As observed by @AnielloIannone1 in his piece, in spite of the #Thailand-#Cambodia ceasefire brokered by #Malaysia, #ASEAN inability to prevent intra-members’ conflict is concerning Security governance failures may be a driver for ASEAN centrifugal tendencies we’ve seen recently

“Then as now, our foreign policy remains the same: the #Philippines is a friend to all. The Philippines is an enemy to none” It won’t be a #China pivot, but perhaps we will see a less combative BBM in the future. stateofthenation.gov.ph/sona/2025/

#US forcing #Indonesia to sign a prior neglected EEZ agreement as sign of commitment to the current maritime order may be an indicator on how great powers (especially the US) are increasingly intolerant with equidistant foreign policies in the region. www.aspistrategist.org.au/it-looks-lik...

The #US backs the Luzon Economic Corridor for the #Philippines pledged by Biden in 2024 Two takeaways - Alignment for development is the way for engaging key partners - The trilateral form of the agreement and #Japan's stake sustain the enterprise lnkd.in/gcYikuH9

Excited to go back to Rome after many years as a member of this roundtable! Topic: The stuff I love to talk about. Haha.

For the #Philippines and #Vietnam, #Japan is a solid partner to cultivate a fallback position with. lnkd.in/g6BgykPc

Manila’s counter-flag unfurling means that #China “won’t be able to claim that the #Philippines has tacitly acquiesced to its displays of sovereignty over the features,” My take on the latest "battle of the flags" at Sandy Cay in Raissa Robles's latest article Geopolitics Polisky lnkd.in/gr74j9km

If you want a magistral example on how Great Powers' influence spans locally, look no further than the #Philippines. Glad to see this project by @ariesarugay.bsky.social Aletheia Kerygma B. Valenciano Edcel John A. Ibarra and Miguel Hermo being disseminated! #Geopolitics #Polisky lnkd.in/g4mxMRbq

For the #Philippines, putting a flag on the rock of Sandy Cay is not just symbolic. It must show that there is no acquiescence to sovereignty claims by #China . The risk is to be without proofs of sovereignty vs other states' claims in future arbitrations. www.theguardian.com/world/2025/a...

It would be the interest of the #Philippines to keep a demarcation line between economic cooperation and maritime disputes with #China to pave the way for an improvement in relations. But It’ll require a cohesive vision on foreign policy. lnkd.in/gNpTAnnz

"Marcos Jr has demonstrated that striking a deal with #China is possible without being defeatist or fatalistic." This is what #Philippines foreign policy should aim at, at a minimum. And this is also not emphasized too much in the public debate, regardless of the "faction" one sides with.

“The #Philippines wants more actors to have a stake in its security, which is instrumental in mitigating its fears of isolation and abandonment,” My take on the #Balikatan 2025 in @samzbeltran.bsky.social latest article! lnkd.in/gwGtnJvH

#Philippines second BrahMos purchase is explained by the desire of keeping good ties with #India. The cost is the purchase of a non-interoperable and Russian tech dependent system. lnkd.in/g-Ypwu6t

#Italy mega shipbuilder's offer arrives after a visit to the #Philippines by Italian Navy officers just a month ago. Such pattern was also seen in occasion of other big-ticket arms sales to other regional countries. www.asiapacificdefensejournal.com/2025/04/finc...

I’m proud to share that I’ve been selected as a Non-Resident Vasey Fellow at Pacific Forum! I’ll be exploring what drives less powerful states to participate in #minilateral groupings—especially as a way to hedge against the risks of over-reliance on the #US. Excited for this new adventure!

“…milestone issues include […] whether the code should be legally binding — points that have repeatedly deadlocked negotiations.” And I guess they’ll keep deadlocking them.

So proud of my co-author and Desk Coordinator Alice Dell'Era for this podcast! It is very exciting to see some of the arguments developed in our works emerging as useful tools to understand regional developments. Mega job, and definitely recommended!! #Geopolitics www.iiss.org/podcasts/jap...

#ASEAN's credibility splintered way before the tariffs. The Association cry for a unitary response now against US tariffs, when other issues like the South China Sea have been sidelined multiple times in favor of bilateral negotiations. www.scmp.com/week-asia/ec...

The #US - #Philippines Joint Vision Statement on Defense Industrial cooperation confirms pre-existing #US preferences for new forms of economic assistance: special treatments in exchange of alignment.

To #Taiwan or not to #Taiwan? Advocates of limited restraint suggest that the #Philippines should focus on the South China Sea and not on the north. Conversely, the government position leans towards a direct involvement in a strait contingency. news.usni.org/2025/04/02/p...

#US may sell 20 F16s to the #Philippines via FMS. The US declared that this won’t alter the balance of power I disagree: sales of fighter jets do have an impact. That’s why this sale implies a specific alignment choice Manila has to make for the future www.rappler.com/philippines/...

#US and #Philippines issued a joint statement on defense industrial cooperation. This is a relevant innovation in alliance relationships. Quite puzzling considered how the current administration is trying to pull off investments back to the #US from abroad. news.usni.org/2025/03/28/s...

In an official visit, DOD Secretary #Hesgeth reaffirmed #US commitments in ensuring #Philippines defense, including the pledge of 500mln usd in military support advanced by his predecessor. globalnation-inquirer-net.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/globalna...

Flaming remarks from the #Philippines defense and law-enforcement on #China vessels blocking Filipino fishermen in Scarborough Shoal. This incident is the first reported after weeks of relative calm. Few days before the arrival of new #US DOD secretary. apnews.com/article/phil...

Excellent report by Alice Dell'Era and @pugliesasia.bsky.social on #Italy engagement in Northeast Asia and the Indo-Pacific! The challenge for Italy is to maintain a balance between costly signals, like dispatching naval assets, and military- industrial gains. Link: cadmus.eui.eu/handle/1814/...

#Philippines wants #India to buy critical mineral to hedge vs its overreliance on Chinese imports. But: - India but isn’t a tech power yet. So no immediate effects - PH must make India invest in processing/smelting too. Or the impact on growth will be low. www.scmp.com/week-asia/ec...

After a visit of a high-ranking Italian Navy official to the #Philippines, #Italy aims at expanding defense cooperation in shipbuilding Italy is targeting a specific niche where it can contribute. And -of course- this caters to our naval defense industry tribune.net.ph/2025/03/18/p...

Un mio piccolo recap sull’arresto dell’ex presidente Filippino #Duterte, ora imputato alla Corte Penale Internazionale dell’Aja per Crimini contro l’umanità, connessi alla sua famosa “guerra alla droga”. www.geopolitica.info/filippine-du...

This analysis is a clear invitation to treasure what the #Philippines has learned last year, especially after the June incident: - Return of AFP in West Philippine Sea - Assertive diplomacy and strategic communication thediplomat.com/2025/03/the-...

#ICC arrests former #Philippines president #Duterte. It has been in the air for a while now, but the timing is quite telling: part of the élite struggle currently going on. apnews.com/article/rodr...

#Indonesia under Prabowo is becoming the current benchmark for personalistic foreign policies in SEA. And in many cases (like the Philippines under Duterte) failing to address the “leader variable” leads to distorted explanations on countries’ behavior. eastasiaforum.org/2025/03/06/i...

#Trump’s hostility towards multilateral institutions will further push the #US towards minilateralism. In US led minilaterals, “club goods” are provided in exchange of alignment and at the exclusion of nonaligned actors - a notion that may be now desired by Washington. rsis.edu.sg/rsis-publica...

In light of the #Trump squalid performance vs #Zelensky, Trump is trying to corner #Ukraine into a rare minerals deal for relative gains vs #China. I will keep an eye on this US interest in critical minerals also in the #Philippines, reiterated by Rubio in several occasions.

#US exempted some 330mln USD of security assistance to #Philippines from the general froze in foreign aid Could be more? Sure. But it’s strong evidence of support for PH security in DC Just so the debate on Trump 2.0 and PH security can rely on real info and not speculation.

#France aircraft Carrier conducted joint drills with the #Philippines navy in West Philippine Sea. It signals commitment on maritime security in times of relative uncertainty. France has a strong interest in doing so because of its indopacific territories www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2...

Excellent article on recent #Indonesia’s shifting foreign policy. “Should US–China strategic competition intensify, as appears likely, such strategic compartmentalisation could become increasingly untenable” A problem that we may be hear of more in future. www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

This very good piece on the #Typhon system shows persisting fears of the #Philippines being at the mercy of superpower politics. Which in my opinion, is just partially true. But I praise the fact that PH is not portrayed as the irresponsible arms-racer. www.rappler.com/philippines/...

Several critical issues are impacting #ASEAN and #Malaysia must tackle them for a successful chairmanship, with little hope about the ability of its leader to do so. In addition, even a critical article overlooks the South China Sea. A glaring omission. www.thejakartapost.com/opinion/2025...

Impeachments are becoming increasingly popular in Asian polarized democracies, as today the #Philippines Congress has impeached the VP Sara Duterte, daughter of former president Rodrigo Duterte. www-manilatimes-net.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www.mani...

#ROK #Japan #Australia are like minded middle powers with different threat perceptions and strategic objectives. Their partnership may result in something similar to #GCAP: a platform to increase partners’ capabilities without a clear deterrence objective. www.jfir.or.jp/en/commentar...

No analyst seriously considers #BBM’s “offer” to return the Typhon in exchange of #China withdrawing from the West Philippine Sea. #Philippines’ presidents often talk about #US - #China competition in their rhetoric for domestic legitimation only. www.scmp.com/week-asia/po...

I believe in the central role that #Indonesia can play in #ASEAN. But at this juncture Indonesian leadership acts as if it’s outgrowing the association. For their domestic legitimation perhaps, but this is sending a bad signal to other dissatisfied members www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpre...

#Philippines anxieties may be there and grounded in fears of abandonment beyond the current #US administration. That’s why it sought an hedge with other partners, and is bearing the costs of military modernization. asiatimes.com/2025/01/phil...

The huge potential for the #Philippines to become a maritime nation is one of the reasons that led me to study it more in depth. And I would like to believe that quite rapidly, such potential is awakening. www-bworldonline-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www.bwor...

#Philippines’ preference for partners diversification resulted from paranoia of #US abandonment impossibility to find in #China a friendly alternative. But if not translated in also in assistance for economic resilience, such partnerships may be volatile. www.philstar.com/news-comment...

#ASEAN middle powers are incrementally outgrowing the association. And this trend is accelerated by country leaders’ questo for legitimacy elsewhere. asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Int...

The #IPSA 2025 panel on Italian and European Indo-Pacific strategies I’ve proposed has been accepted! A special thanks to my friends and colleagues of @Geopolitica, Lorenzo Termine, Aniello Iannone, Alessandro Vesprini who will present and Prof Gabriele Natalizia as discussant!

Infrastructure development may be the currency for alignment choices in SEAsia. It is an avenue to substantiate #QUAD ambitions. The challenge is to convince the #US to play the infrastructure game, something that has been somewhat achieved with #JAPHUS. www.factsasia.org/blog/a-case-...

I agree with this excellent commentary on the fact that #JAPHUS’ future is tied to PH domestic dynamics. Indeed, the Joint Statement is all about #Philippines’ economic resilience: Marcos Jr needs to deliver something more to his audience. 1/2 www.factsasia.org/blog/minilat...

Started 2025 on the right foot by attending the King’s College London Short Course on Strategic Stability organized by the British Embassy in Manila💪 Grateful for the amazing opportunity!