Totally normal April thing to see in SoCal on the watchduty.

We are launching a big project today with MIT — The Electricity Price Hub! You can view monthly electricity prices per kwh and avg. bills for every major utility in the country going back to Jan 2020. electricity.heatmap.news

Friendly House leaders are looking at next steps. Let’s be real: USFS leaders assumed quiet diligence and results would be respected. If your work is affected by closures— send a tip to let House leaders know the work you do at your facility. democrats-naturalresources.house.gov/contact/tipl...

“To sum it up,” Pete Curran, a staff meteorologist for Watch Duty, a nonprofit that tracks wildfires live and sends updates to users in real time, and former chief of the Orange County Fire Department, put it bluntly: “We are scared shitless.” wapo.st/4uMpUd1

The next CLIVAR climate risk seminar is April 28 at 4 pm ET. We have two fantastic presentations on the schedule. Join the mailing list to get the info to join. mailchi.mp/usclivar.org...

Is California’s home insurance market shifting out of crisis? My answer is a "no" based on the data that the Chronicle is showing. Stay tuned for a paper providing our sense of the situation in coming weeks.

The National Weather Service is warning of a significant fire weather pattern that will begin developing this weekend and extend through next week. The public is strongly advised to avoid all fire-related activities, as conditions will continue to be conducive to rapid fire growth:

We are in uncharted territory. Both with respect to water and fire.

Or in the face of wars of choice in the Persian Gulf.

CATL, BYD and Sungrow add $70bn in market value "Neil Beveridge, who leads Bernstein’s energy research, expects China, the world’s biggest oil importer, to double down on its plan to “electrify everything”." www.ft.com/content/b122...

we're all going to be learning about energy markets & contracts like we learnt about derivatives in 2008 lol

Simple math on an oil windfall profit tax: 13.5M barrels/day * 365d * $35/barrel increase (so far) = $172B/y in excess profits. That's pretty close to what the Pentagon apparently needs to pay for the war ($200B). Of course that assumes this goes on for a year and that prices don't go higher.

Bolinas Ridge sunset. Winter heat wave. March 18, 2026. Photo credit: Rebecca Wara

Simple math on an oil windfall profit tax: 13.5M barrels/day * 365d * $35/barrel increase (so far) = $172B/y in excess profits. That's pretty close to what the Pentagon apparently needs to pay for the war ($200B). Of course that assumes this goes on for a year and that prices don't go higher.

We should tax away any excess US oil company profits associated with this war. It is a windfall for these firms paid for out of the blood and treasure of the whole country. No reason Congress couldn't make this change right away. Dems should demand it if they can't stop the war.

What if every insurer that wants to sell ACV roof policies had to mark to market all of the illiquid assets on its balance sheet at the end of each trading day? And faced liability if they turned out to be wrong.

This doesn’t protect homeowners. It just creates consumer confusion about what the heck they are buying. Sometimes, there need to be robust standards so people can understand what insurance they are buying and get enough. ACV for roofs in hailstorm country isn’t that. www.fhfa.gov/news/news-re...

I’d frame this just a touch differently: they aren’t abandoning low risk areas, they are abandoning “California” as a place to grow their business. That should cause some introspection on our part.

Something every American can agree on: we all hate what Live Nation’s exploitation of monopoly power has done to the experience of hearing live music. And yet… The Trump Administration Just Gave Live Nation the Gift of a Lifetime www.nytimes.com/2026/03/17/o...

This should be shocking to all Americans. Trump is approximately zeroing out federal funding for all science and engineering. How does that make America great exactly?

This should be shocking to all Americans. Trump is approximately zeroing out federal funding for all science and engineering. How does that make America great exactly?

Here is a graph with dollar amounts of funding committed. The curves look very similar to those based on the number of awards.

This kills people. Mostly seniors. We shouldn’t do it lest someone, someday, does it to us. www.cnn.com/2026/03/16/a...

I find the idea that Uber now asks me if I’d like to pay a 30% fee - ~$6.50 on a $24 fare - to cut the line offensive both to me and the other people I’d be paying to cut in front of.

No ring fence around wildfire when it comes to liabilities and economic fall out for states like California, Oregon, Colorado… Cue a (checks calendar) unprecedented *winter* heatwave with way below average snowpack. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Feeling a lot of trepidation about the fire season this morning.

Meanwhile, the Compact Abides. www.hcn.org/articles/the...

On the CPC's 6-10 Day Outlook (for March 19-23), 33.4% of the Lower 48 has a >90% chance of being in the warmest temperature tercile. The 33.4% number is the 5th largest on record for this product and the highest percentage in 9 years (since Feb 13, 2017 issuance).

@mdettinger.bsky.social response to my question on Sierra snowpack in the context of this heatwave is fascinating.

How much does snow temp impact melting rate? My (sketchy) understanding is that snow at the freezing point melts a lot faster. If that’s right, are the snowpack temps poised for rapid melting in the upcoming heat?

NEW: Why does gas set the price of electricity – and is there an alternative? Make yourself a tea (or grab a beer??) and enjoy my Friday longread on marginal pricing, ideas for market reform – & how to break the link btwn gas & power prices for good www.carbonbrief.org/... 1/8

Hello! The best team in Climate Politics and Policy is still looking for a Data Engineer! We're interested in people with more relevant civic data experience and a strong interest in Climate Cabinet's mission. Priority deadline extended to March 17th. Fully remote within the US.

Fire season is coming...

This is so bad for everybody in the six US states that are served by PacifiCorp. And I would include in that the victims of the Labor Day fires. BH is not riding to the rescue to throw money at victims of a fire that the cause and origin investigation doesn’t even think was caused by the utilities.

A question for the intel and defense people (or energy people who really know about this stuff) who might see this: I have seen coverage that basically says you can't reopen the Strait of Hormuz without actually occupying the Iranian side. Assume that is true.

Who is the “we” here? Is it average American who struggles to pay their bills - rent, groceries, getting their kids to school and themselves to work? Or is it the “we” that talk to this administration - billionaires and corporate lobbyists?

Same as it always ways. Insurance only works up to a certain level of physical risk. Beyond that, there is not available coverage that is economic to purchase. This is like CA electric utilities trying to buy wildfire insurance in 2018 to present.

Over a week ago, in the FT, the *shipping* guys were saying "it's not just insurance. We just don't actually want our ships blown up."

Favorite sign in the MMWD.

17/ "Never start a bombing campaign that will completely halt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz" is right up there with "never get involved in a land war in Asia” in terms of the classic blunders. -- Nate Silver buttondown.com/polycrisisdi...

35/ Trump mulls taking over the Strait of Hormuz - CBS.

Woah.

Retaliation was swift. This could quickly get out of control given the eacalatory spiral we are on. bsky.app/profile/apne...

Multiple news outlets are reporting a US attack on an Iranian #desalination plant. If verified, this violates international law protecting #water systems during wars, and it sets a dangerous precedent, given intense dependence of Gulf countries on desalination. timesofoman.com/article/1691...

I was in Orlando last week at a reinsurance conference. It was a red flag day and the forest looked like you could drop one match and it would go up. I had never seen with my own eyes and felt why FL had such wildfire risk. But it was obvious. Hair on the back of your neck stands up obvious.

Oil jumps, sure, but the Iran War's real beneficiaries are renewables, nuclear - and coal @opinion.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

This is going to be a HUGE issue for this year and next year. The tropical Pacific is the heat engine of the planet. This is the engine going into overdrive. You WILL notice this in your day to day lives.

Whew. All signs are increasingly pointing to a significant, if not strong to very strong, El Niño event. I'll have more to say in coming weeks & months, but for now I'll just say that this is increasingly likely to become a major regional-to-global climate driver in 2026-2027.