Finland avoided full subjugation to Moscow thanks to a combination of the broader geopolitical context and its own defense preparedness—not by being friendly toward the Soviets.

"It is Europe’s weakness & hesitation that encourage Russia and allow Putin to believe that he can achieve a better outcome by continuing the war. Europeans must define their long-term commitments so that Russia’s calculation changes & continuation of war no longer pays off." @kristiraik.bsky.social

Finland’s history offers a warning, not a model. Kristi Raik explains how Ukraine differs from Finland – and why trading land for peace is unlikely to bring lasting stability. @foreignpolicy.com @kristiraik.bsky.social

Thank you for great discussions @bruegel.org! Much remains to be done to strengthen European defence.

Euroopa vajab lähinädalatel kiiret edu kolme hiiglasliku ülesandega, märgib RKK direktor Kristi Raik: - Ukraina positsiooni tugevdamine - sõja hinna kasvatamine Venemaale - Trumpi veenmine, et Putini nõudmiste järgimine oleks hävituslik Euroopale ja häbiväärne USA-le. @kristiraik.bsky.social

This piece describes one of the key differences between Putin and Trump: Putin lies, while knowing exactly the facts and distorting them in a carefully calculated way (e.g. "Russia wants peace" - sure, if all its impossible demands are met). 1/ www.ft.com/content/a701...

Europe has a vital interest in Ukraine's sovereignty and in defending against the Russian threat. Trump must be convinced that pressuring for a bad deal won’t bring peace but will increase the risk of a larger war, writes @kristiraik.bsky.social. ➡️ ERR: news.err.ee/1609767261/k...

Donald Trumpi ja Vladimir Putini planeeritava kohtumise eel seisab Euroopa silmitsi olukorraga, kus kaks suurriiki hakkavad läbi rääkima mitte ainult Ukraina, vaid tõenäoliselt ka laiemalt Euroopa julgeoleku tuleviku üle, kirjutab @kristiraik.bsky.social ERRi portaalis. www.err.ee/1609766826/k...

Venemaa jaoks on Läänemeri kahtlemata strateegiliselt ülimalt oluline. Pilt on aga viimase 35 aastaga radikaalselt muutunud. Venemaa mõju Läänemere regioonis on nõrgem kui eelneva 300 a jooksul. @kristiraik.bsky.social 🎦 #Arvamusfestival "Kilud vs karud" ülekanne: www.youtube.com/watch?v=54cb...

The EU’s credibility depends on its ability to raise the cost of war for Russia & secure a European future for Ukraine — ensuring Russia cannot win its brutal war of aggression. To defend itself, Europe needs Ukraine on its side, writes @kristiraik.bsky.social in a commentary for @tepsa.bsky.social

On my usual summer sailing trip, this time including Naissaar, Tallinn, Porkkala, Örö. Traces of past presence of Soviet/Russian army in all of them, with tragic memories behind idyllic scenes. Can't help thinking when sailing freely around the Baltic Sea that freedom is really worth defending.

Europe has become divided between countries that think the NATO Hague commitment to spend 5% (or rather, 3,5%) on defence was about pleasing Trump and therefore don’t want to do it, and countries that believe it is in their own interest to spend 5% (or at least 3,5) and therefore take it seriously.

Kaitsekulude tõstmine on vajalik Euroopa enda julgeoleku, mitte Trumpile meeldimise pärast. Töö selle nimel, et kõik Euroopa NATO riigid mõistaksid ühtemoodi, miks ja kui palju on vaja kaitseks panustada, jätkub pärast tippkohtumist. @kristiraik.bsky.social 📺 ERR: www.err.ee/1609729008/r...

📣 ICDS is delighted to be part of the NATO Public Forum as an institutional partner during next week’s NATO Summit in The Hague. More information about the Forum (and registration to attend online) 👇 #NATOsummit #WeAreNATO @kristiraik.bsky.social

How to strenghten the 🇪🇺 pillar of #NATO? In their #PolicyBrief, @kristiraik.bsky.social & Marcin Terlikowski give recommendations on 3⃣ different levels: 1⃣ Strategic: More than ever, 🇪🇺 allies need a common strategic approach to the 🇺🇸 – based on the understanding that 🇷🇺 poses a ... /1

NATO ajaloos on ennegi ette tulnud kriise, kuid mitte selliseid, mida transatlantilised suhted praegu üle elavad. Eurooplastel tuleb karmis julgeolekukeskkonnas end kokku võtta, kirjutab @kristiraik.bsky.social RKK uudiskirjas. @icds-tallinn.bsky.social Lisaks nädalakirjas ⤵

A good overview of Europe’s agony in managing the transatlantic relationship. But I find the division to “countries that support so-called strategic autonomy” and “those who believe the transatlantic relationship must be defended at all costs” really problematic - why?👇 www.ft.com/content/e335...

See also the programme of the Baltic Indo-Pacific Forum 2025 organized by the Japan Chair at the International Centre for Defence and Security (ICDS) on 11 June in Tallinn: icds.ee/en/bipf-2025/

Russia’s war against Ukraine and the erosion of the rules-based international order have motivated a closer security partnership between Estonia and Japan. A commentary by @kristiraik.bsky.social

💬 “Major war is raging on the continent for the 4th consecutive year and we, Europeans, together with our allies & partners, have so far failed to give sufficient support to the brave Ukrainians” — @kristiraik.bsky.social, Director of the ICDS 🔹 We Shall Go Forward #LennartMeriConference

"Here we are in 2025 and geopolitics is back with a vengeance, as is the EU #enlargement file [...] completing the enlargement process successfully is a security and geopolitical necessity" - @kristiraik.bsky.social, Director of @icds-tallinn.bsky.social & TEPSA Board Member, at the #DanishPPC /28

Major war is raging on the continent for the 4th consecutive year and we, Europeans, together with our allies and partners, have so far failed to give sufficient support to the brave Ukrainians. — @kristiraik.bsky.social, Director of @icds-tallinn.bsky.social Opening words of #LennartMeriConference

It’s time for Europe to act and rapidly increase defence spending, says @kristiraik.bsky.social at the @suomenpankki.fi @bruegel.bsky.social #EuropeDay panel, led by @jzettelmeyer.bsky.social. ”We cannot afford to neglect our security. The fundament of our wellfare would also erode.”

Our #EuropeDay continues with a superb panel dialogue about economic resilience. @jzettelmeyer.bsky.social, @kristiraik.bsky.social, @heathergrabbe.bsky.social, @iikkakorhonen.bsky.social and Leena Mörttinen discuss how to best handle the current multi-crisis. @suomenpankki.fi @bruegel.bsky.social

While the US-Ukraine mineral deal provides no security guarantees, it deepens Washington’s ties with Kyiv—making full disengagement unlikely. By not rushing peace, the US is putting Russia under pressure, notes @kristiraik.bsky.social. ➡️ news.err.ee/1609684046/i...

Isegi kui enamik Euroopa riike ei nõustu iial Krimmi kuuluvust Venemaale de jure tunnustama, annab USA rahuplaan tugeva hoobi põhimõttele, et piire ei muudeta jõuga, kirjutab @kristiraik.bsky.social @icds-tallinn.bsky.social uudiskirjas.

US administration would be wise to learn from the EU's past experience (I'm not expecting they will) of offering economic benefits to Russia in the hope of solving strategic disagreements. Russia won't give up its geopolitical goals in exchange for economic partnership with US (or Europe).

There is no way of denying the rapid decay of the transatlantic alliance. Yet Russia is still a long-term threat for Europe, and the US remains an indispensable ally in countering this threat. Here's my take for @ipq.bsky.social on how to manage the dependence ip-quarterly.com/en/case-nord...

Europe’s most important task—and biggest dilemma—is trying to keep the US engaged in European defense, while also preparing for its possible abandonment. By sticking together, the Nordic-Baltic states are leading the way. New from @kristiraik.bsky.social: ip-quarterly.com/en/case-nord...

The second #FIIAForum2025 panel focused on the prospects for European and Northern European security. @kristiraik.bsky.social, @haukkala.bsky.social, Mike Winnerstig, @sinikukka.bsky.social and @linnainmaki.bsky.social addressed the way forward amidst great power competition and Trump’s presidency.

During Trump’s first term, it was Japan’s PM Abe who practiced golf diplomacy with him. Now Finland’s President Stubb does the same. It's easy to mock flattery of Trump, but Europe needs to try every possible way to get its messages to the US. Europe’s dependence on the US won’t end anytime soon. 1/

Since Europeans are not ready to defend themselves without US engagement, it would be suicidal to do anything that might encourage or precipitate US departure. Yet not preparing for such an eventuality would be irresponsible and short-sighted, writes Kristi Raik. @kristiraik.bsky.social

It was an honour to host President Sauli Niinistö, whose message for Europe is chrystal clear: Europe needs to be strong in order to avoid war.

Teise riigi liidri alandamine nõrgestab USA-d. See mõjutab Trumpi mainet ja usutavust globaalse liidrina, eelkõige Euroopas. Trumpi meelitamine muutub riigijuhtidele alandavaks ja nähakse, et temaga suhete hoidmine ei too soovitud tulemust. @kristiraik.bsky.social #EestiPäevaleht

Oleme harjunud USA-ga kui liitlasega, kellele lähevad korda ühised väärtused ja rahvusvahelised institutsioonid, pikaajalised stabiilsed liitlassuhted. Seda kõike enam ei ole. @kristiraik.bsky.social #Delfi USA välispoliitikas on toimunud põhjapanevad muudatused:

Enam ei ole küsimus selles, kas suudame ära hoida mõjusfääride poliitika tagasitulekut. See on juba kohal. Kuid veel ei ole selge, mida see meie jaoks tähendab, kirjutab @kristiraik.bsky.social. Euroopal on, mida kaitsta. Nüüd on aeg tegutseda. #Postimees

Grim collection of views on the transatlantic relationship. My take: Europe needs real military capability and of course political will, too, to stop Russian aggression. If it doesn’t get its act together, its fate may be decided by other, darker forces. carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...

Visited Anti-Aircraft Museum in Tuusula, Finland, yesterday (indeed, such a museum exists, not far from Hki-Vantaa airport). Impressive. Some of the equipment used in Finland during WWII is still used in Ukraine today. No wonder 🇫🇮 is a strong supporter of 🇺🇦

Good day for @icds-tallinn.bsky.social! Feeling grateful. Being acknowledged as a foreign policy thinker means a lot to me.

Scholz is moralizing again, but the EU is also interested in Ukraine's rare earths. We may not like it, but Europe, incl Ukraine, have to be transactional with Trump in order to defend our interests. www.politico.eu/article/olaf...

EU leaders have taken a cautious approach to threats by Donald Trump. Is it the right tactic? My report up shortly on @theworld.org f/t @aranchagonzalez.bsky.social @jfkirkegaard.bsky.social @bruegel.bsky.social @kristiraik.bsky.social @icds-tallinn.bsky.social Tune in 👉 theworld.org

While European leaders are meeting in Brussels to discuss defence, there is war going on in Europe. The unfortunate reality is that Europeans are not able to bring this war to a sustainable end without the U.S. Not for the time being. 1/2

Will Donald Trump divide and rule a Europe that is too weak to stand on its own feet? My take in @foreignpolicy.com foreignpolicy.com/2025/01/30/e...

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Azerbaijan’s recapture of Nagorno-Karabakh have resulted in varied manifestations of Russian influence across the South Caucasus, differing by both country and domain. A new report by @sanshiro.bsky.social delves into the issue and offers policy recommendations:

Will Donald Trump divide and rule a Europe that is too weak to stand on its own feet? My take in @foreignpolicy.com foreignpolicy.com/2025/01/30/e...

Donald Trump tahab lõpetada sõda, kuid rahu kindlustamise soovib ta jätta eurooplaste kanda. Euroopa pole veel mõistnud, et tugeva enda panuseta ei tule Ukrainas rahu, mis tagaks suveräänse Ukraina riigi säilimise, kirjutab @kristiraik.bsky.social RKK/ICDS nädalakirjas. @icds-tallinn.bsky.social

Pressure is building up on Russia, from both US and EU, to end the war. Discussions on the terms of peace continue. Yet the first task is to stop Russia from advancing on the front. Without making Ukraine militarily stronger, short- and long-term, the peace models remain theoretical.

Just wondering, who wants us to believe that a series of accidents damaged cables and pipelines under the Baltic Sea? Anonymous officials from three countries keen to avoid escalation? I can recall many past instances of the ”no evidence it was Russia” argument from various places.

My short take on the security year 2025: what doesn't kill you makes you stronger. Hoping that Trump's threats will spur Europeans into serious action to prevent a wider war in Europe. news.err.ee/1609575451/k...

2025 starts in a highly volatile and unpredictable international environment. We think tankers are often asked to predict what’s to come. Will the war in Ukraine end? Will Donald Trump abandon NATO? Will China make an effort to subsume Taiwan? Will there be more wars and conflicts in the world? 1/