Fears that Donald Trump would upset a carefully choreographed event were not realised, though European allies and Canada must have held their breath. The next challenge is ensuring NATO develops the political, military and institutional arrangements that a genuinely Europeanised Alliance will need.

European Allies have strengthened their position through substantial investment in defence and security. The NATO summit in Ankara showcased an alliance in transition, writes Tony Lawrence.

🛡️Defence Spending: Who Is Doing What? July 2026 By Felix Gasper – @icds-tallinn.bsky.social icds.ee/en/defence-s...

👋 ICDS is pleased to welcome Kristen Davis as a new Non-Resident Research Fellow. She is a strategist working at the intersection of AI, emerging technologies, and geopolitics, focusing on strategic foresight and digital sovereignty. She will also contribute to the Tallinn Digital Summit.

Parts of the former Soviet Union are only now starting to critically engage with their own history. They only now realise that almost everything they learned about the history of their own peoples was part of imperial construction and agenda. @laurimalksoo.bsky.social on russia’s imperial worldview.

NATO Allies are on their way to the new spending targets, but financial and political challenges remain. Although the Allies have nine years to fulfil the targets, Russia could be ready to challenge NATO militarily long before 2035, writes Felix Gasper.

Russia wants to be seen as capable enough to project influence across the entire African continent. Frankly speaking it does not have the resources. However, despite the war in Ukraine, since 2022 Russia made a lot of progress. @ivanklyszcz.com with all the details ridl.io/russia-in-af...

Russia's root problem stems not from Putin's personality or the system of governance he created, but from Moscow's enduring view of other nations, other peoples, and even the agreements it signs. Lennart Meri Lecture by Lauri Mälksoo. #LennartMeriConference

Venemaa probleemide algpõhjus pole ei Putini isiksus ega tema loodud valitsemissüsteem, vaid viis, kuidas Moskva näeb teisi riike, rahvaid ja iseenda sõlmitud kokkuleppeid. ⬇️ Lauri Mälksoo Lennart Meri loeng. @laurimalksoo.bsky.social #LennartMeriConference

🛡️Today, leaders are meeting at the #NATO Summit in Ankara 🇹🇷 to discuss how to boost investment in transatlantic security. To remind us of the risks Europe needs to overcome, (re)watch this panel discussion from the #IrishPPC 👉 youtu.be/7lVEBNSwlEU @diis.dk @icds-tallinn.bsky.social

🇪🇺 Is "associate membership" a stepping stone or a stumbling block for 🇺🇦's EU future? A new analysis by @stevenblockmans.bsky.social & Michael Emerson cuts through a debate sparked by Chancellor Merz's recent letter to EU leadership Read here: tinyurl.com/mryucy6a @horizoneu.bsky.social @ceps.eu

𝐑𝐞𝐭𝐢𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐄𝐚𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐧 𝐏𝐚𝐫𝐭𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐡𝐢𝐩: 𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐞𝐬 𝐍𝐞𝐱𝐭? According to @stevenblockmans.bsky.social, it has become an increasingly outdated framework to structure the EU’s relations with 6 neighboring states whose paths have diverged since 2022 Read here: tinyurl.com/3347kame @horizoneu.bsky.social

Idatiiva riikidele on ilmselge, et NATO vajab tulevikus Ukrainat vähemalt partnerina, eelistatavalt liikmena, et tagada tugev kaitse ja heidutus Venemaa suunal. Üks Ankara tippkohtumise peamisi ootusi on, et NATO kinnitaks oma jätkuvat toetust Ukrainale. @kristiraik.bsky.social

Allies cannot expect to bridge deep fissures in Ankara. Instead, the Summit will focus on three areas where they should be able to demonstrate progress, resolve, and unity. #NATOsummit is expected to centre on defence investment, the defence industry, and support for Ukraine, writes Tony Lawrence.

The Ankara Summit is going to be an implementation summit. It is about implementing the vision of a stronger Europe and a stronger NATO. ▶️ A short interview with Tony Lawrence and @kristiraik.bsky.social ahead of the #NATOsummit.

Homme algaval NATO tippkohtumisel keskendutakse peamiselt kolmele teemale, mille kaudu soovitakse rõhutada edu, kindlameelsust ja ühtsust. Samas ei oodata, et liitlased leiaksid Ankaras lahenduse sügavamatele erimeelsustele, kirjutab Tony Lawrence. @icds-tallinn.bsky.social

🚨Podcast alert 𝐈𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐄𝐔 𝐑𝐞𝐚𝐝𝐲 𝐭𝐨 𝐅𝐚𝐜𝐞 𝐍𝐞𝐰 𝐆𝐞𝐨𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐂𝐡𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐞𝐧𝐠𝐞𝐬 𝐀𝐦𝐢𝐝𝐬𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐖𝐚𝐫 𝐢𝐧 𝐔𝐤𝐫𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐒𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐝 𝐓𝐫𝐮𝐦𝐩 𝐀𝐝𝐦𝐢𝐧𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧? Listen here: open.spotify.com/episode/1QB9... @horizoneu.bsky.social @icds-tallinn.bsky.social @bezbednost.bsky.social #EUSecurity #Ukraine #Trump #Geopolitics

Põhjala ja Balti riigid võivad Euroopa kaitsemudeli kujundamisel mängida olulisemat rolli, kui nende suurus lubaks eeldada. Euroopa julgeolekuarhitektuuris on toimumas suurim murrang pärast külma sõja lõppu, kirjutavad Kristi Raik ja Jarno Limnell. @kristiraik.bsky.social @hs.fi

How to Thrive in the Agentic Era? Competitiveness. Security. Efficiency. 🔻 The Tallinn Digital Summit 2026 will take place on the 5th-6th of November in Tallinn, Estonia. More: www.tds.icds.ee @kristenmichalpm.bsky.social www.youtube.com/watch?v=NgOM...

If France cannot transform its ties with Lebanon into a lasting role, it will struggle to even play a second fiddle in a region shaped by military power and strategic competition, writes Théa Delval.

Lebanon serves not only as a test of French influence in the Middle East but also as a broader measure of France's capacity to adapt its diplomatic model to a changing geopolitical environment, writes Théa Delval.

The Russian case suggests that nuclear coercion based on ambiguity may well be effective in the short term but is difficult to sustain during prolonged crises. Ambiguity is a wasting asset, writes Harald Edinger. #LennartMeriConference

Russia can only watch as its adversaries and partners alike gain influence in its ‘traditional backyard’. Moscow is losing its dominance and becoming just one of many players, writes Stefan Meister. @dgap.org @meistefan1.bsky.social #LennartMeriConference

Great article of @shaunwalker7.bsky.social (w/ insights from discuss. at the #LennartMeriConference 😏).”The key Q is whether the very public tensions around collective def. have eroded the perception in the Kremlin that an incursion into NATO would provoke an overwhelming military response”

China does not want Russia to lose the war, but there is no sign either that Beijing wants Moscow to prevail comprehensively. A limited partnership is the best characterisation of the China-Russia relationship at present, writes John Lough. #LennartMeriConference

Diskussioonid selle ümber, kas ja kes peaksid Venemaaga otse läbi rääkima hakkama ei ole hetkel viljakad. Oluline on ühisrinne ja kindel toetus ning valmistumine Ukraina ülesehitamiseks, kirjutab Marek Kohv RKK uudiskirjas. ⬇️

The EaP is an increasingly outdated framework to structure the EU’s relations with 6 states whose paths have diverged sharply since 2022. With a view to the allocation of budget in the next MFF, it should be retired and replaced by a more flexible policy fabric. @dgap.org @icds-tallinn.bsky.social

📄 WHAT ARE THE MAIN DRIVERS OF MEMBER STATES’ DEFENCE PROCUREMENT PRACTICES? THE ESTONIAN CASE By Nele Loorents, Research Fellow, @icds-tallinn.bsky.social 📍READ THE COMMENT: www.iris-france.org/what-are-the... #ARESGroup #IndustrialPolicy #Defence #Europe

The Nordic-Baltic Eight should prioritise coordination within existing multilateral formats to protect critical undersea infrastructure, write Nele Loorents (ICDS) and Eoin Micheál McNamara (FIIA). 📝⤵️ fiia.fi/en/news/the-nordic-baltic-eight-policy-brief-protecting-critical-undersea-infrastructure

📝 NEW | The Trap Closes: How Russia Suppresses Resistance in Occupied Ukraine and How We Can Still Help Read Dr Jade McGlynn's latest for @icds-tallinn.bsky.social below 👇

At a time of NATO’s Europeanisation, leadership struggles in the west carry growing consequences for states on Europe’s eastern frontier, whose security depends on the credibility of European deterrence, writes Tevian Thomson.

The collapse of the Future Combat Air System serves as a reminder that resources and defence spending alone do not automatically translate into military power, writes Tevian Thomson.

What resistance can realistically be expected from people living in the occupied territories, and how can it be supported in a way that makes it sustainable? ⬇️ Commentary by Dr Jade McGlynn. @drjademcglynn.bsky.social #LennartMeriConference

Europe’s challenge is not resources, talent, or industrial capacity—it is speed. As the battlefield evolves faster than institutions can respond, execution has become the decisive factor, writes Andriy Zagorodnyuk. @andriypzag.bsky.social #LennartMeriConference

Nikol Pashinyan's election strategy reflected declining public trust in Russia and growing support for closer ties with the EU. But he has not burned bridges with Moscow. Armenia’s state of affairs will be clearer once the campaign fever fades. @sanshiro.bsky.social

The creation of the Special Tribunal marks the beginning of a new era for Ukraine and an important milestone towards upholding international justice. The tribunal is being established rapidly and is expected to begin its work in 2027, writes Théa Delval.

Yerevan is walking a tightrope, using a window of opportunity to reformat relations with Moscow and turn Russia from an owner into a partner. Nikol Pashinyan has never advocated severing ties with Moscow and is unlikely to do so, writes Sanshiro Hosaka. @sanshiro.bsky.social

Justice should not depend on how and when the war ends. The global approach to crime against peace needs to be changed, writes Oleksandra Matviichuk. @avalaina.bsky.social #LennartMeriConference

The NB8 should prioritise a regional maritime security approach that maximises coordination and cooperation within existing multilateral formats. Critical undersea infrastructure underpins economic cooperation among the NB8 countries, write Nele Loorents and @mcnamara-eoin.bsky.social. @fiia.fi

Minilateral Alignment and Security Partnerships between the Indo-Pacific and the European/Nordic-Baltic Regions - Giulio Pugliese @pugliesasia.bsky.social - Atsuko Higashino - Nanae Baldauff - Ivan U.K. Klyszcz @ivanklyszcz.com Moderator: Elena Atanassova-Cornelis Baltic Indo-Pacific Forum 2026

We had inspiring discussions today about current geopolitical upheaval and the role of Japan-Europe cooperation at the Third Baltic Indo-Pacific Forum. Great to see old friends and meet new colleagues! Thanks to Bart Gaens and @icds-tallinn.bsky.social (ICDS) for organizing this important event.

Great-Power Rivalry in the Indo-Pacific and Middle-Power Strategies–Perspectives from Europe and Japan - Masataka Okano - Maria Castillo Fernandez - Alexandra Sakaki @sakakialexandra.bsky.social - Michael Reiterer Moderator: Bart Gaens Baltic Indo-Pacific Forum 2026 icds.ee/en/bipf-2026/

Europe and the Indo‑Pacific find themselves increasingly intertwined as great‑power rivalry intensifies. The 3rd edition of the Baltic Indo-Pacific Forum explores how Europe’s strategic outlook intersects with the Indo‑Pacific’s rapidly evolving security dynamics. @kristiraik.bsky.social #BIPF

The Baltic Indo-Pacific Forum (BIPF) 2026, organised by the Japan Chair at the ICDS, is taking place today. The BIPF is a unique forum in the Nordic-Baltic region focusing on security in the Indo-Pacific region, the role of Japan, and Asia-Europe relations. Speakers & agenda: icds.ee/en/bipf-2026/

Should deterrence fail, mines could help shape the battlefield and slow Russian advances, strengthening Europe’s ability to defend itself. Russia’s aggression has reignited a debate long thought settled in Europe, write Théa Delval and Luca Rogers.

Information operations are a key tool of Russia's aggressive foreign policy with worldwide impact, argue @ivanklyszcz.com and Kristel Potsepp in a new ICDS report examining Russia’s global foreign information manipulation and interference ecosystem.

A key lesson from Russia’s war is the enduring need for large numbers of personnel. Could volunteer defence organisations help fill that need? Tony Lawrence writes about the experience of the Baltic states. #LennartMeriConference

🚀 The Space Domain and the Defence of Europe By Alessandro Marrone – @icds-tallinn.bsky.social icds.ee/en/the-space...

First on our agenda is a panel discussion on Europe's security and defence, focusing on land, sea and cyberspace 🛡️ With @mellet.bsky.social, Margaret Stanley, Jessica Larsen, Tony Lawrence & Cian FitzGerald 🎤 Watch it here 👉 youtube.com/live/l8p9rDf... /24

"There is a growing wish to do more to respond to Russia, but it will be difficult to find a consensus on issues of proportionality. We need to develop a shared understanding of the threat & our response." - Tony Lawrence from @icds-tallinn.bsky.social 🔗 www.youtube.com/live/l8p9rDf... /26