Dr @bencenemeth.bsky.social highlights a marked shift in perceptions of the Chinese military. Once seen as large but outdated, it is now “either reached or is nearing military parity” with the US in key areas, marking a “dramatic shift.” 🔗Read more: bit.ly/4n6i61p #ChinaMilitary #IndoPacific

How can Europe balance urgent defence needs with complex cooperation? @bencenemeth.bsky.social argues that time, not funding, is the key constraint, suggesting frontline states to boost national capabilities first and then integrate them into NATO and the EU. Explore his insights: bit.ly/45CM47t

Congratulations to Dr @bencenemeth.bsky.social @NATO has featured his co-authored research paper in its #StrategicForesight manual. A fantastic example of how academic research from @KingsCollegeLon is shaping real-world #DefencePolicy. Full story 👉 bit.ly/43yxY4m #OurDividedPlanet

Congratulations to Dr @bencenemeth.bsky.social @NATO has featured his co-authored research paper in its #StrategicForesight manual. A fantastic example of how academic research from @KingsCollegeLon is shaping real-world #DefencePolicy. Full story 👉 bit.ly/43yxY4m #OurDividedPlanet

A new NATO handbook advising how to carry out strategic foresight activities has featured Dr @bencenemeth.bsky.social's research as a key case study. Read more about how Dr Nemeth's work is helping to train alliance members for future planning 👇 #OurDividedPlanet www.kcl.ac.uk/news/how-a-k...

US peace talks hit setbacks after Zelenskyy refused to recognise Russia’s control over Crimea. Dr @bencenemeth.bsky.social describes it a “significant downgrading” of negotiations. “The US is not positioning itself as a neutral mediator,” adds Dr Németh. Read more: bit.ly/3Gqun0E

With key envoys pull out, can the US still lead peace efforts if it’s no longer seen as neutral? "This is not just about diplomacy fatigue. It also signals a hard pivot: The US is not positioning itself as a neutral mediator." - Dr @bencenemeth.bsky.social Read: bit.ly/3Gqun0E

Putting a European in place as the leader of Nato forces might seem like an easy option, but there are several major issues.

What does the US-South Korea shipbuilding deal mean for naval power? "The US Navy will benefit from increased availability of ships...it could accelerate the growth of its fleet. This can help Washington maintain its global maritime dominance." - Dr @bencenemeth.bsky.social Read: bit.ly/42D9FTI

"Instead of building forces for a range of potential scenarios across multiple theaters, allies are being asked to focus primarily on fulfilling roles earmarked to them under the operational plans." www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-res...

I think 2 months ago this would be seen as a disaster. An American SACEUR is direct link to POTUS and thus the bomb. Seen as critical for credibility of US extended deterrence. But now, I think worst case is an uncommitted US remaining in NATO as is but blocking Euros from organizing themselves. 1/

New Geopolitical Europe Pulse is out! Europe alone? Compilation of articles, feat. @maxbergmann.bsky.social, @lscazzieri.bsky.social, @bencenemeth.bsky.social, and @rafaelloss.bsky.social: geopoliticaleurope.substack.com/p/geopolitic...

"Without the United States as a steadfast ally, Europe faces a turbulent security environment where dangers can originate not only from Russia but also from the missteps of Western policies themselves." Just got quoted by The Sun: www.thesun.co.uk/news/3366763...

Without the USA as a steadfast ally, European nations are rethinking their security strategies, which bencenemeth.bsky.social of @dsdkings.bsky.social says offers opportunities as well as challenges. ▶️ www.kcl.ac.uk/a-new-geopol... Also see his previous article on defending NATO without the US 🔽

In my RAND paper on defending NATO Eastern Flank without the US, I argued that we need 3 EUR DIV (45k troops) in the Baltics to generate credible deterrence. This highlights its difficulties, let alone doing it with a peacekeeping mission in Ukraine simultaneously. kclpure.kcl.ac.uk/portal/en/pu...

“Every U.S. president has pressured Europeans on defense since Truman. The policy didn’t change, the style has changed.” Got quoted in @wsj.com on how Trump’s approach is shaking up NATO spending. www.wsj.com/world/europe... @dsdkings.bsky.social

North Korean provocations since 1953, by U.S. administrations. Source: beyondparallel.csis.org/database-nor... (from @korea.csis.org)

🌍🛡️ The Future of Defence 🛡️🌍 Nine essays on critical strategic topics, including: -The evolving roles of the UK and NATO in global defence. - The strategic implications of China's rising influence. - Ongoing tensions with Russia, North Korea, and Iran. rand.org/pubs/perspec... #UKDefence #RAND

An update from @covertshores.bsky.social on #Ukraine’s uncrewed maritime strike systems.

My chapter for @randeurope.org argues that as US resolve and capability for NATO is uncertain, Europe must prepare to defend itself against RUS without US support. Stationing 3 European divisions on the Eastern Flank is one of the first steps to credible self-defence. doi.org/10.7249/PEA3...

🚨new article online Looking at the global arms market, in this contribution @soulpark.bsky.social & Chirayu Thakkar argue that demand-side factors play an important part in explaining the success of second-tier producers. 👉 www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

My last publication for 2024, a short piece on why the combination of US tariffs and troops withdrawal may lead Europeans to turn to China, thus undermining US interests

‘Ukrainian intelligence sent about 20 experienced drone operators and about 150 first-person-view drones to the rebel headquarters in Idlib, Syria, four to five weeks ago to help Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)…the knowledgeable sources said.’ www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

Not the biggest or most important news at the moment, but as the UK’s defence review approaches its denouement you can feel the inter-service tension rising to boiling point. A natural consequence of sustained cuts over last 15 years plus de facto ring-fencing of nuclear enterprise, AUKUS & GCAP.

So for years I’ve been told by friends in the Middle East that Putin enjoys a high standing in the region because he “saved” Assad even as Obama disregarded America’s own red lines. The argument went something like this: “we may not like Putin but we respect strength.”

“OpenAI… is partnering with Anduril, a military contractor, the two companies announced Wednesday. As part of the partnership, OpenAI will integrate its software into Anduril’s counterdrone systems” www.theverge.com/2024/12/4/24...

“Following a pattern of undersea cable damage across European waters in the last year, with the most recent disruptions happening just weeks ago, top NATO officials have begun envisioning a capability that would allow the alliance to have permanent eyes above and under the waterline.”

If you declare martial law & several hours later the country’s principal news agency has as its main headline that parliament has repealed your martial law, and none of the provisions of that law have been enforced, then your coup has failed.

‘Data from the battlefield suggest that the hit rate for these AI-guided drones is currently above 80%. That is higher than the rate of manually piloted drones. As important, the training burden declines dramatically. “We can train an operator within 30 minutes…”’ www.economist.com/europe/2024/...

<New Publication>. Policymakers at NATO regularly mention “cohesion” as one of the alliance’s center of gravity. But what is cohesion and how can we foster it? In this open access paper, Dominika Kunertova and I provide a toolkit for policymakers. link.springer.com/article/10.1...

“The Russians are very, very busy in Ukraine, and that’s a big part of it,” said Mouaz Moustafa, executive director of the Syrian Emergency Task Force, a group that advocates for democracy in Syria. “Thank God for the Ukrainians.” www.wsj.com/world/middle...

This is news: Japan, U.K. and Italy to invite Saudi Arabia to next-gen fighter project asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Def... via @NikkeiAsia

Our latest Policy Brief for you to read! With talk of South Korea pondering a nuclear capability, what can Seoul learn from NATO’s experiences? Good stuff by Luis and Jina.

“The alliance needs to demonstrate progress in three areas of its conventional deterrence of Russia,” Henrik Larsen examines key gaps in NATO's planning, air defense, and reaction forces.

“Europe has all the requisite elements to be one of the world’s most important powers—except the ability to conceive of itself as one” writes @phillipspobrien.bsky.social 👉True! I think identity mobilisation has become a strategic factor in 🇪🇺. Europe will be safe the day Europeans believe in it.

My latest policy brief with Yang Uk, which looks at defence industrial cooperation between South Korea and Europe/NATO.

1/5 Trying a 🧵 here on a new article with @profpaulpoast.bsky.social & Tim Haesebrouck: doi.org/10.1177/0022.... Why do countries mutually agree to constraints on their behavior? Why do they comply with such constraints in the absence of enforcement mechanisms? #polisky #econsky #nato #europe

Excellent read by Lucas Hellemeier in @warontherocks.bsky.social. Conclusion: risk of a more fragmented European defence industrial base & bilateralisation of relationships warontherocks.com/2024/11/the-...

Come and join us for a very timely paper launch on the JEF and it's contribution to European security

"What if American protection for Europe vanishes, and Europe cannot replace it?" Leon Mangasarian

If the comments are anything to go by, the average Times Radio listener has a better grasp on the defence challenges facing Europe than quite a few European governments do. youtu.be/tgMer9NtxnI