Das Land ohne Marine gewinnt den Seekrieg — hätte ich das vorher gesagt am 24.2.2022, man hätte mich für verrückt erklärt. Aber hey, hier sind wir. Und es wird geflissentlich ignoriert von den „üblichen Verdächtigen“. Bloss nicht, dass die normale Bevölkerung das erfährt.

Ukraine is winning the war at sea, #fellas

My free weekend update is out. This week confirmed the basic truth that Ukraine is winning the war at sea. Offensively the Ukrainians took the war into a vital Russian naval base and attacked a Russian tanker at sea. Russia is far more vulnerable than many admit. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

Are you listening Europe?

„Militäranalysten im Jahr 2025: Das russische Militär hat sich angepasst, ist unaufhaltsam vorgerückt und wird Pokrowsk bald einnehmen. Historiker im Jahr 2055: Der russische Feldzug von 2025 war einer der selbstzerstörerischsten in der modernen Militärgeschichte.“ 1 Jahr in 4 Bildern 👇🤷‍♂️😏

Roll out the historians early. Maybe they could instill some backbone in European and Belgian politicians. #historians

Can anyone help identify this mysteriously blacked out figure from the Epstein files?

Military analysts in 2025--The Russian military has adapted and pressed forward inexorably and will soon take Pokrovsk. Historians in 2055. The Russian military campaign of 2025 was one of the most self-destructive in modern military history.

Listening to this right now. It's very good and a palliative for all the bullshit.

Strong advice #fellas Buy your loved one a gift subscription to the O’Brien Substack, like I did tonight. You’ll understand how Ukraine wins, while the chumps focus on micro bits of non information about who takes to who.

Putins Offensive seit dem Sommer ist eine Katastrophe, nichts erreicht außer eigenen Verlusten. Der Ölpreis ist unten, russische Finanzen und Wirtschaft hängen in den Seilen. Putin setzt auf rhetorische Kraftmeierei und vor allen auf Spaltung zwischen USA und Europäern.

Hi All, Timothy Snyder and I held a Substack Live a little while ago, and ranged widely on the Russo-Ukraine war. It ended up being divided into two parts. Here is part one where we talk about views of Russia, Ukraine and war in 2022. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

Today a Substack live: Phillips P. O'Brien and Timothy Snyder, two academics and intellectuals whose work - as my followers undoubtedly know - I highly value. It will be interesting. 16.00h in the Netherlands - CET (UTC+1): Central European Time, used in Amsterdam during winter.

A very interesting article that challenges the lazy idea that events were always going to u fold as they have. By demonstrating the importance of choices made, it is also a hopeful view. We have agency.

Hi All, Sent out a free piece. The Chinese have transformed their standing recently, and some attribute it to long-term planning. Actually, it is more down to the disastrous leadership choices of Trump and Putin. Sometimes it really pays to be lucky more than good. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

On both right and left, there's anger about the recent assessments of Russia's threat to the UK and the rest of Europe, and about the need for us to prepare to meet it. There's a lot I could say here (as my students know), but most of it boils down to two things. 🧵

Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump have many things in common--but historically one thing will tie them together more than any other. They have both done more to weaken their own countries than any two US or Russian leaders for a century (if not longer).

I wonder who @seva.bsky.social is thinking about here. 🤔

Third part of my review of the year, a few things what I wrote, starting with the one that was the most fun to do, what Brussels really thinks of the UK - when it does... have a feeling I'll be referring to this one a few more times next year... encompass-europe.com/comment/ever...

US government is going to extreme lengths to help Putin and hurt Ukraine. Now threatening European states that if they use Russian assets to help Ukraine, they will have to pay it all back. Trump is desperate to give Putin his money back.

Trump thinks (knows!) that Putin wants all of Ukraine, gifts photographs of them together to his closest collaborators. Guess what present he wants to give his Russian pal.

A virtual event at the Atlantic Council that I suggest you attend. I know one of the scheduled Ukrainian speakers, just had a long discussion with him about the war and Ukrainian strategy, and can assure you he has a great grasp of the true state of things. www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/how-ca...

Implications of this leak is huge; Trump knows that Putin want all of #Ukraine, that a "deal" now is only temporary. T has known this even before the Alaska summit. This means he has been helping Putin all year. Whatever "guarantees" Trump is offering Ukraine now, is fake. THIS IS TREASON!

Trump knows Russia is planning to conquer all of Ukraine.

Just released this piece. The VA story released yesterday about the inner workings of the Trump administration is the most important yet. For Ukraine and it supporters it confirms that Putin is planning to take all of Ukraine (and Trump is therefore helping him). open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

Great article by @johnsipher.bsky.social . People like to call Trump erratic or mercurial. However when it comes to Putin and Russia…he is eerily consistent. tomorrowsaffairs.com/a-tempting-m...

Nailed it. 👇

Just sent out this free piece. Its being said that what Trump is doing with Putin is similar to what FDR did with Stalin at Yalta. Nothing could be further from the truth. Trump could easily weaken a dictatorship and strengthen a democracy if he wanted. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

All Trump supporters must acknowledge this. Their backing of the president means that they support the forced transfer of millions of Ukrainians from a democracy to a corrupt and brutal dictatorship. This is the America you have made. Own it.

"Then in just the last week, the Ukrainians executed a military operation that pushed the Russians back about twice the distance as it had taken the Russians to advance in more than four months. It's interesting that this story has not yet appeared in the New York Times.'

Great piece!

Just sent out my free weekend update. Was quite a week in the land war, started with great doom for Ukraine and ended with the Ukrainians pushing the Russians away from Kupyansk and advancing in a week twice as much as the Russians advanced in 4 months. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

Those sanctions on Russian oil Trump got public praise for? Never really materialized. No enforcement on Russia’s customers. As critics warned, the Trump admin pressures Ukraine but never puts real pressure on Russia, especially not if it requires effort. Because they’d like to see Russia succeed.

"... Btw, this is one reason I believe Europeans must now stop listening to official American voices, as ultimately they will tell Europe to do what Trump wants." Precisely on the point. Europe must resolutely fight the imperialist #Putin – without #Trump, but together with #Ukraine. Now!

Just sent out this piece. The whole idea that Trump's sanctions on Russian oil were meant to hurt Putin is collapsing on all fronts. Indian and Chinese purchases are up and there are no secondary sanctions to be found. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

"Donald Trump may have forced his allies to spend more on defense, but his treatment of Japan, South Korea, and NATO has seriously damaged longstanding ties." We are no longer a reliable ally. Why would they trust us now?

People who are saying that Trump's new National Security Strategy should not be taken seriously should ask themselves this: Was it right or wrong not to take Project 2025 seriously?

This may be the whole thing: apple.news/AUzZX_Vp8RSy...

Remember when we heard that Trump's "sanctions" were going to lead to large reductions of Russian crude by India. Well, the opposite has happened. Indian purchases of Russian crude surged in November. energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/oil-and...

Great new review of my book, War and Power: Who Wins War and Why, in the @wsj.com The reviewer does a great job outlining the argument and I'm grateful he read it so closely. Here is a link and an excerpt. www.wsj.com/arts-culture...

Important point: China, not US, now decides the outcome of global conflicts. When fighting starts, existing military supplies are rapidly depleted, and the side that can replenish faster wins. China’s capacity to do so (and to supply others) vastly exceeds that of any other country, including US.

The moral and intellectual poverty of the USA today in one exchange.

Key take-outs👇Very disturbing. #China could single handedly determine the outcome of the Russo-Ukrainian war, for boths warring parties. China would win a long-war against the #US, as the latter has no drone production capasity.

"It is just another example of how the US has placed itself in a position where it lose a long-war with China."

A new free piece. China actually has the great whip-hand in the Russo-Ukrainian war. It supplies the parts which make UAVs for both sides. China could cripple Ukrainian drone production if it wanted. That is real power and we better hope China does not use it. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

Russians are now boasting about Trump being on their side.

This and standing together in the EU. We either stand together or hang alone.

This man speaks truth.

✅✅✅

Just sent out this post. For Europeans to start looking after their own security one step seems vital, they need to stop genuflecting to official Washington, which always "hopewashes" the policies of Donald Trump. Unless Europe can think for itself, it will fail. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...