Nvidia’s cash conducts the AI orchestra www.reuters.com/commentary/b...

NEW BLOG POST: The Biggest Bargains On Wall Street thefelderreport.com/2026/05/16/t...

this is the last photo on my parents' video birdfeeder before it was mysteriously destroyed we may never know what happened

‘G10 inflation remains well above pre-pandemic levels and central bank targets. The underlying drivers also remain firm.‘ thedailyshot.com/2026/05/12/u...

NEW POST: ‘Gambling Fever Sets In’ thefelderreport.com/2026/04/18/g...

NEW POST: A ‘Suez’ Moment For The U.S.? thefelderreport.com/2026/04/11/a...

‘Investors are assuming that we’re close to the peak of inflation and happy to move on to other worries. Not so fast. Modern history suggests that monthly surges in inflation are often the start of something broader.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

NEW POST: Is The AI Gold Rush Running Out Of Ore? thefelderreport.com/2026/04/04/i...

“The biggest issue we are now having is not a compute glut, but it’s power... In fact, that is my problem today. It’s not a supply issue of chips; it’s actually the fact that I don’t have warm shells to plug into." www.tomshardware.com/tech-industr...

New Substack: open.substack.com/pub/keubiko/...

Baturday Bat World Sanctuary

Nvidia results always trigger a high alert day for Law of Large Numbers usage violations. LoLN doesn't describe the difficulty of an already huge value to continue growing quickly. Yes, "everyone" uses it in this way. Yes, Investopedia capitulated and blessed this misuse. Doesn't make it right.

Which creative writing project will tank the stock market today? Anyone got an early draft they want us to look at?

Victory or defeat

‘While markets are focused on the risk of disintermediation, the more immediate story is one of inflation, as AI capex drives scarcity in AI commodities and data center build out lifts construction hiring.’ www.citadelsecurities.com/news-and-ins...

I remain confused about what the market thinks is best for $NLFX - win or lose the the WBD war? anyway low tick since Oct '24 today

"Despite its year-to-date losses the S&P 500® Top 10 Index, with heavy exposure to Big Tech, is seeing a surprising decline in realized volatility, driven by a steady drop in correlations and rising dispersion among mega-caps." -S&P Global Vörös

History of western consensus macro econ thought through an FX lens. A reminder about what felt so certain, but didn't turn out (Japan beating out the US) and what felt so uncertain that seems almost laughable today (that the Soviet economy could beat the US).

Poof… and it’s gone.

NEW POST: ‘Revenge Of The Dinosaurs’ thefelderreport.com/2026/02/14/r...

A Valentine’s Day cartoon for @newscientist.com

As I go through my charts it's amazing how many tech stocks have given back the entire rally off the April lows last year.

hold on i gotta take this

‘The problem is that some companies that might otherwise lure a software-industry treasure hunter may have put themselves off-limits. That’s because a buyer would have to pay not just for the company’s listed shares, but for the stock awarded as pay for employees, sometimes in very large amounts.’

‘Gold has been a popular trade for a long time. Tech has been a popular trade too. Then with tech everyone gets spooked by AI, and people need to sell their winners just to raise cash and stay afloat. As they like to say, in a crisis, all correlations go to one.‘ www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...

‘Australia’s export-driven economy stands out as the prime beneficiary of a potential 2000s-style commodity supercycle, with the Aussie dollar this year’s best-performing major currency.’ blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...

Only one who got the ball into the end zone was Bad Bunny

Bad Bunny now has more rushing yards than the New England Patriots

NEW POST: Another Changing Of The Guard thefelderreport.com/2026/02/07/a...

‘The era of tech buybacks has ended.’ www.dailychartbook.com/p/850 via @dailychartbook.bsky.social

Blue Owl, Ares Lead Private Market Firms Bashed by Software Risk www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Eighteen years ago today: @newyorkgiants.bsky.social #SBXLII

NEW POST: ‘There Is No Training For This’ thefelderreport.com/2026/01/31/t...

“Let Sam announce how much he’s going to raise — it’s for him to decide. But we will definitely participate in the next round of financing because it’s such a good investment.” -Jensen Huang www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Veronika is an inspiration to us all.

A reminder that the “weaponise US Treasuries” playbook is outdated: no single foreign entity has meaningful market share, and foreigners are now far less important in government funding. Also (since at least Bagehot’s day), if central banks have one role, it is to act as buyers of last resort.

NEW POST: ‘The Most Powerful Lesson Anyone Can Learn In This Business’ thefelderreport.com/2026/01/17/t...

Is wishful thinking one of AI's blind spots too? Gemini has Davos 2026 over with already...

Also new in v1.114 today: cashtags! Like hashtags, but for stocks. Tag your posts with #$AAPL, #$NVDA, whatever, then tap to see everyone else's equally unqualified analysis!

Wall Street’s start to 2026 has been like the scripted first drive in a football game, the offense in rhythm with a balanced attack to take an early lead. Everyone expects a "run it hot" economy and the market is rushing to price it in. Can it stay this easy? New column, free with email signup.

NEW POST: ‘Where Are The Hated Stocks?’ thefelderreport.com/2026/01/10/w...

“I’m sure there’s a lot of people… who would like me to not tell the world that LLMs basically are a dead end when it comes to superintelligence. But I’m not gonna change my mind because some dude thinks I’m wrong... My integrity as a scientist cannot allow me to do this.” www.ft.com/content/e3c4...

An interview with analyst Benedict Evans on the role of productization in AI adoption, AI bubble, OpenAI, comparing Nvidia to Sun Microsystems, and more (The Circuit on YouTube) Main Link | Techmeme Permalink

‘In 2025, small-dollar day traders and other everyday investors played a bigger role in more markets than ever before. They traded options, sent a new class of meme stocks to the moon and piled into the Mag Seven tech companies when the “smart money” got skittish.‘ www.wsj.com/finance/stoc...

Leaving 2025 like

a neat trick of some "enthusiast media" (fan blogs, influencers, etc.) is that they can spend years making a myth out of, say, their favorite CEO or brand, then turn around and become truthers who then try to undo the myth they caused everyone to believe and make money the WHOLE TIME.

We had a lengthy discussion on the air about his background and current view that the secular bull market is in a late phase, with valuations and macro conditions presenting a challaneging starting point for forward returns. See and read about it here...

Australia Admits All Those Animals Made Up https://theonion.com/australia-admits-all-those-animals-made-up/