Russia will not allow Ukraine to be a country with a Ukrainian and European identity—this is what they mean by eliminating the root causes of the war. But it is not Russia’s decision to make, says Dr Taras Kuzio in an interview with @diplomaatia.bsky.social.

#ICDS20: Toomas Hendrik Ilves - "A grand strategy for Europe at the end of Pax Americana" Keynote speech by @ilvestoomas.bsky.social, President of Estonia (2006-2016) 🎦 www.youtube.com/watch?v=o8Av...

"The transatlantic relationship may get more normal after Trump, based on narrower shared interests, respectful communication, and predictability, but Europeans will have to grow up." @kristiraik.bsky.social

Panel discussion on Estonia’s security 20 years back, 20 years ahead: What brought us here? What will bring us forward? - Riina Kionka - Jüri Luik - Lauri Mälksoo - Jonatan Vseviov Moderated by @kadriliik.bsky.social, founding director of ICDS 🎦 Watch: www.youtube.com/watch?v=1oPt... #ICDS20

🔴 WATCH LIVE: Security for Europe Helga Kalm is moderating a keynote discussion with Yves Leterme at the EU conversation conference in Riga on European security. www.youtube.com/watch?v=_lmF... #TEUC2026

In the past 20 years, many things have changed, but our core values and goals remain the same. Introduction and opening remarks by Kaimo Kuusk, Kristi Raik, and President Alar Karis ➡️ www.youtube.com/watch?v=MET0... #ICDS20 @kristiraik.bsky.social

For the moment, when we hear "dubious ceasefire" we think of Iran. But before long it will be Ukraine's turn again. Valeriy Akimenko and I have laid out some repetitive patterns of false ceasefires with Russia, what makes a viable conflict-ending agreement, and how Moscow will resist that outcome.

Russia seeks a ceasefire when it assesses that it can gain greater advantage from freezing the fighting than from continuing it. Valeriy Akimenko and @keirgiles.bsky.social examine multiple historical cases of failed ceasefires and peace agreements with Moscow.

A glimpse of last night’s 20th anniversary celebration. Thank you for being part of it! 📸 More photos (by Marko Mumm): flic.kr/s/aHBqjCQs6B

Mõlema poole nõudmised on jätkuvalt kaugel teineteisest ning motivatsioon rahu saavutamiseks tuleneb pigem soovist vältida edasisi kaotusi kui siirast kompromissivalmidusest. Iraani ja USA vaheline konflikt näitab sügavat lõhet strateegiliste eelduste ja tegelikkuse vahel, kirjutab Marek Kohv.

Nii Orbani, Magyari, Euroopa, Ukraina kui ka Venemaa jaoks on kaalul väga palju. Samas pole kindel, et pühapäev toob selge tulemuse. @meriliarjakas.bsky.social kirjutab RKK uudiskirjas, et Tisza võib küll võita, ent Fidesz ei pruugi sellega leppida.

🔴 Watch live: Seminar on energy markets, sanctions, and Russia's energy sector. - Kadri Elias-Hindoalla - Veli-Pekka Tynkkynen - Ando Leppiman - Raivo Vare Moderator: Gert Siniloo @mfaestonia.bsky.social @vptynkkynen.bsky.social

Estonia’s security 20 years ago, 20 years ahead: What brought us here? What will bring us forward? This spring, we celebrate our 20th birthday. Thank you for being part of our journey and for the interesting discussions today. @kristiraik.bsky.social @ilvestoomas.bsky.social @kadriliik.bsky.social

The story of how the ICDS came to be begins not in 2006, when the centre was officially established, but in the late 1990s, when Estonia was taking its first steps toward NATO. @ilvestoomas.bsky.social @rkionka.bsky.social

Last week, ICDS hosted a discussion on strengthening Europe’s deterrence. The conversation focused on recent developments in nuclear cooperation and French nuclear doctrine. H.E. Mr @emmanuelmignot.bsky.social, Jyri Lavikainen, Dr Ian Anthony. Moderator: @marpaire.bsky.social

This is not the first time NATO has found itself in a crisis and in the past the alliance has come through them. The problem is that in the near future there is less certainty about Article 5, said Tomas Jermalavičius in an interview for Postimees. balticsentinel.eu/8445016/toma...

Just 7️⃣ weeks to go until this year’s #LennartMeriConference 𝗟𝗠𝗖 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲: 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝘁𝘂𝗻𝗲 𝗙𝗮𝘃𝗼𝘂𝗿𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗕𝗿𝗮𝘃𝗲 Visit the website – the first speakers are already announced, and the page is being updated regularly. ➡️ lmc.icds.ee

Europe’s economic stability and strategic autonomy rely on secure gas supply, yet its ability to act independently remains constrained without American LNG—highlighting the need to balance energy realities with renewable-energy ambitions, writes Andrei V. Belyi.

Netanyahu tegutseb põhimõttel, et maapinnal kehtestatud fakte on keeruline hakata tagasi pöörama ka siis, kui Trump või mõni järgmine USA president peaks Ameerika poliitikat muutma, kirjutab @icds-tallinn.bsky.social uudiskirjas @meriliarjakas.bsky.social.

A Taiwan Strait crisis would pose indirect but serious risks for Estonia—especially by altering Moscow’s strategic calculations. Indo-Pacific developments have tangible implications for Baltic security, write Toomas Hanso and Urmas Hõbepappel.

An infiltration by the "little green men" into Estonia is a scenario that would fail. The question "Is Narva next?" has become a persistent theme in international journalistic discourse. The answer is unequivocally 'no'. Marek Kohv sets out clearly why Estonia's security remains firm.

The lesson of 2022 was not only that the countries closest to Russia had the clearest view of the threat—but that much of Europe failed to act on those warnings. That lesson remains relevant today, writes David Cattler.

The EU is "contemplating" whether to implement a service ban on tankers transporting Russian oil. Together with Henrik Wachtmeister and Henrik Praks I've written a short text on how such a service ban can be implemented to make it bite. +

China may be losing its ability as well as a sense of immediacy to attack Taiwan. The 2028 elections open an intriguing possibility for peace, writes Urmas Hõbepappel.

Hetkel on veel vara hinnata Iraani sõja pikaajalist strateegilist mõju Ukrainale ja Venemaale, ent Iraani sõja vahetud tagajärjed paistavad Ukraina jaoks pigem kahjulikud, kirjutab Kristi Raik RKK uudiskirjas. @kristiraik.bsky.social @icds-tallinn.bsky.social

Bookmark the repository for the NB8 Institute Series www.ui.se/english/news... Also published at icds.ee/en/nb8-serie... @icds-tallinn.bsky.social #NB8 #estonia #latvia #lithuania #finland #sweden #denmark #norway #iceland

A full maritime services ban could cut Russian oil revenues by raising transport costs and deepening sales discounts. But it may also bring side effects that must be planned for, write Henrik Wachtmeister, Daniel Spiro and Henrik Praks. #NB8briefs @danielspiro.bsky.social @uisweden.bsky.social

Iraan ei pea merel ülemvõimu saavutama, vaid looma piisavalt ebakindlust, et laevaomanikud ja kindlustusfirmad väldiksid piirkonda. Iraani doktriin on suuresti kujunenud 1980. aastate Iraani-Iraagi sõja kogemuste põhjal, kirjutab Marek Kohv.

Russia continues to benefit financially despite exporting about 20% less energy commodities than it did in 2022. While less dependent on oil and gas than many petrostates, energy trade remains the backbone of the Russian economy, writes Veli-Pekka Tynkkynen. @vptynkkynen.bsky.social

When it comes to national defence policy, should we be doing more as individuals? In the final commentary from our #InternationalWomensDay series, Merili Arjakas argues that in the 'age of unpeace', European citizens need to increase their crisis preparedness. www.ceps.eu/with-europea...

In this piece for @iai.tv, I argue that agency of smaller states matters especially in times of rupture. Without their own determined agency, Estonia, Finland, or Ukraine would never have emerged as independent states and would not have survived against all odds. iai.tv/articles/sma...

Sõja ajal tähendavad unistused vastupanu. Unistamine on keeldumine alistuda hirmule ja vastuhakk vaenlase tahtele. Dmitri Teperiki ja Tetiana Fedosiuki intervjuu ühiskonna vastupidavuse ekspertide dr Fahmy Hanna ja Oksana Zbitnjevaga.

Western efforts to curb Russia’s economic and technological capacity remain incomplete. Weak sanctions enforcement limits their impact. Hydrocarbon revenues underpin Russia’s economic resilience and its ability to finance the war, writes Veli-Pekka Tynkkynen. @vptynkkynen.bsky.social

Germany’s pivot to the Indo-Pacific is about more than de-risking from China. It is also tied to deterring Russia and strengthening Europe’s security posture. Berlin’s interests in the region are increasingly interconnected, writes Prannavan Surendran.

Inimkontrolli kaotamine otsuste üle ning elu ja surma küsimuste delegeerimine masinale on miski, mida paljud riigid ei sooviks näha. RKK teadusjuht Tomas Jermalavičius selgitab, kuidas ja mil määral kasutatakse tänapäeva sõjas tehisintellekti. #DELFI

Ukraina vasturünnakud on olnud aasta algusest saati edukad, olles tagasi võitnud pea 300 km² territooriumi. Ukraina on hästi vastu pidanud ja eeldatavasti suudab Vene üksuseid ka järgnevatel kuudel tagasi hoida, kirjutab RKK uudiskirjas Marek Kohv. @icds-tallinn.bsky.social

Sino-Russian emotional resonance is neither secure nor stable, but an emotional battleground requiring constant refurbishment. Urmas Hõbepappel examines how Chinese online narratives frame Russia and its war in Ukraine.

Europe must treat digital interference as an existential threat to democracy, not merely a platform management issue. The past decade shows elections are vulnerable periods when domestic and foreign actors leverage their resources, writes Thiemo Feldmann.

While ongoing developments in Iran will affect Tehran’s relations with its main strategic partners to its north and east, implications for Sino-Russian relations can also be drawn, writes Toomas Hanso.

Until the morning of 28 February, the Kremlin assumed that under Donald Trump the US would confine its interests to the Western Hemisphere. A joint US-Israeli military operation upended that calculation, writes Igor Gretskiy.

Read the paper we wrote with July Decarpentrie for @icds-tallinn.bsky.social on the key points of the French president’s speech on nuclear deterrence ⤵️

On the basis that growing threats and uncertainty require a more autonomous European defence, Macron has offered partners a small step towards European-based nuclear deterrence, write Marianne Paire and July Decarpentrie. @marpaire.bsky.social

USA administratsiooni hinnangul kestab sõda Iraanis veel vähemalt 4-5 nädalat, aga võibolla ka kauem. Eeldatakse, et USA kaitseväelasi hukkub veel, märgib RKK/ICDS uudiskirjas Helga Kalm. ⬇️

Euroopa seisab keerulise valiku ees, kas toetada oma suurimat liitlast operatsioonis, mis on vastuolus Euroopa põhimõtetega, või jätta toetus andmata ja riskida omaenda otsese julgeolekutagatisega. @kristiraik.bsky.social 📺 ETV "Esimene stuudio": www.err.ee/1609956992/r...

#Blog If America Wants KFOR Out, the EU Must Be Ready to Step In Tony Lawrence @icds-tallinn.bsky.social Ending #KFOR would deepen doubts about U.S. reliability & the EU would have to take over to maintain regional stability & prove its own security commitments Read here tinyurl.com/4rpbwc2c

#REUNIR Panel at the @ceps.eu Ideas Lab! On March 2, 50+ policymakers, diplomats and experts gathered for a high-level debate on Europe’s security architecture and the future of #EUenlargement 🌐 Read the news on our website tinyurl.com/4wkfwykp @horizoneu.bsky.social @stevenblockmans.bsky.social

📺 Täna kell 21.40 analüüsib RKK direktor Kristi Raik viimaseid välispoliitilisi arenguid Eesti Televisiooni saates "Esimene stuudio". ➡️ www.err.ee/1609956674/k... #ERR @kristiraik.bsky.social @icds-tallinn.bsky.social

This week The Power Vertical Podcast marks four years of Russia's war against Ukraine. I speak with the always insightful James Sherr & Serhiy Kudelia about what we have learned and what happens next. www.powervertical.org/2026/02/27/f...

Eilses rekordpikas aastakõnes peatus USA president Donald Trump välispoliitikal alles kõne lõpus, rõhutades oma saavutusi rahusobitajana ja väljendades lootust, et rahu Ukraina ja Venemaa vahel saab olema tema üheksas edulugu. ⬇️ RKK uudiskiri: Helga Kalm ja Trumpi kõne.

As Russia's full-scale war enters its fifth year, and Ukraine keeps on fighting for their sovereignty, we should keep in mind that it’s not only Ukraine that is at stake. #StandWithUkraine 📸 Kaitsevägi