Another day, another round of Chinese monetary saber rattling. Top economists are arguing that now, with the dollar looking weak and untrustworthy, China should seize the moment, relax capital controls, & unleash the yuan. A few quick thoughts 1/ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Our woodburning fireplaces are our family's winter therapy. I couldn't imagine surviving the season without them. There is nothing like a real fire. www.wsj.com/real-estate/...

Mine was white, but this was my first set of wheels. The fuel economy was so much worse than what this ad suggests.

With apologies to Amy Poehler, *this* was a "Good Hang", with Josh Lipsky and Jessie Yin. We discuss: - What's going on with USD? - Will the euro or won't it? - The Warsh-dollar bounce ...and lots more. www.atlanticcouncil.org/commentary/p...

Brutal chart from @noahbarkin.bsky.social and Gregor Williams. German exports to China grew for nearly two decades - and are now in free fall.

Marginal spending growth may be slowing, but the US remains the global consumer of last resort—overall retail sales were still up 4% year-over-year in 2025, and import volumes have gone from strength to strength despite the White House's attempts to wreak havoc.

It shocks me to say this, and I reserve my right to retract this statement at any point in the future and as soon as tomorrow but: it is fun having this guy on my team.

No, this is unacceptable. Get your problem set done -- Olympic medals can wait.

Some brutal charts in the new Rhodium Group note, updating their previous research on Germany and China Shock 2.0 Food for thought ahead of Merz's trip to China in 2 weeks.

As @michaelpettis.bsky.social says at least 1x per week, China cannot maintain a direct or indirect export surplus and also avoid acquiring some non-RMB asset. If not USTs, then something else, and if not USD denominated then -> ⬆️ deficits in other countries -> ⬆️ protectionist policy there.

LOL A+ post

More anti-dollar guidance & rhetoric from Chinese officials, this one instructing state-owned banks to curtail US Treasury purchases, citing risks of overdependence on market prone to sharp swings I'm sure these concerns are legitimate, but this is also about feeding the de-dollarization narrative

Speaking of cheap books that can fit in your pocket .... (If you're not interested in Russian politics, there are more than 750 other Very Short Introductions) www.nytimes.com/2026/02/06/b...

Ice dancing: the rhythmic gymnastics of the Winter Olympics.

The shift in NBC's Olympic coverage model from broadcast to on-demand replays of particular events through the Peacock app is symptomatic of the atomization of formerly collective experience borne of hyperindividualism and demand for immediate satiation, splintering the commonweal. In this essay I w

Just checking in on American Bitcoin, the Eric Trump venture that is a leveraged bet on Bitcoin.

Quite literally the $64,000 question: Should you buy Bitcoin? 😄

Bitcoin price plunge makes it interesting to see how this affects Tether’s ability to redeem its stable coins for dollars although I assume they’ve also been shifting into gold … their ability to guarantee 1:1 on demand seems to have been grounded in the value of their crypto holdings.

Assigning this gem by @mcopelov.bsky.social & @tompepinsky.com to my grad class. Sold on the title alone. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

This year I made two big changes to my graduate International Political Economy syllabus: 1) I leaned in to money and capital as organizing themes, and 2) I assigned (nearly) all books. Here's our reading list, ft. Karl Polanyi, Benjamin Cohen, @stefeich.bsky.social, Ngaire Woods, J.C. Sharman ...

Link: thetwocents.substack.com/p/the-safe-a...

"With the dollar no longer a reliable hedge against falls in risky assets..."

Jessie Yin, Bart Piasecki and I with some thoughts on what is going on with the dollar (for @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social GeoEconomics Center) www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/econog...

Some more of my dollar thoughts below in this good @AP piece, "Seeking shelter from Trump’s fury, U.S. trade partners reach deals with each other" Link: apnews.com/article/trum...

fraser.stlouisfed.org/files/docs/h... #Warsh on central bank independence in 2010. #fed

A few more of my thoughts on gold's surge in this @apnews.com story on the subject: apnews.com/article/gold...

Cold & snow have you locked inside your house w/ nothing to do? Check out my 30-min convo with @dominicbowen.bsky.social of the @riskpodcast.bsky.social. We discuss how geopolitics, sanctions, & digital currencies are shaping the future of the US dollar. open.spotify.com/episode/0Azr...

Mark Carney is a gift to Intro to IR professors everywhere.

Coming in April: the paperback edition of my book KING DOLLAR, with a new preface reflecting developments in 2025, i.e. the follies of Trump & Co. Do those developments vitiate the book’s thesis that dollar dominance is all but impregnable? My answer, hot off the press: 🧵 www.ft.com/content/a326...

Gold is a hot commodity (dad joke) at the moment. Today, I spoke to The World's Carolyn Beeler about the metal's recent surge, why we value gold, its traditional role as a safe harbor in times of trouble, and so much more. theworld.org/segments/202...

If this is their strong dollar policy, I can't imagine what the weak dollar policy would look like.

On one hand, I get this point that I've seen made several times OTOH, the issue w/ these long-term charts is that it implies that all other conditions in the US and world economy are constant. But they are not. 10-year Treasury yield was 1.5% in 2012, its 4.2% today, for example.

Such a dumb war.

Periodic reminder that the 2022 sanctions on Russia did not trigger the central bank gold buying spree. By 2022, most of the big CB gold buyers were years into a bullion buying binge.

Measles are back. Gold is at the center of the global monetary system. 1940s are so hot RN.

The only thing hotter than gold right now is measles.

Missed it this morning, but a great thread on de-dollarisation:

"The exchange rate is the most important price in any economy, since it affects all other prices." -Jeffry Frieden

The dollar is falling. How do Americans feel about this? David Steinberg & I asked about this on a November 2024 survey. Only 16% agreed that the US should devalue the dollar; 42% disagreed. 72% agreed that dollar dominance is a good thing. Link: www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-at...

You can't get better currency analysis than what @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social provides, and his take on the dollar is sobering. Read his full post here: robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/dollar-col...

The inevitable outcome.

A striking statistic about the state of podcasting: About half of all podcasts are listened to only by the podcast producers and their moms.

There's a dollar "vibe shift" happening now that is different from past bouts of dollar pessimism. You might be skeptical. That's understandable since the de-dollarization narrative has been around for years now, and little has changed about the dollar's global position. 1/

Once again... "How to dismantle a reserve currency."

Adam Posen (@adamposen.bsky.social) has it correct here. There are very few positive signs for the dollar right now, and a long list of negative signs that seems to be growing by the day.

German elites call for repatriating 1,236 tons of gold held in the US: "Given the...geopolitical situation, it seems risky to store so much gold in the US" "Trump is unpredictable" "German Bundesbank [faces risk it] will no longer be able to access its gold" www.yahoo.com/news/article...

Norbert Rottgen is a deep transatlanticist. This is the first I have seen of centrist German politician reminding US policy-makers about basing rights. Ramstein airbase is one of the largest US facilities in the world. Its not an open threat but saying out loud something that was never spoken.

A snow day adventure in Central New York.