You can tell this is 100% true by the presence of 100s of thousands of Russian troops in Ukraine

A week ago I was sent this graphic showing Ukraine had hit 10 of 11 biggest Russian oil refineries producing gasoline. I thought hitting #1 in Omsk, in Siberia, was a refinery too far. Silly me.

Restrictions to stop capital from leaving China. Restrictions to stop AI engineers from leaving China.

Not sure if anyone else can relate, but about half of my family's glasses growing up were empty dried beef jars.

Are Bessent's proposed swap lines with Gulf and Asian states an indication that the dollar has become what Susan Strange--the OG theorist of the geoeconomics of international currencies--called a "Negotiated Currency"? A short 🧵(1/10)

We're getting Trump Airlines, aren't we. www.wsj.com/business/air...

NBC Sunday Night Baseball

I thought baseball was perfect until I saw this. Every team should have a dog that retrieves the bats.

In grad school I worked really hard to train my brain that "data" = plural, and now this is what's become of us.

New research on Chinese economic statecraft, with David Steinberg (@johnshopkinssais.bsky.social) & @seaytac.bsky.social now out in World Development. We consider the question: do Chinese foreign bailouts increase public support for closer economic ties to China in recipient countries? A 🧵 (1/7)

There was once nothing cooler than rolling up to your elementary school library and walking out with one of these in your backpack.

Great article by @dsquareddigest.bsky.social today, inspiring this meme as a unified theory of payment geopolitics (with cameos of @danielmcdowell.bsky.social, Nicholas Mulder & @edwardfishman.bsky.social

“If we look at oil markets today, the dollar is still far and away the dominant currency that's used. But there has been some erosion and most of that erosion has taken place with countries that have been sanctioned by the US,” says Professor @danielmcdowell.bsky.social. @supolisci.bsky.social

Taco Tuesday

The MPSA of presidents.

Tickets for the home opener: $80 a pop Meeting your childhood baseball hero on the walk to the stadium: priceless. #PutKennyInCooperstown

The world is just a little brighter today because: new Weezer. open.spotify.com/album/6Hqfvc...

"The official soundtrack of US negotiations with Iran."

Professor @danielmcdowell.bsky.social says he's concerned the conflict could “result in renewed attacks from the White House on the independence of the Federal Reserve. @supolisci.bsky.social

My most maniacal parental delusion is when I pull off a solid dad joke, I like to imagine that my kids later say to their friends, "You'll never guess what funny thing my dad said today!" and proceed to speak of my unmatched dad comedy skills. There should be a name for this psychological disorder.

bold choice putting "love" before "laugh" here.

(Almost) needless to say, the US cannot replace income taxes with tariffs. Goods imports are dwarfed by household and corporate income, making a wholesale substitution of one for the other a fiscal impossibility:

What happens when weaponized interdependence meets neo-royalism...this interview? And somehow I got a goatee... www.scmp.com/news/china/d...

One path forward would be dedicated, staffed AI-free reading/writing labs: inviting spaces with no wifi access or proctored use of laptops which students are required to attend throughout the term to work on longer-term assignments.

Spent half an hour talking with Tommy Tucker of WWL First News about the 4th anniversary of the Russo-Ukraine War, where things stand, how Putin stays in power, and more. Had enough of a conversation that I got to break down "collective action problems" and "personalist dictatorship" along the way.

This @supolisci.bsky.social alum does great work on international security/nuclear weapons and if you’re into that sort of thing you should definitely give him a follow.

A depressing piece, but also a must read. Regulators and companies must do better. Men have to do better.

FX reserve accumulation was a major force in global markets from the Asian Financial Crisis through to the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis. But net acquisition volumes have since fallen off dramatically, making discussions of "reserve currency" status much less relevant:

Pleased to announce publication of the fifth edition of states versus markets www.bloomsbury.com/us/states-ve... The book is now old enough to drink in the USA but of course I have significantly updated it with each new edition. Buy a copy for Mother's Day or the holiday of your choice!

Smith (1776)

It was only a "historic correction" for those who got in between January 19 and January 29. For everyone else, there was no correction.

"Dad, what was it like to watch Bob Costas, Marv Albert, Hannah Storm, and the entire 1990s NBA on NBC team?"

Totally agree. I also add, having flown high performance aircraft, that all systems fail, with 100% certainty, at some point. Resilience requires the ability to anticipate failures, recognize when they occur, pivot flexibly around them, and deconstruct how they occurred to prevent future problems.

I tell my students that one of the main reasons not to over-rely on AI for research/writing is because--at some point in the future--you're going to have a face-to-face conversation with someone who matters, and if you don't actually know some things, that interaction will not go well for you.

We all agree that when the inevitable movie about the early days of AI is made in ten years or so, Matthew Rhys is automatically slotted into the Dario Amodei role, right?

When "Always Be My Baby" plays at the coffee shop.

Another day, another round of Chinese monetary saber rattling. Top economists are arguing that now, with the dollar looking weak and untrustworthy, China should seize the moment, relax capital controls, & unleash the yuan. A few quick thoughts 1/ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Our woodburning fireplaces are our family's winter therapy. I couldn't imagine surviving the season without them. There is nothing like a real fire. www.wsj.com/real-estate/...

Mine was white, but this was my first set of wheels. The fuel economy was so much worse than what this ad suggests.

With apologies to Amy Poehler, *this* was a "Good Hang", with Josh Lipsky and Jessie Yin. We discuss: - What's going on with USD? - Will the euro or won't it? - The Warsh-dollar bounce ...and lots more. www.atlanticcouncil.org/commentary/p...

Brutal chart from @noahbarkin.bsky.social and Gregor Williams. German exports to China grew for nearly two decades - and are now in free fall.

Marginal spending growth may be slowing, but the US remains the global consumer of last resort—overall retail sales were still up 4% year-over-year in 2025, and import volumes have gone from strength to strength despite the White House's attempts to wreak havoc.

It shocks me to say this, and I reserve my right to retract this statement at any point in the future and as soon as tomorrow but: it is fun having this guy on my team.

No, this is unacceptable. Get your problem set done -- Olympic medals can wait.

Some brutal charts in the new Rhodium Group note, updating their previous research on Germany and China Shock 2.0 Food for thought ahead of Merz's trip to China in 2 weeks.

As @michaelpettis.bsky.social says at least 1x per week, China cannot maintain a direct or indirect export surplus and also avoid acquiring some non-RMB asset. If not USTs, then something else, and if not USD denominated then -> ⬆️ deficits in other countries -> ⬆️ protectionist policy there.

LOL A+ post