It’s ludicrous and a gift to Putin.

Just sent out free midweek update #2. We are not seeing one war between the US/Israel and Iran--but two very different wars. In that way both sides can be winning and losing simultaneously. Also, what is happening in US strategic thinking. It’s not pretty. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

Ive said for more than a year that it might be better for Europe if the US left NATO. The US is now bullying and unreliable and would probably not fight for Europe against Putin anyway. Better for Europe to move on, especially with Ukraine a key anchor of its future security

Trump has decimated the Atlantic alliance and ended 80 years of American success. And this tweet is pathetic as well. A historic moment wrapped up in a petty whinge.

Breaking up the Austro-Hungarian Empire was extremely short sighted in this regard…

I, for one, am very much looking forward to the deployment of the Hungarian and Slovakian navies to answer Trump's call and start patrolling the Gulf. www.axios.com/2026/03/17/s...

Trump has created a veritable bonanza for Putin--new customers are buying Russian oil and at very high prices. oilprice.com/Latest-Energ...

Note, I also took this piece out of paywall from January 2025. What Trump has done in weakening US alliances was entirely predictable. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

Hi all, just sent out this piece. What we have witnessed in the last two days is a tragedy the US has brought on itself. Trump is now desperately pleading with US allies to save him, after 14 months of insults and attacks. He is an accelerant of US decline. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

It is fascinating that as Trump threatens and insults US allies to try and get them to get him out of this ridiculous strategic bind, he does not have the courage to even ask Putin politely to stop helping Iran kill American soldiers. Interesting that.

Some people thought I was overstating things in my Le Suicide de l'Amérique book. Alas, I wasn't

Hi all, just sent out this piece. What we have witnessed in the last two days is a tragedy the US has brought on itself. Trump is now desperately pleading with US allies to save him, after 14 months of insults and attacks. He is an accelerant of US decline. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

So, the USA has "100%" destroyed Iranian military capacity, and totally won the war (4 times at least), and, after all that winning, Trump is "demanding" other countries come in to "help us". Yeah, its going well, really well....

Ahh, the famous war is an extension of fun by other means strategy.

1/8🧵 #US #Europe Excerpt's from OBrien's weekly👇 Remember the false narrative of 'Strong #Russia Weak #Ukraine' from 1 year ago? The reality is starting to sink in; Ukraine is stronger, and European security is dependent on Ukraine, not the other way around. ⤵️

Free weekend update is out. This week the big story is what Ukraine can do, particularly for Europe. People must stop about talking about Ukraine as some state that only needs help. Ukraine has huge strengths that can protect European freedom, if Europe is smart. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

This Trump tweet is a work of art and needs to be kept for posterity. It turns out that the US has destroyed 100% of Iran’s military capability. Yet, to combat a military with no capability he is left pleading with allies he has regularly insulted to save him in the Gulf.

Let me see if I get this right. Trump starts a war with no clear strategic aims Trump fails to anticipate Iran choking off the Persian Gulf Trump bombs such that the Iranian people are keeping their head down. And Trump apologists say the problem is Trump critics are mean and won’t support him.

Unprecedented corruption. Literally asking for billions of dollars.

So true & there are so many Americans who don't see it.