The outcome when you govern according to polling data Boiling live lobsters to be banned in Labour crackdown www.telegraph.co.uk/business/202...

⚡️ Azerbaijan's president cites 'busy schedule' to skip Russia summit despite Kremlin expecting his attendance. The Kremlin had earlier signaled it was preparing for Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev's arrival.

Apologies for the pre-Christmas pessimism in this Politico opinion piece. The US aren't going to offer security guarantees that correspond to NATO'S Article 5 and even if the US did, Putin wont believe them. Thats what matters.

⚡️US Senator Graham says Tomahawks should go to Ukraine if Putin rejects peace deal. "If Putin says no, we need to dramatically change the game, including giving Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine to hit the drone and missile factories that exist in Russia," U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham said on Dec. 21.

The EU showed that it works. It not only functions. But at a really high level. It's policy proposals are rigorous. It's leaders are determined to act. And it finds ways hammer out policy agreements, make compromises, squeeze obstacles (or pay them off), to make progress. 7/

Final publication before Christmas for @rusi.bsky.social on the Future of the Euro-Atlantic Security Architecture. Tough one to write given the situation in Europe right now but i think it holds up post US NSS... www.rusi.org/explore-our-...

One EU-UK Reset negotiation tracker, updated for today's Erasmus statement Still quite a lot to be done on the agenda from the May summit PDF with clicky links: bit.ly/UshGraphic141 @ukandeu.bsky.social @oupolitics.bsky.social

Come on EU - its Christmas!

Putin is building a larger, stronger army. Peace in Ukraine will only help him Obviously, we want peace for Ukraine. But, as I discuss in @theipaper.com, there are risks... inews.co.uk/news/world/p...

Goldman Sachs’ economists “expect German GDP growth to rise from 0.3% this year to 1.4% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027. This is significantly above the 0.8% potential rate of growth and the consensus among economists surveyed by Bloomberg.”

Remember a few weeks ago, when Germany took steps to exclude Huawei from 6G infrastructure? Well, now Deutsche Bahn buys electric buses in China. www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/u...

691! More isnt always better. It should be 3: Strategic lift ISR Air to air refuelling. Do those and do them well (and quickly)

For nearly six months, two Ukrainian soldiers were trapped in the same battered position, unable to rotate as Russian drones monitored every path in and out. The Kyiv Independent spoke with the soldiers about surviving attacks, going days without food and water, and finally escaping after 165 days.

MAG, in partnership with @herorats.bsky.social, recently welcomed Peter Wagner, head of the EU Service for Foreign Policy Instruments, & Katarina Mathernova, EU Ambassador to Ukraine, to our operations in Mykolaiv, where they met with demining dog teams on the ground. ➡️ buff.ly/s0rtEc9

⭐️Europe has the tools, we just need to embrace our strength.⭐️ “the US National Security Strategy leaves no ambiguity: Europe must generate its own deterrent mass in the North Atlantic and its surrounding seas” 1/3 www.futurenavy.com/p/atlantic-b...

Are people really only noticing last week’s new US National Security Strategy this morning, or has Trump Inc. already issued another one that’s even worse?

27 years ago to the day, 4 December 1998, France and the UK signed the St Malo Declaration. Its aims are as noble today as they were back in the relative calm of the late 90s. What have we done to truly strengthen European defence since 1998? www.cvce.eu/content/publ...

The Irish Navy had a ship present, but 'made the decision not to shoot down the drones', though the article also notes it the vessel did not have the capacity to disable the drones. A huge reminder that Irish neutrality does not protect it from hybrid attacks.

You will be shocked to discover after reading these stories that while Rachel Reeves claimed to have been the "British girls under-14 [chess] champion" she was in reality merely the "Under 14s British Women’s Chess Association (BWCA) Girls" Champion. This is getting utterly ridiculous now

Ask Hungary to do a first draft?

PERFECT example of some EU civil servants being COMPLETELY UNSERIOUS about security and resilience in Europe: EU Regulation prevents emergency services personnel from wearing ballistic helmets - because why would health care workers need it in war zone? www.youtube.com/clip/UgkxGKm...

I am desperate to find ways to support Ukraine but this will poison international relations for generations, just as happened after 1919. Russia will never pay reparations so Ukraine will never repay the loan and the EU will end up having to write it off - to the disgust of future taxpayers.

You know what? I really don't think it is. Great domestic political posturing, but Labour have no plans to go beyond the 'reset' agenda, certainly none the EU are likely to accept. This will be talk to little if any action.

Here’s a new piece from @rebeccamckee.bsky.social and me on how the Covid Inquiry’s second module missed the opportunity to really dig into how decisions were made in the heart of government www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/covi...

“Europe is losing confidence, sinking into fatalism and justifying its passivity with the soothing thought that it has no real choice, as its cards are weak. Besides, in the long run, things will work out. Just wait for the U.S. midterms.” www.politico.eu/article/euro...

We got the answer now, with Canada and the EU having struck an agreement on SAFE participation: www.politico.eu/article/cana...

"Labour had the chance to reset the shape of the state, of taxation and our relationship to it – and somehow didn't have the confidence to do it." Budget backlash has people asking if Labour has squandered its chance to make any real change to the UK www.thenewsagents.co.uk/article/labo...

The jihadi mastermind who fled MI5 to bring Isis back from the dead www.thetimes.com/article/e71c...

High-profile splits, leftist idealism — and finally, a name. Welcome to Britain’s newest political outfit.

The idea that cable-cutting in the Baltic has stopped because of Baltic Sentry and not for any other reason, and thus that “deterrence is working”, is a logical leap that I sincerely hope is supported by some evidence. www.ft.com/content/dbd9...

“If the government and armed forces manage to improve the perception of the armed forces significantly and motivate young people to start considering military service as a ‘normal’ choice, the goal could be reached with voluntary participation alone.” @alanderminna.bsky.social https://cnn.it/4ilojFe

"Speaking outside his chateau in France" is so on brand for these people - depriving the rest of us our freedom of movement, but making sure they can enjoy the benefits the EU brings!

This strikes me as a particularly misplaced example of American (online) discourse being imported into the UK, where usually 'Christian' is a much less important political category.

There was no state. Who does she think crucified him, an anarchist collective?

No deal better than a bad deal? www.ft.com/content/22db...

100%. The 2025 summit was good for positive messaging, but now it needs deliverables.

'Six MPs and four factions' is an absolutely cracking line

Generation Germany, the new youth wing of the far-right AfD party, was formed after the former youth organization dissolved itself earlier this year in what was widely seen as a tactical maneuver to avert a possible ban.

Russia is conducting an unprecedented campaign of disruption across Europe. NATO allies shouldn’t mirror the Kremlin but pose more strategic dilemmas eg snap exercises, faster collective attribution& using Russian frozen assets.My take for @politico.eu @victorjack.bsky.social @laukaya.bsky.social

France has a new military plan to step up its defenses against Russia — a volunteer program to help power the barracks. 🔗 politi.co/48kNTWi

Europe should give Ukraine the money right now, outright. No ifs, no buts, no loans. It’s the cheapest defence we will ever pay for; a loan will only store up trouble for decades; and it needs to be done with full democracy, making the case to voters to help them understand the threat we face.

@edrusi.bsky.social on the spot: “Ed Arnold from the RUSI think tank in London warned that, if U.S. security guarantees are not firmly pinned down, the coalition is “in a really dangerous position, in that you're deploying a force with a backstop that deep down you know is not credible.”

I am also *very* confused by reports about this guarantee/ the article 5 reference. Simply some comforting phrasing to give Zelenskyy something to sell domestically, but nothing so concrete that Russia couldn't agree on it (just a reference to mirroring)?

In honour of its proponents, I suggest that the Dmitriev-Witkoff proposal should henceforth be called the Dim-Wit Plan

What exactly is a guarantee which 'mirrors' Article 5/an Article 5 style guarantee? NATO is a unique Alliance which cannot credibly be copied.

Five things we learned from the UK Covid-19 Inquiry report on Module II What does the report tell us about governance and decision making by ministers and the civil service during the pandemic? www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/covi...

Can't wait for all the people at the 2024 NATO Washington Summit popping champagne over the 'irreversible path to NATO' line to realise that communiques do not equal policy

Affirmation. That will do

I contributed to this pessimistic assessment & gave evidence (with @edrusi.bsky.social) to the Defence Select Committee's inquiry on the UK's contribution to European security so shouldn't be surprised, but the Committee's report is a dire read. Its main conclusion is UK is not ready defend itself.

The UK is too dependent on the United States for its defense and has not adequately invested in a back-up plan should America pull away from Europe, a damning report by a cross-party group of lawmakers has warned.