Mario Draghi on rising weaponisation: "So far, Europe's response has fallen into two traps: uncoordinated national efforts or blind faith that market forces will build new sectors. The first can never deliver scale. The second is impossible when others distort markets and tilt the playing field."

It is with heavy heart (and, unfortunately, deep affection) that I must reshare a snippet from the 1980s masterpiece “Yes, Prime Minister”, in relation to Russia’s drone attack on a NATO ally.

"Right now, 90% of people in immigration detention are in a facility operated by a private detention corporation. GEO Group and CoreCivic are the two main corporations, and we’ve heard from their earnings calls that they’re very excited about getting more money & expand detention."

Europe needs a crash program for a mass-producible, low- to medium-cost cruise missile with a range of 500-1,000 km and a payload capacity above 100 kg. Europe has forgotten that things can move quickly when there is political will and when idiosyncratic industrial interests are set aside. 1/2

@abenewman.bsky.social nails it: human beings, firms, investors and pretty much everyone don’t like uncertainty. The repeal of tariffs (if it happens) won’t undo the fear that’s been created 👇

We will all be next eventually. No university can assume it will be safe from the whims of the autocrat. An unprecedented authoritarian assault on higher education, but also an unprecedented assault on basic sanctity of contracts & the rule of law in general.

Incredible map of private/public ICE prisons by size and location. The cluster of enormous private immigration prisons in Louisiana is really something. www.bloomberg.com/features/202...

"In their Trump-induced panic, European military leaders and pundits have spent the last few months talking about all the combat power that Europe does not have. But they have failed to evaluate and consolidate the combat power that Europe does have." www.foreignaffairs.com/north-americ...

🚨🚨 Major scoop from @andybounds.bsky.social: @ec.europa.eu is now issuing burner phones and basic laptops to some US-bound staff to avoid the risk of espionage, a measure traditionally reserved for trips to #China.🧵 www.ft.com/content/20d0...

Happy Ayo Edebiri day to all! Such an honor to welcome this Dorchester girl home & chat about how BPS & Boston shaped her path 🙌

I've been waiting for this one to come out! @quinnslobodian.com's previous book, "Crack Up Capitalism," sparked my own work. If you want to understand the origins of our current political crisis, read everything he writes. Pre-order! Book club! bookshop.org/p/books/haye...

markets soar as investors realize that mommy didn't actually disappear, she was just hiding behind her hands

3) Related to #2, pending massive fiscal expansion in Europe needed to finance continental defense will enlarge the pool of euro assets as alternatives to UST (nowhere near enough to rival UST, but the market for euro securities will continue growing, esp. if --> fiscal union) 3/9

this is a staggering amount of money to build camps—suggesting that building & running a gulag will be the primary function of the otherwise gutted Trump-state in last fiscal yr: "D.H.S. allocated about $3.4 billion for the entire custody operation overseen by ICE" www.nytimes.com/2025/04/07/u...

Join @dschwarzer.bsky.social to discuss the future of #EU enlargement and the prospects for #Ukraine's membership. 🗓️ April 9, 3:30-5:00pm 🔗 ces.fas.harvard.edu/events/2025/... @bertelsmannfdn.bsky.social @kaijaschilde.bsky.social @cmikulaschek.bsky.social

Yet another renowned #institution being dismantled to the ground. This time the Wilson Center where I had the privilege to work for the past 2y. I couldn’t be prouder of the work me and my team did. #AI will never replace the impactful research and scholarship the Wilson Center is respected for.

For those listening to this rant, those numbers are not tariffs. The European Union, e.g., has weighted average tariff rates of ~ 3% and arguably lower on US goods. So they are clearly including VATs and who knows what else? This false reciprocity is nonsense. For more: www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

Join the Pardee School of Global Studies @bostonu.bsky.social for the discussion series "Decentering Europe: Europe and Africa" in March and April. See link for more information and to register. Open to the public. www.bu.edu/european/202...

🎦 @wilsoncentergep.bsky.social’s Robin Quinville speaks with @kaijaschilde.bsky.social about how the recent surge in European defense spending is part of a long-term trend and explores the EU's pivotal role in strengthening the defense industry. ⤵️ www.wilsoncenter.org/video/eus-ro...

My book "The Political Economy of European Security"(2017) explains + predicts how transatlantic market competition accelerates EU-level defense. In lieu of overdue oped, here's my +Hellemeier's “Markets in Defense of Eur: Providing Public Goods in Euro. Defense.” www.econstor.eu/handle/10419....

An important moment. "Arms companies from the US, UK and Turkey will be excluded from a new €150bn EU defence funding push unless their home countries sign defence and security pacts with Brussels." www.ft.com/content/eb9e...

“Canada is in advanced talks with the European Union to join the bloc’s new project to expand its military industry, a move that would allow Canada to be part of building European fighter jets and other military equipment” www.nytimes.com/2025/03/19/w... www.nytimes.com/2025/03/19/w...

🇫🇷 armament offensive incoming. “Those who buy Patriot should be offered the new-generation Franco-Italian SAMP/T. Those who buy the F-35, should be offered the Rafale,” French president Macron says. www.politico.eu/article/macr...

The Trump administration’s most influential think tank, The Heritage Foundation, is receiving proposals from Polish & Hungarian illiberal groups on how to shape the future of the European Union. The proposals, obtained by VSquare, include dismantling key EU institutions and renaming the entire bloc.

Great thread from Jonas which lays out just how dramatically the quality of Germanys spending package has been improved. As for the legal challenge to Tuesdays vote: it’s already rejected by Germanys constitutional court. Germanys fiscal straitjacket is effectively going down next week.

🚨🚨 #EUrearmament plans unveiling: Brussels has proposed buying arms collectively on behalf of EU member states, in what would be a major shift in response to President Donald Trump’s disruption of US foreign policy. 🧵https://www.ft.com/content/29145854-13e8-42a6-b2e0-eeb786c8b55e

A total disaster. This will decimate area & language studies at universities across 🇺🇸, including @uwmadison.bsky.social. European Studies here will lose staff & most of our funding/programming. It would be nice to hear something - anything - in the way of public outcry from our university leaders.

The EU is hitting back hard against Trump's global tariffs on steel & aluminium which took effect this morning. 2 stages of retaliatory tariffs on €26 billion in EU exports to the US will enter force over next 2 months This is a much firmer EU response than in Trump's 1st term

Notably, in today's "First 100 days of the new Commission" speech by @vonderleyen.ec.europa.eu, she explicitly names the UK, Norway and Canada as partners for the ReArm initiative:

This could include another next Generation EU facility - €800bn or more - for defence. Or the seizure of Russia's €200bn+ of frozen assets parked in Euroclear. Nothing is off the table. Officials describe this as the EU's “Darwinian moment” - it will either adapt, or die 5/

Making €bn available for Ukraine & the EU's own security & defence is not a sufficient response. But it is a necessary one. So the EU has unleashed national budgets, the EU budget, the EU's borrowing capacity & private capital via the EIB, to enable much more defence spending 3/

1/ In 🇩🇪 and elsewhere the discussion on whether or not the F35 should be cancelled or not starts to gain traction. Can we afford to cancel it? Can we replace it? Complicated, and the discussion would be more credible if not led by commercial rivals of Lockheed-Martin. www.welt.de/politik/deut...

Big announcement from Macron: "I have decided to open the strategic debate on the protection of our allies on the European continent through our nuclear deterrent.”

French Senator Claude Malhuret: "Washington has become Nero’s court, with an incendiary emperor, submissive courtiers and a jester high on ketamine... We were at war with a dictator, we are now at war with a dictator backed by a traitor."

Janne is referring to the ODIN and ALIS softwares that need to communicate with servers in the US, described in this article. In its F-35 deal Finland also made sure that hardware maintenance and repairs can be made in Finland. The Finnish company Patria becomes a major producer of F-35 parts.

Germany taking on €500 billion of debt, with defense spending above 1% of GDP exempted from the debt brake, is the fiscal equivalent of Japan pursuing nuclear weapons. It both reflects the ways the world has changed in the past few weeks, and further accelerates those changes.

MASSIVE FISCAL PACKAGE OUT OF BERLIN: 12-20%+ of GDP. - 500 billion fund for public investment - All defence spending above 1% of GDP not counted for debt brake. - Federal states can borrow 0.35% p.y. for investment. Germany is back - economically and militarily. 1/x

CDU/CSU &SPD have just proposed a sea change in German fiscal policy: - defence spending above 1% of GDP exempt from debt brake - 10-year €500bn special fund for infrastructure - looser debt rules for states - further debt-brake reform in new Bundestag

How du sprech 'Money Printer Go Brrrrrrr' in Deutsche?

"Eutelsat said it was in talks with European governments about providing additional satellite connectivity in Ukraine, as investors bet that the French satellite operator could replace Elon Musk’s Starlink in the country." www.ft.com/content/f4cc...

Interesting history from JD Vance here, maybe I hallucinated the 1,000 or so non-American NATO ally troops who died in Afghanistan. www.reuters.com/world/us/jd-...

5/ Europeans need to act fast. Seize the Russian assets and use some of the money for artillery and air defence interceptor production so there’s no gap once the US contribution to nato runs out

Exclusive: Inside the Strategic Crypto Reserve

On the other hand, if you need an investment strategy, euro defense stonks

France can't get from 2% to 3.5% more spending on defence without cutting somewhere else. It can't borrow more (debt-to-GDP is well over 100%) and it can't tax more (trust me I've lived there). Either France benefits from EU-level borrowing or it cuts social spending or people work more.

The plan emerging from London seems to be: 1. 🇪🇺, 🇬🇧 and 🇺🇦 agree on the contours of a deal and present it to 🇺🇸 2. An initial month-long partial truce to gauge 🇷🇺 intentions and build confidence. 3. If the truce holds, a ceasefire starts, backed by a 🇪🇺🇬🇧 force

Agree. Nothing about yesterday was new. Even in the face of all evidence over a decade most observers could not bear/were embarrassed to consider the only explanation. But the dominant CW was self-reinforcing + needed a clarifying focal shock. I’m not sure why the 2018 Helsinki Summit wasn’t enough.

An admin throwing away all its leverage. "Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth last week ordered U.S. Cyber Command to stand down from all planning against Russia, including offensive digital actions, according to three people familiar with the matter." therecord.media/hegseth-orde...

Reality check. Thank you, Financial Times.