The final publication of this year, co-authored with Ville Sinkkonen, examines Finland’s historical and contemporary role in great-power competition. The chapter appears in The Palgrave Geopolitical Atlas. ➡️ link.springer.com/rwe/10.1007/...

Tomorrow, the heads of state and government of Finland, Sweden, the Baltic states, Poland, Romania and Bulgaria convene in Helsinki for the Eastern Flank Summit - an emerging coalition aimed at strengthening frontline perspectives in Europe, first and foremost within the EU.

📝New FIIA Briefing Paper! NATO’s newly extended frontline – from the European Arctic to the Baltic Sea and the Black Sea – adds up to an “aggregated deterrence” against Russia, write @pesumatti.bsky.social, Iro Särkkä and @linnainmaki.bsky.social.⤵️ fiia.fi/en/publicati...

Iro Särkkä, Joel Linnainmäki and I claim in our new @fiia.fi Briefing Paper that NATO’s extended frontline - which should be seen as a layered zone of strategically exposed areas - has become the strategic fault line of Euro-Atlantic security. 1/4

Iro Särkkä, Joel Linnainmäki and I claim in our new @fiia.fi Briefing Paper that NATO’s extended frontline - which should be seen as a layered zone of strategically exposed areas - has become the strategic fault line of Euro-Atlantic security. 1/4

Ulkopolitiikan tutkimuksen apurahahaku on jälleen auki. Rahoitusta haettavana Suomen ulkopolitiikkaa koskevaan väitöstyöhön. Haettavissa myös stipendejä väitöstutkimukseen liittyviin slaavilaisten kielten - esim ukrainan - opintoihin. Lisätietoja: ulkopolitiikantutkimus.fi/7201

Ulkopoliittinen instituutti katsoo toimineensa asianmukaisesti Oliver Stubbin rekrytointiprosessissa. UPIn johtajan Hiski Haukkalan lausunto korkeakouluharjoittelijan rekrytointiin liittyen: fiia.fi/ajankohtaist...

In his first big speech, Hegseth, in a message to Indo-Pacific allies, cited (the PATHETIC) Europe as a positive example of increasing defense spending. www.ft.com/content/bee0...

"Yet, a paradox exists. Currently, French nuclear doctrine doesn’t align with another ambition: European strategic autonomy. If the engagement with European allies must “go further,” France’s doctrine should change as well" warontherocks.com/2025/05/ever...

Miten eurooppalaista ydinpelotetta voidaan vahvistaa, ja mitä riskejä ja mahdollisuuksia siihen liittyy? UPIn paneelissa aiheesta keskustelivat Tapio Juntunen @juntta.bsky.social sekä UPIn tutkijat Jyri Lavikainen, Iro Särkkä ja @pesumatti.bsky.social Katso tallenne ⬇️ fiia.fi/en/tapahtuma...

Miten Suomi turvataan? Ensimmäinen #FIIAForum2025 paneelissa syvennyttiin tähän kysymykseen Outi Holopaisen, @pesumatti.bsky.social, @heljaossa.bsky.social, Harri Mikkolan ja Iro Särkän kanssa. Nykyisessä turvallisuustilanteessa painottuu erityisesti 🇫🇮 kokonaisturvallisuusmalli ja resilienssi.

Gen Cavoli in Senate Armed Services hearing: "From my perspective, as both SACEUR and EUCOM Commander, I have all the access and basing rights I need (in Greenland) to prosecute operations in the High North" www.c-span.org/program/sena...

Lue lisää päivän keskustelujen aiheesta tuoreesta FIIA Research Paperista, jonka ovat kirjoittaneet Harri Mikkola, @pesumatti.bsky.social, Tuomas Iso-Markku ja @charlyjsp.bsky.social. ⤵️

Uudessa @fiia.fi -tutkimuspaperissamme arvioidaan perustavanlaatuista kysymystä: miten Suomi turvataan? Analysoimme tekstissä valikoituja kansallisen turvallisuuden kulmakiviä, joiden varaan Suomi turvallisuuttaan rakentaa. fiia.fi/julkaisu/mit...

"Instead of building forces for a range of potential scenarios across multiple theaters, allies are being asked to focus primarily on fulfilling roles earmarked to them under the operational plans." www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-res...

Uudessa @fiia.fi -tutkimuspaperissamme arvioidaan perustavanlaatuista kysymystä: miten Suomi turvataan? Analysoimme tekstissä valikoituja kansallisen turvallisuuden kulmakiviä, joiden varaan Suomi turvallisuuttaan rakentaa. fiia.fi/julkaisu/mit...

”Pesun mukaan kahdenvälisiä suhteita voi tiettyyn pisteeseen asti korostaa, mutta lopulta Suomi on osa Eurooppaa. Mikäli Trump päättää, että Eurooppa saa jäädä omilleen, ei siinä Suomen erityissuhteella ole paljon sijaa.” @pesumatti.bsky.social

Three years of Zeitwende have failed to even put Germany onto the mental horizon of researchers not focused on Germany in Northern Europe. This piece by colleague @pesumatti.bsky.social has many interesting elements, but one of them to me is that Germany only gets a mention as a potential liability

Miten Suomi turvataan muuttuvassa turvallisuusympäristössä? Siihen syvennytään ensimmäisessä #FIIAForum2025 paneelissa 3.4., kun lavalle astuvat Outi Holopainen, Harri Mikkola, @heljaossa.bsky.social ja @pesumatti.bsky.social. Iro Särkkä moderoi. Ilmoittaudu livestriimiin ➡️ fiia.fi/tapahtumat/f...

Very interesting commentary highlighting ”Nordic Plus” (UK and/or France) as the best option for Finland.

"What would a possible [Finnish] Plan B look like? It can be summed up as ‘Nordic Plus’... Finnish leaders will likely turn to Sweden, Norway, the United Kingdom, and, potentially, France." rusi.org/explore-our-...

'Ukraine's experience demonstrates that Finland can only successfully deter Russia with external support' write @pesumatti.bsky.social and Dr Tomas Wallenius in the latest #RUSICommentary.

New piece by Tomas Wallenius and me: Two years into NATO, Finland faces an ironic reality. For many, joining was the final step in anchoring Finland to the West. Now, with Trump's uncertain commitment to Europe, it must consider alternatives to its US alliance.

"[Trump] and his allies see the cost of defending Europe as too high, given other needs. Coming to some kind of accommodation with Moscow, in this view, would allow the United States to bring home more troops or shift national security resources toward China" www.nytimes.com/2025/02/18/u...

Europe should view Trump’s wrecking ball approach to Nato and negotiations with Russia on the Ukraine war as “an opportunity”, not just a threat, President Emmanuel Macron will tell a hastily convened informal summit of European leaders at the Elysée Palace today. 1/

"One reason European imaginations are running wild is that Trump clearly has no oven-ready peace plan. 'The Americans are completely chaotic,' says one insider. Ukraine policy is a cacophony... no one knows who speaks for Trump." www.economist.com/internationa...

This is right. Trump faces real, actual trade-offs too. Bad deal that falls apart fast or Zelensky rejects? Stronger deal that requires coercing Russia and co-operating with Europeans on security guarantees? He’s not a master diplomat. Helsinki 2018 was disaster. North Korean summits fizzled.

The debate on potential European troop deployment to Ukraine lacks clarity. Would this be a tripwire force, a warfighting unit, a peacekeeping mission, or all of the above? What would be its mandate and size? Several key questions (understandably) remain unanswered.

Europeans cannot assume that America's military presence on the continent will last forever, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said today.

🌍 FIIA employs around 50 researchers who work on different themes of international affairs. Their expertise covers topics such as Finnish foreign and security policy, NATO, the EU, Russia, international climate politics, and geoeconomics. Make sure to follow FIIA's experts ⤵️

Onko Donald Trumpin uusi presidenttikausi Amerikan kulta-aikaa vai kaaoksen alku? Maria Lindén & @sinkkonenville.bsky.social keskustelevat USAn sisä- ja ulkopolitiikasta Trumpin 2. kaudella #UPILive -lähetyksessä ke 29. tammikuuta. @annilindgren.bsky.social juontaa. ➡️ fiia.fi/tapahtumat/u...

Should this be the analysis among European security officials, the urge to convene a summit and launch NATO activities in the Baltic Sea region seems quite perplexing - unless security agencies have failed to convince political leaders about their views. www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/0...

The 2nd Trump administration is likely to embrace disruption and chaos to achieve revolutionary rather than evolutionary change, @charlyjsp.bsky.social & Ville Sinkkonen say in a new FIIA Briefing Paper. They provide four lenses for observing the administration's strategy. ➡️ fiia.fi/en/publicati...

And the Finnish Institute of International Affairs is now on Bluesky at @fiia-upi.bsky.social! No organization in Europe punches above its weight more on international security and related issues. Good to see you here @haukkala.bsky.social, @pesumatti.bsky.social, and the entire FIIA team.

Make sure to follow FIIA's account for top insights on all things international affairs.

1) Leaders of the Baltic Sea countries will convene in Helsinki today for a summit addressing regional security and threats against critical infrastructure. The region is a potential NATO-Russia flashpoint — an area where two geopolitical spaces meet, creating friction.

"The Danish government wants to convince Trump, including through the messages passed to his advisers this week, that his security concerns can be addressed without claiming Greenland for the U.S." www.axios.com/2025/01/11/d...

Yes, the United States has not always fully lived up to the ideals it strives to represent as a nation. However, entertaining blatant territorial ambitions runs counter to the very principles at the core of its foreign policy.

The legacy of the Biden administration will be hotly debated. While Trump's first term ushered in a new era of great-power competition, Biden restructured alliances and partnerships in Europe and the Indo-Pacific, forging closer ties between these two regional structures. www.ft.com/content/2579...

Kirjotin syksyllä kriittisen Suomen ulko- ja turvallisuuspolitiikan perusteiden läpivalaisun. Pääargumentti: "Maailmanpoliittisessa murroksessa Suomen kohtalonkysymys on lännen elinvoiman säilyminen"

"We claim that in situations of extreme military asymmetry, such as the one between Latvia and Russia, the willingness to defend one’s country is strongly reinforced by allied measures to deter the adversary and reassure smaller allies" www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

A small-state perspective: holding Russian critical infrastructure at risk or responding in a corresponding manner carries significant risks, as Russia, being a more powerful actor, has more escalation options. Engaging in a tit-for-tat dynamic in such an asymmetric relationship is not desirable.

‘Vladimir Putin apologises for "tragic" downing of Azerbaijan plane in Russian airspace, without saying Russia was responsible’ www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

A central question about the Eagle S incident is how Finnish authorities persuaded the vessel to enter Finnish waters. Did the crew comply without hesitation, or was there a potential "stick" involved?

The Trump administration's alliance management strategy will likely be coercive. Allies should prepare for "maximum pressure" ahead of the Hague summit, as negotiations on the new defence spending target, its specific wording, and timeline intensify. www.ft.com/content/35f4...

"[Europe] is at the start of a medium-range missile build up, led first by the Russian decisions about the INF, followed by the U.S. response to Russia’s missile development,and now by the tensions over Ukraine." behindthefront.substack.com/p/a-new-arms...

Siitä seurantaan kova nippu ulko- ja turvallisuuspolitiikan osaajia!

A must-follow starter pack ! 😉

A B-52 bomber (60-0024), possibly one of a pair, over the Baltic entering Finnish airspace. This is a conventional-only version.