A new foreign policy role that looked set to be Martin Selmayr’s seemed an ideal way for the “Monster of the Berlaymont” to return to Brussels. But it was clumsy politicking that proved to be the downfall of the veteran German civil servant.  🔗  www.politico.eu/article/insi...

Germany’s top operational commander warned today that Russia could be capable of launching a large-scale attack on NATO “soon” if its military buildup continues unchecked.

Pokrovsk: Where Putin Shattered His Teeth | "'Last November, I visited Pokrovsk and called it the farmhouse at Waterloo,' writes the former Ukrainian Marine, Shaun Pinner. Both places have mauled the army of an imperial aggressor."

😮 Norway finds out that its electric busses - produced by a Chinese firm - can be remotely controlled from China! The good news of this is that the Norwegians realised this because they did a cybersecurity test. We need to think about, and test, stuff like this more. www.focus.de/panorama/wel...

"If #NATO nations allow themselves to be distracted by a few drones flying from #Russia, they risk missing the bigger picture when it comes to both Russia and drones. " www.rand.org/pubs/comment...

RUSI was honoured to host His Majesty The King to celebrate the 50 years of service His Royal Highness The Duke of Kent has given the Institute as President. Find out more about the evening and our royal heritage here: bit.ly/4qQtvoL

Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) on Nov. 4 released footage of what is said was an ongoing special operation in the embattled city of Pokrovsk; Germany will boost financial aid to Ukraine by around 3 billion euros ($3.5 billion) next year; and more.

⚡️Video shows Russian drone killing civilians with white flag, Ukraine opens war crimes investigation. Russian troops struck two unarmed civilians with an FPV drone near the village of Kruhliakivka in the Kupiansk district, according to video footage provided by Ukraine's 77th Airmobile Brigade.

It's a proven strategy that usually works for a while, but at some point the smaller countries trying to get the larger ally invested in (or entangled, if you want to be that way) their defence will start asking difficult questions about the actual capabilities the larger partner is bringing.

This from someone who insists on using private aircraft rather than commercial flights.....

This year, over 3,200 children from the occupied Donetsk region visited Russian cities as part of the “Cultural Map 4+85” program. The program is aimed at indoctrinating Ukrainian teens and raising them as Russians. #BehindTheLines

Volodymyr Zelenskyy told reporters at the sidelines of the EUCO summit today that Russia must pay the price for its invasion with its frozen assets. “If Russia brought war to our land, they have to pay for this war.” Read more on our live blog: www.politico.eu/article/eu-l...

A good summary of the mood in Brussels on the big geopolitical questions. "Early this year some European politicians sought closer ties with China as a hedge against American bullying. Today dependency on China is a greater concern" www.economist.com/internationa...

🇵🇱⚖️🇩🇪🇺🇦 Quite incredible passages in the opinion of ("old") judge Dariusz Łubowski in the case: "The destruction of critical infrastructure of any country (...) in a just, defensive war (...) are not sabotage, but military actions of a diversionary nature, which can in no way be considered crimes."

Dutch intelligence suspends sharing arrangements with the US after concluding that high level intel was routinely being shared by the White House with their friends in the Kremlin. www.volkskrant.nl/binnenland/n...

It’s striking what a professional job Matt Collins did in these witness statements. The first describes in forensic detail the threat from Chinese intelligence operations and how this was ‘prejudicial to the safety or interests of the state’. 1/2 www.gov.uk/government/p...

Conference season is such a waste of everyone's time - a month when our political system could be doing something useful spent coming up with daft announcements no one cares about.

So when a new story breaks, as it has today, that Trump is going to use US taxpayer money, paid with 500% tariffs on Chinese goods, to set up a victory fund for Ukraine, people need to first and foremost say it is most likely BS. united24media.com/latest-news/...

Frontline states enduring Russia’s hybrid assault on Europe think Donald Trump is right: Spain and other southern allies are failing to back them up.

The recent NATO Summit in The Hague focused narrowly on defence spending targets but overlooked the deeper issue of societal resilience. 'Societal resilience must be seen as central, not separate, to national defence' writes Katharine A.M. Wright in the latest RUSI Commentary.

In her monumental work, Darya Tsymbalyuk insists the world must reckon with the full cost of the destruction in Ukraine — not just in hectares lost or tons of grain burned, but in the severed roots that once tied generations to the land they called home.

Labour MPs reckon that if the ceasefire holds it will be harder for opponents to mobilize against them over the Israel-Palestine issue in the next election. There are concerns though about whether the fragile agreement will hold. More in London Playbook PM.

CPS being inept is not a new story.

The story for his major EU initiatives is also not great: - Sorbonne speech/agenda (largely wiffed away) - Conference on the Future of Europe (went nowhere) - European Intervention Initiative (mostly dead?) - European Political Community (alive as diplomatic speed dating)

⚡️Military aid to Ukraine declines sharply in recent months, report says. Military aid to Ukraine has fallen dramatically in recent months, a report by the Kiel Institute published on Oct. 14 has found.

Ukrainians are feeling a deep unease that the rest of Europe is tired, turning its attention away from the war and viewing it as something that should simply end, no matter the cost.

Exactly, Putin is an opportunist, in other words. And the West could reduce his opportunities…

In a way, all permanent representations of EU member states in Brussels do 'political intelligence' but this is a whole different level.

„Rearm Europe“ will fail unless EU members come together to work with partners to do whatever it takes to break the dependence on China on critical raw materials. If anyone had doubts about the urgency, Beijing dispelled those very effectively today. www.reuters.com/world/china/...

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has a clear term for the reports of drones overflying the bloc's critical infrastructure in recent months: "Hybrid warfare."

Bottom-line : this is basically doable and consequently the Russian taxpayer may soon be paying the costs of Western military support to Ukraine

The Atlantic article reinforces this recent piece of analysis: "The Case for War: Why the West Should Double Down in Ukraine" ip-quarterly.com/en/case-war-...

“Almost half of respondents (48%) favoured the European Commission-coordinated defence investments, whereas 41% preferred the decision to be made nationally.” www.euractiv.com/news/public-...

So while there will be valuable military targets for US cruise missiles, I can't help but feel we are talking about a narrow set of high-value targets representing critical points in the supply chain, or particular niche capabilities, rather than seeking an impact across the war.

Badenoch and Co see education only as a means to a massive income in some soul destroying career. Devoid of imagination and the power of knowledge they view life entirely through the prism of the CV. My advice always is to study what interests you and the rest will follow

Here is @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social on Russia’s disruption campaign against Europe. I’m not sure I would be so optimistic on the Kremlin being worried by US & EUR behaviour, but the conclusion is unshakeable: absent a serious response, this will get much worse. www.iiss.org/online-analy...

And here we go. I never wrote this article, and yet it is cited here. www.liberalbriefs.com/geopolitics/... And of course, it sounds so plausible, I seriously checked whether I had forgotten it, or the footnote was slightly wrong. #AIisnotresearch

Marine Le Pen has already toppled two French governments in less than a year. She didn’t even need to pull the trigger to kill off a third one.

Russia's playbook in Ukraine includes bombs, cyberattacks, misinformation, and supply disruptions—all aimed at healthcare resilience. As European militaries ready themselves for war, the UK risks making medical readiness an afterthought, write @edrusi.bsky.social and Si Horne.

Latest for @rusi.bsky.sociwwwon how medical provision would be impacted by war in Europe. Spoiler alert - not good, despite understanding by Med professionals on the challenge. Better sorting these out before war starts and thats on politicians... www.rusi.org/explore-our-...

*gasp*

The Kyiv Independent is proud to announce the U.S. premiere of its first full-length documentary, “Can You Hear Me? The Invisible Battles of Ukrainian Military Medics,” hosted in collaboration with the Embassies of Sweden and Ukraine. Register here: docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...

"If you had to pick one man in the world who does not have a great reputation for bringing peace to the Middle East, it would have to be Tony Blair." Why is the former Labour PM part of Trump's Palestine peace deal?

"As important as the new bilateralism is, then, it is closely and crucially linked to broader relations between the UK and the EU as a whole" @jannikewachowiak.bsky.social and @anandmenon.bsky.social analyse warmer UK-German relations for @internationalepolitik.de ip-quarterly.com/en/new-chapt...

Judging by their speeches, neither Trump nor Hegseth has paid the slightest attention to how actual wars are being fought in the actual world. The “war fighting” and “lethality” they plan is inside their own country and comes from conflicts inside their own minds.

This strikes me as optimistic given the timeline. Assuming the yearly schedule means the next EU-UK summit is in May 2026, this means that the UK gov would be willing to settle the current EU-UK agenda at the same time while Labour (and the Tories) are battered by Reform in the local elections.

Why??? Its like being 5 steps behind on whack a mole

Literally said this yesterday in ameeting with MoD - as NATO reinforces Copenhagen airport, we need to look at other vulnerabilities. Always reacting to Putins tune

Europe is looking for ways to use around €200bn of Russian assets it froze at the start of the war to help Ukraine. It's tricky legally. But the financial engineering bit was figured out decades ago with the help of David Bowie. My Charlemagne this week. www.economist.com/europe/2025/...