💥Linked to the pro-Kremlin Doppelganger disinformation campaign, the Russian hosting firm Aéza has been sanctioned by the US, Australia, and the UK and its founders charged in Russia. Yet despite operating servers in Europe, the EU has taken no action.

It’s -1°C, but it feels like -5°C. It’s 2025, but it feels like 1938.

This should once and for all remove the "Russia has justified security concerns because of NATO expansion"-narrative. Russia's concern with NATO was always that it would prevent Russia's imperial war. NATO was never the cause of the war. The NATO-argument was meant to slow support for Ukraine.

These declassified exchanges between Prez and W Bush in which I completely deny Ukraine's existence just prove the West provoked Russia by claiming it does.

Happy Greatest Geopolitical Catastrophe of the 20th Century Day to all who celebrate!

"But my all-time favorite song for the season cuts even deeper — Tom Waits’ 'Christmas Card from a Hooker in Minneapolis' off the 1978 album 'Blue Valentine.'" A Christmas Song for People Who Don't Do Happy Endings:

Was about to share one of my favorite Christmas stories, but then I stumbled upon this one, and well, it chose itself. An absolutely lovely story for this year.

“The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the convinced Communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction and the distinction between true and false no longer exist.” This holiday (re)reading rec: Hannah Arendt’s The Origins of Totalitarianism.

2025 showed the transatlantic relations we knew it is over. NSS made it official. Today’s signals confirm NSS should be taken seriously. Europe must abandon fantasy of fake peace, do everything necessary to help Ukraine defeat Russia, and ready itself for fight. Delay only raises the cost.

The pronoun for a Russian general is "was/were".

Useful idiot tourism, now with citizenship. Includes shortages, surveillance, and consequences. Tara, here’s a free history reminder: being valuable to Russian propaganda is a temporary condition. Enjoy no rights, no refund, no exit.

Moving read by Timothy Snyder on Carol of the Bells--its erased Ukrainian origins,cultural theft & why remembering where things come from matters,especially during Russia’s war in Ukraine.Glory to Ukrainian heroes who pay the price so others can sing unthinkingly. snyder.substack.com/p/o-generous...

One podcast I stuck with throughout 2025 was @restisclassified.bsky.social. If you’re curious about the world of espionage, it’s an absolutely terrific listen: excellent hosts, deep analysis of cases from around the globe, & sharp wit. My fave episodes were about Adolf Tolkachev and Oleg Gordievsky.

Hi All, Timothy Snyder and I held a Substack Live a little while ago, and ranged widely on the Russo-Ukraine war. It ended up being divided into two parts. Here is part one where we talk about views of Russia, Ukraine and war in 2022. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

It turns out the question is not, in fact, “unresolved”.

Weeeeell, not getting my hopes up without a lot more sourcing, but I wonder how many letters to Santa this outcome features in this year. (Not Averyanov’s, I suspect.)

This morning. Again.

This has never been done before by anyone.

📅 Dec 17 | 8:30 AM ET What can #Moldova2025Elections teach us about countering foreign information manipulation? Join DFRLab’s @victoriaolari.bsky.social & @buziashvili.bsky.social for a discussion and report launch under the FIMI ISAC’s FDEI project: bit.ly/49cY1lG

My second post about researchers’ rights to scrape data under DSA Article 40.12 is up! This is dense with legal arguments for researchers to use if they get sued. Or to show their lawyers before that. www.techpolicy.press/how-the-mean... verfassungsblog.de/dsa-fine-x-r...

It's Monday. You might hate your job. But at least you're not a russian general about to tell Putin that you lost the city you've claimed to have captured 4 times.

If Europe fails to act and use Russian assets for Ukraine’s benefit, these funds will ultimately bankroll Russia’s war economy. This is the most important topic this week. And this piece on the issue by Bill Browder, architect of the Magnitsky Act, is essential reading.

But how did Belarus agree to stop something they denied doing? Asking for a friend. Below is a denial issued five days earlier. Classic playbook. Again. On repeat: 1) create a problem. 2) offer a solution in exchange for something you didn’t have five minutes ago.

Putin: "We've taken Kupyansk" Zelensky: "Here I am in Kupyansk"

Euroclear holds roughly €17 billion on Russian soil, which could be seized in retaliation. But under the new EU plan, Euroclear will be able to "offset" the losses with the €30 billion that its Russian counterpart, the National Settlement Depository (NSD), has on EU soil.

The Europeans have cards and are finally playing them. A very good backgrounder here:

A terrifying reminder of Russian infiltration in Western Europe & sectors, & how influence is exercised. Must do: 1)Prosecute those issuing threats, intermediaries & sanctions-evasion or undeclared foreign-agent activity. 2)Double down 🇷🇺 sanctions. 3)Double down 🇺🇦 support. archive.is/2025.12.08-1...

This is accurate. Russia has succeeded very well in convincing media in Europe and the UK that the conflict is far more one-sided in Russia’s favour than is genuinely the case - and that contributes to the assumption that it should be settled in Russia’s favour sooner rather than later.

The new US National Security Strategy, in its predictable and characteristic ugliness, is a good occasion for Europe to finally let go of the time-consuming transatlantic crisis management efforts and start focusing on a proper and proactive own strategy instead.

Russia could be defeated with proper European support.

Still early with more to unfold, but one thing is clear: this is what the rule of law looks like in a democratic system. A breach occurred (deception, ad opacity, blocked access),the public interest was affected, the enforcement mechanism established by democratic mandate is functioning as intended.

As far as I can see, this nat sec strategy is far harsher on Europe than on Russia. There is no mention of a threat from Russia or of deterrence, only that "re-establishing strategic stability" is a priority. Europe is cast as a major threat to freedom. A radical, dangerous document.

I may be overdoing it with the optimism, but I think it’s good to have if black on white. Makes it easier for (or forces) European politicians to adjust. Also, the policy spelled out in the strategy to interfere in European affairs for the benefit of the far right hopefully backfires.

But this time it will be different. It was not previous 936483 times, but this time for real, for real.

Remember, remember the fifth of December and never surrender your nukes.

OTD in 1994 Russia signed the Budapest memo, guaranteeing Ukraine's territorial integrity in exchange for their nukes, 44 Ukrainian Tu-22 heavy bombers and 1,068 Kh-55 cruise missiles. Which have been fired at Ukraine in this war.

"The European Union will add three GRU officers from Russia’s military unit 29155 to its sanctions lists...The officers, all of whom specialize in cyber operations...were featured in The Insider’s investigation Hidden Bear: The GRU hackers of Russia’s most notorious kill squad." t.co/8vdZPrjzem

No matter how often it is repeated, what Moscow thinks "peace talks" and "ceasefire agreements" are for still confuses some Western counterparts. Russia repeatedly gets what it wants because the other side focuses on ending the war, but Russia instead wants to win it. www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cw...

Just beautiful. By @michaeldweiss.bsky.social

🇬🇪BBC has confirmed that Georgian Dream used a WW1 chemical agent, Bromobenzyl cyanide, against peaceful protesters. People suffered chemical burns, respiratory distress and long-term injuries. www.bbc.com/news/article...?

It’s become clear that Georgian police used chemical weapons against their own citizens. Protesting is a core democratic right, this is unacceptable.   We should sanction Georgian Dream’s leadership, fund independent media, and support the democratic voices.   The real dream of Georgia is European 🇪🇺

According to a BBC investigation, the Georgian Dream regime used a WWI-era chemical agent called “camite” during last year’s protests. This finally explains the symptoms many of us experienced both on the night of the crackdown and in the following months. www.bbc.com/news/article...

“Georgia's authorities used a World War One-era chemical weapon to quell anti-government protesters last year, evidence gathered by the BBC suggests.” www.bbc.com/news/article...

Brutal: Die georgische Polizei hat Wasserwerfern im letzten Jahr Bromobenzyl Cyanide (Camite) zugesetzt, ein Giftstoff, der im 1. Weltkrieg eingesetzt wurde. Er ist 10x stärker als CS-Tränengas, Nebenwirkungen dauern bis zu 30 Tage. #GeorgiaProtests www.bbc.com/news/article...

Here's a vizualization by German magazine of Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory on a scale of other countries, posted by NEXTA. x.com/nexta_tv/sta...

This week could be pivotal for diplomacy. It is clear that Russia does not want peace, and therefore we need to make Ukraine as strong as possible. My doorstep ahead of today’s Foreign Affairs Council on Defence ↓

All 19 Member States submitted their National Defence Investment plans for SAFE 🇪🇺 15 Member States have included support for Ukraine🇺🇦. More than expected! And we talk about billions, not millions. SAFE is vital for EU defence readiness and our industrial base. #SAFE

To cut off that fuel, Europe must: -Enforce sanctions fully & close loopholes -Shut down the shadow fleet in the Baltic -Send more long-range munitions, incl. #FreeTaurus -Increase ammo & air defense support, incl. #SkyShieldNow -Use frozen RU assets to fund Ukraine’s defense, incl. those in Belgium