Tom Yates
@tomayates.bsky.social
š¤ 6311
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Epidemiology, infection
https://profiles.ucl.ac.uk/37299-tom-yates/about
pinned post!
NEW PREPRINT! We systematically reviewed molecular epidemiology studies looking at strain discordance in pairs of people with TB disease and history of household contact We found 30 studies from 18 countries. Excluding 4 studies at high risk of bias, we had data on 1544 household case pairs [1/n]
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Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex Strain Discordance Among People With Tuberculosis and a History of Household Contact, a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis
Background: In this systematic review of molecular epidemiology studies, we describe the prevalence of Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex strain discordance amo
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5929224
5 months ago
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Cowardice, and a misreading of the problem Given supply side constraints (and the climate crisis), we want to discourage consumption whilst protecting those on low incomes Why not just provide targeted support?
@stellacreasy.bsky.social
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2 days ago
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Kai Kupferschmidt
3 days ago
New info from
@who.int
is that the Ebola case in Kinshasa that was reported yesterday tested negative in confirmatory testing āand is therefore not considered a confirmed case.ā That would be some good news at least!
www.who.int/emergencies/...
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Ebola disease caused by Bundibugyo virus, Democratic Republic of the Congo (The) & Uganda
On 5 May 2026, the World Health Organization (WHO) was alerted of a high-mortality outbreak of unknown illness in Mongbwalu Health Zone, Ituri Province, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), includi...
https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2026-DON602
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Hearing annoying advert from
@royalosteosoc.bsky.social
, which dunks on GPs, on
@newstatesman1913.bsky.social
podcast prompted me to look up who funds them Various alternative therapy nonsense (tumeric), also UCB who make Romosozumab No mention of this relationship on their webpage about the drug
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Romosozumab (Evenity): Drug Treatment for Osteoporosis
Information on Romosozumab. How it works as a drug treatment for osteoporosis, who can take it, how it's given and possible side effects.
https://share.google/JK8rUlIkenw9VX3Oj
3 days ago
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Rob Ford
5 days ago
Just received this in my inbox - interesting both for what it says and that the Mayor's office (Burnham's office) saw the need to say it. Burnham can *run* for Westminster and remain Mayor while doing it, but if he wins he has to immediately resign. That's good for Burnham & Lab prospects imho 1/2
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BK. Titanji
5 days ago
#Ebola
#Alert
About 246 suspected cases and 65 deaths have been reported, mainly in the Mongwalu and Rwampara health zones. Four deaths have been reported among laboratory-confirmed cases. Suspected cases have also been reported in Bunia, pending confirmation.
africacdc.org/news-item/af...
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Africa CDC Calls Urgent Regional Coordination Meeting Following Ebola Virus Disease Outbreak in Ituri Province, DRC ā Africa CDC
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia / Kinshasa, DRC, 15 May 2026 ā The Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) is closely monitoring the confirmed Ebola Virus Disease outbreak in Ituri province, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and is working with national authorities and partners to support a rapid, coordinated response. Following consultations with the [ā¦]
https://africacdc.org/news-item/africa-cdc-calls-for-urgent-regional-coordination-meeting-following-ebola-virus-disease-outbreak-in-ituri-province-drc/
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Streeting's choice - does he want to lose to someone who may be able to beat Farage, or to lose to someone who probably can't beat Farage? The NEC should find a way for Burnham to stand
@stellacreasy.bsky.social
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6 days ago
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Nice
#dataviz
Can someone redo this as a surface, with the third dimension being density of councils/seats? The Labour/Tory/Reform sector of the surface looks to contain many more communities than the Green sector
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6 days ago
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Is this idea of Starmer winning on second preferences credible? Surely he'd get knocked out in first round, with his votes distributed between Streeting and the soft left candidate? The key question, for me, is how many left/soft left folk remain as members
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āHold the lineā: Burnham tells allies in parliament he still has options to return
Greater Manchester mayor seeks to reassure his supporters after potential seats for him fail to materialise
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/may/13/hold-the-line-burnham-tells-allies-in-parliament-he-still-has-options-to-return
6 days ago
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What a farce. Also new roads and airports. Time for Starmer to go
@stellacreasy.bsky.social
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7 days ago
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This was really excellent - recommend watching back the recording when available
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8 days ago
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Paul HĆ¼nermund
9 days ago
From now on, I'm going to write papers where I take an arbitrary performance metric, restrict the sample to top performers on that metric, and then hunt for negative correlations with everything else in the truncated sample. I'm at a business school, so this should be extremely lucrative.
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Darren Dahly
8 days ago
It's so painful to watch these people say things like "So go to museums during your leisure time, play an instrument, speak 4 languages, eat right, sleep well, don't smoke, don't drink, exercise regularly, and don't let yourself get too stressed too often" with a straight face.
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Rob Ford
11 days ago
The āBlue Labourā strategy still being promoted by some on Labour right is premised on being able to win social conservatives while holding on to social liberals. Failure state for this strategy is failing to win social cons while alienating social liberals. Here is a map of that failure state:
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I think Rayner would be much better than Starmer or Streeting. However, unless things change, she would be unlikely to be PM beyond the next election, even if she did well. At the recent local elections, 18/19 seats being contested on Tameside Council were won by Reform
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2026 Tameside Metropolitan Borough Council election - Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Tameside_Metropolitan_Borough_Council_election
9 days ago
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Has there been anything good written on how to deal with negative feedback loops in MR? E.g. variants that amplify signalling downstream of the receptor may result in lower measured levels of the substrate
@gushamilton.bsky.social
#EpiSky
9 days ago
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Bob Melling
9 days ago
I know that localised cultural norms affect voting patterns but Blue Labour's inability to recognise that demographic differences between places doesn't mean that the core Labour coalition differs massively between places has me wondering if they would recognise their own mother if she put on a hat.
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Clive Lewis MP
12 days ago
It is whether, by staying on, he does lasting damage to Labourās ability to govern, rebuild trust, and stop the advance of the right. That is why a timetable for his departure is now necessary. The longer this is delayed, the greater the damage to the party and the country. 4/4
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Clive Lewis MP
12 days ago
We cannot pretend this is a ābad nightā, a difficult cycle, or a messaging problem. It is a political crisis, and unless we face it honestly, it risks becoming terminal. The Prime Minister has reached the point where the question is no longer whether he can recover. 3/4
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Agree with this, though increasingly difficult for Labour to find winnable seats in North West How about an arrangement where Burnham makes the decisions and does all of the talking, with Starmer staying on as PM in name only?
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'It's Clear We Need A Change Of Leader ā Andy Burnham Must Return To Westminster', Says Labour Peer
Writing for HuffPost UK, Lord Dave Watts said the electorate have clearly rejected Keir Starmer.
https://share.google/OpTahtst4VToysKqb
12 days ago
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Labour needs a reset - Mahmood must go & immigration reforms be dropped - Palestine Action appeal must be dropped & meaningful pressure applied if violence continues in Palestine - reverse ODA cuts - smart tax reform (see below) - bold offer on housing, scrap right to buy
@stellacreasy.bsky.social
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2p switch from National Insurance to Income Tax could raise Ā£6 billion while protecting workersā pay packets ā¢ Resolution Foundation
The Chancellor should protect workersā pay packets and level the playing field on how different forms of income are taxed ā including a 2p cut in employee National Insurance (NI) offset by a 2p rise i...
https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/press-releases/2p-switch-from-national-insurance-to-income-tax-could-raise-6-billion-while-protecting-workers-pay-packets/
12 days ago
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Jamie Reilly š¦
14 days ago
On this graduation day, I am reminded of when I was briefly an interim department chair and saved money on regalia by ordering a Slytherin costume robe and tie on Amazon.
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The idea of keeping Starmer on as foreign secretary is problematic He has not impressed on Israel- Palestine - defending collective punishment, only partially preventing arms exports, failing to take robust action when red lines crossed Starmer must go, and a clean break would be best
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16 days ago
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As ever,
@kenanmalik.bsky.social
very good Whilst I don't think marches or slogans should be banned, I think people should avoid contested phrases that make many Jewish people feel vulnerable Such language is not needed to clearly object to Netanyahu's attrocities
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17 days ago
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Tom Yates
Financial Times
18 days ago
The problem with healthy life expectancy
ft.trib.al/ysEoB4C
| opinion
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The problem with healthy life expectancy
A crude blend of very different statistics is not the best tool for the job
https://ft.trib.al/ysEoB4C
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Generation Rent
19 days ago
šØBREAKING: RENTERSā RIGHTS ACT IS IN FORCE TODAY!! šØ Today marks a new era for private renters across England. This new law is a vital step towards re-balancing power between renters and landlords and should be celebrated.
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In Hazards of HRs,
@miguelhernan.org
cautions against interpreting period specific hazard ratios Are there robust approaches to account for those most vulnerable to exposure being depleted in survivors? Motivating example - trying to quantify impact of both acute and chronic infection
#EpiSky
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The Hazards of Hazard Ratios
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3653612/
20 days ago
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I'd be interested in a health economist's take on this. Presuably optimal threshold is function of overall NHS budget and what could be achieved if this money were spent on infrastructure, health promotion, additional staff, etc, rather than marginally effective new drugs?
@peterbaker17.bsky.social
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22 days ago
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Kenan Malik
24 days ago
āWhile the NFās John Tyndall or the British National Partyās Nick Griffin were never close to power, many of their old ideas now areā¦ [having been] made respectable by liberal society.ā My āŖ@theobserveruk.bsky.social column:
observer.co.uk/news/opinion...
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Fifty years on, David Edgarās vision about the far right ...
The extreme views of neo-Nazis in the playwrightās 1976 drama Destiny have since moved into the mainstream
https://observer.co.uk/news/opinion-and-ideas/article/fifty-years-on-david-edgars-vision-about-the-far-right-is-becoming-our-destiny
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I think Starmer just completed the 'I'm incapable of reading the room' bingo card
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24 days ago
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The Guardian
about 1 month ago
The UKās radical āPreston modelā faces an uncertain future with local elections looming | Andy Beckett
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The UKās radical āPreston modelā faces an uncertain future with local elections looming | Andy Beckett
A Lancashire council has pushed on with plans to keep wealth and power in the area, despite such ideas being out of fashion in Westminster. But Reform could unravel it all, says Guardian columnist Andy Beckett
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/apr/20/radical-preston-model-uk-westminster-reform?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=bsky_gu&utm_medium=&utm_source=Bluesky#Echobox=1776669571
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The Guardian
26 days ago
Rightwing populism is littered with broken promises. Its opponents need to make those failures count | Andy Beckett
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Rightwing populism is littered with broken promises. Its opponents need to make those failures count | Andy Beckett
As Trump lurches from tariffs to wars and Farage makes unrealistic pledges about immigration, their impunity needs to end, says Guardian columnist Andy Beckett
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/apr/24/rightwing-populism-littered-broken-promises-trump-farage-immigration?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=bsky_gu&utm_medium=&utm_source=Bluesky#Echobox=1777015369
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On current polling, Reform and Tories get 373/650 seats from 45% vote share Greens/Labour have similar vote share, Lib Dems a little behind Greens unable to pick battles, vote inefficiently distributed Labour pushing progressive voters away Between them Starmer and Polanski will cause real harm
26 days ago
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Still trying to understand the SNAP clinda results Does anyone know what proportion of participants received clindamycin prior to randomisation?
#ESCMIDGlobal2026
27 days ago
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Bayesians, don't worry If you are doing treatment shortening trials, you don't need to resort to old fashioned duration A vs duration B trials MAMS-ROCI (DURATIONS) design trials, that respect your priors, are coming soon!
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27 days ago
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Still trying to understand the SNAP clinda results Does anyone know what proportion of participants received clindamycin prior to randomisation?
#ESCMIDGlobal2026
27 days ago
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Tom Yates
Michael Marks
about 2 months ago
Do you have a background in Health Economics and want to come and do a PhD on Syphilis and STI We have a funded studentship
@lshtm.bsky.social
. Come and collaborate with a great group of academics, clinicians and community groups Open to people eligible for UK PhD Fee Status - Apply by 11th May.
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2026-27 NIHR UK Syphilis Research Scholarship | LSHTM
The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) is pleased to invite applications for a 3-year full-time PhD studentship, starting in September 2026.The award will cover a tax-free stipend
https://www.lshtm.ac.uk/study/fees-and-funding/funding-scholarships/2026-27-nihr-uk-syphilis-research-scholarship
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Simon Evans
29 days ago
NEW: How is the UK govt aiming to "break the link between gas and electricity prices"Ā ā and will it work? While headlines āsuggest a decisive shift", says Aurora's Marc Hedin, "the reality is more incrementalā + comments from UKERC, Regen & more
www.carbonbrief.org/...
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WRITE TO YOUR MP ACTION - donāt leave refugees in limbo, back EDM 2908 - Fight for Asylum Rights
https://fightforasylumrights.org/back-edm-2908/
29 days ago
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Good to see my MP
@stellacreasy.bsky.social
calling out nonsense claims from the Home Office about fictional 'savings' that would be achieved by reducing immigration to the UK
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29 days ago
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Tom Yates
Gregg Gonsalves
29 days ago
To RFK Jr. and all the anti-vaxxers: this is your handiwork.
www.nytimes.com/2026/04/21/o...
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Opinion | When Your Child Dies of Measles
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/21/opinion/measles-child-britain-vaccination.html?unlocked_article_code=1.clA.eB1F.ioXV_yRD_-CR&smid=url-share
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Tom Boyles
29 days ago
The Diagnostic Detective attempts to explain why study design is the biggest enemy of RCTs of diagnostic tests
open.substack.com/pub/thediagn...
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Why Randomised Trials of Diagnostic Tests (almost) never show benefit to patients - Part 2
Better tests donāt necessarily improve outcomes. The problem isnāt the technology ā itās who we test, and when.
https://open.substack.com/pub/thediagnosticdetective/p/why-randomised-trials-of-diagnostic?r=1mlpyg&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
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Cool paper flagged by Oriol Manuel at
#ESCMIDGlobal2026
Explant kidney from CMV positive donor Perfuse immunotoxin that knocks down CMV infected monocytes Then, hopefully, when you proceed to transplant, CMV burden that you transplant is removed/attenuated Proceeding to phase 1 RCT (NCT07488481)
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Inhibition of cytomegalovirus reactivation by ex vivo treatment of human kidneys with the SYN002 immunotoxin - PubMed
Human cytomegalovirus (HCMV) is a ubiquitous pathogen that establishes latent infections, with no accompanying disease. However, during immune suppression, eg, during organ transplantation, the virus ...
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41690368/
29 days ago
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Most 'sepsis' trials don't tell us about empiric therapy ACORN trial (piptaz vs cefepime) was a notable exception, possible because there was a consent waiver and the trial was embedded in the EHR Need more of these studies, incl studies with less American choice of antibiotic!
#ESCMIDGlobal2026
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Cefepime vs Piperacillin-Tazobactam in Adults Hospitalized With Acute Infection
This randomized clinical trial compares the use of cefepime vs piperacillin-tazobactam and the risk of acute kidney injury and neurological dysfunction in adults hospitalized with acute infection.
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2810592
29 days ago
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Tom Yates
Simon Hammann
about 1 month ago
Don't be shy to take on a little two-week side project. These five months will be the most precious three years of your academic journey.
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Important caveat regard SNAP clinda result is that people could be randomised up to 72hrs post positive blood culture As with GNR trials reported yesterday, this was NOT trial of empiric therapy What should we do now if someone comes through door looking gram positive and toxic?
#ESCMIDGlobal2026
add a skeleton here at some point
29 days ago
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Lots of cool trials reporting at
#ESCMIDGlobal2026
OCTOPUS - low dose CT better than CXR (and US) to diagnose pneumonia in older adults SNAP - adjunctive clinda in SAB doesn't help, may harm. Interestingly, no excess C diff PROCALBAN - daily POC PCT -> safe, big reductions in Abx duration in LMIC
29 days ago
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TB folk! Can we square idea of transmission from people with no/few symptoms with literature suggesting minority of cases are source of disproportionate number of transmission events? Maybe these people have dense contact networks, don't/can't seek care, their disease is slow to progress/regress?
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A sign of superspreading in tuberculosis: highly skewed distribution of genotypic cluster sizes - PubMed
Heterogeneity in the number of secondary cases caused per infectious individual is a plausible explanation for the observed skewness in genotypic cluster size distribution of TB.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/23446314/
30 days ago
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Superb session at
#ESCMIDGlobal2026
on the PeterPen and ASTARTE trials Important results, great discussion, thanks to
@angelahuttner.bsky.social
and friends Big remaining evidence gap concerns optimal empiric (rather than follow on) therapy ACORN study strategy with consent waiver may work
30 days ago
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šØšØ Critical result presented at
#ESCMIDGlobal2026
šØšØ Suspect we are dealing with the strain first described in Swaziland, which is also found in Mozambique (link in next message) Big implications for clinical care and diagnostic algorithms
add a skeleton here at some point
about 1 month ago
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Terrifying results from Dr Nomonde Mvelase (OS081) I491F, rifampicin-R NOT detected by Xpert assay, is common in South Africa - 47% of isonizid-R isolates have this occult MDR Likely to be strain initially observed in Swaziland, which was commonly BDQ resistant (testing of RSA isolates planned)
about 1 month ago
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