Betteridge's law at work "Do Climate Models Support Claims of Volcanic Global Catastrophes?" agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...

When the world's biggest insurer says climate change has pushed traditional home insurance to its limits, it's already too late to start preparing. And we are in no way ready for a post-insurance world. Gift link to my column for @opinion.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

New paper out today in GRL: Drying of the Panama Canal in a Warming Climate (shorturl.at/TJ3aj) Main finding: Low water levels in Gatun Lake (main reservoir for Panama Canal) become more frequent and severe in a warming climate, particularly under higher emissions pathways

Yet another Nat Cat job? Actually, we're searching for TWO experts, specialized in tropical cyclones or earthquakes. US or UK, remote work definitely an option. Great job for an ECR physical scientist looking to join the insurance/reinsurance industry! eedu.fa.em3.oraclecloud.com/hcmUI/Candid...

This is a beautifully complex piece by Canadian journalist Katie Engelhart in the New York Times Magazine about children’s author Robert Munsch as he struggles with aging and illness. Gift link: www.nytimes.com/2025/09/14/m...

Are you a cool person who cannot stop talking about natural catastrophes? Do you want to help the insurance industry understand the latest hurricane, wildfire, or hailstorm headed their way? Then click the link for our new Head of Event Response job! careers.wtwco.com/jobs/head-of...

Apropos of nothing, I offer an unsolicited academic writing tip. Sentences that begin with some form of "Fig. X shows so-and-so..." are usually unnecessary, as they often just regurgitate what should be in the figure caption. Instead, *interpret* the figures in the text with appropriate references.

Top hurricane expert Kerry Emanuel on the DOE scam climate report: “The DOE is presenting a distorted view of the science of climate effects on extreme weather that is bound to mislead the public.” www.realclimate.org/index.php/ar...

More than 85 scientists say that a recent U.S. Department of Energy report is full of errors and misrepresents climate science.

The Department of Energy hired five academics to raise doubts about climate change. 85+ climate experts (organized by @andrewdessler.com) reviewed their report. Our conclusion, detailed in 450 pages of analysis: it is biased, full of errors, and not fit to inform policy making.

The Gulf stream is mostly a wind driven current, which isn't going anywhere, though it does get some thermohaline components. It is a fallacy that it "keeps Europe habitable." Even the latest extreme hosing experiment (which assumed complete shutdown

🚨 New paper alert! Josephine Wolff & I argue that efforts to regulate AI safety through liability and insurance are likely to fail—just as they largely did with cybersecurity. Download The Limits of Regulating AI Safety Through Liability & Insurance: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

The shooter at Annunciation Catholic School used an assault weapon to fire dozens of rounds through the stained glass windows of the school’s church—killing two children and wounding 17 others, including 14 children.

This motto, which was reviled way back for its first iteration, actually turned out to be spot on a decade or two later. We had a great visit back home with my mom - the Forks, Rainbow Stage, the Zoo were all fun, with friendly Manitobans at all our stops.

The only way to know? Probably not. Notes on an essay. diagrammonkey.wordpress.com/2025/08/17/t...

I don't know who designed this hoodie, but clearly they made it with exactly me in mind. The tree-ring pattern is even oak, which is just perfect.

Surreal scenes from Olympic National Park, where buildings and bridges have been wrapped in foil to save them from the #BearGulchFire #wawx www.kuow.org/stories/smok...

Expect an increase in the frequency and duration of wind droughts in a world that has a reduced equator-to-pole temperature difference #climate 🧪🌊

Attention Climate Solutions Scholars! @uvic.ca seeks its next Canada Excellence Research Chair 🇨🇦: www.uvic.ca/research-inn... You: world class scholar, looking to make a move Us: #5 in world for climate action, collegial, stunning location (B.C.) w award-winning climate policy Pls share widely!

Great discussion here on the causes of increased smoke in our Minnesota skies. Wildfires have increased 4X in Canada and the US since the 1970s. 🔥 What changed? The climate. #mnwx www.mprnews.org/episode/2025...

Here’s a map of when housing structures were built in the United States

One of the things I really do not miss about academia is professional pressure to be part of large synthesis efforts that use MOAR DATA to ‘prove’ stuff that has been known for **checks notes** 70 years…

My breakdown on the weather and climate information that should have informed MLB on its game between the Reds and Braves at Bristol Motor Speedway last night. Because that was an epic fail. They will try again today www.forbes.com/sites/marsha... --

Big El Niños 🌊 usually come with big 🌎 teleconnections. The one in 2023/24 didn't. Why? Rainfall anomalies in the tropical Pacific were suppressed due to greater warming in Indian and Atlantic Oceans. www.nature.com/articles/s43... Led by Lei Zhang, with @matcollins.bsky.social @cires.colorado.edu

Motherfucking wind farms…

🚨 If you're interested in working on a coordinated response to the DOE climate report, please enter your info on this google form 🚨 Please RT this so as many people see it as possible. forms.gle/BL9xUAfRxA...

Why you can be confident that climate change made the Texas floods worse My latest on The Climate Brink Don't be misled by those arguing about trends in flooding. www.theclimatebrink....

Claim: "Water vapor is a greenhouse gas!" Reality: Yes, and there's more of it in a warmer atmosphere -"CO2 is plant food!" -pretty hard to eat when you're on fire -"Climate has changed before!" -We know, we told you that -"Scientists don't know everything!" - doesn't mean we know *nothing*

Magnitude 8.7 #earthquake in Kamchatka, following a M7.4 last week - may be largest earthquake since 2011, 8th largest on record globally, #tsunami warning in place for US west coast and Canada - the historic 1952 M9 closely caused a destructive tsunami across the Pacific

Storm update… Should get into the northwest metro 9:15-9:30pm, and work through the Twin Cities by 11:00pm-12:00am No warnings at the moment, but let them cook.

Severe risk update: ⚡️ Still high uncertainty when/where storms will blow. Latest models trending later & further south. Possible bow after 10 PM south of MSP along I-90? Still a (lesser?) risk for MSP. We'll keep watching. Latest NAM 3k model(19Z) below 7 PM to 2 AM. #mnwx

Sat down with the new boss of Flood Re to discuss his concerns that the national flood reinsurer is not on track to wind down by its deadline — and why, despite recently issuing a catastrophe bond, he is pricing in stubbornly high reinsurance costs: on.ft.com/3IFcUmg

"i asked grok" "i asked chatgpt" yeah well i asked carl sagan and he said the greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance but the illusion of knowledge 🧪

The Senate Approps Committee approved the "CJS" budget bill yesterday that would provide funding for NOAA, NASA and NSF. I did a semi-deep dive this morning, and talked about how the administration seems to be saying "whatever" to Congress re: the budget. More here: substack.com/@balancedwea...

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Joe is absolutely right. This tragedy was not caused by inadequate data, poor modeling, or incorrect risk assessments. The old technical solution was flawed but basically correct. It still wasn’t enough.

David Drobny — the NashSevereWx founder — with an absolutely crucial read on the Texas Hill Country floods. www.facebook.com/share/p/16xT...

One Guadalupe River flood gauge near Kerrville and Camp Mystic recorded a rise of more than 25 feet in two hours.

everything in this article is just utterly horrifying.

I have spent the last 24 hours looking at media reports and social media posts about the Texas Hill County tragedy and being appalled by the level of misinformation I am seeing. I have tried to put together an updated, more reasoned summary I hope you'll read. open.substack.com/pub/balanced...

Texas Hill Country is scenic – and deadly during storms. Its steep hills and fast-moving water make it one of the most dangerous places in the U.S. for flash floods. A flood on July 4 killed at least 27 people. A hydrologist explains why this keeps happening: theconversation.com/why-texas-hi...

The latest on TS Chantal today, but more importantly, we take a deep dive into the causes and forecasts leading up to the horrific flooding tragedy in Texas. A lot to unpack today. open.substack.com/pub/theeyewa...

There are many ways a wildfire can start, but it’s climate change that’s driving the conditions for them to grow bigger, faster, and more dangerous. A spark alone won’t start a firestorm—but in a tinder-dry forest, it can ⬇️ vancouversun.com/opinion/op-e...

It is remarkable that the west is committing to spending 5% of GDP on defence, and almost no one has made the case that the most pressing threat to our security this century is climate change and we should be spending more on tackling that.

Updated figure from Jain et al. showing global extreme fire weather trends since 1979. Metrics are global 95th percentile of annual Fire Weather Index (FWI), Initial Spread Index (ISI) and the Vapor Pressure Deficit (VPD). The trend is clear - we are seeing more extreme fire weather due to warming.

How Wall Street hedge funds are gambling millions on Eaton fire insurance claims www.latimes.com/environment/...

A few months ago, Nature published how-to guide for using ChatGPT to write your peer reviews in 30 minutes. This is, of course, a horrible idea. Here’s my response with @jbakcoleman.bsky.social .

*stares in “my yard would have loved that rain”* The rain will fill in across the Twin Cities later today.

hey insurers, before you sent out any notices, juuuust maybe cross-check your non-renewals list against Google Scholar to avoid discovering you've become the lead anecdote in like, a BUNCH of forthcoming public lectures and articles on insurability by the leader in the field.

In this Carbon Brief post we talk about the implications of not including future volcanic eruptions in climate scenarios, as described in our recent paper: www.nature.com/articles/s43...