What would happen if Iran had a regime change and sanctions against it were lifted? Well, Iran’s GDP would skyrocket (up to +80% in the long run), but even the EU’s GDP could increase 0.3–0.4%. files.insm.de/uploads/2026...

Call for papers 12th Workshop on Banking and Institutions August 17–18 in Helsinki KEYNOTE SPEAKER: José-Luis Peydró (LUISS and EIEF) Deadline for submissions March 15! @bofit.suomenpankki.fi @suomenpankki.fi www.suomenpankki.fi/en/news-and-...

Russian labor market is cooling (red: job openings - gray resumes).

Wine Production and Inventory in the U.S., 2012–2024. The inventory-to-production ratio has been rising for more than a decade, reaching 1.68 at the end of 2024. (Data for 2025 are not yet available).

Winds of change, Zeitenwende, etc: Europe has changed. Poll finds clear majorities for increasing defence spending and a European nuclear deterrent. Source ecfr.eu/publication/...

"..alustavan arvion mukaan #Venäjä n BKT kasvoi prosentin vuonna 2025. Kotimaisen kysynnän kasvu hidastui laaja-alaisesti. Kotitalouksien kulutus kasvoi noin 3 %. Kasvu jäi hieman hitaammaksi kuin koronapandemiaa edeltävinä vuosina 2017–2019. Myös julkisen sektorin kulutuksen kasvu hidastui."

India backs $40 billion military upgrade with more Rafale fighters, Boeing P-8Is reut.rs/4rMOwQP

Call for papers 12th Workshop on Banking and Institutions August 17–18 in Helsinki KEYNOTE SPEAKER: José-Luis Peydró (LUISS and EIEF) Deadline for submissions March 15! @bofit.suomenpankki.fi @suomenpankki.fi www.suomenpankki.fi/en/news-and-...

⌛Final reminder! #CallForPapers - 8th Summer #Conference on Financial Intermediation and Corporate Finance Submit by 6PM GMT, 15 February 2026. cepr.org/events/8th-s... #EconSky #EconConf

The long-planned project will create about 350 jobs and offers Europe’s only production chain of its kind, reducing reliance on Chinese imports.

Wake-up presentation by Michael Kofmann on the second day of the Russia Seminar 2026 at the Finnish National Defence University maanpuolustuskorkeakoulu.fi/en/russia-se...

Breakdown of today's vote in the EP on the Ukraine loan facility with a new type of graph by member state. This shows neatly the huge support in the Nordics and Baltics, the low one in France (due to the RN) and the stark exception of Hungary, where even the opposition Tisza Party voted against.

Russia moves to block WhatsApp in messaging app crackdown

What would happen if Iran had a regime change and sanctions against it were lifted? Well, Iran’s GDP would skyrocket (up to +80% in the long run), but even the EU’s GDP could increase 0.3–0.4%. files.insm.de/uploads/2026...

Helsinki

The bulk of additional financial and humanitarian aid is now provided through EU institutions and their mechanisms. The share of EU-level financial and humanitarian aid allocations grew from around 50 percent in 2022 to almost 90 percent in 2025 👇

🇺🇦 #UkraineSupportTracker: Europe steps up: In 2025, European military aid rose +67% & financial/humanitarian aid +59% vs. 2022–24 averages - compensating for the US withdrawal. Military aid increasingly borne by small no of countries 👉 kielinstitut.de/publications... #MSC2026

"As part of a program authorizing up to eleven ASCs under the Presidential Memorandum “Construction of #Arctic Security Cutters,” the first two vessels will be built in #Finland at Davie Defense’s sister company, Helsinki Shipyard." www.navaltoday.com/2026/02/11/u...

”..annual deficit would rise from $1.9tn this year to $3.1tn by 2036, pushing federal debt levels beyond their second world war record as soon as 2030.” ”not sustainable”🇺🇸 giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... Trump’s policies will add $1.4tn to US deficit over next decade, watchdog says

49 years ago "Mongoloid" is the debut single by American new wave band Devo, released February 1977 with "Jocko Homo" as the B-side. "Mongoloid" was later re-recorded by Devo and appeared on the album Q: Are We Not Men? A: We are Devo! #devo #newwave #history #punkrockhistory

”..number of Russian soldiers killed in action jumped to as high as 35,000 in December” ”Russia sustained around 9,000 more battlefield losses in Ukraine than it was able to replace last month” 🇺🇦🇷🇺 www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Today’s CBO report says US consumers pay 95% of tariffs. 🤡 @brendanvduke.bsky.social www.cbo.gov/system/files...

”..number of Russian soldiers killed in action jumped to as high as 35,000 in December” ”Russia sustained around 9,000 more battlefield losses in Ukraine than it was able to replace last month” 🇺🇦🇷🇺 www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Even if public debt is ~20%/GDP, with these kinds of yields debt servicing costs will rise substantially in 2026, especially since deficit can easily be 4% of GDP this year, if/when war continues….

First release of Russia's 2025 GDP, growth 1.0%. Which would mean slight acceleration of growth in 4Q2025, as 1-3Q2025 GDP growth was 0.9%. In December there was e.g. a burst of frontloading activity as VAT rate rose to 22% in January. Also 2024 growth revised to 4.9%. rosstat.gov.ru/storage/medi...

My updated list of estimates of the cost of the GOP megabill including its effects on growth including today's CBO estimate. Contrary to claims the law will produce such stupendous economic growth it will pay for itself, all independent estimates find it will cost trillions.

Parliament has approved a €90 billion Ukraine support loan package. Learn more ↓

EU/Australia Trade Talks - Agreement in sight? Australia's Trade Minister Don Farrell "will spend most of Thursday in negotiations with EU Commissioner for Trade Maroš Šefčovič and EU Commissioner for Agriculture and Food Christophe Hansen". thewest.com.au/politics/fed...

Ahead of tomorrow's informal meeting of EU leaders on competitiveness, the ECB has submitted its proposals, which include a common 'safe asset'. www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/gel...

After 4 years of war, Ukraine's agricultural sector is devastated. Restoring it is crucial for both Ukraine and the EU. At #CEPSLab2026, we will host a session exploring how Ukraine's agricultural recovery can help us to rethink development finance. Learn more: ideaslab.ceps.eu/from-mines-t...

Reports are that Trump is "privately musing about exiting the North American trade pact." Deep dive by @joshwingrovebbg.bsky.social into what we know about the upcoming USMCA review.

The US continues losing blue-collar jobs—year-on-year job losses have hit 170k as manufacturing, transportation, & mining industries lose jobs at a rapid pace while growth in construction remains low

As expected, the annual benchmark revisions sharply lowered estimates of job growth in earlier months. BLS now says we added just 181,000 jobs in 2025, down from the earlier estimate of 584,000. #NumbersDay

Correction: My graph in the post above failed to account for the full set of benchmark revisions. Corrected graph is below. (It looks remarkably similar, but it's better to get these things right.)

First release of Russia's 2025 GDP, growth 1.0%. Which would mean slight acceleration of growth in 4Q2025, as 1-3Q2025 GDP growth was 0.9%. In December there was e.g. a burst of frontloading activity as VAT rate rose to 22% in January. Also 2024 growth revised to 4.9%. rosstat.gov.ru/storage/medi...

Taiwan’s economic affairs ministry to send team to assess US rare earth deposits – Reuters: ‘with a goal to have such minerals refined on the island’

Exclusive Cold shoulder: China, EU in diplomatic stand-off ahead of Munich Beijing has frozen out the EU’s envoy & snubbed its biz lobby, EU quietly boycotting China’s envoy in return, Wang Yi is Munich-bound with no locked‑in meeting with Kallas

My colleague Sinikka Parviainen talking about regional military spending at Russia Seminar 2026 of National Defence University @bofit.suomenpankki.fi maanpuolustuskorkeakoulu.fi/en/russia-se...

Well.. okay then.

I was in this museum slightly more than a week ago! Great place. (I was a bit surprised how little those parts of Sweden that are not part of it anymore received attention, though. Most of the present-day Finland was Sweden for ~700 years! Same goes for Norway.)

WH keeps 'pumping up' payrolls for tomorrow. Here's why. Revisions could wipe out all job growth last year. Zero. zip. nada. (Note, downward revisions start in 2024, so not a simple politics story.)

Helsinki Main Guard Post

Helsinki

Still time to register! (We can't promise actual Northern Lights. They are there if they want to be.)

Once all assets are counted (stocks, foreign holdings), Japan’s net public-sector liabilities are ~65% of GDP - and have halved since 2020. Cheap domestic funding+leveraged risk assets has earned 6% of GDP per year above costs. Japan as a misunderstood balance sheet...

I’m beginning every panel I chair for the rest of my career with this frontal attack…

Useful research. cepr.org/voxeu/column...

In return for health aid, African countries are expected to buy American products, grant America access to their health data and align policies to the Trump administration’s health agenda

Hong Kong newspaper founder Jimmy Lai, a leading figure in the city’s pro-democracy movement and an ardent critic of the Chinese Communist Party, was sentenced to 20 years in prison after being found guilty of sedition and collusion with foreign forces. https://wapo.st/4bLfPGy