Tom Yates
@tomayates.bsky.social
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Epidemiology, infection
https://profiles.ucl.ac.uk/37299-tom-yates/about
pinned post!
NEW PREPRINT! We systematically reviewed molecular epidemiology studies looking at strain discordance in pairs of people with TB disease and history of household contact We found 30 studies from 18 countries. Excluding 4 studies at high risk of bias, we had data on 1544 household case pairs [1/n]
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Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex Strain Discordance Among People With Tuberculosis and a History of Household Contact, a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis
Background: In this systematic review of molecular epidemiology studies, we describe the prevalence of Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex strain discordance amo
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5929224
7 months ago
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Still very interested in answers to this question! I guess it is tractable with some form of crude simulation - will have a play
#EpiSky
#StatSky
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about 13 hours ago
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BMJ stripped down article format is problematic. Piece felt like comment rather than science to me, albeit comment from experienced health economists Seems likely that diverting billions to marginally effective drugs will harm patients. Accurate quantification of that harm is obviously difficult
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about 14 hours ago
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TB friends, am I right in thinking that the Union Conference and TB Science are still in-person only, i.e. no remote attendance option?
#TBSky
1 day ago
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This 'cost of living populism' could be much more effective than new nuclear submarines at limiting Putin's power. Moscow would be delighted if Farage were our next PM
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1 day ago
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Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus
2 days ago
The PARTNERS clinical trial to evaluate potential treatments for Bundibugyo virus has opened enrolment today for
#Ebola
patients in the
#DRC
:
bit.ly/4eTXPJT
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Patient enrolment begins in a scientific trial to identify the first effective treatments for Bundibugyo virus disease
In a major international effort to evaluate potential treatments for Ebola disease due to Bundibugyo virus (BVD), the PARTNERS clinical trial has opened enrolment today for patients in the Democratic ...
https://bit.ly/4eTXPJT
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Health costs of the UK-US trade deal on pharmaceuticals
Samuel Cross, Karl Claxton, and Andrew Hill argue that diversion of billions of NHS funding to pay more for new drugs under the UK-US trade deal will harm public health and result in thousands of exce...
https://www.bmj.com/content/394/bmj-2026-340588
2 days ago
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Burnham should listen to
@alfdubs.bsky.social
, and the soft left should not support Burnham's bid for Labour leadership if he equivocates Cc
@stellacreasy.bsky.social
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8 days ago
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Statistical geneticists - why aren't you using Suhail Doi's IV het model for GWAS meta-analysis?
#StatsSky
#EpiSky
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Advances in the meta-analysis of heterogeneous clinical trials I: The inverse variance heterogeneity model
This article examines an improved alternative to the random effects (RE) model for meta-analysis of heterogeneous studies. It is shown that the known âŚ
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1551714415300070?via%3Dihub
9 days ago
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Darren Dahly
10 days ago
Forcing early career researchers to constantly talk about the "impact" of their research is also forcing them to learn to lie.
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Jo Kibble (Political Animal)
10 days ago
Yes, obviously it is suspended, but is it operating or not? Useless TfL app.
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Does anyone know of QBA methods to correct estimates from case control studies, where a proportion of the controls were never at risk?
#episky
@mattpfox.bsky.social
11 days ago
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Does anyone know of QBA methods to correct estimates from case control studies, where a proportion of the controls were never at risk?
#episky
@mattpfox.bsky.social
11 days ago
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I think Starmer's record was mixed - some very good things, some very bad things. Stepping down was one of the good things, as continuing would have made a Reform government much more likely
13 days ago
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Would be interested to hear of examples where you think frequentist confidence intervals versus Bayesian full probability distributions resulted in a meaningful difference in how trial results were interpreted
14 days ago
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Guest Lecture 17 June 2026, does the shingles vaccine prevent dementia?
YouTube video by Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Science
https://youtu.be/qlTnnQytOJ0?si=X3C9aApZAHTtDLkp
14 days ago
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The people united ...
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16 days ago
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Christabel Cooper
16 days ago
It is extremely important that Labour understands that the movement of voters between Lab and Ref was not the crucial factor, it was consolidation of the anti-Ref vote and Lab voters turning out in droves. Otherwise Burnham will make the same mistakes as Starmer in targeting only one set of voters.
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The wood began to move !
YouTube video by Florian
https://youtu.be/9jcuFdHuIYY?si=BnP24JMG0uY2w9Hx
16 days ago
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Enjoyed learning Buxton's Law - "It is always too early for rigorous evaluation (of a new technique) until, unfortunately, it is suddenly too late."
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18 days ago
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I am uncomfortable with the idea that we lock people up for expressing ideas/opinions, even if that is stating support for 'terrorist' activity Both Mandela and Emelline Pankhurst led violent resistance We already have lots of law to deal with violence, damage to property, financing terror, etc
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18 days ago
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Whoza Mtwana
YouTube video by Abdullah Ibrahim - Topic
https://youtu.be/4DzJD_8va34?si=HZqGiJP9Blr5SVjn
18 days ago
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Ruth Curtice
22 days ago
I was surprised to see a chart on BBC Verify yesterday -
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
- highlighting that âdefence spending has fallen as welfare spending has risenâ. It didnât look quite right to me so we took a closer look....⤾ď¸
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What's happened to UK defence spending?
BBC Verify looks at the size of the UK military after Lord Robertson criticises the government over defence spending.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c6244zqnk16o
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Colman O'Sullivan
21 days ago
Thousands have turned out for an Anti-Racism rally in Belfast city centre, organised by United Against Racism and supported by Trade Unions
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âThere should never be a cost barrier to lifesaving vaccines, and we hope this becomes a regular vaccination programme.â Profoundly disagree with Alex Stanley from NUS Agree we should spend more on healthcare but, within budget envelope, decisions should be taken rationally, to maximise utility
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UK school leavers and new students to be offered meningitis B vaccine
One-off programme to begin in July after recent MenB outbreaks in Kent, Dorset and Berkshire killed three people
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2026/jun/12/uk-school-leavers-and-new-students-to-be-offered-meningitis-b-vaccine
23 days ago
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This is why we should always do RCTs Curious result though What do we know about oseltamivir's activity against human neuraminidases? Is there variation in human NA function / expression? Do we know much about role of human NA in acute infection?
@tom-parks.bsky.social
@gushamilton.bsky.social
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23 days ago
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Is there good empiric data to support the idea that narrow spectrum beta lactam plus aminoglycoside (as empiric therapy) is better than broad spectrum beta lactam, from stewardship point of view? What proportion of CPEs also carry aminoglycoside resistance genes?
@idiots-pod.bsky.social
29 days ago
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Missed this nice commentary from
@gushamilton.bsky.social
and
@mendelrandom.bsky.social
- lots of food for thought for someone thinking of dipping their toe into some infection genetic epi ...
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Mendelian Randomization and Infection: Pitfalls and Promises - PubMed
Mendelian randomization (MR) is an increasingly common study design in infectious diseases (ID). It holds promise for identifying causes and consequences of infections where conventional epidemiology ...
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/40435229/
about 1 month ago
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Gregg Gonsalves
about 1 month ago
Holden Thorp is an institutionalist. He's been a university chancellor, provost, now EiC of Science. When institutionalists pull the fire alarm, we listen, because the call to action he issued this week exposes the dire nature of the threat we are facing. 1/
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
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Another red alert for American science
Although research has bipartisan support in the US Congress, and trust in science is above 75% across the country, the Trump administration seems as determined as ever to mortally wound the nationâs s...
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aej3572
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Chris Dillow
about 1 month ago
New substack: what Labour should learn from Thatcher:
chrisdillow.substack.com/p/the-35-str...
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The 35% strategy
It is both electorally expedient and morally correct to ignore large chunks of public opinion.
https://chrisdillow.substack.com/p/the-35-strategy
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New Internationalist
about 1 month ago
'When someone is forced to beg from strangers, this is not just a sign of economic hardship, but the collapse of a social contract that held the lives of Palestinians together.'
newint.org/indigenous-p...
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Cowardice, and a misreading of the problem Given supply side constraints (and the climate crisis), we want to discourage consumption whilst protecting those on low incomes Why not just provide targeted support?
@stellacreasy.bsky.social
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about 2 months ago
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Kai Kupferschmidt
about 2 months ago
New info from
@who.int
is that the Ebola case in Kinshasa that was reported yesterday tested negative in confirmatory testing âand is therefore not considered a confirmed case.â That would be some good news at least!
www.who.int/emergencies/...
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Ebola disease caused by Bundibugyo virus, Democratic Republic of the Congo (The) & Uganda
On 5 May 2026, the World Health Organization (WHO) was alerted of a high-mortality outbreak of unknown illness in Mongbwalu Health Zone, Ituri Province, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), includi...
https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2026-DON602
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Hearing annoying advert from
@royalosteosoc.bsky.social
, which dunks on GPs, on
@newstatesman1913.bsky.social
podcast prompted me to look up who funds them Various alternative therapy nonsense (tumeric), also UCB who make Romosozumab No mention of this relationship on their webpage about the drug
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Romosozumab (Evenity): Drug Treatment for Osteoporosis
Information on Romosozumab. How it works as a drug treatment for osteoporosis, who can take it, how it's given and possible side effects.
https://share.google/JK8rUlIkenw9VX3Oj
about 2 months ago
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Rob Ford
about 2 months ago
Just received this in my inbox - interesting both for what it says and that the Mayor's office (Burnham's office) saw the need to say it. Burnham can *run* for Westminster and remain Mayor while doing it, but if he wins he has to immediately resign. That's good for Burnham & Lab prospects imho 1/2
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BK. Titanji
about 2 months ago
#Ebola
#Alert
About 246 suspected cases and 65 deaths have been reported, mainly in the Mongwalu and Rwampara health zones. Four deaths have been reported among laboratory-confirmed cases. Suspected cases have also been reported in Bunia, pending confirmation.
africacdc.org/news-item/af...
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Africa CDC Calls Urgent Regional Coordination Meeting Following Ebola Virus Disease Outbreak in Ituri Province, DRC â Africa CDC
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia / Kinshasa, DRC, 15 May 2026 â The Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) is closely monitoring the confirmed Ebola Virus Disease outbreak in Ituri province, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and is working with national authorities and partners to support a rapid, coordinated response. Following consultations with the [âŚ]
https://africacdc.org/news-item/africa-cdc-calls-for-urgent-regional-coordination-meeting-following-ebola-virus-disease-outbreak-in-ituri-province-drc/
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Streeting's choice - does he want to lose to someone who may be able to beat Farage, or to lose to someone who probably can't beat Farage? The NEC should find a way for Burnham to stand
@stellacreasy.bsky.social
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about 2 months ago
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Nice
#dataviz
Can someone redo this as a surface, with the third dimension being density of councils/seats? The Labour/Tory/Reform sector of the surface looks to contain many more communities than the Green sector
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about 2 months ago
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Is this idea of Starmer winning on second preferences credible? Surely he'd get knocked out in first round, with his votes distributed between Streeting and the soft left candidate? The key question, for me, is how many left/soft left folk remain as members
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âHold the lineâ: Burnham tells allies in parliament he still has options to return
Greater Manchester mayor seeks to reassure his supporters after potential seats for him fail to materialise
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/may/13/hold-the-line-burnham-tells-allies-in-parliament-he-still-has-options-to-return
about 2 months ago
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What a farce. Also new roads and airports. Time for Starmer to go
@stellacreasy.bsky.social
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about 2 months ago
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This was really excellent - recommend watching back the recording when available
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about 2 months ago
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Tom Yates
Paul HĂźnermund
about 2 months ago
From now on, I'm going to write papers where I take an arbitrary performance metric, restrict the sample to top performers on that metric, and then hunt for negative correlations with everything else in the truncated sample. I'm at a business school, so this should be extremely lucrative.
add a skeleton here at some point
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Darren Dahly
about 2 months ago
It's so painful to watch these people say things like "So go to museums during your leisure time, play an instrument, speak 4 languages, eat right, sleep well, don't smoke, don't drink, exercise regularly, and don't let yourself get too stressed too often" with a straight face.
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Rob Ford
about 2 months ago
The âBlue Labourâ strategy still being promoted by some on Labour right is premised on being able to win social conservatives while holding on to social liberals. Failure state for this strategy is failing to win social cons while alienating social liberals. Here is a map of that failure state:
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I think Rayner would be much better than Starmer or Streeting. However, unless things change, she would be unlikely to be PM beyond the next election, even if she did well. At the recent local elections, 18/19 seats being contested on Tameside Council were won by Reform
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2026 Tameside Metropolitan Borough Council election - Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Tameside_Metropolitan_Borough_Council_election
about 2 months ago
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Has there been anything good written on how to deal with negative feedback loops in MR? E.g. variants that amplify signalling downstream of the receptor may result in lower measured levels of the substrate
@gushamilton.bsky.social
#EpiSky
about 2 months ago
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Tom Yates
Bob Melling
about 2 months ago
I know that localised cultural norms affect voting patterns but Blue Labour's inability to recognise that demographic differences between places doesn't mean that the core Labour coalition differs massively between places has me wondering if they would recognise their own mother if she put on a hat.
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Clive Lewis MP
about 2 months ago
It is whether, by staying on, he does lasting damage to Labourâs ability to govern, rebuild trust, and stop the advance of the right. That is why a timetable for his departure is now necessary. The longer this is delayed, the greater the damage to the party and the country. 4/4
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Clive Lewis MP
about 2 months ago
We cannot pretend this is a âbad nightâ, a difficult cycle, or a messaging problem. It is a political crisis, and unless we face it honestly, it risks becoming terminal. The Prime Minister has reached the point where the question is no longer whether he can recover. 3/4
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Agree with this, though increasingly difficult for Labour to find winnable seats in North West How about an arrangement where Burnham makes the decisions and does all of the talking, with Starmer staying on as PM in name only?
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'It's Clear We Need A Change Of Leader â Andy Burnham Must Return To Westminster', Says Labour Peer
Writing for HuffPost UK, Lord Dave Watts said the electorate have clearly rejected Keir Starmer.
https://share.google/OpTahtst4VToysKqb
about 2 months ago
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Labour needs a reset - Mahmood must go & immigration reforms be dropped - Palestine Action appeal must be dropped & meaningful pressure applied if violence continues in Palestine - reverse ODA cuts - smart tax reform (see below) - bold offer on housing, scrap right to buy
@stellacreasy.bsky.social
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2p switch from National Insurance to Income Tax could raise ÂŁ6 billion while protecting workersâ pay packets ⢠Resolution Foundation
The Chancellor should protect workersâ pay packets and level the playing field on how different forms of income are taxed â including a 2p cut in employee National Insurance (NI) offset by a 2p rise i...
https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/press-releases/2p-switch-from-national-insurance-to-income-tax-could-raise-6-billion-while-protecting-workers-pay-packets/
about 2 months ago
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