There is no dispute that Donald Trump has an outsized effect on commodity prices. This will continue in 2026, but the winners and losers may shift. Another question is what happens if Trump realises the commitments by countries to buy US commodities are unachievable. www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

Sometimes the market gets comfortable with a paradigm, even though it is changing. The role of China in #crude oil markets is just such a shift, as the world’s biggest importer transitions from sustained growth to using imports and inventories for price management. www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

Asia will buy less U.S. energy commodities this year than last despite President Trump’s efforts to use trade tariffs to boost purchases of #crude oil, #coal and #LNG. While Japan and South Korea have modestly lifted imports, China bought far less than in prior years. www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

China’s steel output was the weakest in 23 months in November and the annual total is likely to be the lowest since 2018. But iron ore imports are forecast to reach a record high, amid restocking and hopes for a better 2026 for steel demand. #steel #ironore #metals www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

China’s surplus #crude surged to a six-month high of 1.88 million bpd in November as the highest imports in 27 months far outweighed steady refinery processing. Increased import quotas and weaker oil prices likely drove the increase in crude available for storage. www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

India’s imports of Russian #crude are set to rise to a 6-month high in December as US sanctions are largely ignored. But which refineries are buying is changing, with Reliance cutting but part-Russian owned Nayara raising to levels in excess of its refining capacity. www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

China’s exports of steel and aluminium have diverged this year, with #steel surging as mills try to compensate for weak domestic demand, but #aluminium slipping as output caps and rising local consumption cut metal available for exports. #metals #commodities #China www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

China’s imports of major commodities were a bit of a mixed bag in November, with strength in crude oil and iron ore, but softness in copper and coal. Crude and iron ore were likely boosted by stockpiling amid steady prices. #crude #coal #ironore #copper #commodities www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

There was a small uptick in thermal coal imports by top buyers China and India in November, but recent price rises for the main grades may limit any rallies in volumes even as the winter peak demand approaches. #coal #thermalcoal #energy #mining www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

A main theme in LNG this year has been the slide in China’s imports, so much so that the top buyer is in danger of losing the crown back to Japan, according to Kpler data. High prices amid rising European demand have capped imports by price-sensitive Asian buyers #LNG www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

OPEC+ stuck to its script of an #oil market that is healthy with low inventories in deciding not to change output quotas at its meeting yesterday. This was expected, but it also shows that many #crude analysts diverge, seeing a supply glut next year. #OPEC #energy www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

Silver is not a media darling like gold, but it has delivered a higher percentage return than its more glamorous rival in the current 2-year uptrend. It also has a more compelling outlook of restrained supply and robust demand growth from solar panels. #silver #gold www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

One of the effects of the sanctions on Russian oil companies has been to tighten Asia’s diesel market, leading to refining margins hitting 2-year highs. The market now expects China’s refiners will step up and export more refined products in December. #energy #diesel www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

The COP30 statement may have disappointed environmentalists by not mentioning fossil fuels, but it wouldn’t have mattered much even if it had. What is clear is that the real battle is between “electrifiers” and “fossileers” and the money flow favours renewables #COP30 www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

China’s domestic thermal coal prices have surged to a one-year high amid stronger fossil-fuel power generation and lower #coal output. This has also dragged seaborne coal prices up from four-year lows, while volumes have remained largely steady. #energy #mining www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

There is a seeming contradiction between China’s slumping steel output and iron ore imports heading for a record year. The main difference is #ironore is focusing on stimulus hopes while #steel deals with the reality of soft demand. #commodities www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

The China crude oil storage story continued in October, with surplus crude rising to 690,000 bpd from September’s 570,000. Lower prices at the time cargoes were arranged encouraged imports to rise year-on-year, outweighing a gain in processing volumes. #crude #energy www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

LNG supply is poised to rise by 10% in 2026 from 2025, or about 44 million tons. This surge will swamp demand growth meaning spot prices will have to drop to tempt Asia’s price-sensitive buyers. The question is just how far will they have to fall. #LNG #energy www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

Saudi Aramco’s cut to its #crude oil prices for Asian refiners for December has been viewed as a move to gain market share amid oversupply concerns. But the cut was at the lower end of expectations and followed Aramco's pattern of responding to the market structure. www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

China’s imports of major commodities were a mixed bag in October, with soft outcomes for crude oil, natural gas, copper and coal, but strength in iron ore. High prices played their part in limiting appetite for oil, gas and copper. #crude #LNG #coal #copper #ironore www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

Gold surged 173% from the low in October 2022 to the recent record high around $4,381 an ounce and while this looks mighty impressive, it fades compared to the rallies of 518% in the late seventies and 634% in the noughties. #gold #mining #commodities www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

The trend in global LNG markets that has been in evidence so far in 2025 continued in October, with Asia imports dropping on weak China demand, but Europe arrivals rising by a bigger amount, thereby keeping spot prices robust. #LNG #natgas #energy #naturalgas www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

John Maynard Keynes may or may not have said “When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?" But it appears the OPEC+ 8 are following the advice by pausing increasing crude oil output targets in the first quarter of 2026. #crude #OPEC #energy www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

The dynamic of low prices boosting imports leading to higher prices, which in turn lead to lower imports has been on display in Asia’s thermal #coal markets. Top buyers China and India are on track for lower arrivals in October after prices rallied from 4-year lows. www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

China’s imports of iron ore are on track for the two strongest months on record in September and October, which seems at odds with weakening steel output. Positive sentiment about China’s economy and a potential trade deal with the U.S. are supporting the market. www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

it’s a common position in the #crude market to dismiss Western sanctions on Russian exports as a waste of time. But whether this is really the case depends on what you want. If the aim is to keep Russian oil in the market but cut Moscow’s revenue, they may be working. www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

Building a critical mineral supply chain outside of China, and the necessity of Western government support, was the main buzz at the IMARC event this week in Sydney. Perhaps surprisingly, given the return of Donald Trump, decarbonisation also featured strongly. www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

The US-Australia deal to invest in critical mineral supply chains is more of the first steps in a marathon than a game-changer that will cut Western dependence on China. #criticalminerals #minerals #metals #rareearths #mining www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

China’s stockpiling of #crude has been the market buzz recently, but flows into tanks slid in September as weak imports collided with rising refinery throughput. This underlines the role of oil prices, as September cargoes were arranged Israel-Iran price spike. www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

China is once again holding the threat of restrictions on exports of critical metals and minerals over the heads of Western buyers. While this is largely political, there is a risk that repeated threats will force the West to actually build its own supply chains. www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

China’s oil storage flows have been a top talking point this year in crude markets, but there is considerable uncertainty over how much is actually being added to inventories and how much more will be added in the future. #crude #energy #oil #OPEC www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

Crude oil has been driven this year by OPEC+ unwinding output cuts, China storing vast volumes and geopolitical tensions. These dynamics remain in play, but the problem is that all three are inherently unpredictable and subject to rapid changes. #crude #energy #OPEC www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

Many of the minerals deemed critical to the #energy transition are marooned in a purgatory of low prices while waiting for the anticipated demand to solve the current oversupply. While it will likely happen, it may take longer than anticipated. #criticalminerals www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

With prices near 4-year lows and mines being closed it would seem odd to have a bullish outlook for metallurgical #coal. But the scaling back of green steel ambitions and the construction of coal-based furnaces across Asia are creating a longer-term positive picture. www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

The Asian coal industry held its annual gathering this week in Bali and the contrast between the robust domestic markets of the Big 3 of China, India and Indonesia and the subdued outlook for the seaborne exporters was very much in evidence. #coal #energy #climate www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

The strength seen in China’s imports of seaborne thermal coal in August is on track to extend into September, helping prices for key Indonesian and Australian grades recover from 4-year lows. But the boost is likely to prove temporary. #coal #energy #mining www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

China’s steel sector continued to soften in August with output slipping to an eight-month low. But iron ore imports are robust and are set to rise again in September after a strong August, showing hope for a recovery in #steel demand remains the key driver. #ironore www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

To store or not to store, that is the China question. China’s surplus #crude jumped to just over 1 million bpd in August as imports and domestic output rose faster than refinery use. The question is will China keep buying more than it needs or wait for prices to fall. www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

While the focus is often on short-term price drivers in #crude markets, there are two longer-term trends that will shape flows. The first is the gain in supply is from the Americas but demand growth is in Asia. The second is the rising politicisation of oil markets. www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

The consensus view at this week’s APPEC oil event in Singapore was that it’s not a matter of if #crude prices are heading lower, it’s more of when and by how much. OPEC+ adding back barrels and the Trump risks to the global economy fuelled the gloom. #OPEC www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

The nearly $19 billion bid by Abu Dhabi’s ADNOC for Australian #LNG producer Santos is facing questions about the deal's value to Australia’s #energy sector. The old argument of you don’t sell foreigners the cow, you sell them the milk may see the deal knocked back. www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

Asia’s crude oil imports rose sharply in August from July, but it may be a reflection of lower prices at the time cargoes were arranged rather than an increase in demand. #crude #energy #OPEC #commodities www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

Donald Trump’s 50% #tariffs on imports from India may backfire insofar as Indian attitudes may harden and it will take the pain and keep buying Russian #crude as well as finding friends in U.S. opponents like China. The only obvious winner so far is Russia’s Putin. www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

China’s LNG imports are set to rise for a 4th month in August. While this may look like a robust recovery the key data point is that imports have still been weaker on a year-on-year basis for every month since October, as high spot prices bite. #LNG #energy #natgas www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

China’s seaborne imports of thermal #coal are poised to hit the highest this year in August while India may drop to the lowest in 3 years. The divergence is largely being driven by domestic output dynamics in both countries, but #renewables are playing a bigger role. www.reuters.com/business/ene...

Preliminary forecasts suggest a surge of US LNG is heading for Asia in October as some countries try to buy more in order to satisfy trade deals with the US. But even the increased volumes are likely to be well short of what President Trump is expecting. #LNG #energy www.reuters.com/business/ene...

BHP blamed lower iron ore prices for its weakest underlying profit in five years. But with flat demand in China and new supply about to hit the market, the price outlook may darken further. #ironore #steel #mining #commodities www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

A consistent theme of #crude markets since March is that China has been importing (and producing) more oil than it is processing, leaving a substantial surplus for storage. This eased in July but Chinese refiners continue to build a war chest of stockpiled crude. www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

Is Saudi Arabia really trying to regain market share with the OPEC+ decision to unwind the 2.2 million bpd of #crude output cuts? The Sept price hike suggests otherwise, as does a pullback in China’s Saudi imports and a pivot to cheaper Brazil and Angolan oil. #energy www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

Australia gave a modest amount of money to allow Trafigura’s Nyrstar unit to continue to operate two metal refineries. But the $87 million is also a sign that Western governments may be getting serious about keeping and developing critical mineral supply chains. www.reuters.com/markets/comm...