More from yours truly on US-China undercurrents feeding into China’s punitive stance vis-a-vis Japan. 中国、対日強硬の裏に米中「雪解け」　欧州大学院のジュリオ・プリエセ氏：日本経済新聞 www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZ...

Well thank you, Hiro, for the kind words (and for the interview): “米中日関係に詳しい欧州大学院のジュリオ・プリエセ博士は台湾問題で接点を探るため、米中がひそかに折衝している可能性を指摘する” 高市外交、対中打開は日米から　ヒントは欧州流に：日本経済新聞 www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZ...

Where did China’s Taiwan invasion “dress rehearsals” (cit. US IndoPacom) go? Aside from military-civil relations, US-China “G2” conversations may also explain quieter cross-Strait waters, at least on the kinetic side. jamestown.org/program/beij...

Fantastic piece by @ellipohlkamp.bsky.social on what conclusions the EU should draw from the Trump-Takaichi meeting. Worth a read.

Everything you wanted to know about Taiwan, but were afraid to ask. (by @insisa.bsky.social and yours truly). We'll be auditioned by the European Parliament on December 11 on the basis of this mammoth report. www.europarl.europa.eu/thinktank/en...

Il 9 settembre esce il mio secondo libro TOKYO È UNA GRANDE CUCINA I GIAPPONESI SI CONOSCONO A TAVOLA Come ho imparato a mangiare in Giappone, come ho conosciuto il giappone, e soprattutto il suo popolo, mangiando e bevendo insieme a persone di ogni tipo, amici,compagni di tavola, bancone di izakaya

BREAKING: Australia to buy 11 advanced Japanese frigates in breakthrough for Tokyo www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2025/08...

"[JMOD] said any response would 'be implemented on an individual and specific basis in accordance with the constitution, international law, and domestic laws and regulations'." In fact, GoJ has been, quietly, ticking all the above boxes in recent years. on.ft.com/4lpqwAr

If shipping can bypass the Red Sea and Suez Canal by going all the way around Africa and still report increases in profit as a result, there’s really no reason why ships going East of Taiwan instead of through the congested Taiwan Strait should cause that big of a disruption. Just saying

Telling interview on Japan's role in a Taiwan war: 1) Defense of Taiwan can happen if Japanese people's "daily activities" are infringed --pretty broad (Art. 13 hehe). 2) Japan can establish direct comms with Taiwan in "wartime" (i.e. end of strategic ambiguity) www.youtube.com/watch?v=0qIS...

I just found out that the US Department of State’s Taiwan Fact Sheet has disappeared. Through Wayback Machine (the Internet archive) it happened sometime in late April 2025. Shortly after the NSC clean up, three weeks+ after “Liberation Day”. Maybe conducive to US-China talks on Monday.

I just found out that the US Department of State’s Taiwan Fact Sheet has disappeared. Through Wayback Machine (the Internet archive) it happened sometime in late April 2025. Shortly after the NSC clean up, three weeks+ after “Liberation Day”. Maybe conducive to US-China talks on Monday.

Very interesting opening at NATO HQ: a China analyst to monitor and devise countermeasures to Chinese narratives on NATO. Effectively to buttress NATO’s public diplomacy and explain its IP4 engagement, I imagine.

Former Japanese Ambassador to Australia details closed-door conversations among strategists on the legal and strategic merits for Japan to deny it has a “One China” policy. www.spf.org/spf-china-ob...

🔍 How are shifting US alliances and global uncertainty reshaping Asia–Europe relations? In this interview, @pugliesasia.bsky.social reflects on the second Trump administration, rearmament in East Asia, and Europe’s role in a changing geopolitical landscape. 📖 Full interview here🔗 loom.ly/klJNIh8

And the indispensable @rudyakmarina.bsky.social, not to mention the impresario @neysunm.bsky.social :-)

🇪🇺🇨🇳 In very good company to discuss EU-China relations amid the Trump II era. @pugliesasia.bsky.social @ludovicameacci.bsky.social @franspaulvdputten.bsky.social @unaaleksandra.bsky.social @rturcsanyi.bsky.social It's on @chinafile.bsky.social 👇 www.chinafile.com/conversation...

Japan says no to the UK "deal" -- or to the idea of a global tariff baseline that Trump is wedded to. Should be fun. www.japantimes.co.jp/business/202...

The “elephant in the room” problem here is that we’ll end throwing the baby (global rules) with the dirty bathwater (need to balance China) in the process. The US-UK trade deal Amb. Mandelson signed a couple of days ago —including meek acceptance of 10% baseline tariffs— provides evidence of that.

"The number of U.S. diplomats, excluding local hires, jumped to more than 110 last year, from around 80 in 2022, the official revealed on condition of anonymity. The number of Japanese diplomats rose to almost 40, from 25 in 2022." asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Int...

Very pleased to announce that my new IISS Adelphi book on Japan is nearly with us. The tome considers whether 🇯🇵’s new grand strategy, defence reforms etc are up to the strategic task that 🇯🇵 has set itself against the background of increasing tensions around Taiwan in particular. On Amazon etc.

As Taiwan makes The Economist's cover story, do come over to @eui-schuman.bsky.social on May 7 and register for this event that I organized. Kerry Brown, @billemmott.bsky.social & Chikako Ueki will be presenting their books and research: Taiwan & the risk of WWIII. www.eui.eu/events?id=57...

Do come to EUI May 7 at 14.00 for what should be a great discussion on Taiwan

As Taiwan makes The Economist's cover story, do come over to @eui-schuman.bsky.social on May 7 and register for this event that I organized. Kerry Brown, @billemmott.bsky.social & Chikako Ueki will be presenting their books and research: Taiwan & the risk of WWIII. www.eui.eu/events?id=57...

We should all have Twitter/X accounts (and maybe also Truth Social ones) to avoid a Bluesky echo chamber, and witness firsthand MAGA’s grip on the Trump administration. MAGA restrainers likely on the rise in the US NSC.

Waltz and Wong are both out. MAGA is winning out over the China hawks. This will resonate in Asian and European capitals www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/tru...

📝 Next week at the Global Governance Programme: explore food security amid global shocks, trade opening and sustainability, Japan’s evolving security strategy, and Taiwan’s role in regional security. Register now ➡️ buff.ly/Kw0BOvY

A trip down memory lane 15y ago in April 2010 I started as a Sinology professor at Hamburg Uni following a couple of years in naval shipbuilding. In those days we had numerous Russian students (who were on average conscientious and polite) and one day, a Russian Sinology professor dropped by. A 🧵

In her remarks in Taiwan, prime minister-hopeful Takaichi calls for quasi-Asian NATO alliance by avoiding reference to the US (meaning the hosts and, lately, Takaichi have deep reservations on Trump) and the ROK (meaning she doesn’t like South Korea…). www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/...

Ten months ago, I wrote something conceptual and policy-oriented on the drivers behind NATO & IP4 defense industrial cooperation, with a focus on Japan & Italy. The highlighted dynamics are still playing out (and foresaw the spoiler to the fourth one...). www.spf.org/iina/en/arti...

On May 27, join Dr Mina Pollmann, Prof. Trevor Incerti and Prof Seiki Tanaka for a discussion on alliance-building in international relations and bureaucratic politics, exploring the case of Japan. Event is also online (and in Florence, of course). www.eui.eu/events?id=57...

Will an EU-US summit meeting —even just an informal one— take place in Rome, sooner than expected? (On the fringes of the Pope’s funeral)

Hopefully, Pope Francis’ words of advice to Vance doubled-down on the importance of compassion, just like those of the Secretary of State days before, and will make an impact on the US Vice-President.

Japan leading from behind. Reminds me of what happened under first Trump administration (Exhibit A: 2017~ US govt FOIP buy in & overhaul against China; Exhibit B: 2018~ Taiwan agenda…). Only problem now for Tokyo is that MAGA restrainers are strong. english.hani.co.kr/arti/english...

I’m proud to share that I’ve been selected as a Non-Resident Vasey Fellow at Pacific Forum! I’ll be exploring what drives less powerful states to participate in #minilateral groupings—especially as a way to hedge against the risks of over-reliance on the #US. Excited for this new adventure!

Dunk on this, but it's basically an extension of Biden's approach of demanding countries support U.S. containment of China while also offering almost no incentives to do so...the big difference now is, "help us so you don't get punished"

I am pretty sure that burners are secondary to this story…ehm ehm. www.ft.com/content/7f80...

How long until the EU Commission unveils a tripartite “partner, competitor, rival” approach vis-a-vis the US?

Old Continent facing a brave New World. www.ft.com/content/20d0...

Added value of EU into CPTPP is razor-thin. The EU has FTAs with big CPTPP economies, starting with Japan. CPTPP itself takes stock of pre-existing bilateral FTAs… A seismic shift (a unicorn) would be adding a major economy to CPTPP, enforcing strict rules, with no Vietnam carveouts: the PRC.

This does not look good, guys. It’s action-reaction dynamics in full swing. We can confide in Trump deal-making performance, but the environment will work against the sustainability of a US-China truce. Too much chest thumping around. Jeez.

Thank you, Financial Times, for giving us a peek through the looking glass of Project 2025’s (geo-)economic “thinking”. Great accompanying picture too. Europe must choose between America and China.

It’s possible that Beijing is not behind Chinese volunteers ending up in Ukraine, fighting for Russia. Ukraine’s spotlight on these figures may aim at reputation damage, eliciting PRC to more carefully monitor such flows. I might be wrong, but wouldn’t run to conclusions.

Tax Americana

Join us on April 11, both in-person and online, for a policy event co-organized by Prof Matteo Gerlini and yours truly on satellite governance in outer space. Space, the final frontier…of contestation? www.eui.eu/events?id=57...

👊🇪🇺🇯🇵🔥❓ Not really. (sorry for being the skeptical voice!) www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

Woah! This is amazing. If you read carefully you’ll also infer US foreign & security policy thinking and decision-making dynamics under Trump 2.0 www.theatlantic.com/politics/arc...

What are the origins, drivers and (de)merits of Italy's defense diplomacy in the Pacific? Joint paper with Alice Dell'Era as part of an Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs-sponsored project secured by Lore Termine, and supported by us at @eui-ggp.bsky.social. cadmus.eui.eu/handle/1814/...

Curious about the international politics and political economy — the substructure — behind the UK-Japan-Italy Global Combat Air Programme? See my analysis at below link. Lovely to be in such great company. www.hudson.org/security-all...

Thanks to @pugliesasia.bsky.social and @eui-eu.bsky.social for inviting me to join the EU/Asia annual conference. I enjoyed the stimulating discussions!