#Bayes #stats @mc-stan.org folks, is this a great idea? Or a terrible idea?

If relevant, this paper lays out some alternative inverse-weighted and discrete-time approaches which can be implanted in standard software (nothing bayesian). tinyurl.com/4tb6emm7

In this paper we framed the waiting time to next event (initiation of next trt or death) as a competing risk model nested within a causal g-computation approach. doi.org/10.1093/bios... Similar data structure. Turns out you just need to model the sequence of cause-specific hazards.

I had somehow not noticed the 2.0 release of {lme4} last week, which includes functionality to specify structured covariance matrices. Nice! #rstats cran.r-project.org/web/packages...

Hivemind: I want to know the increase in survival time from repeated Tx visits over uneven times. Pts can be followed up repeatedly, and Tx can be given over multiple visits. I'm after time to each visit and time-to-outcome. What would you do? Weibull frailty model? This is in brms. #statsky #rstats

Are there any examples where it is defensible to combine observational and randomised data in a metaanalysis? #stats #metascience

New paper in press at Biometrics by PhD Candidate Esteban Fernández-Morales 1) Develops Bayesian spike & slab and horseshoe models for causal inference under spatial spillover 2) Analyzes Philly's 2017 beverage tax accounting for cross-border shopping arxiv.org/pdf/2501.08231

"wakefield" will forever be my favorite name for an #rstats package #stats github.com/trinker/wake...

I can think of no surer way to make your spouse see the error of their ways than to point out how their current thinking is rife with confounders. Draw them a DAG while you're at it.

Proposing new rule: "Live your life in such a way that nobody will be forced to render parts of it as a 'Downfall' variant."

🚨 OMG! No words! #academicsky #idsky #statsky

With some help from Claude Code, I have the app I've always wanted: elicitcausal lets you design a causal graph with your theoretical priors & preregister it. Then after you complete a study, you can upload your graph and get estimates of causal learning. Link: causal.wilddata.solutions #rstats

I believe the Gen Z kids call this causalmaxxing 😎

By leveraging advances in #Bayesian statistical methods, this meta-analysis quantifies the role of publication bias in the field of #dexmedetomidine for #delirium prevention in #cardiac surgery patients

#stats Here's a nifty interactive demo of confidence intervals by Kristoffer Magnusson rpsychologist.com/d3/ci/

Revman and the idea of standardizing meta-analysis was brilliant in the 1990s. That is no longer the case.

Today, my pipes have pipes. Pipe-ception, if you will.

Why do I have to pretend that I'm going to print something in order to save it as a PDF. Why do I have to engage in a little ruse.

Very sadly Seshagiri Mallampati, the anesthesiologist who devised the Mallampati score, die two weeks ago. He only retired in 2017, 49 years after he began clinical practice. litfl.com/seshagiri-ra...

COULD EVERYONE PLEASE STOP USING RANDOM EFFECTS META-ANALYSIS WHEN COMBINING 3 OR 4 TRIALS? AND COULD REVIEWERS STOP DEMANDING IT?

Yes, we mention that here.https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/40914655/. The post was really directed at the 99% of meta-analyses that use standard software and don't even include a statistician

Me? I'm just happy to be here #rstats

I'm so excited to announce the first release of my newest #Rstats package, {adrftools}! This package facilitates estimation, visualization, and testing for the causal effect of a continuous (i.e., non-discrete) treatment. 🧵 1/10 #statssky #episky #causalinference

I feel like that’s what we do already no?

A while back, I wrote a thing. If you like experiments and causal inference, you should read it:

There is an un named paeds cardiac anaesthetist (DMcA) who brings back his punters on FIO2 0.23 x PIP 13 on PEEP 5 , rate 13 or 17 or 19. He just enjoys watching my ADHD AUTISTIC brain freeze and crash. He knows I cant focus on ANYTHING until i make those numbers even

Macbeth: SHIT

Is this the best #statsmeme about shrinkage and partial pooling? Or just the best Seinfeld meme about shrinkage and partial pooling? (Credit to @avivmokady.bsky.social)

When you're wondering if the Pareto parameters are a hidden code asking after your mental health, it's time to seek help #statsky

Nerds of #statsky, particularly #rstats, has anyone got package recommendations that can take a data frame and create a synth of it that maintains metadata (var names, class, etc) and variable distributions, but wipes associations so that you can finalise your analysis before peeking at the data?

The publisher estimates the Bayesian Workflow book will ship in June www.routledge.com/Bayesian-Wor...

Question for anaesthetists… In your hospital/country, how are drugs of addiction (eg opioids, benzos, etc) handled with regards to a drug register and documentation? Do nurses watch how much you give, how much you discard, multiple signatures required, documentation (book vs chart),etc? #AnSky

The dream dplyr update for my data cleaning pipelines 😍 filter_out() is going to be SO nice, no longer will I need to wrangle with annoying is.na() conditions replace_values() and recode_values() also going to be a dream too, go read the post! #rstats

New imputation method just unlocked

Two disabled autistic boys were murdered by their parents in Australia I’m begging everyone to pay close attention to how the media frames this. There’s a tendency to let the “better off dead” narrative creep in whenever disabled lives are lost. Eugenics is everywhere & we must always call it out

I co wrote the first paper on the taste of garlic with thiopentone. Much described at the time but never written up. My claim to infamy 😊 https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/8862647/

Obs study ppl: Propensity Scores work! Propensity Scores:

Paging the epidemiologists

What are some of the best DAGs you seen that depict time-varying confounding? Could be from a 'real' worked example, or generic. #EpiSky

cool R trick for those unaware: the {labelled} package can be used to set variable labels which are automatically used by some other packages, including {ggplot2} and {gtsummary}

Probably not in the near future. I hope to offer this course at future conferences e.g. JSM/ENAR as well tho. I have a companion paper under review at Statistics in Medicine’s “Tutorials in Biostatistics” series. That should hopefully be out sooner w/ a companion github repo. I’ll post when it is!

I finally was able to integrate the ordered beta model into brms proper. It'll be a while before it's in brms (and that depends on Paul Buerkner accepting a pull request), but for now feel free to check it out here: #rstats github.com/saudiwin/brm...

I am deeply offended by boomerplyr (inspired by genzplyr), because I am NOT a boomer (squarely Xennial) and I "get" all the translations bradlindblad.github.io/boomerplyr/ #Rstats

my husband put on nirvana and my children instinctively invented moshing from first principles

I'm looking forward to teaching a 4-hour short course on Bayesian sensitivity analysis methods at the American Causal Inference Conference (ACIC) 2026! Register here: sci-info.org/annual-meeti...

“the proportion of SpO2 measurements >94% despite a paired SaO2 ≤92% ranged from 5.3 to 35.3 percentage points higher for patients with darker skin tones than for those with lighter skin tones (7.6-62.2% v 1.2-26.9%, rate ratio 2.3-7.1).”

Fantastic to see this published at last An objective assessment of the efficacy of home pulse oximeters on different skin tones Ping @iwashyna.bsky.social Open to comments from all #foamed #medsky www.bmj.com/content/392/...

“They who stick everything they have measured in the model will create a colliderscope of patterns.” Sayings of Confuseus

An amazing part of 2025 was the growth of ordered beta regression. The paper was cited 94 times in 2025 across many fields. Super grateful to everyone who has used it and cited it. Thank you! and don't forget your ordered beta merch 😆 #rstats rmk-designs.printify.me

‪It has a name now 😜 Many thanks to Ken for agreeing to put his good name to my...artwork. The image is in the public domain (CC 0), but citations to the linked documents are warmly welcomed. ✅ zenodo.org/records/1808... ✅ pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24452418/