The ceasefire story is fascinating. Turns out that Trump seems to have pleaded with Zelensky on Putin’s behalf. The Ukrainians said that they agreed on the condition that prisoners are returned and the ceasefire covers only the parade area. kyivindependent.com/breaking-tru...

Ukraine is now taking the war to Russia. It is as clear a sign as any that Europe together can protect itself in the future without the USA.

Lord, Trump is literally re writing US history to adopt Putin’s narrative. The war ended for the USA many months later.

Brilliant diplomatic play by #Zelenskyj: #Putin was tricked into breaking his proposed ceasefire, and demonstrated to the whole world that #Russia only wants war, by attacking a kindergarten. #Trump was tricked into showing everyone, that the #US no longer has any leverage in the war. #Ukraine

doesn’t every military roll out 85-year-old tanks on parade

Just sent out this post. The maneuvering around the Moscow "victory" day parade set for tomorrow reveals a great deal about the state of the war. Putin is desperate to protect himself, but the Ukrainians have maneuvered him into a trap. They may take advantage. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

@phillipspobrien.bsky.social on Ukraine, Iran, and "Taking the Initiative" in war. "[President Zelenskyy] has actually wrong-footed the administration. The administration doesn't know how to deal with him now. They're used to people who lie, who suck up to Trump. And Zelenskyy just stopped that."

The Papal statement after meeting with Rubio was a significant rebuke to Trump and the US administration. No niceties, little agreement and the acknowledgment of strong differences of opinion. US standing in the world has arguably never been so low. www.thedailybeast.com/vatican-humi...

SCOOP: A confidential new CIA analysis delivered to policymakers this week concludes that Iran can survive the U.S. naval blockade for at least 3 to 4 months before facing more severe economic hardship, a finding that contradicts those hailing an imminent collapse 🧵

The White House has always pretended peace is closer than it has been--however if this is true, Trump is throwing in the towel. Its back to Obama's JCPOA, only with less control over Iran's nuclear program. www.axios.com/2026/05/06/i...

“It’s like an orange version of Groundhog Day.”

Hi All, just sent out this free midweek update. We have a fascinating contrast. For all the talk, nothing has materially changed in the US-Iran War since April 1. Trump remains as stuck as he was then. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

It is a brutal example of the mathematics of war, but also a crucial one. The battlefield is getting more dangerous for human beings. The Russians are paying the price while, thankfully, the Ukrainians are not.

The USA has not only ceased being leader of the free world, it has ceased being a member of the free world. It betrays democratic allies and supports expansionist dictatorships. The only question Americans need to ask themselves is do they want this to continue?

Grim but important new story in @kyivindependent.com The realities of this war is that soldiers, particularly Russian ones, seem to have a declining chance of evacuation if wounded. It means that dying is now the most likely result of getting hit. kyivindependent.com/russian-loss...

Insightful update from Phillips. Highly recommended reflections on the “cult of the offensive.” Offensives may win some battles, but can lead to bleeding out like russia is doing.

The idea that Iran’s oil wells would “explode in three days” or that Trump’s shipping blockade would quickly damage the Iranian economy so much that it would collapse was another sign of US analytical failure along the lines of “Kyiv will fall in a week!”

Just sent out this piece. First part is a free one on just want Trump’s announcement of being a guide to shipping in the Strait might mean. It’s certainly not clear. Then a discussion of what taking the initiative means in strategy. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

1/3🧵 #Russia #Europe #US Excerpts from OBrien's weekly👇 #Ukraine is taking back the strategic initiative i the war, both in the air war... ⤵️⤵️

Great analysis from Phil. I will add one picture give nuance to Phil’s argument “Once again, we need to see if Ukraine can keep it up, but if this does represent a consistent change, more and more the initiative in the long-range strike war will go to Ukraine.”

Hi All, Just sent out my free weekend update. With recent developments clear, it is safe to ask this question. Is Ukraine taking the initiative from Russia in the ranged and land wars? The Ukrainians did in the sea war and now seem to be doing it in other domains. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

The US is an unreliable and deceitful ally now, and is doing its best to help Putin’s dictatorship commit unspeakable war crimes against a European democracy. It is a good thing if the US pulls out of Europe and stops pretending.

This is why the EU and the UK were foolish to accept unequal trade deals with Trump. Any deal he signs is meaningless.

"Ukraine’s OWA drone campaign shows that key assumptions about the strategic impact of drones – that they are too vulnerable and too small to impose costs at the strategic level – do not apply across the entire spectrum of uncrewed systems." www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

More cards are incoming.

Hi all, just sent out this post. If you watch closely, the Trump administration has narrowed down its victory conditions over Iran to only one point. Trump wants out, and maybe a deal gets done sooner than people think. It’s not likely but it is possible. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

This is not a winning strategy for the midterms. Will the US blink first?

There is alot more to this story than meets the eye. I have heard from a GOP source with excellent knowledge of the state of play at the high reaches of the party that the idea of Don Jr going for the nomination over Vance or Rubio is not some far fetched development.

Something very worrying is going on. The Pentagon is now lying to Congress on important details. It has become an arm of Administration propaganda against the legislative branch.

He lives in Putin’s universe and accepts everything Putin tells him as truth.

The amazing thing is that this is actually how he sees himself.

Just released my free midweek update on the US-Iran war. The double blockade has unleashed a double race against time. The Trump administration has to hope to damage the Iranian oil system and economy before the political impact to itself becomes irreparable. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

Ukraine is putting relentless pressure on Israel now. The Netanyahu government has made a catastrophic error by siding with Putin's dictatorial government.

כן

Hi All, Just sent out. On Saturday we saw Trump blink in his confrontation with Iran, though too often the reporting was that he called off talks. There is no evidence to support that, and actually what we see is the US being placed in a strategic box. Here is why. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

Very much worth a read on Ukraine, Europe and military innovation.

„Europa investiert in die Ukraine und die Ukraine stärkt die europäische Sicherheit. Angesichts des wachsenden Bewusstseins, dass die USA in Bezug auf die europäische Sicherheit vorerst ein Scheitern sind, muss diese Freundschaft auf beiden Seiten wachsen.“ Besser spät als nie. 🤷‍♂️

This is alot of hot air from Trump. He won’t pull out of NATO because he wants leverage over Europe and for Europeans to buy US weapons and not build up Europe’s defense capacity. Why? Well that is in Putin’s interest

One of the greatest cons ever played by MAGA/Trump was that they were going to get tough on China. Here is Trump defending the Chinese helping the Iranians fight the US military: he despises the troops serving under his command.

"Europe is investing in Ukraine and Ukraine is bolstering European security. With a growing awareness that the USA is for now a busted-flush on European security, this friendship will have to grow on both sides." And more about the strategic air war and the machine war.

My free weekend update is out. More and more Ukraine and European states are being drawn together, as the US is both unreliable and too supportive of Putin's dictatorship. The fate of this "beautiful friendship" will determine the fate of Europe's future security. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

What Trump broke with the Iran war can't be fixed. He got the US into a bad strategic position he can't get out of. Many are deeply invested in not acknowledging that. Because it means they've been wrong. Who knows how long it'll take for reality to fully hit. But when it does, it'll be a doozy.

The Trump administration is flailing. If they hold "all the cards" the Iranians would be desperate to meet and talk--but the Iranians seem to be stringing this out.

Trump is threatening Spain over its refusal to allow air bases be used for the Iran war. Meanwhile, Russia provides Iran with targeting info and intelligence to kill Americans. Trump just invited Putin to the G20. www.reuters.com/world/pentag...

If this happens, European states would be better with the USA out of NATO than within it.

In my piece from the other day I mentioned that the oil markets seemed surprisingly optimistic. Just put together this longer piece on that phenomenon. I wonder if overall we have discounted the possibility of a real economic crisis occurring? substack.com/@phillipspob...

The US government is now one of if not the most corrupt government on earth.

Russian Foreign Ministry has officially stated that Trump/USA has invited Putin to go to the G20 summit. The US is working overtime to rehabilitate the Russian dictator and European states need to take this into consideration. kyivindependent.com/russia-claim...