Recording now available if you've missed it:

I do not regret to inform you that we are going to win

You can follow the results for Hungary here. Looks very much like Tisza has won. Tight for a supermajority. And of course we don't know how Orban will react. europeelects.eu/2026/04/04/n...

Statisticians are trained in how to compute statistics, but not why to compute statistics. At least 10% of their training should be in philosophy of statistics. They should also spend 10 credits on their own empirical research project to understand how data is acually collected.

You will never convince me that we won't see more incredibly creative art like this with universal basic income. I want UBI for many reasons, but especially this reason. I want more people exploring new ideas and pushing boundaries and getting really good at stuff they love. I 100% adore AdP. 🏆

One year after our original Guardian essay, Naomi Klein and I are excited to reveal the North American cover of our forthcoming book END TIMES FASCISM - and the Fight for the Living World. It will be on bookshelves on September 15th and is available for pre-order. More details below. bit.ly/4cbLfEr

I mean obviously as a certified non posable action figurine appreciator I'm a biased source here, but I do basically agree with this. Being unironically enthusiastic about weird niche things is one of the true joys of living in a society and if you can gain access to it you should.

Poverty is a key driver of health; our latest article reviews the growing literature on economic policies as an upstream solution. However, several policies have insufficient evidence, and data barriers remain: www.annualreviews.org/content/jour... @hsph.harvard.edu @irpwisc.bsky.social

This is so, so well-articulated.

Cyril Sneer is a top five villain name

Universal Basic Income — like Social Security — isn't about creating dependency; it's about ending it. It gives people the leverage to negotiate better wages and better conditions. It turns the labor market from a coercive "choice" into an actual choice. That's the freedom we should be fighting for.

🤓There's an open 2 yr postdoc position in my group 🏘️ On interactions between area-level socioeconomic position and environmental factors in weight trajectories in children 📈 Using multilevel models; applying the target trial framework 📆 Apply before April 7th! international.au.dk/about/profil...

“…the loneliness-CVD link was still evident even after controlling for a wide array of potential confounders and mediators…” Apparently it was a good thing that the “association” was still there after adjusting for a wide range of mediators. This was in IJE!

They can’t even let Bradford Hill have temporality…

We need to bring back the ideal of masculinity focused on quiet self-sacrifice for the sake of others. Alpha shit is for losers. Be a man and humbly forgo the shit you want for years so you can provide for your family, you indulgent little wuss

Hi! We're an alternative to Amazon's Audible, & here are a few things that people often don't know about us: 1. We have over 600k audiobooks in our catalog! You'll pretty much find whatever you want to read, other than Audible exclusives (but that's on them, not us)

Every paper begins as a promise and ends as a compromise.

"Is a research question a promise of what we can deliver, or is it simply an expression of what we want to know?" From: www.bmj.com/content/392/...

Wake up babe, new Weinberger paper on causal reasoning just dropped 👀

More like causal isn’tference amirite?

Causal isn’tference: when you don’t make your identifying assumptions clear or don’t bother to argue for them

And while we’re renaming things let’s do away with “effect measure modification“ and just say directly which measure you want to look at modification in, eg: - RD modification - RR modification Would make people not just blindly look for EMM, but consider which scale EMM they’re interested in

"these findings should be interpreted as associations rather than evidence of causality" If an association is not, on some level, some amount of evidence (even very very weak) for causality, it is evidence for exactly nothing.

A handy slide! files.constantcontact.com/668faa28001/...

NEW PREPRINT: “A critical review of clinical prediction models in oncology: is this SEERious research?” --> doi.org/10.31222/osf... #ClinicalPredictionModels #ResearchIntegrity #ResearchWaste #metascience #metaresearch

Ok pals. Looking to move all my teaching materials open and online, and am developing new modules that I want to start off this way. Content = reading, quizzes, videos, and code tutorials. Opinions on the best platform? Good examples of best practice I can steal from? Many thanks.

Most people don't use the word utilize, they utilize utilize because they utilize it to sound sophisticated rather than its intended purpose which is to employ something for a purpose other than its intended purpose.

A very nice to initiative where you can post your DAG: opencausal.org And because they're machine readable, they're much easier to search.

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This book should be essential reading for anyone who has anything to do with AI. Well researched, with proper reference to recent history, revealing the insane underlying philosophies that enthusiastic techies & EA advocates buy into in the name of techno optimism.

When discussing ideas with other people I have 3 internal categories: 1. Reasonable idea and I agree 2. Reasonable idea but I don't agree 3. Unreasonable idea Category 2 is the most fun.

This but with causal assumptions

I continue to be fascinated by the phenomenon whereby an expert engages with any of the LLMs on their field of expertise and is instantly horrified by the wrong answers, and then goes on to use it for things they are not experts in as though it won’t be just as bad for those.

Adding to @pwgtennant.bsky.social‘s excellent thread: Per protocol estimand: a very reasonable thing to be interested in PP analysis: a reasonable thing to do if assumptions behind it are recognized In this study, as Peter points out, there are very VERY good reasons to doubt the PP analysis.

Bounding vs point estimation

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In my consulting class I like to say that research has three successive bars to pass:

When talking to people about research questions, I find people often make one of two mistakes: 1) They think that a causal question implies a causal answer 2) Or they seem to infer the question based on the methods/answer rather than the other way around

"Is a research question a promise of what we can deliver, or is it simply an expression of what we want to know?" Interesting article from @jeremylabrecque.bsky.social and @Katrina Kezios www.bmj.com/content/392/...

Really looking forward to sharing our work on understanding mode effects with DAGs! Join in person at LSHTM or online on 26 February 👇 cc @rjsilverwood.bsky.social @pwgtennant.bsky.social @clscohorts.bsky.social @sriucl.bsky.social

With everything going on in the world, what better time than now to re-up my thoughts (that is, rant) about scientific posters? (Thread!)

I can’t remember where I heard this but: If it’s not worth writing, it’s not worth reading.

I'm so excited to announce the first release of my newest #Rstats package, {adrftools}! This package facilitates estimation, visualization, and testing for the causal effect of a continuous (i.e., non-discrete) treatment. 🧵 1/10 #statssky #episky #causalinference

New paper by @jeremylabrecque.bsky.social and Katrina. Guidance and rationale on how to report causal Qs in research papers. I wrote an editorial with colleagues (www.bmj.com/content/392/...) too. I encourage anyone interested in writing an RMR for BMJ to reach out and discuss. #Episky #Medsky

When does associational language make sense and when does it not? Katrina Kezios and I cover this in "How and when to use causal and associational language" with 3 suggestions for which concepts require causal language and which can be described in associational language.

Post a banger that isn’t in English youtu.be/OG2VEI0yPW8

This is so nicely said: It's the authors' responsibility to tell the reader how they might interpret an association.

Sometimes I hear, "we need to frame our research as associational otherwise the MDs reading it will not interpret it correctly." It took me a while to realize how bonkers this is. It's saying some important primary users of the knowledge created are unable to understand what they're reading.

DAGs describe discrete snapshots. Most causal mechanisms of interest in science on humans and other living things operate continuously. The two may not correspond. Is it time to panic? wildetruth.substack.com/p/can-we-bel...