Veteran detained by ICE: I identified myself as a US citizen and a veteran, but that didn't matter. Agents smashed my window, sprayed tear gas into my car, dragged me out. Even after I complied, I was held for 3 days without charges. No phone call, no lawyer, no medical care

From Apollo. I would’ve done five years ahead, which has a less good fit, but also less overlapping data, but the main point stands: for the longer-term investor, the stock market has a lower expected return than bonds, and more variance.

Our national debt and prospective deficits are in the “getting the gang together and choosing their weapons” scene in the movie, right before they go to work on our economy. https%3A%2F%2Fmedia1.giphy.com%2Fmedia%2F1eEv7v51FEI3L54jpr%2Fgiphy.gif

Great pre-doc positions at MIT Sloan for those interested in economic research: apply.interfolio.com/176006 apply.interfolio.com/177709

Breaking: Francesca Gino to receive @FIFAWorldCup prize in economics

Personal tweet: give this song a listen— first release from The Badgers co-written by my cousin (Felix Fry, also on drums). Check them out if you’re in London. open.spotify.com/track/4pjWWB...

Boston from MIT Sloan, December, at dusk

Hmmm. Hints of people losing faith in the economic institutions of our country. Unfortunately, lots of other hints too, like www.ft.com/content/beaa...

New book from my brilliant classmate!!

Humor alive and well in these groveling times . . .

Come on ⁦‪@nytimes‬⁩, just disagree respectfully with recent applied micro, don’t call it LATE dementia

All these people . . . Maybe they should build a large online retailer and compete, rather than trying to cut down the Amazon

Sitting in the hospital and the neighbor has The Price is Right on TV, and I must say it’s a lot more exciting than I remember, post-inflation surge and in the world of on-again off-again tariffs.

Strange, because there has been no change in the correlation between their dividends

Really enjoyed this conversation with @jc-econ.bsky.social and Seth Carpenter. Thanks to @wendyedelberg.bsky.social for expert moderation and @brookings.edu for hosting! The event has passed, but you can still watch the video.

Its no surprise that one of the countries with the highest standards of living in the world is run by an economist! And President Tharman has run Singapore's finances brilliantly for decades. t.e2ma.net/click/amidrn...

DOGE cost the taxpayers money and may have infected Musk with Trump’s history of failed businesses and bankruptcies.

Great MIT finance PhD student on the market! Paper: low deposit betas are due to *small* deposits from inattentive borrowers. So the deposits channel of monetary policy works through large deposits which have large betas & flow out of banks when rates rise. www.yevheniiusenko.me/research.html

There are economic results about which there is real uncertainty or disagreement. But where the field agrees, ignoring us is like ignoring gravity. You will fall. My favorite @noahpinion.blogsky.venki.dev post evah open.substack.com/pub/noahpini...

Really good job market paper on global capital markets. Amazing data, cool IV based on MMMF regulation. Powerful evidence on when, how, and why CIP violations arise and why the dollar has negative beta and a safety premium. www.umangkhetan.com/research

Someone needs to be reminded that “we the people” are people, even when we question our leaders. Thank you for your attention to this matter.

Great job at CBO just posted . . .

Today’s edition of wealthy criminals let out of prison by Trump only to commit more felonies and hurt more people. archive.ph/2025.11.14-1...

Próximo passo é convencer a Índia, diz Catherine Wolfram

aaaaand we are back to private sector job losses in ADP, 4-wk avg loss of 11k in the week ending Oct 25 implying a sharp deterioration at the end of the month given the 42k monthly gain for October. This new data series is basically averaging zero net private sector job creation since August

This is such a bizarre talking point; I've thankfully never had to use most of the types of insurance that I have for me and my family This is a good excuse to share my WSJ letter to the editor explaining that "not filing a claim doesn’t mean you didn’t need insurance" www.wsj.com/opinion/the-...

Trump: "Nobody knows what magnets are."

The AEA has the GREATEST JOURNALS including the one that people actually READ many times unlike UNAMERICAN ASSOCIATIONS. Our AWESOME latest issue has 100 NOBEL PRIZEWORTHY papers HERE: www.aeaweb.org/issues/826 Thank you for your attention to this issue.

Are you interested in the economics of "junk fees"? A great JEP summary here: www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

An automated email arriving from a simpler time

Boston, you complete me

An interesting issue in global capital markets is that a lot of EM sovereign borrowing is (again) happening in loans rather than sovereign bonds, thanks to China. What does this mean? pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/...

Ben Bernanke, revisiting earlier work, shows how much financial distress of borrowers, not just lenders, significantly depressed credit flows, spending and economic activity in the Great Depression -- and politicians saw normalization of credit flows as top priority. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

The EU is running a tight race to the bottom with the US for fiscal insolvency. Here is a great summary of the situation, and how much fiscal adjustment is required by country: pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/...

How bad is the US fiscal situation? Could it be sustainable? Is there anyway out besides a crisis and Great Depression II? pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/...

When economists express concern about US fiscal situation, a common response is "what about Japan?" Here is the answer: pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/...

No. The real victims here are the people who can hear.

👀 Scoop: IRS Direct File, the free government-backed program that let you file your taxes for free, is dead. IRS wrote to state tax agencies saying it would not be operational this coming tax season, per records I've obtained. IRS Direct File: 2023-2025. (Story from when the pilot launched.)

Still corruptly running political ads on our Treasury department webpage

This is corruption. Bessent should be embarrassed to use a U.S. government webpage for political advertising.

Happy Halloween, America !

Solution train LLMs on economists!

The final Reagan ERP, laying out the case for free trade in Chapter 4: fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/econom...

This is part of how we used to build things quickly

According to the Wayback Machine, the Reagan Library's video of his address "on free and fair trade" had just 274 views last December. It had 232k views at the time of the last snapshot, in July. Today it's about to cross half a million.

Meant to post this sooner. Inflation hit 3% Y/Y. Not as hot as could have been but still warm. Troubling that 40% of the data are now imputed due to staffing shortages prior to shutdown. kpmg.com/us/en/articl...

Picture of the East Wing demolition of the White House taken on my flight out of DCA.

Calling social scientists! First sentence & last sentence of this quote are a very confident claim and a very confident forecast. Is there social scientific evidence or is this Supreme BS?

Every now and then I go back and read the Citizens United ruling to see if it is as unhinged as I thought, and every time I do that I see it is actually far more deranged than I remembered. levernews.com/book

The Trump White House