Two often-conflated debates I think it's worth treating as separate are: 1) Can tariffs theoretically be used to achieve policy objectives? and 2) Are our current governments sufficiently strategic, skilled, informed, independent, incorruptible, and long-termist to use them that way?

That depressing feeling that the UK and perhaps much of the rest of Europe may become stuck in a Peronist downward spiral of failing to come to terms with a changing world. Because it is so much easier to promise past glories than future unknowns.

The hill I will die on is that we cannot understand this far-right authoritarian moment without paying attention to and understanding how the media shapes narratives and perceptions

What is demand starts turning down, though? Suddenly the logic flips: you want to pump as much as you can in the near future, while demand for your product is still strong. If you wait too long, you might never get to sell at all.

Les filles font parler la poudre. #AccidentalRenaissance.

After a few recent conversations on #Bsky, I have come to realise that, bar a few specialists like @michaelshurkin.bsky.social and @taubhistory.bsky.social, very few Americans know and understand 20th c. French military history. I might write a couple of threads to bust a few myths.

For non-Americans, the bewildering thing is the apparent powerlessness of the political opposition, and the lack of mainstream media pushback (on this latter point, all is not well in the UK either).

Teaming up with Isreal in an attempt to secure the free passage of shipping in a navigational choke point in the Near East, only to find that your ally on the other side of the Atlantic denies you support.

🚀 I published a new Missile Matters post reviewing the state of European long-range strike procurement, and diagnosing what I call a European Sonderweg: a divergence from the rest of the world in this capability area. Link: missilematters.substack.com/p/a-european... Summary below. 1/4

📍Liban | Coopération et partenariat militaire entre la 🇫🇷 et le 🇱🇧 : ⚔️ Actions de formation sur le combat d’infanterie et ses déclinaisons  🚁 Module d’appropriation de drones légers et leur usage en opération   🎯 Les armées 🇫🇷 aux côtés des armées 🇱🇧 pour œuvrer au maintien de la stabilité.

Last year, I had the pleasure to speak at the Vienna Digital Cultures Festival on the theme of 'Model Collapse'. I talked about military AI, techno-fetishism & what I call ‘artificial idiocy’, not meant as a slur but as a marker of the erosion of public-mindedness. www.youtube.com/watch?v=8k08... 1/

"Echoing" - AI identity drift by context window contamination. (NB also works for indirect back channels such as social media, public statements etc)

Statement by the leaders of Canada, France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom on the escalating conflict between Israel and Hezbollah

Looking at Washington's seeming inability to mobilize its allies in its war with Iran, I cannot stop but thinking of the associative nature of power. One necassary and sufficient condition enabling it is that actors around the one claiming to be powerful should play along.

European media report infinitely more and in more detail about US politics and political protagonists, than about EU politics. That is a serious problem. @eppgroup.bsky.social MAGA drift, breaking the ban and working explicitly with the far right should be headline news everywhere.

4/ Ok, so what ARE the goals? It seems, primarily, destroying lots of missiles and boats and drone factories. But the question that stumped them: what happens when you stop bombing and they restart production? They hinted at more bombing. Which is, of course, endless war.

We have successfully bombed a school, gotten 7 soldiers killed, disrupted the world economy, and replaced an 86 year-old supreme leader with his much younger, more hardline son who is more committed to building nuclear weapons. Operation Middle East Wing is all but complete. by Donald J. Trump

The Smart Bomb Trap escalationtrap.substack.com/p/from-kosov...

It is clear that the US and Israel plan to do to Iran what Israel has done to Gaza. There is something evil that is emerging. Europe can't just stand by while 90 million people are carpet bombed. Sanchez is right.

We bombed them. To do what? So we can bomb them. To do what? To facilitate strikes. To do what? To enable kinetic operations. To do what? To shape the battlefield. To do what? So we can bomb them.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHHAAHHAHAAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAGAHAHAHAHAHA

To be sure, allies may think about French nuclear deployments as something alike US deployments, but I the motivation from the French perspective could be more about survivability and flexibility than anything else. The better framework of reference might be conventional concepts of operations.

French President Macron: Germany, the UK, and France will work together on long-range missiles.

I see some folks reading into Trump's statement about all the second and third choices to lead Iran already being killed the notion that Israel got ahead of the US's plans, but I think it's more likely the US doesn't have a plan and Israel does

“Our attack was so successful we inadvertently created a power vacuum” is a new one to me tbh

It's pretty plausible as a scenario that after having inflicted chaos the Trump administration seizes the first opportunity to declare victory and walk, leaving EU/UK, Turkey and Gulf states holding the bag

IRAN is America’s war, Europe’s consequences: ⛽ Energy shocks 🚢 Refugee waves 📈 Far-right surge on arrival ⚖️ Rules-based order Washington gets the geopolitical prize, if it works. Europe foots the bill, either way.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

The Pentagon’s ultimatum to Anthropic might signal an Iran war, enabled by AI for generating targets at scale, that looks more like Gaza than it does last June’s Twelve Days.

This is my (admittedly pessimistic) take on US policy in Asia. We are distracted, divided, and resource constrained. The question now is not whether the US will pivot to Asia, but how far we might pull back. I fear that simply trying to defend the first island chain is not a feasible strategy.

Sécurité / L'Europe discute de la création de son propre bouclier nucléaire inspiré de l'arsenal français.

Emmanuel Macron calls for the issuance of "future-oriented Eurobonds" to finance strategic projects and challenge the hegemony of the US dollar. "The global market, in fact, is increasingly afraid of the American dollar. It's looking for alternatives. Let's offer it European debt."

Europe is dealing with a Trump administration that is “openly anti-European”, “shows contempt” for the EU and “wishes its dismemberment”, French President Emmanuel Macron tells the FT www.ft.com/content/b5b2...

🇺🇸🇨🇳 Dans cet article publié par Le Grand Continent, @mathildevelliet.bsky.social, décrypte la guerre des factions qui déchire Washington sur la politique chinoise. ⤵️ legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2026/02/0...

This is your regular reminder to disconnect on the weekend and do things that are good for you.

Much to consider. www.ft.com/content/3382...

Of course China is a huge strategic challenge for the EU, India and everyone else. But turning as complex a society as China with its own mix of strengths and weaknesses into a projection space for American neuroses of decline is not going to help anyone handle China's impact on the wider world

This took me fucking ages

If even Fico thinks Trump is not entirely compos mentis...

The National Defense Strategy implies, but doesn't explicitly state, that the US will continue to provide nuclear deterrence to Europe, even as it reduces its conventional forces. How credible is extended deterrence without major conventional skin in the game? media.defense.gov/2026/Jan/23/...

Use the Greenland dispute to present the EU as weak, indecisive and dependent on Washington. Highlight European confusion and symbolic protests to show that Europe cannot defend itself or articulate a clear position without US consent. 4/7

“.. The United States is being ushered off the international stage. History will remember that as Trump’s most significant contribution.” @timothynoah.bsky.social @newrepublic.com newrepublic.com/article/2055...

"The US has never had a rival like China: its equal or more in technology, trade and military power." Bronwen Maddox on the challenge posed to the US by China's rise to power. Watch in full➡️ bit.ly/4pHKSpH

This image was carved on the orders of an ageing autocrat to show an imaginary version of himself smiting his foes during a wildly exaggerated victory decades earlier. It’s the kind of thing that unrestrained royal narcissists did thousands of years ago.

European foreign policy is a mess because national capitals claim its their "national sovereign" responsibility to do foreign policy. Meanwhile, Euro states tend to appoint weak FM (its rarely the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd job ministers want) and b/c of the weakness of their states. Its a commercial... 1/

"We can begin to talk about an era of US hemispheric imperialism, where it intends to dominate its hemisphere on terms that it sets." General Sir Richard Barrons on the worldview guiding Donald Trump's foreign policy. Watch in full➡️ bit.ly/4pKbff0

Another excellent piece by @sbeverts.bsky.social, arguing inter alia for stresstesting EU financial dependencies. www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2026/...