First the administration said they wanted unconditional surrender, and Iran did not surrender. Then they said in the deal Iran made all the concessions, and Iran made no concessions. They they said Iran would get no money, and Iran is getting lots of money. Now this....

working hard on the Mandela Effect

Say what you want about the Trump Administration, they certainly now how to surrender with swagger.

When people wonder why Trump lost his war against Iran so quickly and completely, you only need to remember that he is the same person who called Putin a “strategic genius” and tried to bully Ukraine by saying it had “no cards”. Simple really.

Dat het Oekraïense leger in november 2022 in een paar dagen de stad Kherson en de hele rechteroever van de Dnipro kon bevrijden, was dankzij maanden voorbereiding: bruggen afsnijden, logistiek onmogelijk maken, precies wat nu op de Krim gebeurt.

One key element of #Ukraine winning the war, is taking Crimea. OBrien gives you all the details you need for understanding this strategy. Crimea is the crown jewel in Putin's fantasy of Empire #Russia. His genocidal regime will not survive losing Crimea.

Ukraine has cut off Crimea fr/the sea. The next campaign will be a complete air-sea isolation of C.. Only then UA can go for the last part of the campaign: Completely severing or at least severly damaging the road➕rail links into C.. After that, expect to see more efforts to take Kerch bridge down.

New piece which describes how Ukraine has turned Crimea from a strategic asset for Russia into what is now a strategic liability that can lead to a death-loop of Russian strength. It’s been a methodical process, years in the making, and it is paying real dividends. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

"Trump’s devotion to Putin remains stronger than anything else"

1/4🧵 Excerpts from OBrien's weekly👇 The Russian could've attacked the Lavra at anytime since 2022. Why now? Because #Russia has nothing left to escalate with. They have no way of inflicting more military pressure on #Ukraine than they are already doing. Russia is desperate.

Excellent analysis (as usual) of what many seem to be sensing: the Russian-Ukraine war is at a turning point. Fingers crossed!

So this is what you call a toll that you do not want to call a toll….

Just sent out my free weekend update. The big story this week were the Russian attacks on a cathedral and a Ukrainian attack on a refinery. Actually it was not the targets that were the big difference, it was the change in capabilities. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

1/3🧵 #Ukraine #Iran #Russia #Europe OBrien identify three distinct "reveals" about American might: a) #US is weakened both military and diplomatically. The 'rally-around-the-flag' effect is gone.

Great read #fellas

Trump has lost a war to Iran and is in the process of losing a war to Italy. Do Americans understand how weak he makes the USA look to the world?

There are many, many things in this life I will never understand. A Polish president doing something that will hearten a Russian dictator as the Russians are waging a murderous war of expansion against a former part of the Imperial Russian Empire (like Poland) is one of them.

Just sent out this post--the US-Iran war has revealed three things that are pretty stark and need to be understood. So far the US and arguably Europe have drawn mostly wrong lessons from the Russo-Ukraine War--hopefully they change now. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

We have a plausible explanation for why the US military underperformed badly against Iran and did far less damage to the Iranian military than it had claimed. www.independent.co.uk/news/world/a...

For nearly 18 months, the Trump administration and many analysts have thought of the US, Russia, and China as great powers deciding the fate of the world, unconstrained by lesser states. Today, the US is the losing party in a Versailles peace agreement and Moscow looks like this:

Just a friendly reminder. If the US had taken only a small fraction of the money and military equipment it has squandered fighting and losing to Iran, and instead helped Ukraine, the Middle East would be more stable and Russia would be facing defeat.

Remarkable footage. Moscow has arguably the most concentrated air defense network in the world, and a Ukrainian flamingo can get through with what looks like no interference.

Recommended reading

Trump is a master strategist.

Hi All, we now have an official text of the USA-Iran MOU from the US point of view. It is extraordinary. The US is in a far weaker position than before it started this war fewer than four months ago. Here is a free, blow-by-blow description why. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

So Trump has spent the last 24 hours saying that dealing with the Iranian government is great, saying Iran can keep its missiles, saying how he wants people to invest in Iran. In other words, he is now strongly helping one of Putin's closest allies. Funny how that turned out.

Yes.

With the agreed, final text of the US-Iran still to be released on Friday, one thing is already clear. The only debate worth having is how decisively has the USA been humbled and defeated.

Hi All, sent this piece out yesterday, it aims to describe what is happening with AI and the modern war and proposes a new framework to understand how we are moving to an automated battlefield.

Remember when Trump promised the Iranian people the full support of the USA if they rose up and took their freedom….

Illuminating short article, highly recommended! (If it is a topic you follow) about micro (human determines drone target, then autonomous) and macro (airspace surveillance and integration of many drones and other sensors).

Blaming JD Vance for the Iran fiasco is like blaming Witkoff/Kushner for the USA being pro-Putin. They are lies that make honest political discussion impossible in the USA. Both the Iran and Russia are policy catastrophes were driven for and by Donald Trump alone. Face facts.

"The really sobering step, which I believe is coming, will occur when AI systems not only help decide what to attack and even the best way to attack—but also decide when. In other words when the AI system makes the decision to launch." When the decision is no longer human, danger is upon us all.

Just sent this out. There are lots of dramatic and breathless announcements (some true, some false) about AI advances in war fighting. Here is a framework for understanding what is important and how we are progressing to the automated battlefield. It is coming. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

So Trump signed a deal with the Iranians but is refusing to release its terms for days. Best bet is that he knows they are a massive defeat and is trying to set a completely false narrative by flooding the airwaves with misinformation for as long as possible.

So Trump is ok with Iran collecting money from shipping passing through the Strait as long as it’s called a “fee” and not a “toll”. So much winning.

Trump last night: Praises Putin to the New York Times and promises to bully Ukraine (again) into handing over more land and people to Russia. Putin last night:

Cannot imagine a more telling sign of Russian desperation. A wonderful, historic landmark of tremendous cultural value being attacked out of fear and what must be a growing understanding of Russian failure.

The gullible idiots are, as always, those who thought Trump might do something good for the Iranian people.

The amazing thing is that even after offering a fabulous deal to Iran—sanctions relief, no meaningful new restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program, and Iran still in control of the Strait—-Trump is still struggling to get Iran to sign and Israel to do what he wants. Decline indeed.

I recommend a subscription. This is a marvelously detailed account of the methods by which Ukraine is strangling the Crimea, and includes a discussion of how they are (of necessity) moving away from a mass conscript army towards a highly professional one, the inverse of the Russians.

“Since June 6, Ukraine has launched a comprehensive and well thought out series of mid-range UAV attacks against the road and rail network into Crimea.” They know an auspicious date when they see it.

Free weekend update is out. This week, Ukraine's mid-range strike campaign focused on cutting off Crimea. If the Ukrainians can isolate the peninsula, Russian control will be close to impossible. Also, Ukraine opts for Infantry excellence over mass--a wise choice. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

Prepare yourself for US humiliation. Iran, btw, has never claimed it wanted a nuclear weapon, so if they say they do not in the agreement--that is nothing. The Strait of Hormuz was open on Feb 27, and note that Trump says nothing about Iran giving up the right to charge tolls.

1/ Ukraine's increasing dominance of the airspace over Crimea and southern Russia is causing great alarm amongst Russian warbloggers. One predicts impending catastrophe for Russia: "Panic and the total collapse of all the main roads." /end bsky.app/profile/noel...

... Eine Niederlage im Krieg gegen den Iran ist das Beste, was den USA passieren kann. Sie macht die Korruption und Inkompetenz an der Spitze des US-Systems deutlich und könnte zu einer Selbstreflexion führen, die langfristig zu einer Verbesserung der Lage beiträgt. Die USA müssen Demut lernen.

Many of our leaders need to learn more humility.

New piece. Losing the war with Iran is the best thing possible for the US. It highlights the corruption and incompetence at the top of the US system and might lead to soul-searching that will make things better in the long run. The US needs to learn humility. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

This might be hard for Americans to hear, but the USA getting humiliated by its abject failure as a power during this Iran War might be the best thing possible at this time. The country needs to understand there are consequences for electing a crook.

Iran seems set to get a lot of money up front. www.reuters.com/world/middle...