Let's drop the naivité and accept that this war will end on the battlefield after Ukraine achieves the necessary military strength, not in a conference room after a round of talks and a carafe of wine.

The unbombed farmers of Eastern Europe want protection from Ukraine while all the time Ukraine is protecting them from Russia. This makes no sense. In my oped for @politico I argue that the best way to resolve this is by accepting Ukraine as a full EU member. Now. Link below 🔗👇

EU enlargement requires real commitment from Brussels, otherwise candidates will simply drift away. We saw this in Georgia, and after today's announcements I am increasingly worried that we are seeing the same in Ukraine. More thoughts below 🔗👇

Was this the worst NATO Summit ever? “Well, at least it wasn’t a disaster,” a friend said when we discussed the matter. And I had to agree — it could have been much worse. For example, we might not have NATO anymore. But we still do. So, technically, yay. Read more in my newsletter below ⬇️

Ukraine is deterring Putin. Like all bullies, he will now be looking to escalate elsewhere, where he sees no deterrence. Are we really deterring him enough to stop him opening a new front?

The obliteration of Russian strategic bombers left us stunned — and rightly so. Strategists on all sides will now be forced to rethink what Ukraine is truly capable of achieving.

Maybe the negotiations aren’t even meant to work. Maybe the plan was always for Trump and Putin to meet to redraw Europe’s borders. But that isn’t a deal, that’s more like a pact. The same “peace plan” was tried in 1938 and it didn’t work out well.

Eleven weeks ago a “coalition of the willing” gathered together to discuss what they were willing to do. Since then they haven’t appeared to be willing to do anything at all. 🔗👇

This time the ESCALATION podcast features Ben Hodges, former commander of US Army Europe and outspoken supporter of Ukraine. Find out the truth about the strategic military options available to Europe to help Ukraine win on the battlefield. 🔗👇

"Taiwan is the West Berlin of this century" Find out more in the latest episode of my podcast ESCALATION, this time with @_JakubJanda, Czech expert on the Indo-Pacific region. Full episode linked below.

Ukraine isn’t the only country that needs security guarantees, but it might be the only country that can provide them. landsbergis.com/so-whos-guar...

I agree with @kajakallas that the EU should become a beacon of freedom. So when do we start? Here I offer six ways to actually light the beacon and step into the role history has chosen for us. Our response to the current uncertainty can be firm and long term. A thread.🧵1/17

Blue/Yellow is the biggest European NGO for military aid to Ukraine, providing around €100million since 2014. Fun fact - most of the money comes from Lithuania, a country of just 3 million people. Meet Jonas Ohman, my latest guest on the ESCALATION podcast. Full episode below👇

Witkoff's repeating of Kremlin lies about "russian-speakers" wanting to "join Russia" is truly chilling. This is nothing less than carte blanche for Putin's genocidal imperialism. Hearing Americans talk like this should be an electric shock for Europe, not a wakeup call.

I filtered out the noise and made a list of all the tangible things Europe has actually done in the past month to practically help Ukraine in reality:

The question of Ukraine joining NATO is when, not if. And that was agreed by ALL allies, during extensive discussions at the NATO Summits in Bucharest, Vilnius and Washington. I don’t recall members reconvening to ratify any backtracking since then.🧵1/5

Ukraine will win, one day, one way or another, with or without our permission. We aren’t here to lecture them on what to wear or how to negotiate. 👇My oped for Politico, link in comment. Happy Restoration of Lithuanian Independence Day ❤️🇱🇹

The Trump-Putin Pact already exists, and we should act accordingly. There are some things we will never change with nice words or smart clothing. If you are worried about those things, you should understand where Trump's tactics come from. From Russia. A thread. 🧵1/14

For China, becoming Europe’s new security guarantor would mean domination of our rich and resourceful continent, an aim that CCP strategists are now more than dreaming about. landsbergis.com/the-trump-puti…

We said “as long as it takes,” and well, it's gonna take a bit longer. Europe doesn’t need to back down now, not for Putin, not for Trump, not for anyone else who tests us. We can step up and stand firm. Here’s how:🧵1/8

I want to tell you a story. In 2015, I was in the small Lithuanian city of Panevežys, standing with the locals, watching a military parade. But this was no ordinary parade, because marching alongside the Lithuanian troops were our American allies.🧵1/17

Roosevelt's advice was to speak softly and carry a big stick. I am worried that President Trump is doing the opposite. He is shouting loudly, and when it comes to helping Ukraine he is carrying a small stick.

On a cold December evening in 2021, during an OSCE meeting in Stockholm, Lavrov outlined what he called “a new security architecture” for Europe. And Trump, knowingly or otherwise, might now be implementing those plans.🧵1/5

For Europe, money is the easy part. The difficult part is committing to fight alongside Ukrainians if they are ever attacked again. That is what we will have to be ready to do, like it or not.

Once again I am leaving the Munich Security Conference in a low mood. Amongst all the noise, the US signalled their plans for Europe, so things are becoming clearer. But things are clearly not good. This is what we now know, and what we have to do about it:🧵1/17

🧵1/6 Europe won't survive sleeping through another wake-up call. We should jump out of bed and throw on a shirt. We should do what we can, with what we’ve got. And we’ve got a lot. Here's how to step things up as the US steps down:

Georgia is being Stalinized. If it becomes a second Belarus, that would be a huge and unaffordable blow to Europe. My interview for @ipnEng: www.interpressnews.ge/en/article/1...

Hungary, your veto's got to go. Here I explain how and why in my article for Carnegie Endowment @CarnegieEndow: carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...

What are we going to do with Lake Nato? Read about the future of the Baltic region in my latest newsletter. Website link in bio.

Me and many others in @BusinessInsider warning that Russia is not getting less dangerous: www.businessinsider.com/russias-stru...

My extensive Ukrainian @Forbes interview: forbes.ua/war-in-ukrai...

Peace agreements will only work when Putin has lost all hope of victory. Let's make that happen.

My new ESCALATION podcast is out now! This time I talked to Thórdís Gylfadóttir, Iceland's Former Foreign Minister and fellow freedom fighter. We discussed Greenland, China, NATO and volcanoes. Link below ⬇️

To say Europe is in a tricky situation over Greenland would be an understatement, but this is a crisis we shouldn’t be wasting. Find out more in my latest newsletter, website link in bio.

It is no joke to say that Putin could get to Warsaw before western Europe would feel the existential threat necessary to trigger a bold enough reaction. The EU is in danger of becoming an existential threat to itself. 👇newsletter

Lukashenko's latest fake, rigged corrupt, ridiculous, farcical, fraudulent, evil, murderous, hideous, odious criminal theatrics should not be referred to as "elections".

President Trump put Putin in a tough spot by issuing an ultimatum. I'm sure this is not the way Putin expected things to work.🧵1/4

Trump is almost back in the White House, and China wants everybody to lose. My latest newsletter has more details on this historic moment, you will find the link below.👇

Bloomberg reports that the EU is considering dropping its @wto case against China due to a "lack of evidence" that China's sudden halt in trade with Lithuania was retribution for supporting Taiwan. Dropping the case is a bad idea, but don't worry, it gets worse.🧵1/6

I gave an important interview to Le Grand Continent and I think you will enjoy it. I go into detail about the changes happening in international affairs as Trump gets closer to his first day in office. geopolitique.eu/en/2025/01/1...

My deepest gratitude to the people of Taiwan and their President @ChingteLai for the huge honour of being awarded the Order of the Brilliant Star with Special Grand Cordon. What can I say? I will be with you whatever it takes, Taiwan. 🇱🇹❤️🇹🇼

People often ask me "why does Lithuania support Taiwan?". My answer is simple: We support democracy and freedom-loving people. To push back against aggression we all need to stick together. We have more in common than we dare to think! More about this in my newsletter below👇

The shocking events in Venezuela must be answered with an increase in solidarity among all democracies around the world. Only if we act together will freedom prevail.

Despite being warned many times, we weren't ready for Russia's attacks, and we're still not pushing back against nuclear bullying. We are as unprepared now as we were forty years ago when this British sitcom predicted everything. My latest newsletter👇

When Lithuania was defending her independence from Moscow, we were asked by Western powers to "pause" our struggle, to protect russia from collapse. If we had listened, our country might not exist today. Sometimes fighting is the only way to win.

"Hybrid attacks" look like war, but we act like they are not even attacks. news.sky.com/story/russia...

I am once again expressing grave concern that the only answers we have to russian malign activity are expressions of grave concern.

Everybody knows preparation is needed, but are not there yet. Thanks to @CurtainSilicon for this in-depth discussion. www.youtube.com/watch?v=fqTi...

Putin is waging a shadow war against the West, using sabotage and disinformation agents to undermine our confidence in our ability to defend ourselves. And it's working. Newsletter here 👇

Glad to see the Godfather of neoidealism @bctallis.bsky.social has a new book out, I recommended it to all those following the huge changes in Europe.