Scott Pelley has provided @status.news a statement blasting current CBS News management and even accusing them of having tried (and failed) to "inject falsehoods and bias" into his stories. www.status.news/p/scott-pell...

Finished a fun short paper looking at early warning signs of recessions, focusing on unemploy. claims data. Claims often to signal downturns earlier, particularly initial claims (i.e. displacements). Project digitizes weekly claims data back to 1940s, hope others can use it! doi.org/10.1016/j.ec...

It may not be the sexiest motor, but the station wagon will always be a winner: ft.trib.al/a869HF4

I'm the AI pessimist. @causalinf.bsky.social is the AI optimist. Season 5 of The Mixtape — The Odd Couple — is us doing real economics research live, on air, using Claude Code. Come for the causal inference. Stay for the existential dread. causalinf.substack.com/p/the-mixtap...

For those in the neighborhood, @willhpyle.bsky.social will give the next talk in the 2025/26 Carol Rifelj Faculty Lecture Series on Wednesday at 4:30 p.m. in Hillcrest 103. The topic is Russian Public Opinion, the War in Ukraine, and the Lingering Effects of the Soviet Collapse.

Never underestimate the quest for knowledge no matter how irrelevant it may seem in the moment If I hadn’t gone to a public university, I honestly wouldn’t have ever bothered to watch a basketball game. But now? “Boxing out” is a top ten skills for boarding public transportation

arXiv📈🤖 AI-exposed jobs deteriorated before ChatGPT By Frank, Sabet, Simon et al

Here is Sharyn Alfonsi’s email to her ‘60 Minutes’ colleagues in full:

It's wild to me that the profession, macro in particular, essentially ignored Larry's role in laying the foundations for the 2008 crisis. Their dismissal of Brooksley Born's warning is also dripping with sexism, so par for the course. @akhilrao.bsky.social www.pbs.org/video/frontl...

Since we don't yet have new official claims data, my last (?) rogue report (I missed last week!), for week ending Nov. 1st. CC increased 20k (SA) or 7k (NSA) last week.

The @financialtimes.com suggests US drew $900 million worth of SDRs from its (~$170 billion) account at the IMF and transferred them to Argentina so Argentina could make a scheduled debt repayment to the IMF. on.ft.com/4oBeQMm

Every month for the last 77 years, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has estimated Americans' unemployment rate This streak dies tomorrow Govt staff could not survey Americans about whether they're working or looking for work in Oct, the 1st time in 934 months This blind spot will remain forever

Week #5 Rogue Unemployment Report, Halloween Edition 🎃 (hoping we won't have a Christmas Edition...). Data up to week ending Oct. 18th. Insured Unemployment ticked up slightly: +34k or 2.2% (NSA), +28k or 1.5% (SA)

Week #4 Rogue Unemployment Report (compiled from state data). Insured Unemployment relatively steady (+18k or 1.2% (NSA). -6k or -0.3% (SA). (excl. CO, MA, TN, not reported yet)

Government of the scammer, by the scammer, for the scammer

Two amazing signs

Week #3 Rogue Unemployment Report: Insured unemployment (Continued Claims) (excl. AZ, MA, NV, TN: not reported yet) declined by 8k (SA), so pretty steady.

In the United States. Not another country. Happening right now.

Three big announcements concerning new data from the AEA on the #EconJobMarket First, there are now live dashboards on AEA JOE that show the # of jobs listed on JOE each week, with comparisons to recent years. These will be updated weekly. www.aeaweb.org/about-aea/co... #EconSky 1/many

Did DOGE save us $2 trillion? “Not even close. .. Total spending excluding interest rose $220 billion, or 4%, for the entire fiscal year.” 🤡 @wsj.com www.wsj.com/economy/tari...

Trump’s tariffs won’t deliver many jobs on.ft.com/4ncOgYN | opinion

New post, I finally wrote my thoughts on the Stephen Miran Federal Reserve speech. I think it shows yet another reason for central bank independence. Without it, you can't tell what's a genuine outsider take and what's just carrying water for the Executive. mikekonczal.substack.com/p/mirans-cas...

@stlouisfed.bsky.social Modest suggestion for FRED: can you add a sort by "time series length" option? When teaching I often like to show long time series. When I sort by "observation start" I often have to wade through pages of time series that start early but end in, e.g., 1948.

When Minneapolis dramatically reduced zoning restrictions home prices fell 16-34% and rents fell 17.5-34%. Powerful stuff. Technical details in great research below.

Let's focus on qualifications: Antoni finished grad school 5 years ago at Northern Illinois with no distinction. Dissertation: No focus on labor or data collection. Zero publications. One lifetime citation (by a former colleague). This record would not earn you a job as junior economist at BLS.

Looking for a 2 page explanation of CES Benchmark revisions? I wrote one at www.congress.gov/crs-product/...

Dr. Erika McEntarfer has devoted her career to public service. She has conducted herself as BLS Commissioner with great integrity. There is no evidence whatsoever that BLS data are politically biased. #econsky

🚨 Excited to share a new working paper with an exceptional former student of mine, Helena Gu. The paper looks at the impact of one of the largest zoning reforms in US history: the Minneapolis 2040 plan. We find significant impacts on home prices: (1/N) ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/glodps...

This piece is very moving, and reflects how I am feeling about the Israel/Gaza calamity. Silence in the Face of Gaza's Starvation is Absolute Betrayal of Holocaust Victims By Orit Kamir Originally published in Haaretz substack.com/home/post/p-... Thanks to @deanbaker13.bsky.social for posting it.

An explosive whistle-blower report claims that the Justice Department is asking government lawyers to lie to the courts, and that this has forced career officials to chose between upholding the Constitution and pledging loyalty to the president. Listen to today's episode of "The Daily."

Ah the joys of peer review. One referee: "this result is not interesting, you should remove it from the paper." Another referee: "this is the most interesting result in the paper, you should do more here." Convex combination= leave as is?

Canadians have been threatening our essential telecommunications infrastructure for decades

IF YOU ARE IN ONE OF THESE DISTRICTS PLEASE MAKE A CALL RIGHT NOW DOES NOT MATTER IF YOUR VOICE SHAKES CALL AND SAY YOU OPPOSE BBB Scripts here: 5calls.org

Today is my first official day as Associate Professor of Economics with tenure! Super thankful for the support from family, friends, and colleagues helping make this dream a reality.

Wow. Put all in one place and . . . Wow.

Wendy Edelberg of @brookings.edu: If One Beautiful Bill passes, US will add $24 trillion to the federal debt over the next 10 years (past promises + new tax cuts). If Congress were honest, it'd be willing to raise the debt ceiling by $24 trillion, not the $4 trillion in the bill wapo.st/4kTSxiL

Everything that’s happened over the past six months has been a response to an imaginary crisis. There is no immigrant invasion. No trade crisis. No scientific or governance crisis. Just people completely high off their own supply trying to fundamentally reorder society. None of this had to happen.

Influenza vaccination reduces respiratory-illness doctor visits by over 25 percent in young children, from Michael L. Anderson, Carlos Dobkin, Devon Gorry, and Hung-Fu Tseng https://www.nber.org/papers/w33856

The $1tn shadow bank lending boom https://www.ft.com/content/b7729107-afb1-4fd7-bfd2-434d1ef7edbb

Well I guess we won't be citing that paper anymore. Good for MIT for handling this proactively. economics.mit.edu/news/assurin...

Good morning New York. While you were sleeping, this was the most-read story www.ft.com/content/9019...

From @robinwigglesworth.ft.com: "Although the chances of the US government haphazardly defaulting on its debts is still vanishingly small, the price of credit default swaps on Treasuries has climbed markedly in recent weeks." #DebtCeiling on.ft.com/3GKIj5H #econsky

🚨 REPLICATION REPORT UPDATE: One year ago, a tweet by John Holbein alerted me, @ollefolke.bsky.social, and @jopieboy.bsky.social to a paper with a shocking result about Sweden’s law criminalizing the purchase of sex.🧵

"I'm going to govern in econometrics" is a winning campaign slogan for the ages.

“Famously commonsensical Canada reminds us that some things — patriotism, self-respect, dignity — matter more than short-term growth.” My column on the meaning of Carney’s stunning victory. www.ft.com/content/f063...

No more "my ship has come in"? Port of Long Beach traffic predicted #econsky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

The free speech website where the owner (who believes in free speech) will throttle your access if you criticize him - even if you support all the far-right conspiracy theories and bigotry he supports. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

“By accepting the grant award, recipients are certifying that: (i) They do not, and will not during the term of this financial assistance award, operate any programs that advance or promote DEI…” …was the point at which I emailed my PO to withdraw my pending award. My soul has expensive taste.

Melinda Pitts, research center director, Center for Human Capital Studies @atlantafed.bsky.social estimates that the potential reduction in the full federal workforce, including contract and grant employees, could be as high as 1.2 million www.atlantafed.org/blogs/macrob...

SPY is down 2.3% rn and we’ve all gone numb to it