Yours truly threat-modeled Russia's new super-app. TL;DR: you should probably be concerned even if you live outside Russia and never download the app.

🧵War correspondent James Verini has covered several conflicts over the decades. What he sees in Ukraine is clear: Ukraine is winning the war, and Putin has no good options in a disaster of his own making.

We never seen "Putin threaten genocide". We have seen: -Deportations -Killing civilians & targeting infra to set conditions of life calculated to bring destruction of 🇺🇦 & 🇺🇦ians -Genocidal rhetoric -Forced adoptions -Arrests for speaking 🇺🇦 -Forced change of citizenship... But no "threats"...

Dutch journalists have tracked frigate HNLMS Evertsen (F805) live during combat operations in east Mediterranean. By sending a Bluetooth tracker to a sailor with the official military post they managed to get live positions for several days. Dutch Navy has since adjusted protocols.

Olympic deception: Russia’s doping program is run by the same FSB team that poisoned Navalny The Insider exposes the FSB directorate that handles both athletic doping and political assassinations. theins.press/en/inv/291614

Who gets it right? The Baltics (again).

How russia uses Orthodox Church as an arm of propaganda and espionage and how #Estonia combats real life war-nuns and spying priests balticsentinel.eu/8451357/esto...

Knowing Russian is not a waste of time — being able to read Russian propaganda and Z Telegram channels in the original right now is so much more enjoyable than reading Dostoevsky and Tolstoy.

Hello Sergey! 😉

Hope Hungarians will vote out Russia today and take back their country. Ruszkik haza!

Why measure defense spending as a percentage of GDP if those percentages are spent on weapons that can be taken out by $200 drones? Shouldn't there be some efficiency measure included when defense spending is compared?

NEW REPORT: “Uncovering Webloc: An Analysis of Penlink’s Ad-based Geolocation Surveillance Tech” Our research confirms that ad-based surveillance tech Webloc is used by military, intelligence, and law enforcement agencies across the globe. citizenlab.ca/research/ana...

A very good critique of Mearsheimer’s “unrealistic theorizing” here.

Notes from the much larger and more significant war: in March Russia gained no net territory in Ukraine, and lost more soldiers than it was able to replace.

Days - 1500 Casualties - 1,380,000🌻 Economy - ⬇️💩🚽 ☢️threats - 🥱 War crimes - ♾ NATO - +🇫🇮&🇸🇪 Arrest Warrants- ↗️ Warships- ⛴️⏬ Aircraft - 🚀💥 Submarine - Sub marine Oil refineries - 🔥 Oil exports - ⬇️40% Dead generals - 20+ Army - Stuck Trolls - Coping Red lines - Crossed I remain a master strategist.

Maybe it’s time for Ukraine to offer the US security guarantees in exchange of the US handing one of the states to Iran.

Not sure Sergey will be picking up when FM Szijjarto calls today to say “Hello Sergey!”

Not that we didn’t suspect this, but now we have a hard evidence of betrayal.

When analyzing the Russo-Ukrainian war we should also look at the trajectory. Look at Ukraine's capabilities now and compare with one, two, three, four years ago. Then twist it around and you can imagine the capabilities in one, two, three, four years. Ukraine is on its way to become a great power.

I'm happy to share what I've been working on for a while: a book on the Russian General Staff. The most important military institution in Russia has not had any English book on it since 2006. Now it's time. Sharing is caring, but pre-order is good karma (link below).

Massive respect to @szabolcspanyi.bsky.social and all the journalists fighting every day all over the world to do their job despite threats and growing repression.

New: We looked into the large-scale phishing campaign that's targeting Signal users and found digital evidence pointing to Russian involvement – and a connection to previous attacks in Ukraine and Moldova. Story with @alexejhock.bsky.social for @correctiv.org correctiv.org/en/fact-chec...

Finding a way of cutting out of EU would be a solid next step.

To tilt Hungarian election, the Russians proposed staging an assassination attempt www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/0...

Finnish President Alexander Stubb says Brexit was a “colossal mistake” “It’s like amputating your leg without medical reason for doing it”

😆

🇺🇦🇪🇪 Ukrainian-Estonian company Black Forest Systems has created the SHADOX reconnaissance and strike UAV for infantry units, - Militarnyi This is a complex that is designed in such a way that anyone without FPV skills can use it.

Greece' shipping oligarchs fatally undermined the maritime services ban that should've been in the EU's 20th sanctions package. They're loyal only to money. If that means helping Putin, they fall over themselves doing it. No one should celebrate them... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/greek-olig...

1/8🧵 #US #Europe Excerpt's from OBrien's weekly👇 Remember the false narrative of 'Strong #Russia Weak #Ukraine' from 1 year ago? The reality is starting to sink in; Ukraine is stronger, and European security is dependent on Ukraine, not the other way around. ⤵️

“The job listing calls for people with a background in acting, improv, sketch, or theater work of any kind…” “…it’s looking for people who can essentially ‘test the limits of the world’s top LLMs’ understanding’ by teaching the models how to recognize or replicate human tone and emotions”

Bizarre but true: it is March 2026, and yet twice this month at two different events in two different countries I have had audience questions from individuals who are still adamant that Russia only invades its neighbours because NATO makes them do it. They are still out there, folks.

We are entering the next stage of the strategic breal-up between Europe and the US:

Lost in translation: How Russia’s new elite hit squad was compromised by an idiotic lapse in tradecraft @christogrozev.bsky.social, @dobrokhotov.bsky.social and @michaeldweiss.bsky.social detail how hubris and Google Translate exposed Russia's most secretive assassination unit, Center 795.

OTD in 1941 the US lend lease act was signed. It merely prolonged the war by allowing UK to continue fight Nazis instead of seeking peace

I guess we're real now!

X suspends 800m accounts in one year amid ‘massive’ scale of manipulation attempts Social media company tells MPs of continual fight against state-backed efforts, with Russia being most prolific www.theguardian.com/technology/2...

We are aware of recent reports regarding targeted phishing attacks that have resulted in account takeovers of some Signal users, including government officials and journalists. We take this very seriously. 1/7

Russian state hackers are carrying out a global campaign to compromise Signal and WhatsApp accounts belonging to government officials and military personnel, Dutch intelligence warned Monday.

💥Moscow has sent a task team to interfere in Hungary's April 2026 elections, @vsquare.bsky.social has learned from multiple European national security sources. The US has also shared intelligence with allies on the GRU-linked task force overseen by Sergei Kiriyenko. vsquare.org/putins-gru-l...

Lawrence Freedman: "If Russia has all the cards, why has it achieved so little?" "in the past year Russia suffered roughly 400,000 casualties, including killed, wounded and missing, to acquire around 0.8 percent of Ukrainian territory." www.nytimes.com/2026/03/04/o...

Comparative analysis mapping what happens to your words across ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude, Grok, and DeepSeek.

A compelling idea worth deep exploration.

Tomorrow everyone will be asking: when will the Russo-Ukrainian war end? The right question is: what can we do to make the Russian invasion fail?

This was the best negotiation with the Russians during the entire war. It was conducted by Ukrainian border guard Roman Hrybov on February 24, 2022.

It's four years since Russia wanted to take Kyiv in three days. They failed and they'll keep failing. Slava Ukraini! 💙💛

And now, Foreign Policy have kindly made this short piece available without a paywall - foreignpolicy.com/2026/02/23/r...

OTD in 2022, Russian ambassador to US said "Russia recognises Donbas as a part of Ukraine, does not have any claims on Ukrainian lands, does not have plans of any attack". So you can believe us now when we promise to stop.

1/ Far too many wargames and simulations of how Russia might move against a NATO neighbour treat the front-line states as a military vacuum, or an empty chessboard where it is only the moves of Russia and of slowly-arriving NATO reinforcements that count. But that's far from the truth.