Seems this moved or something . . . economics.mit.edu/people/facul...

Nice in memoriam. First memory: dinner with Chris in New Haven (when I was on the market) and I spent dinner critically questioning him about his BPEA & NBERMA papers and it was one of the best "what are we doing in macro" conversations I have ever had. mailing.econometricsociety.org/t/r-l-tulkil...

NEW: University of Michigan Chinese researcher dies after allegedly "hostile questioning" by federal agents www.detroitnews.com/story/news/l...

Jamie Dimon's annual letter closes about the U.S. He criticizes U.S. policy uncertainty and pushes for doubling EITC, free trade (and fair), only limited and market-based industrial policy. Ends quoting the Constitution and "we need to be stronger." www.jpmorganchase.com/ir/annual-re...

Very good thinking and advice here, written for econ graduate students in econometrics, but much more broadly applicable . . . . economics.mit.edu/sites/defaul...

NYT didn’t try to sanewash this which is good I guess? www.nytimes.com/live/2026/04...

trump stop threatening war crimes challenge 2026 (impossible, apparently)

There are now 10 toilets in Space International Space Station: 4 Crew Dragon Docked at ISS: 1 Soyuz Docked at ISS: 1 Tiangong Space Station: 2 Shenzhou Docked at TSS: 1 Artemis II on way around Moon: 1 This will be the first time a toilet has left low earth orbit!

I keep seeing "all authors use AI, the real issue is they're being forced to be sneaky about it" headlines. Full stop No. This is a lie peddled for normalization. It's schoolyard-level pressure tactics "C'mon, all the cool kids are already doing it. We won't tell. It's fine. We're on your side."

This is a nice exercise in how to mislead with statistics, and proposed a foolish demand-side policy. I like that it addresses how to pay for it, but with a need to fund or cut 25% is Soc Soc in 5 years, it’s unrealistic. Democrats Need a New Promise: A House by 30 www.nytimes.com/2026/03/30/o...

Looks like we might find out whether there is any meat beyond the MMT tautology that a country that issues debt in its own currency never has to default . . .

Parker proposal: last 6 gms of the season do not count for draft/lottery; end-of-season dice roll sets how many of previous 6 count. Teams lose 1% lottery odds (10 #'s) per 1% record is below 30%. E.g. if in bottom 3 w/ 25% winning pctg, go from 14% chance to win lottery to 9%.

The US Federal is 5.8% of GDP in 2026, and projected to increases to 6.7% in 2036 under current law (relative to 3.8% past avg). Your share of Federal debt is $85,000 if shared equally, so $340,000 for a family of four. Coming soon: default and depression, or higher taxes & lower benefits.

One of the most important issues for the world over the coming century is population growth, and here is a widely accessible introduction to the issues: www.aeaweb.org/issues/836

Saddened by the passing of Chris Sims. When he spoke in seminars, I *always* learned something. And he was otherwise a normal person, talked about books, laughed, & treated junior faculty & grad students well. I miss and treasure the regular informal lunches with Princeton macro group in 2000’s.

This Goldman chart is not aging well

They must know some people. 🤡 @wsj.com www.wsj.com/politics/nat...

Where does the water go once it is “used” by the data center? The answer is: nowhere. The water is just warmed up. So we have this new tech that doesn’t burn fossil fuels, produce toxic chemicals, or create radioactive material. It warms water. Seems like we should be able to handle this one.

I love this. But I hope there is also a plan if Republican ICE policies come and try to take our lives, our liberty, and our pursuit of happiness, as they have elsewhere by killing Americans w/ impunity,violent home invasions w/out court issued, warrants, and w/ illegal threats by masked gunmen.

Thanks World Economic Forum for publishing my article on unbundling data and goods. It's a market-oriented approach to privacy policy. The goal is not to prevent using data, but to give consumers choices and get us a better deal. #dataprivacy www.weforum.org/stories/2026...

When visiting the NYFed, you are engaging with financial economics, where even an out-of-the-money option has value!

Happy ἐξελαύνω Day to all who celebrate!

That Trump II is killing its way through every level of Iran's leadership until the unqualified recent hires are in charge is consistent with the notion that hegemons always try to export their ideal regime type.

MIT Sloan's Masters in Finance Program remains best-in-class for financial economics (not financial engineering, where other programs are better). The industry eats up our graduates because they understand the math AND the economics. mitsloan.mit.edu/sites/defaul...

Former ICE agent: My first day training new cadets, I received secretive orders to teach them to violate the Constitution by entering homes without a warrant. I watched ICE cut classes that teach our legal system, firearms training, use of force, lawful arrests, and the limits of officers' authority

MAGA Republicans have joined the loony left and are killing the golden goose that raised lifespans, health, and wellbeing across the entire distribution and every major subgroup. Trump’s Challenge to Free Market Capitalism www.nytimes.com/2026/02/22/b...

Great opportunity to learn from one of the best, @adamberinsky.bsky.social, in an online seminar (including a free intro!) instats.org/seminar/surv...

This is the most fundamental form of constitutional defiance. Marbury v. Madison, THE formative decision in the separation of powers, says “It is emphatically the province and duty of the judicial department to say what the law is.” So when a judge says “the law is X,” the law is X.

Newsletter: With Trump faltering and their policy agenda incomplete, the cryptocurrency industry has moved at least $288 million toward the midterms in a desperate bid to keep Republicans in control of Congress. www.citationneeded.news/crypto-super...

How quickly we went from “No Kings” to envying the way a king adheres to the rule of law

In case you want to read the Fed study for yourself: libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/02/who-...

From an actual King, respect for the law: “Let me state clearly: the law must take its course.”

Who is this sloppy, water-guzzling guy named Al?

Big government.

Of course, we do not completely believe in any rankings, even that of the @FT, which is the best, but still . . . www.ft.com/content/414d...

ICE secretly told its officers that any time someone has been ordered removed, ICE can break down their door. It has been accepted for generations that the only thing which can authorize agents to break into your home is a warrant signed by a judge. No wonder ICE hid this memo!

Coinbase must be concerned I'm at risk of running out of material

Beef Stew Home Stewing After Beef

Back to the usual q: incompetence or dishonesty?

Updated CBO deficit/debt forecast. Good summary from CBO Director Phil Swagel. www.cbo.gov/publication/...

Please don't think anything is back to normal in Minnesota. Nothing is normal. I know we’re strong. Don’t know if it’s enough. If you don't live here, your Minnesota friends may tell you that it's going to be okay but I think a lot of that is them being nice so you won't worry. It's bad here.

This a good article with a bad headline. This is not the wisdom of crowds. This is thousands of amateur gamblers losing money so experts who collect information and insider who have it can profit from (partly) revealing it www.nytimes.com/2026/02/11/b...

Great symposium on competition and market power in labor markets! www.aeaweb.org/issues/836

Great symposium on the economic consequences of declining fertility www.aeaweb.org/issues/836

And it looks like we picked the wrong week to schedule our five fly outs if we were actually interested in hiring anyone

Thank you for your attention to this post

The Republican Party in America has abandoned rule of law.

Republicans: The problem isn’t guns. It’s mental health. Also Republicans: *slash mental health funding*