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Wanna know the reason why I’m better informed about this war than at least 90% of you? It’s because I read these reports by Phillips O’Brien

Phillips, always best analysis on Russia’s ‘special military operation’. When this war eventually ends Ukr will find it has a vibrant arms export market due to its innovation and proven battlefield performance.

Hi All, Just released my latest free weekend update. The big story of the last month was not the original Russian infiltration near Pokrovsk--but the speed and effectiveness with which Ukraine reacted to it. The Russian military could not do what the Ukrainians did. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

Critical part of the President's new $100,000 charge for H1-B visas: The Administration can also offer a $100,000 discount to any person, company, or industry that it wants. Replacing rules with arbitrary discretion. Want visas? You know who to call and who to flatter.

The US ceased to be a reliable NATO ally on January 20, 2025. The last week has simply made that undeniable. The only question now is whether European leaders accept it. The USA will not now defend Europe from Russia. That is reality. Everything else is hopes and dreams.

1/ Excerpts from OBrien's work on Tomorrows Militaries👇 I hope all defense chiefs read this and report to their funding authorities. Or you will have problems. #Russia #Ukraine #Europe

Hi All, I spent much of the week meeting with people immersed in a discussion of preparing European militaries for the future. As part of this, I have developed a six step process that could help determine how militaries should be prepared for the future. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

I tend to be angry, doom&gloom in my comments. Then it's nice to read @alanderminna.bsky.social analyses which always put me in a better mood😀 Recommended on European respons to Russia's NATO-attack👇

One of the best books I’ve ever read on World War II. If you haven’t read it, do yourself a favor and buy it (audiobook otherwise). You won’t look at the war in the same way after…

Hi All, If you are looking to listen to 250,000 words of production statistics and logistics talk (and who isnt?), you will be delighted to learn that How The War Was Won is on a 50% sale. And if you do not like the book--it can at least help you sleep. www.audiobooks.co.uk/promotions/p...

Important new Europe Dispatch column by @alanderminna.bsky.social The Russian drone attack into Poland emphasizes one very important change--a European only NATO group of states is beginning to take action. They understand that the US will not lead. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

A truly pathetic story. GOP Senators, who know that Trump and Vance are protecting Putin and hurting Ukraine, complain about it anonymously. They are members of Congress for god's sake. Schedule a vote if you want. They are as bad as Trump and protecting Putin as much. thehill.com/homenews/sen...

Good take. NB: “IOW, what the Indian government has done… was not to come crawling and dance to America’s tunes, but to recalibrate away from the USA. That means better relations with (and more money going to) Russia and China from India.” Yup.

Hi All, just sent out an update on the strategic disaster that is Trump’s policies towards India. Far from reducing Indian purchases of Russian oil, it has led to them growing, helping Putin. It’s only the US getting weakened. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

Excellent summary 🥌

Great analysis from @phillipspobrien.bsky.social Europes on its own. Trump won’t help and is actively helping Putin.

Just released my free weekend update. Big stories of the week include the continuation and sophistication of the Ukrainian ranged attacks, the utter failure of NATO, which ended the week escorting Russian drones so they could attack Ukraine… open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

I miss moderate centrists, who don’t claim to have all the answers, who don’t ascribe to either extreme ideologies or supposedly god-given rules to try and control other people, and who try to work together to settle problems aware of their own limitations. Where have they gone?

"If liberal states invest more in each other and less in autocracies, the rule of law could give them an even greater material advantage, as corruption in other authoritarian countries slows growth" international antitrust cooperation also makes sense only where rule of law is respected

Hi All, With my article just appearing in Foreign Affairs about how democratic states need a strategy to survive and possibly fight back now that Trump is moving the USA closer to Russia and China, I put together this piece. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

If Trump really wanted to sanction Putin, he could. It would be no problem. Congress would go for any sanction he wanted. So any time Trump puts a condition on sanctions, it’s just another piece of evidence that he is protecting Putin from sanctions and helping Russia in the war.

Hi All, With my article just appearing in Foreign Affairs about how democratic states need a strategy to survive and possibly fight back now that Trump is moving the USA closer to Russia and China, I put together this piece. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

If you are a politician, a business leader, or just an ordinary citizen, you should read this👇 Understand the content. Understand what it means for your life going forward.

Latest article for @ForeignAffairs The US can no longer be considered a friend of democracy, as such the existing democratic states need to think strategically about protecting themselves and even starting a fightback. There is no point in pretending everything will be ok.

European leaders speaking the truth to Trump, and not enabling his terrible lies, is a great thing and should be encouraged.

Russia attacks Poland deliberately, the Trump response…”It could’ve been a mistake.” Any European state basing its defense plans on the US defending it from a Russian attack is living in a fantasy world and deliberately exposing its citizens to great risk.

The idea that ideological statements were carved into bullets did seem just a little unlikely to say the least…

Hi All, Just did a Substack Live with @astroterry.bsky.social . We talk about US politics, running for the Senate in Texas, the importance of Ukrainian victory for Ukraine, and even how to take down the Kerch bridge with air power. Enjoy. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

Hi All, Great new Europe Dispatch column by @alanderminna.bsky.social The attack on Poland might or might not have been an act of war--but it needs a European response. All Russian drones that enter the air space of NATO European countries should be shot down. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

It’s now been a day and a half since Russia launched a premeditated military attack on Poland, ostensibly an ally of the USA. And so far this is the only reaction of the US president. And some people still think the US will defend Europe from Russia…

Latest in @theatlantic.com . The Russian deliberate attack on Poland (and thats what it was) should have been easy for NATO to handle. However the alliance failed--and the reasons why show just how dysfunctional it has become.

Von der Leyen saying ”Europe will defend every inch of its territory” is interesting given it was supposed to be NATO that defends every inch of Allied territory (see NATO strategic concept 2022)… Given that the US probably isn’t in on that pledge anymore, this makes sense as direction of travel

As usual, @phillipspobrien.bsky.social nails it. phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/nato-state...

When will Europeans understand that Trump is actively trying to weaken them, and using NATO to make Europeans act against their own interests? He has basically turned NATO into a stalking horse to help Russia, and Europeans are helping him.

So if Russia did not attack Poland last night--can we say the Russians launched a special military operation against Poland? That cant offend anyone right....

"NATO states have no idea how to look after their own security. They cannot even call an attack, an attack." And that's where we are.

Just sent out this free post. Russia attacked Poland last night--and the NATO response indicates institutional and national failure. They were clearly not prepared, cannot even call the Russian attack an attack, and do not understand their real security concerns. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

The time for the West to start arming democratic Ukraine to the teeth and imposing crippling sanctions on fascist Russia was... over three years ago. Putin has been given time to switch his economy to a war footing. Stopping him now will be much more costly - and risky.

The main lesson from last night for Poland (indeed all NATO in CEE) should be that their defense starts in Ukraine. Imagine the results if Russians could launch a massive UAV attack on Poland from just over the border in Ukraine?

Stop blaming Elbridge Colby! An old German proverb says: The fish starts to stink at the head…

Damn, every statistician in Washington is going to be fired and replaced by RFK Jr after this.

Stop Blaming Elbridge Colby The Policies of Protecting Putin And Harming Ukraine Are Trump's

Some of the very best and most internationally renowned political scientists in Germany are at Cologne. This is a very real threat to a globally strong group.

Just sent out this post. Three times in the last two months, people have tried to blame the outrageously pro-Putin steps taken by the Trump Administration on a third level bureaucrat in the Pentagon. This has to stop. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

Hi All, The Strategists is on a great but limited time kindle offer. You can get the book for only $1.99 but you need to move quickly. Here is a link. www.amazon.com/Strategists-...

The Ukrainians should keep hitting the Druzhba pipeline until Orban changes his tune

All of Russia's largest oil companies reported a collapse in profits for the first half of 2025, The Moscow Times writes.

More Russian fuckery

Hi All, The Strategists is on a great but limited time kindle offer. You can get the book for only $1.99 but you need to move quickly. Here is a link. www.amazon.com/Strategists-...