This is a Trump lie. Btw the first time he said India had stopped buying Russian oil was August 2. India bought more Russian oil after the sanctions were announced than before, and overall bought more Russian oil in October than September.

The reality is that if the 2026 mid term elections are run fairly in the USA, the Democrats will take control of the House of Representatives and maybe even the Senate. The other reality is that the Trump Administration will not want that to happen. Do the math...

Man, the Mamdani truthers on Bsky seem to be identical to MAGA truthers on Twitter, just on the left. Personally insulting and rude. Go for it guys, drive away the center and enjoy your losses.

A very important article in @foreignaffairs.com The real sanctions hurting the Russian economy are the Ukrainian long-ranged sanctions on Russian oil refining and production. Unlike Trump's sham "sanctions", these are real ones which are taking a real toll. www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/slow-...

Btw, the government shutdown fight by the Democrats shows how to deal with Trump. Fight. Always Fight and never let him get away with his BS.

Hello All Republicans--you should definitely prove Trump right by making your embrace of him central to your reelection campaigns. Because last night was in no way a repudiation of his disastrous leadership, no, not at all....

This is an interesting observation in the aftermath. bsky.app/profile/phil...

The story of the vote in the USA last night is that the Democrats have an amazing opportunity to retake the center ground of US politics and have a strong working majority--while forcing the GOP to the far right. If the Dems do not do this, they have only themselves to blame.

Just sent out this short, free piece. Yesterday's election in the USA might represent a chance for Ukraine supporters. Previously, fear of Trump who wants to work with Putin, has enfeebled Ukraine supporters in Congress. Now Trump is a liability--and that is good. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

After blustering and threatening for weeks, the Republicans are going to fold on the Government shutdown like cheap lawn furniture.

Looking possible that the Democrats might sweep the board today--which means attempts to pervert the 2026 Congressional election will go into hyperdrive. Get ready.

Looking possible that the Democrats might sweep the board today--which means attempts to pervert the 2026 Congressional election will go into hyperdrive. Get ready.

Just sent out this piece. Last week was refreshingly honest in one way. The Trump administration could finally stop pretending that it was pivoting to Asia to confront China, and tell the truth that it was pivoting to work with China. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

So far, Indian purchases of Russian crude are UP since Trump put “sanctions” on Russia. If harsh secondary sanctions are not imposed by the US on 21 November…. timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/ind...

Damn, if this was true, I should have received a Nobel Prize by now… studyfinds.org/dark-chocola...

Hi All, Richard Adous and I recorded this podcast, which discusses war and power with a big lens (not just my new book). As always, Richard was a source of great ideas. Have a listen. www.persuasion.community/p/phillips-o...

Yep, he is really going to drop the sanctions hammer on Putin, yes indeed….

Don’t pressure us. We’ve only had…forever.

The amazing thing about the last few days is that people are not saying openly enough what has happened. The Chinese stared the US down and the US blinked. It could represent the end of an era and former US allies in Asia-Pacific had better watch out.

Cant wait for Trump boasting soon about settling the Venezuela-Nigeria war. Its coming....

Updates that are worth your 10 minutes of time.

Hi All, Just released my latest free weekend update. The Battle of Pokrovsk (which we were first told in July 2024 was doomed) might finally be ending. The Russians have slaughtered masses to possibly take it, Ukraine is right not to do the same to hold it. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

Still waiting for confirmation that Donald Trump has condemned Tucker Carlson and Nick Fuentes. That must have happened by now, right?

“Three years ago the idea of Ukraine attacking [russian illegal occupiers in] Crimea caused people to lose their heads, while last night hundreds of Ukrainian drones attacked targets, many in and around Moscow and Russia tried to shrug its shoulders.” Pretty much it.

🎯 👇 "The attack and the reaction to it show the extraordinary failure of Washington (and European) support for Ukraine up until now; how it has taken a war that could have been ended, and strung it out into an extraordinary bloody mess that will probably reach a terrible crescendo this winter"

Last night Ukraine attacked Russian targets (including Moscow) with hundreds of drones and Russian authorities downplayed the event. Three years ago we were told if Ukraine attacked Crimea, Russia would go nuclear. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

I’m sorry to disabuse your notions, but Tucker Carlson and Kevin Roberts are far more powerful in today’s conservative movement than Ted Cruz and Mitch McConnell. If Trump doesn’t repudiate Carlson and Roberts, we have to assume they represent much of the movement.

On the left, the refurbished Lincoln bathroom. On the right, picture I took in Saddam Hussein's palace in Basra in 2005.

In the end the two groups to gain the most from Trump’s ill considered tariff-fest will be Argentinian soybean farmers and Chinese politicians/diplomats. Huzzah!

The markets are speaking. They saw Trump fold on China yesterday, and have concluded that his “sanctions” on Russia will have “limited” value (to put it kindly). Oil analysts aren’t going to be fooled like MAGA propagandists. www.thehindubusinessline.com/markets/comm...

youtu.be/8OkgVemHf2g?... 🎙️ New PODCAST, Alex Drueke Former US soldier. Fellow POW. Brother in survival. We talk capture, torture, propaganda, and the moment life snaps into before and after. Raw. Honest. No filter. Watch early on my channel, truth first, always. 🇺🇦🔥

Hi All, Just sent out this post. People need to understand that the ranged/strategic air war over Russia and Ukraine is still in an early stage. Its poised for great (and terrible) changes in mass, technology and tactics over the coming year. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

So Trump and Xi are on the cusp of a trade deal (think US climb down on Trump’s beautiful tariffs)…anyone want to guess what that means for the prospects of secondary tariffs on Chinese companies buying Russian oil?

But---I thought the USA under Trump was going to stand up to Putin. Please wake up Europe--the USA will not defend you against Russia. www.reuters.com/world/us-wil...

"If Hegseth and other U.S. military planners think they are going to defeat China through ferocity in close combat, they are fooling themselves."

For whom it might concern

Hi All, Latest piece out in The Atlantic--Why The US Is On Track To Lose A War With China. The US has failed to understand both power and war for most of the last few decades, and it has left the country able to win battles, but generally lose wars. www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv...

In Trump’s world, telling the truth is a crime and deserves punishment. Reagan was a committed free trader and the Canadian summary of the speech was spot on.

Hi All, Just sent out my free weekend updates. This was the week when the Trump administration once again blocked the two most effective sanctions it could bring against Russia (Graham-Blumenthal and aid for Ukraine's ranged campaign). open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

Intelligence is about telling truth to power. If power isn’t interested in truth, what’s the point? open.substack.com/pub/alexzfin...

Worth noting that blaming the US/NATO for Maidan is hardly limited to Sachs. One of the loudest proponents of this view is Donald Trump who in 2023 blamed Maidan on the Obama Administration

When you hear from Washington that a certain issue is “under review” it usually means it’s dead. People should admit the whole Tomahawks to Ukraine discussion was one long fraud that has gone on for almost 4 months. www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/202...

wtf is this?

The danger of manipulating data and lying about statistics. www.pbs.org/newshour/sho...

After the piece I released yesterday caused such a stir, I've put together this more detailed discussion of why the Trump "sanctions" on Russia are likely to be far less than is being reported. It is a piece not for the fainthearted. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

As usual, @phillipspobrien.bsky.social cuts through the BS: “In the short term the Trump administration has actually helped Russia. It has provided a four week grace period for foreign companies to buy as much Russian oil as they possibly can.“ phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/the-new-us...

@ilvestoomas.bsky.social of course we knew that

A new free piece released. The Trump "harsh" sanctions on Russia last night were anything but. They actually provide protection for Russia's biggest oil customers to transact business for at least the next 4 weeks--and have no automatic sanction after that. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

So much for the idea that the US has supported the Ukrainian long range strike campaign.