Volcano Hayli Gubbi erupted today in Ethiopia for the first time.

I already have a counterproposal: Russia pulls forces/proxies out of Ukraine—all of it—and removes offensive weapons from regions bordering Ukraine. Pays for all war damage—and reconstruction. All Russians engaged in war crimes stand trial. And Ukraine can join any alliance it damn well pleases.

This is so great

“How soon?” asked Toad. “Quite soon,” said Frog.

This would be great but it’s kinda funny that Germany would still have a small total force + reserve than Finland (wartime strength 280,000 and total reserve about 900,000) www.ft.com/content/6cbf...

This is quite a view as well, with twin lava fountains at Kīlauea right now: www.youtube.com/watch?v=tk0t... www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bqmp...

Mars - Valles Marineris - Orbit 25 - Hope Mission - From Andrea Luck (andrealuck.bsky.social) - https://flic.kr/p/2mzhnbG

The CCP is doubling down on decoupling. Western business leaders must abandon the illusion: meaningful access to China’s market is ephemeral. Any corporate strategy that depends on China for primary growth and profits is destined to fail.

As usual, @phillipspobrien.bsky.social cuts through the BS: “In the short term the Trump administration has actually helped Russia. It has provided a four week grace period for foreign companies to buy as much Russian oil as they possibly can.“ phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/the-new-us...

For context on how big a sale this is for Sweden: Ukraine will purchase about 1.5x the size of the entire Swedish Gripen fleet. ~95 Gripen currently in the 🇸🇪 Air Force: 60 New Swedish orders of Gripen E to phase out older C/D (just started being delivered). 120-150 Gripen E to Ukraine

“Vladimir Putin’s war is already costing Russia thousands of lives a day. It’s time it also costs him billions,” @adamkinzinger.substack.com writes. “If the free world has the courage to act, the math will do the talking.” adamkinzinger.substack.com/p/how-to-mak...

Dramatic photos show construction equipment tearing into the East Wing façade and windows, though the federal agency that oversees such projects has not approved President Trump's 90,000-square-foot, $250 million ballroom. n.pr/48AUON2

The best of dogs

🙄

Hi All, my latest book, War and Power: Who Wins Wars and Why, is being released in North America in two weeks. The Publisher, Basic Books/Hatchette, has just released a discount code for 20% if you buy through them. Code is WAR&POWER (not case sensitive). www.publicaffairsbooks.com/titles/phill...

”US intelligence helps Kyiv shape route planning, altitude, timing and mission decisions, enabling Ukraine’s long-range, one-way attack drones to evade Russian air defences” 🇺🇦🇺🇸 on.ft.com/3KMwsWG Ukraine hit Russian energy sites with US help

Hi all, Just sent out my free weekend update. It ended up being focussed on the strategic air war. Russia, once again, is trying to make Ukrainian cities unliveable in winter. They have benefited by the US slow walking air defense--though Europeans are helping more. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

A point in her favor

Well, I certainly have exceptional reading lined up for the next few weeks! Congrats to three great authors on these great new books!

Bottom line, stop blaming renewables, blame the grid for the outage. Very useful report.

Straight out of BLACK ICE Instead of navigating south, the ship steered a course through the frigid Arctic Ocean using the Northern Sea Rout - a major step forward in China’s quest to build a “Polar Silk Road” across the top of the world... edition.cnn.com/2025/10/03/c...

IC 1396 "Elephant Trunk" Nebula in SHO (Hubble Palette) - From Ryan Kinnett (rkinnett.bsky.social) - https://flic.kr/p/2m8Jm1w

More of this please

More of this please

More of this please.

Ceiling

“Unlike many of its allies, Australia has no published national security strategy; this should be rectified as a priority.” Great @engelsbergideas.bsky.social essay by @warinthefuture.bsky.social: engelsbergideas.com/notebook/aus...

NATO figures show Europe and Canada are catching up with the US: their share of #NATO defence spending rose from 28% in 2015 to 36% in 2024, and is expected to reach 38% this year. ⬇️ Felix Gasper reviews current defence spending by each NATO ally: icds.ee/en/defence-s...

Total lunar eclipse (Blood Moon) from Bangka Island, Indonesia. It was very cloudy, I almost gave up. Then in the last few minutes before the totality ended, the wind suddenly changed direction and I saw the faint sight of the moon.

The percentage of Americans that believe immigration is a net benefit to America reached its highest point this century, 79%, in Gallup’s most recent poll. These reverses a downward trend starting in 2021.

And yet much of the world keeps calling for Ukraine to reward Russian aggression and war crimes. Disgusting.

Blunt and necessary analysis from @glandsbergis.bsky.social: “Europe’s plans A, B and C have not stopped the fighting. Putin simply has no need to stop… As we say in Lithuania—all this should be obvious even to a horse.” landsbergis.com/europes-summ...

True beauty.

DC folks, I got a COVID vax appointment at CVS. Go get ‘em!

So in Sweden there is a raging debate over the new “cultural canon.” What belongs? How were the selections made? Should the list even exist? Whatever the merits, we can safely say that the Saab 37 Viggen puts the “canon” in “cultural canon,” where it now sits along side Pippi Longstocking.

The dictatorship that is currently attacking a European country despite saying that is has no desire to attack anyone says they have no desire to attack Europe

Really interesting piece by @nilsgilman.bsky.social. IMO gives China a bit too much credit for being "bravely planetary" but nonetheless appreciate the effort to identify a new geopolitical model to understand our world.

“Ukraine is still often incorrectly portrayed as a country occupying a geopolitical buffer zone between East and West. This is familiar to Finns, whose own country was condemned to similar geopolitical limbo during the Cold War.” By @alanderminna.bsky.social: www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrain...

Across the medieval world, the Moon induced feelings of fear and fascination. Mystery in the Moon | @katherineharvey.bsky.social engelsbergideas.com/reviews/myst...

“The Nordic and Baltic states have quietly demonstrated that Europe has done more than its fair share in helping an embattled ally. The continent as a whole is a lot stronger than it looks. Perhaps it’s time it knew its own strength.” A+ by @michaeldweiss.bsky.social newlinesmag.com/argument/the...

Mike Carpenter nails it: “Rather than devoting endless meetings to planning a reassurance force, Western policymakers would do better to focus on enabling Ukrainian success on the battlefield … and strengthening sanctions on Russia’s war economy.“ www.justsecurity.org/119673/ukrai...

I love the photo — it’s 1943, FDR in Morocco enroute to the Casablanca conference, being saluted by soldiers whose shadow you see, generals (including Patton and Devers) arrayed saluting both the president and soldiers, FDR’s hat and hand over his heart.

An important and excellent book by @anneapplebaum.bsky.social — if you haven’t read it yet, now’s the time.

Ukraine’s Independence is crucial for Europe & the future is carried by young generations. @freeworldforum hosted meeting with @thordiskolbrun Special Envoy on the situation of Ukrainan children. More focus & action on the abducted children is necessary 🇺🇦🇪🇺photo: Tove Lifvendahl 🙏

“If America achieves maturity, the primary mark of it must be the willingness to assume continuing responsibility in the world community of nations. We must seek to maintain a critical attitude toward our own power impulses.” — Reinhold Niebuhr (1944)

For tomorrow: US population: 340 million EU Pop. 450 M EU+UK+UKR 565 M Russia 143M US GDP 29 Trillion EU GDP 20 T EU + UK 24 T Russia 2.2 T What does neither the US nor Europe get? Trump thinks Russia is the only other superpower. Europe thinks it’s not a superpower.

Finland filed criminal charges today against the captain and crew of the suspected shadow fleet ship Eagle S, which is accused of attacking and damaging five telecom cables in the Gulf of Finland.

Plans for the bridge were first approved in the 1970s, but have stopped and started over the decades.