If even Fico thinks Trump is not entirely compos mentis...

The National Defense Strategy implies, but doesn't explicitly state, that the US will continue to provide nuclear deterrence to Europe, even as it reduces its conventional forces. How credible is extended deterrence without major conventional skin in the game? media.defense.gov/2026/Jan/23/...

Use the Greenland dispute to present the EU as weak, indecisive and dependent on Washington. Highlight European confusion and symbolic protests to show that Europe cannot defend itself or articulate a clear position without US consent. 4/7

“.. The United States is being ushered off the international stage. History will remember that as Trump’s most significant contribution.” @timothynoah.bsky.social @newrepublic.com newrepublic.com/article/2055...

"The US has never had a rival like China: its equal or more in technology, trade and military power." Bronwen Maddox on the challenge posed to the US by China's rise to power. Watch in full➡️ bit.ly/4pHKSpH

This image was carved on the orders of an ageing autocrat to show an imaginary version of himself smiting his foes during a wildly exaggerated victory decades earlier. It’s the kind of thing that unrestrained royal narcissists did thousands of years ago.

European foreign policy is a mess because national capitals claim its their "national sovereign" responsibility to do foreign policy. Meanwhile, Euro states tend to appoint weak FM (its rarely the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd job ministers want) and b/c of the weakness of their states. Its a commercial... 1/

"We can begin to talk about an era of US hemispheric imperialism, where it intends to dominate its hemisphere on terms that it sets." General Sir Richard Barrons on the worldview guiding Donald Trump's foreign policy. Watch in full➡️ bit.ly/4pKbff0

Another excellent piece by @sbeverts.bsky.social, arguing inter alia for stresstesting EU financial dependencies. www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2026/...

modern american politics consists of experts patiently explaining why something insane that people are talking about could never happen, followed by that exact thing happening

The Brief – Merde! The French were right all along

45% in Europe (EU10) see China as "a necessary partner", 51% say the same about the US. Impressive numbers. www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026...

While figuring out a targeted response, the EU should not forget that the US has much more sophisticated tools, esp. in finance & digital infrastucture. Hardening against these and de-risking are urgent task.

Can you imagine Europeans negotiating with the US an Article 5-like guarantee to protect Ukraine against a future Russian attack while the US actively undermines the real Article 5 by threatening to annex territory from another NATO member?

I’ll yet again remind that management and leadership are different things. While managing risks is no doubt important, paralysis caused by unknown-unknowns is no excuse for refusal to lead. Especially in trying times.

"Europe’s biggest underpriced risk is financial dependence on the United States" I argue for @carnegieeurope.bsky.social. Great set of 'blind spots' with @cerianbond.bsky.social, @sophiabesch.bsky.social @dimitarh.bsky.social @jakubjanda.bsky.social @alanderminna.bsky.social and more

Groenland en direct : Macron convoque un Conseil de défense face aux menaces de Trump

Kaja Kallas privately told lawmakers the state of the world meant it might be a “good moment” to start drinking. Regretting my dry Jan decision...

Just another reminder to disconnect on the weekend and do things that are good for you. And yes, that may include a sweet treat.

What about if observers are killed?

When Trump takes Greenland with no major repercussions, he won't stop there. This doesn't mean invading Europe. But it does mean destroying European social democracy. 🧵

Anonymity, algorithms and consequence-free posting don’t just reveal harmful attitudes, but reward them.Transgression brings attention and community. When that’s the incentive structure, racism, misogyny and eventually CSAM aren’t aberrations. They’re the logical end point.

“Modern cognitive warfare is not a war in the literal sense of the word. It is not a conquest of geographical territory, but rather competition for the human mind and the ability to transform the worldview of people in society in a particular area.” digitalcommons.usf.edu/jss/vol16/is...

Best take I’ve heard, IRL: “This operation looks like it was designed by the same people who did the East Wing.”

Les évènements au Venezuela rappellent le témoignage de Fiona Hill devant le Congrès américain en 2019 / Quand la Russie était prête à réduire son soutien au régime de Maduro si les États-Unis cessaient leur soutien militaire et politique à l'Ukraine d3i6fh83elv35t.cloudfront.net/static/2019/...

Trump is trying to force US oil companies to rebuild Venezuelan oil fields that are too expensive to invest in at current crude prices while a full blown energy revolution is happening with cheap solar and electrification growing exponentially. This is a dying empire shit.

Brilliant from @attackerman.bsky.social

The economist had a poll in the field when Iran was bombed. Look what happened.

Cliffs of Moher over calm seas. County Clare, Ireland.

Trump's threat to bomb Iran made something clear to me in a way I hadn't yet formulated: His conception of US military force, like his conception of the federal govt, is now entirely personalized. It is a power to be wielded not on behalf of US interests but on behalf of his personal whims.

There’s never been a better time to be European. Here’s why! A happy and independent new year to all Europeans and residents of our continent

It’s almost like green energy is the only way forward and a handful of oil barons are doing everything in their power to keep that from happening so they can get even richer at the cost of literally everything else in the world.

Trump may be extreme in all sorts of ways, but looking at the last 30 years of US politics, there’s no reason to think of Trump as an anomaly.

2. Russia isn’t a great power, so stop thinking of it as one.

this new years eve I'm reminded of an old Soviet toast: Here's to another average year - worse than the one before it, but better than the one ahead

Donald: "Putin wants to see Ukraine succeed" Prez:

The outrageous sanctioning of EU lawmakers and citizens in order to pressure democratically-elected European governments to change their laws shows just how intent the US government is on controlling Europeans' lives. We must go into 2026 with eyes open.

Europe’s ‘destructive moral ideas’ could jeopardise nuclear powers, JD Vance says

Yay, look what Santa (and @nktpnd.bsky.social ) brought me for Christmas 🎅🧨🚀

📢NEW ARTICLE!📢 #OpenAccess The polarised electorate: affective polarisation and electoral loyalty in #Turkey’s 2023 critical election 🔓 Read the article by @seaytac.bsky.social, @sedairmak.bsky.social & @busrask.bsky.social here 👇 www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Signs here that UK elites are moving towards an accommodation with the new politics. I call this the 'shadow election', in which power centres move towards likely winners and cue the electorate about what's acceptable. Saw it when Labour were the coming force too. www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/...

Hungary’s media landscape exists in a grey zone, where journalism’s boundaries are set by the whims of regulatory power. Under Trump, America is heading in the same direction, writes @cwherrmann.bsky.social. https://ecfr.eu/article/the-orbanisation-of-american-media-is-here/

Of course, talking to Germans about macroeconomics is often like talking to Anglos about sex: full of moralizing disguised as science and outraged fallbacks to "common sense."

This is just one part of the larger 'bonfire of the climate laws' that is being undertaken by the EU right now. There are multiple reasons this is happening. One is the perceived message from last year's 🇪🇺election that voters no longer care about climate change Two is pressure from the Trump admin

It’s stupefying to see the debunked “change through trade” - agenda (that blinded Germany towards the totalitarian turn of 🇷🇺 & 🇨🇳) make a comeback in Witkoff/Trump‘s Russia dipomacy (make money, not war). Putin doesn’t care for 💵, he wants his empire back. Germans learned it the hard way.

I guess it's fitting that it's a reimagined, worse version of someone else's artwork

all of these people were picked, in part, *because* they had no real prospect of advancing past where they're at. trump's the only person who would promote them, and everyone — both trump, and the people he promoted — all know it. it's why they're all loyal to him. that was the point.

To be fair it’s going to be very funny when these clowns invent AGI and the super intelligent machine tells everyone to get offline, avoid processed food, stroll in the woods, seek community, eschew racism, pay high marginal rates of tax and ignore the ravings of deranged billionaires.