This morning’s walk - a Cotswolds hare enjoying the early sun.

RIP the great, great Alfred Brendel. There are so many wonderful recordings by him to choose from—the Schubert piano sonatas, the Beethoven piano sonatas and more. But this recording of the Brahms piano concerto no.1 is hard to beat. Recorded in 1979, it’s still glorious. Musical titan, indeed.

The Lee-Ishiba call ticked the boxes it needed to to keep ROK-Japan relations on an even keel. Ishiba’s was the second call made by Lee to a foreign leader (after that to Trump) after taking office. Cf prev ‘progressive’ Moon, where Japan was behind China. english.kyodonews.net/news/2025/06...

Last night’s view - Tokyo Tower looking superb. #東京タワー

Sunset this evening in Tokyo with Mt Fuji silhouetted in the distance. Yesterday’s rain has cleared the air. Just stunning. #sunset #富士山 #mountfuji #japan

One of the joys of Tokyo in June is the roadside hydrangeas. Spotted these gorgeous specimens over the past couple of days. #Japan

Japan’s new demographic stats are a shocker. Speed of recent decline in Japan’s births is clear in this Nikkei chart—dip below 1.1m in 2005, below 1m in 2016, below 900,000 in 2019, below 800,000 in 2022 and below 700,000 in 2024. All this 15 yrs ahead of govt’s expectation. Nikkei chart.

Nikkei map showing Kamandag military exercise (shaded blue circle). Spread of countries represented is striking—US, Philippines, Japan, ROK, UK. Map also refers to strategic alignment between China, Russia and DPRK and China’s own maritime advances.

US sld have studied Japan’s response to China’s curbs on rare earth exports to 🇯🇵 as bilateral geopol tensions rose. An early example of 🇨🇳’s weaponisation of trade interdependence. 🇯🇵 changed policy in response, building stockpiles etc. Here, US looks underprepared for geoecon struggle w 🇨🇳. FT pic.

Asahi chart showing top 10 foreign holders of US Treasuries. With USD1.3trn, Japan tops the league, well ahead of no.2 UK and no.3 China. But this is not really a leverage tool for Tokyo in negotiations. PM Hashimoto issued veiled threat in 90s, but rowed back. 🇯🇵 🇺🇸 security rels too important.

A beautiful light on yesterday’s walk first thing, despite the cloud. #Cotswolds #landscape #countryside

PM Ishiba exaggerates somewhat. Yes, Japan’s public debt stock is higher %GDP than Greece’s, but the economies are quite different structurally, Japan has its own currency/owns most of its debt etc. Ishiba rebuffs tax cut demands with Greek debt comparison www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2025/05...

2025 was to have been a banner year for Japan-ROK ties, marks 60 yrs since diplo relations started. This hiccup highlights lingering bilateral challenges, compounded by political uncertainties on both sides. www.stripes.com/theaters/asi...

Global current-account (im)balances—‘Donald Trump’s presidency is in part a symptom of this reality’. From excellent Wolf piece in FT on excess global savings.

Very pleased to announce that my new IISS Adelphi book on Japan is nearly with us. The tome considers whether 🇯🇵’s new grand strategy, defence reforms etc are up to the strategic task that 🇯🇵 has set itself against the background of increasing tensions around Taiwan in particular. On Amazon etc.

A reminder of China’s live-fire exercises around Taiwan. Map from this week’s Economist piece on the exercises foreshadowing a Chinese blockade of the island.

This morning’s walk - some unexpected companions. #Cotswolds

…more of today’s wonderful bluebells.

This morning’s walk. A carpet of English bluebells—there are few things finer. #Cotswolds #bluebells

Beautiful Paris - Île Saint-Louis, 4th, yesterday. #Paris #streetscape #city

Apple’s shift of for-US iPhone assembly to India from China highlights how quickly some production can move (here, by end-2026) and how US economic policy will force further supply-chain fragmentation—for-China production/for RoW prod already in train—as MNCs build resilience. FT paras.

Chinese biz mag Caijing the first to report Chinese tariff exemptions for certain chip imports, then more from Bloomberg and Reuters China blinked too - but not publicly. And the most interesting line: "The Caijing report was deleted from its website and official WeChat channel by noon Friday"

Hidden Paris - 11th, last week. #Paris #streetscene #city

Some rare good news… Excellent to see concrete things happening as UK-Japan strategic economic relations tighten. All the more so given fragmentation of cross-border data flows. This will be good for R&D and more in this critical area. asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tec....

Sir András Schiff after a sensational 90 minutes or so of Bach’s Art of Fugue last night at La Salle Pierre Boulez at the Philharmonie de Paris. Stunning.

Walk in Paris last week - rue du Faubourg Saint-Antoine. #Paris #streetscape #city

So many favourites from the visit earlier this week to see the David Hockney show at Paris’s Fondation Louis Vuitton. Joyous, fabulous and life-affirming—lifted the spirits…

Today, April 14th, marks 113 years since the Titanic sank. A while ago I managed to hunt down this picture of my great grandfather, Percy Ward, a bedroom steward on the ship and who went down with it. RIP to him and all who lost their lives that night. #Titanic113

Great FT chart showing UK productivity and real wages since 1800. UK’s current productivity stagnation unprecedented since 18th century. As Wolf says in the open: ‘…the UK economy has gone ex-growth’.

Another glorious sunrise in this corner of the Cotswolds today—complete with morning mist too. #landscape #cotswolds

Inflation is one thing, but suspect investors are also pricing in a Trump move on the US capital account too. Wld be highly disruptive, but those around Trump have been flagging this for a while. www.reuters.com/markets/glob...

Japan wants a stronger yen, but not like this—JPY rising at a time of acute global trade stress against the USD and the RMB (chart), two key export markets, and with its production bases in Southeast Asia reeling under brutal US tariffs. Nikkei chart shows 🇯🇵 firms ops in SEA. Grim.

Ah...English Curry. Think this is more the taste of Hokkaido, than home.

Asia a clear focus of Trump’s tariffs—for many they’re swingeing, for some they’re brutal, eg Vietnam 46%. Difficult to think of a policy that wld have been better calibrated to drive swathes of the region closer into China’s orbit. US strategic position in Asia is now significantly weaker. FT chart

This is where all the information actually is, by the way

The bad news for Japan (and others) from Trump tariff speech today is compounded by the eyewatering tariffs on Vietnam (46%), Thailand (36%) others used as export bases. Moreover, China (34%), surely, has no choice but to retaliate given the politics. The end of the global trading order that was.

Trump’s comment in tariff speech that ‘TPP would have been a disaster if I hadn’t terminated it’ isn’t a surprise, but puts pressure on Japan and UK as largest economies in TPP’s successor, CPTPP, to think even more strategically about trade bloc’s role in now rapidly fragmenting 🌍 trading system.

Trump tariff speech bleak for Japan. 🇯🇵 car market singled out, 🇯🇵 in line for 24% US reciprocal tariff, 🇯🇵 swept into ‘friend is worse than foe’ in trade terms bucket. Trump’s praise for ‘fantastic man’ late PM Abe Shinzo a rare bright spot for Tokyo. Cold water after SecDef Hegseth visit success in 🇯🇵

This morning’s walk - just after sunrise. #Cotswolds #landscape #sunrise

Demographic decline in Europe and Asia writ large: Italy’s births hit record low of <400k in 2024, 16th year of straight decline. Japan’s births, meanwhile, hit 125-year low (ie, since records began) in 2024, 9th year of consecutive decline heading towards 700k. FT charts.

Nikkei outlines the difficulties Japan is having with economic diplomacy with the US and tariffs. Repeating the Abe playbook of identifying interests, buying time with negotiations is not working. This was always optimistic given Trump 2 radicalisation. www.nikkei.com/article/DGKK...

SecDef Hegseth’s visit to Japan went well—altho 🇯🇵 will be asked to do increasingly more in bilat alliance. Follows successful 🇺🇸 🇯🇵 🇮🇳 🇦🇺 Quad Foreign Ministers’ mtg in Jan. Reflects in part the legacy of PM Abe’s strong relationship with Trump 1 and that of PM Kishida’s historic defence reforms.

US SecDef in Tokyo: In opening remarks ahead of talks with JPN counterpart, Hegseth stressed the strength of the alliance, saying it "has never been stronger." "President Trump has also been clear on what a great relationship he has with Japan."

21 yrs ago, 🇱🇹🇱🇻🇪🇪🇧🇬🇷🇴🇸🇰🇸🇮 joined NATO in a 'big bang' accession. We knew collective defense was key to safeguarding our independence. And it did. Today, in these times of a clear and present danger, Europe needs a 'big bang' in defence production and readiness.

Another glorious start to the day - memories of the long, grey and damp winter are now fading. #landscape #cotswolds #fujifilmxt5

Trump Could Hand China a ‘Strategic Victory’ by Silencing Voice of America www.nytimes.com/2025/03/28/b...

A reminder of Japan’s proximity to Taiwan and of the threat to 🇯🇵 from any 🇹🇼 ‘emergency’. Graphic from Nikkei piece on govt plans to evacuate 120k ppl over 6-day periods from 🇯🇵’s exposed southwestern region to Kyushu, Yamaguchi Prefecture in such an emergency.

Yes, perhaps not a return to 1930s exactly despite rising US tariffs, but the damage to trade and trust will be lasting and broad, with a knock-on to global growth. Some useful data in WSJ article. www.wsj.com/economy/trad...

IISS Japan Chair event 🔔 alert🔔 ‼️ 👉webinar on the geo-economics of critical materials, green tech and more in the Indo-Pacific. Details 👇👇👇👇 🌐 Webinar 📆 Thurs 3 April ⏰ 12:00-13:00 BST 💬 Panel: Tatsushi Amano Dr Kristin Vekasi Dr Suzuki Hitoshi Registration 👇👇👇👇 www.iiss.org/events/2025/...

Japanese novels having a moment in UK—🇯🇵 authors have 40% of sales of translated novels in 🇬🇧, Yuzuki’s Butter sells more in 🇬🇧 than in 🇯🇵. Chart from Nikkei showing top 🇯🇵 novels in translation in UK. 🇯🇵 culture enjoying boom elsewhere in UK too.