This is more funny than the author knows because ”to be out and biking” is a Swedish idiom meaning that you’ve totally misunderstood something. Apart from the catchy headline, many very good points in the text by Stephen M. Walt. Worth your while.

So it looks like Chris Wormald will be leaving his job as cabinet secretary I wrote this just before he was appointed - did he achieve these tasks? www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...

Lithuania is looking to its European allies to prepare for the day when it may not be able to rely on U.S. troops to defend itself against Russia, Prime Minister Inga Ruginienė has said.

Latest for @rusi.bsky.social If the PM has failed to start his own national conversation on defence in 18 months, why would his (potential) successor? Time is running out! www.rusi.org/explore-our-...

Write up of Metsola comments on the UK. One can see some momentum growing for deeper relations / moving on from divorce. But that will have to be built politically in the first instance rather than through detailed negotiations. www.politico.eu/article/eu-p...

At 10:30 am GMT Carlos Solar will give evidence to Foreign Affairs Committee on the implications of the US intervention in Venezuela. Tune in: https://committees.parliament.uk/event/26383/formal-meeting-oral-evidence-session/ Visit our page below for more on our research on Latin America.

Starting to wonder about the EU dimension of this. Mandelson was EU trade commissioner - one of the most important EU portfolio - in 2004 to 2008 after all.

Of course the PM doesn’t have the power to unilaterally remove Mandelson from the Lords. But given it can only be removed via an act of Parliament in government time, Starmer is hardly powerless, indeed he is the only person who can make it happen.

The Alternative for Germany party has done everything from suing to attempting to leverage ties to the Trump administration to end their banishment from the Munich Security Conference. Those efforts appear to have paid off. 🔗 www.politico.eu/article/germ...

"If Europe is as serious about preventing Ukraine’s defeat as it now appears to be, a coordinated long-term strategy will do more to help Kyiv...than its current practice of lurching from one aid package to another." Read the latest from @sophiabesch.bsky.social 🔽

He's going to get a bit of a suprise when he reads the new US National Defence Strategy!

Has Rutte read the US National Defense Strategy? It basically says that in the future the US will only provide "critical but more limited support" to a European conventional force. How is that different from the concept he is criticising?

Minus 18 degrees centigrade coming up for Murmansk this week. Hasn't had power for four days. That might sharpen a few minds as to what the Russian government is squandering the natural resource bonanza on.

I still don't buy the idea of a CRINK alliance - yes, there are points of convergence, yes, there is cooperation, but it's no tight strategic alignment or an "axis". For me, it's a US framing (from a very specific perspective) which does not help Europe tailor its foreign policy response.

Despite the matcho language to help credibility and deterrence, I see no circumstances where European forces would fire first on the US.

Dozens of shadow fleet tankers have traversed the English Channel since promises of tougher stance. Danish Straits see about the same numbers. BBC is not clear on if they mean flagless or flagged tankers, but either way there are lots. Pic related, sanctioned tankers this minute.

We are hosting a RUSI member exclusive briefing and Q&A with a panel of RUSI experts tomorrow. The panel will be exploring the implications of President Trump’s threats to annex Greenland. Not a RUSI member? Join today: https://my.rusi.org/membership.html

Finally

One part of The @economist.com's cover package this week is a detailed, methodical and compelling dismantling of the Trump admin's ever-shifting case for acquiring Greenland, almost every element of which is false, exaggerated or confused. A truly confected crisis. www.economist.com/briefing/202...

Four VCs for UK forces in Iraq and Afghanistan. Two of them posthumous. An obvious question for his British admirers.

What a week to discuss Arctic and High North security at the @rusi.bsky.social Now to write something coherent and future proofed...

Of course the NATO Secretary General isn't going to further inflame things by commenting in public, but he must know that this is nothing like Greece-Turkey. The US has been the dominant state NATO, the primary security provider, and it's now threatening to invade a fellow member.

Eurgh

“We have done so much for America”: Denmark fought alongside the U.S. in Afghanistan. Now, as Trump eyes Greenland, the families of fallen soldiers have a message for him, @isaacstanleybecker.bsky.social reports: theatln.tc/I8nGcxwO

@jasonralph.bsky.social and me wrote the following bit about what Trump's shenanigans mean for the balancing act Starmer has tried to maintain in British foreign policy. TLDR, there's a reckoning coming... theconversation.com/why-keir-sta...

Called it!

Senior figures from across the British political spectrum are calling on the government to make a more visible show of support for Greenland in the face of continued threats from Donald Trump’s White House.

This is *before* the new budget increases, which could take the total cost over £100bn www.ft.com/content/3f73...

Louise Casey blunt on grade inflation in the civil service - compares decisions grade 5s make now to those fast streamers used to make…

All good but where is Bush and Gates?

Note: In their relevant joint declarations, NATO and the EU have committed themselves to working jointly on "promoting the women peace and security agenda". All EU security and defence partnerships include sections on the role of women in peace & security.

Translation: "I would like a job please"

a decade is a long time in politics

Some comments from me on Greenland. Regardless of the detail the political crisis is that when NATO faces external threats it galvinises the Alliance. When it faces internal challenges it weakens it Denmark’s race to defend Greenland – and why it may be too late www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2...

It is fascinating to me how in Germany there is this strong conviction that the UK (and France) have these super strong militaries and when you look inside the countries, it’s 👇 www.thetimes.com/uk/defence/a...

Slight change of focus from me but still highly relevant to security. Food security is well known, but the argicultural sector could also have a role in protecting CNI, freeing up capacity of the police and military.

Food security matters, and this time I am tagging the author, my friend and colleague @edrusi.bsky.social

Consequence of governing by polls but also not polling the questions that matter and being suprised by the backlash

Consequence of governing by polls but also not polling the questions that matter and being suprised by the backlash

"I doubt NATO would be there for us if we really needed them".....

Keir Starmer confirmed today that members of parliament would vote on whether to deploy British troops to Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire.

John Bew on form: "It cannot be healthy that more energy is spent in European capitals assessing the legality of Maduro’s toppling than on a post-mortem on the failure to mobilise frozen Russian assets in support of Ukraine at the most critical point in the war". www.newstatesman.com/internationa...

Sidepoint: I am finding the idea of Ukraine – which has the most effective army in Europe – learning that Britain and France are going to send in a few thousand to observe peace once the war is over, darkly funny. "Phew, thank god the big guns are here to save us!!!"

All the mentions of peace talks and peace plans are deeply misleading – these are ceasefire talks, not paths to permanent resolution of the conflict. That’s because the status of the Ukrainian occupied territories will remain unresolved as long as Russia occupies them.

Thanks to the monumentally stupid decision to invade Ukraine, Russia is even less of a great power than it was 4 years ago. If your military capacity relies on DPRK and Iran, and you've turned yourself into a dependent of China, you’re not a great power. carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Agreed. Not sure whether DC would prioritise NATO over Greenland?

The truth of the matter is that it was never NATO that was “brain dead”. It was Europe. We have been in a coma for decades.

Good example of what might happen if Europe is engaged in war with Russia. Lots of groups - including terrorists - will come out of the woodwork and decide to disrupt/attack when law enforcement is distracted. The terrorism threat goes up, not down, when the state war risk goes up

European weakness on full display by these horribly contorted responses from Merz, Macron and Starmer - neither condoning nor condemning US actions in Venezuela Such weakness only risks making the Europeans more vulnerable (ie Greenland)