NATO's deterrence of Russia still works, but to sustain it Europe must invest far more in its own defence. We no longer live in a world where the US sees itself as responsible for upholding global order, security structures, and shared Western values, says Kristi Raik. @kristiraik.bsky.social #ERR

ICDS wishes everyone a Merry Christmas and a peaceful holiday season, with time for reflection and renewed energy for the year ahead! ✨

Russian intelligence services push narratives reflecting their strategic culture, emphasising paranoia about international affairs, moral superiority, and portrayals of the west as irrational and aggressive — themes that echo Soviet-era propaganda. ⬇️

🌐 Roundtable on Russia’s Cyber and Disinformation Activities Last week, ICDS hosted a discussion on Russian cyber issues with Prof Kévin Limonier, Morvan Lallouet, and PhD student Olivier Royer. More: icds.ee/en/roundtabl... @marpaire.bsky.social @kevinlimonier.bsky.social @mlallouet.bsky.social

If Russia cannot rely on disabling its opponent and expects a coordinated response, it is less likely to initiate further aggression. Europe must strengthen ballistic missile defence, but the challenge is formidable. Finn-Niklas Brünner examines Russia’s threat and Europe’s defence gaps.

As the threat from Russia grows and the US pivots to the Indo-Pacific, Europe must strengthen its ability to counter ballistic-missile coercion. Targeting the archer is more effective than trying to intercept every arrow, writes Finn-Niklas Brünner.

My 2025 Russia-Africa in review for Riddle Russia: ridl.io/russia-afric...

The major threat to European security today is posed by Russia’s aggressive foreign policy, partly carried out by its intelligence services. Ivan U. K. Klyszcz & Marek Kohv explored their strategic culture to better understand Russian covert operations and how they may evolve. @ivanklyszcz.com

Ukraina on enneolematult tugeva surve all, et nõustuda paljuski Venemaa poolt ette kirjutatud rahutingimustega. On selge, et need ei tooks Euroopasse kestlikku ega õiglast rahu. On kaalukas nädal, kus laual ELi usutavus ja Euroopa julgeolek, kirjutab Kristi Raik. @kristiraik.bsky.social

Andriy Yermak effectively engineered a power vertical around Zelensky. Now that he is gone, whether the Presidential Office will reassert manual control over law enforcement and the judiciary depends on Zelensky’s political will, writes Sanshiro Hosaka. @sanshiro.bsky.social

ICDS was pleased to host a roundtable with Brian Whitmore, Assistant Professor at UT Arlington, Non-Resident Senior Fellow at Atlantic Council, and host of the @powervertical.bsky.social podcast. Discussions centred on his upcoming report "Russian Illusions: How the West Lost the Post-Cold War".

On 10 December, @icds-tallinn.bsky.social within the #REUNIR project, hosted a 2 part event dedicated to the future of EU enlargement, with a focus on Western Balkans & the role of bilateral disputes in the accession process @horizoneu.bsky.social Read more: reunir-horizon.eu/two-part-reu...

"Hybrid and sabotage operations thrive because they exploit and capitalise on ambiguity, surprise, and the seams between civilian and military domains." New report by Ivan U. Kłyszcz and Marek Kohv examines the legacy and future of Russian covert ops. @ivanklyszcz.com

If Germany is to meet its combat-readiness targets by 2029 and transform the Bundeswehr into Europe’s strongest army by 2035, consensus and swift decisions are essential, write Felix Gasper and Prannavan Surendran.

Germany has pledged to make the Bundeswehr the strongest conventional army in Europe. Felix Gasper and Prannavan Surendran take a look at what Germany’s game plan has been so far and how the country is implementing the new military service model.

While the US remains an indispensable ally, the common ground holding the alliance together has grown thin. For Estonian foreign policy, this marks the most challenging period since the restoration of independence, writes Kristi Raik. @kristiraik.bsky.social @diplomaatia.bsky.social

𝐖𝐞𝐛𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐫: 𝐂𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐔𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐰𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐫𝐚𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐒𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐏𝐫𝐨𝐭𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐢𝐧 𝐉𝐚𝐩𝐚𝐧 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐍𝐨𝐫𝐝𝐢𝐜-𝐁𝐚𝐥𝐭𝐢𝐜 𝐑𝐞𝐠𝐢𝐨𝐧: 𝐒𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐞𝐝 𝐂𝐡𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐞𝐧𝐠𝐞𝐬, 𝐉𝐨𝐢𝐧𝐭 𝐋𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐨𝐧𝐬 ICDS hosted a virtual panel discussion with Estonian and Japanese experts on the strategies and techniques used by revisionist actors. ⬇️

Värske julgeolekustrateegia valguses peavad eurooplased küsima, kas Ameerika Ühendriikide ametnikega ühe laua taga istudes kohtutakse liitlaste või vastaspoolega. USA julgeolekustrateegiast paistab selge kavatsus mõjutada Euroopa sisepoliitikat, kirjutab Tauno Tõhk. @toehk.bsky.social

Venemaa ambitsioonid ei vaibu pelgalt seetõttu, et välised tegurid eelistavad stabiilsust. Tõhus heidutus nõuab realismi, mitte oletusi, kirjutab endine NATO abipeasekretär David Cattler @icds-tallinn.bsky.social uudiskirjas.

"The document will be read in Washington as pragmatic. In Europe, it lands as a strategic inflexion point." The new US National Security Strategy marks a decisive shift in Washington’s approach to Europe, writes David Cattler.

USA uus julgeolekustrateegia kinnitab, et transatlantilised suhted on olemuslikult muutunud ja allianssi kooshoidev ühisosa on jäänud õhukeseks. Eesti välispoliitikal on käes kõige keerulisem aeg peale taasiseseisvumist, kirjutab @kristiraik.bsky.social.

Any erosion of the US and NATO military posture that might result from the #GPR (Global Posture Review), from destroyers in Rota to garrisons in Germany and rotational troops in the Baltics, serves as a gift to Russia, writes Will McMillan.

"If Europe fails to replace US assistance, and if Europe leaves Ukraine to bleed economically and militarily, Moscow will consider its view of a weak Europe as vindicated." ⬇️ New @dgap.org Policy Brief by Karl-Heinz Kamp, @kristiraik.bsky.social, and Carolina Vendil Pallin.

Yesterday, Kristi Raik moderated a discussion by the Government Office and the Swedish Psychological Defence Agency on Estonia’s international reputation and security. @edwardlucas.bsky.social, Magnus Hjort, Anna Rudels and Minna-Liina Lind discussed psychological defence and strategic narratives.

ICDS Seminar on Protecting Critical Maritime Infrastructure Lessons Learned: Adapting National Legislations and Defining the Areas of Responsibility - Brig Gen Lenny Hazelbag - Ernest Wiersma - Priit Saar - Dr Alexander Lott Moderated by Helga Kalm

Today, International Centre for Defence and Security (ICDS) and Embassy of the Netherlands in Estonia are hosting a seminar: "Protecting Critical Maritime Infrastructure from Hybrid Threats: Perspectives of the Baltic Sea and the North Sea". @kristiraik.bsky.social

Brussels’ idea for an EU-level intelligence “cell” makes headlines but does not offer solutions. Europe’s problem isn’t missing structures—it’s missing synthesis, integration, and trust. New commentary by our non-resident fellow David Cattler 👇 icds.ee/en/the-eus-i...

"The ‘war’ component in the ‘hybrid war’ has become more pronounced" - this and other insights from a fascinating ICDS and @globsec.bsky.social seminar "Hired Hands of Hybrid War: How Crime and Coercion Serve the Kremlin" today 👇 icds.ee/en/icds-hybr...

Ukraine is facing one of its most perilous moments since the Russian full-scale invasion. On The Power Vertical Podcast this week, I break it down with the always insightful Mike Carpenter and James Sherr www.powervertical.org/2025/11/21/u....

The Kremlin has taken a proactive approach to the Red Sea region to further its aggressive foreign policy, undermine what it perceives are western interests, and facilitate its energy trade through the Suez Canal. ⬇️ New report by @ivanklyszcz.com

Rindejoont Ukrainas määrab umbes 20 km sügavune tapmistsoon, kus otsustavas rollis on droonid ja suurtükituli. Suur osa kaotustest on droonirünnakute tagajärg. Kui varem oli ülekaal Ukrainal, siis nüüd on jõud enam-vähem tasakaalus, kirjutab Marek Kohv RKK nädalakirjas. @icds-tallinn.bsky.social

Yet another Witkoff’s peace plan rests entirely on Russian ultimatums and would leave Ukraine nearly defenceless against a renewed Russian invasion. The US president continues to pursue a quick deal at any price, writes Igor Gretskiy.

Central Asian countries are increasingly pursuing multi-vector foreign policies and leveraging overlapping spheres of influence to maximise their agency and autonomy. The EU has a chance to build mutually beneficial partnerships, write Sanshiro Hosaka and Toomas Hanso. @sanshiro.bsky.social

Kuna normidel põhinev liberaalne kord on hakanud murenema ning demokraatia on rünnaku all isegi USA-s, mis seni oli vaba maailma juhtriik, siis läheb Põhjamaade ja Balti riikide julgeolekumurede lahendamiseks tarvis realistlikumaid meetodeid, kirjutab Kristi Raik. @kristiraik.bsky.social

Does Ukraine's future hinge on political change in Russia, as Vladimir Kara-Murza suggests? Or is it Russia's fate that will be determined by the outcome of the war in Ukraine? James Sherr's lecture to the National Academy of the SBU.

Dark trends in European security and the global order require small states in the Nordic-Baltic region to adapt, strike a new balance between realism and idealism, and join forces to defend their interests and values, writes Kristi Raik. @kristiraik.bsky.social

"To those who say the collapse of Putinism will produce a democratic Russia, we should ask: Why will you succeed today when you failed in the past?" The greatest influence on Russia’s future will be the outcome of the war in Ukraine. James Sherr's lecture to the National Academy of the SBU

Yesterday, @sanshiro.bsky.social and Toomas Hanso presented their report "Between Giants: Central Asia Balancing China, Russia, and the Rest" — followed by a discussion with Eka Metreveli and Amb Alex Petriashvili, with Helga Kalm leading the conversation. More: icds.ee/en/presentat...

Infosõda ei ole tulevikuoht, vaid praeguse aja otsustav lahinguväli. Sõja võitmiseks peab lääs lõpetama kaitses mängimise ja haarama initsiatiivi, kirjutab Pekka Kallioniemi RKK nädalakirjas. @icds-tallinn.bsky.social

"The information war will be won not only by defending our values, but by strategically projecting them into contested information environments." The west must stop playing defence to avoid losing the information war, writes Pekka Kallioniemi. @vatniksoup.bsky.social

Beijing's growing compute capacity strengthens its hand in the global AI race — and the west should take note. Toomas Hanso examines Eastern Data Western Compute (EDWC), its roots, role in China’s AI policy, and what it means for its global ambitions.

⬇️ Check out the new report “Europe-Russia: Balance of Power” by Ifri, which assesses the evolving power balance between Europe and Russia and highlights the challenges Europe must address by 2030. ICDS was glad to help. @kristiraik.bsky.social @ivanklyszcz.com

Takaichi’s summit with the US President was widely considered as a first major foreign policy trial for the new Prime Minister—a test she mastered successfully, writes Prannavan Surendran.

Resilience isn’t a destination. It’s a muscle you exercise every day. Too often, resilience is treated as crisis management rather than a standing posture, writes David Cattler.

Kõigile tuttavat tuumaseent, mis tekib siis, kui hiiglasliku plahvatuse tõttu üles paisatud rusud tõusevad atmosfääri ülemise piirini ja seejärel laiali vajuvad, ei ole nähtud juba 45 aastat. Tony Lawrence kirjutab RKK uudiskirjas tuumakatsetustest. @icds-tallinn.bsky.social

Estonia’s story shows that democracies can adapt faster than they believe, if they treat resilience not as an emergency measure but as second nature, writes David Cattler.

Venemaa suurim relv on paratamatuse illusioon – usk, et nad suudavad lõputult kannatada ja ohverdada inimelusid oma eesmärkide nimel. See relv tuleb murda, leiab Postimehe intervjuus RKK koosseisuväline teadur David Cattler. @icds-tallinn.bsky.social

Europe's struggles in the Sahel reveal deep challenges: weak local buy-in, lack of shared identity, and clashing interests between international actors and Sahelian elites. Eric Hall argues Europe must recalibrate its strategy around realistic goals.

Today, ICDS had the honour of hosting Taiwan's Vice Minister of Defense, Mr Alex Po. The seminar compared how Estonia and Taiwan respond to repeated airspace violations and strengthen their airspace sovereignty. @kristiraik.bsky.social

How can Europe adapt in the Central Sahel? After coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, Russia’s Africa Corps is filling the void. Europe’s role must shift to realistic, limited, and strategic engagement in a multipolar Sahel, writes Eric Hall.