“.. Cleveland Fed's expected 5-year inflation is at its highest since July 2007.” - Schwab

‘Premeditated booing of controversial speakers is common but it’s worth paying attention when a speaker’s words—let alone two speakers’ similar words—ignite an unplanned outcry.‘ gizmodo.com/ex-google-ce...

‘There have been notable instances where a “gamma squeeze” was blamed in part for big moves in individual stocks. But seeing the entire market swept up in something like this is, ”abnormal — I haven’t seen anything like this in my entire career.“‘ www.marketwatch.com/story/these-...

‘The popular dispersion trade has mostly shaken off drawdowns in the early days of the Iran war, with single-stock volatility — especially in parts of the tech sector such as semiconductors — far outpacing relatively mild increases in indexes.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Public BDCs Are Pricing In Most Pain Since Covid www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

‘He believes the recent rise of retail investing since the pandemic is among the "great revolutions" in modern market history. He also said the trend has changed the investing landscape permanently, forcing financial institutions to rethink their strategies.’ www.businessinsider.com/etoro-ceo-re...

‘Data-center plans may be scaled back, AI uptake prove slower than hoped, or a political backlash may hinder expansion. All are plausible; none are considered that serious by the AI bulls driving stock prices.’ www.wsj.com/finance/stoc... by @jmackin2.bsky.social

‘Negative AI sentiment could become a financial liability for AI labs if it continues to curb access to their most valuable resource: compute power.‘ www.axios.com/2026/05/17/a...

Gov. bond yields have surged to their highest levels in more than 20 years, driven by: 1) renewed inflationary pressure 2) persistently large government deficits 3) the end of QE 4) investors demanding higher term premiums www.apollo.com/wealth/the-d...

‘The total assets in leveraged single-stock ETFs has surged almost 2x off the Q1 low as rising retail interest in leveraged speculation gets directed into an increasingly narrow list of names.’ www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a... via @topdowncharts.bsky.social

“The most asymmetric trade in modern financial history.” www.marketwatch.com/story/the-mu...

’The study found companies with the highest gains were those using AI as a form of “people amplification,” implementing the technology to make workers more productive rather than outright replacing them.‘ fortune.com/2026/05/11/a...

‘It’s the Sex Panther joke from Anchorman, except it’s a chart that gets written up in major newspapers and bandied about as proof of AI models becoming conscious.’ www.wheresyoured.at/premium-what...

‘The study, which was used by EY consultants in Canada to market their cyber security business, used made-up data, mis-attributed citations and referenced a McKinsey report that does not exist, online researchers discovered.‘ www.ft.com/content/a61c...

“Dirty Sharpe for NDX hit the highest level ever this week. A high dirty Sharpe ratio indicates the index is moving steadily upward with very small pullbacks or drawdowns ... Talk about an insane level of (false) security now.” www.dailychartbook.com/p/overbought...

“Only 24% of S&P 500 members outperforming the index over the past 3 months ... going back to the 1970s, there are only a handful of other periods with lower %s.” www.dailychartbook.com/p/overbought...

“Projected flows remain heavily skewed to sell if we get a downside catalyst. Large synthetic negative gamma from dealer index options, levered ETF rebalancing, and vol control sit underneath the surface. If that catalyst hits, sell flows can stack fast.” www.dailychartbook.com/p/overbought...

Market Vane Bullish Percentage. Highest since June 1997. (it is the 90s!)

NEW BLOG POST: The Biggest Bargains On Wall Street thefelderreport.com/2026/05/16/t...

“Nvidia claims that its business in China went to 'zero' after April 2025 U.S. trade restrictions. We believe that in reality, over 20% of revenues remained driven by China. Nvidia is now actually losing the business Jensen claimed it lost a year ago.” www.businessinsider.com/nvidia-stock...

AI chip bubble rivals French stocks in 1700s, surpasses Nasdaq during dot-com frenzy by one measure www.cnbc.com/2026/05/15/a...

‘Having too many AI agents, especially multiple agents performing the same tasks, can create a cybersecurity and management problem for corporate information-technology departments, and can drive up computing bills.’ www.wsj.com/cio-journal/...

‘Higher interest rates aren’t the right response to a temporary blip in energy prices. But this leaves two big questions. First, will there be more such blips? Second, if they do keep on coming, can investors still rely on the Fed to strive for 2% inflation?‘ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

‘Based on data from the past past 100 years, once inflation crosses the 4% threshold, the S&P 500 has fallen 4% on average in the three months that follow, and 7% over a six-month time frame.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

‘We are now entering week 12 of this crisis and Cornerstone is estimating a 14.4MBPD output forfeiture, equal to about 14% of global supply. Based on their model, Brent Crude should be in the $190 range, up from $179 during the 11th week.’ haymaker.substack.com/p/haymaker-d...

“There is still a pervasive belief that this war will end soon, and that once it does, oil prices will retreat. I think that is where the surprise will be: over the next three months, oil prices may continue to hit new highs.” themarket.ch/english/this... via @cgisiger.bsky.social

‘Cerebras’ closing price on Thursday values the company around 134 times its revenue for the past four quarters. That is more than five times Nvidia’s multiple on the same metric.’ www.wsj.com/tech/the-blo...

“There’s just a lot of short attention span money in the market,” says Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at retail broker Charles Schwab. “We’ve definitely crossed into a new era.” www.wsj.com/finance/stoc...

‘The sheer volume of demand, and the increasing complexity and power requirements of AI-related memory needs has turned even previously sleepy low-cost memory-makers, like Western Digital, from horizontal lines into vertical ones.’ www.a16z.news/p/charts-of-...

‘Services for the elderly and persons with disabilities, employment change Q3‘22 to Q3‘25‘ www.a16z.news/p/charts-of-...

‘The point to take from the RASI failing just below +500 is that the breadth data are telling us the rally is fizzling and it is appearing just as the market is transitioning into the bearish period of annual seasonality lasting from May to October.‘ www.mcoscillator.com/learning_cen...

’The rise in import prices was largely driven by a significant spike in imported computer parts, pointing to further upward pressure on core inflation from electronics prices.’ thedailyshot.com/2026/05/15/g...

‘May 13 triggered simultaneous Hindenburg Omens on both the NYSE and Nasdaq for just the 19th time.’ www.dailychartbook.com/p/one-of-the...

“Gross and net allocations to Info Tech, as a percentage of the total US Prime book, are now sitting at or near five-year highs, ranking in the 100th and 99th percentiles, respectively.” www.dailychartbook.com/p/one-of-the...

“Margin balances at several retail brokers has surged.” www.dailychartbook.com/p/one-of-the...

Did the Fed test start early?? Powell exits today, Warsh hits the ground running Monday. Yields up ~50bps in 3 months after the start of a Fed chair term. BofA Hartnett

‘On an inflation-adjusted annualized basis, 6 previous inflation regimes saw commodities return 11% annually while the S&P 500 fell 6% and the U.S. 10-year Treasury retuned negative 5%. The big outlier this time is the stock market.‘ www.marketwatch.com/story/a-look...

‘Concertgoers have a new term for tours that appear to be struggling to sell tickets: “blue dot fever,” named for the blue clusters that indicate empty seats on venue ticketing maps.’ www.sfchronicle.com/entertainmen...

‘Customers have approached NV Energy for more than 22,000MW of potential load, with about 6,000MW already under agreement. That committed amount is more than 40X Liberty’s peak demand in Tahoe, showing how quickly data centers can overwhelm smaller communities.‘ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

‘One of the telltale signs of an asset price bubble is high margin debt among institutional and retail investors. Check. FINRA reported that margin debt provided by broker-dealers hit $1.3 trillion for the first time in April, up 53% from a year ago.’ sakonnetresearch.com/margin-debt-...

‘Due to the differences in tax-related and GAAP calculations, corp. income tax collections have fallen sharply even as reported earnings have been ripping. But there is no free lunch. In the next few years, GAAP profits will experience a powerful negative drag.‘ haymaker.substack.com/p/haymaker-d...

AI trade accounts for over half of S&P 500 weight - JPM h/t @lhamtil

‘The government is benefiting from the elevated and above-target inflation we’ve seen in recent years. When the real interest rate is below zero, it represents a subsidy to the sovereign.‘ blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...

“Nvidia handing customers money to buy their products doesn’t make sense. That's not the way that business works, unless you’re in a position where that’s the only way to keep it going. The ecosystem right now is all being subsidized in a whole lot of ways.“ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

1999 is calling.

‘The current pattern has happened only a handful of times in recent decades, notably just before the “Volmageddon” selloff in early 2018 and around the start of the software stock selloff late last year.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

‘Non-traded private credit funds handed more money back to investors than they raised in Q1 — the first time outflows from the vehicles have surpassed inflows. Non-listed BDCs gave back about $7 billion over the period, while raising about $5 billion.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

‘In NABE’s quarterly survey, only 13% see margins expanding from here, a sharp drop from 26% in January. Alternatively, 31% see margins shrinking, bringing that portion of the survey’s Net Rising Index to minus 18 — the lowest since the beginning of the pandemic.‘ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

‘Central banks’ purchases of gold should be viewed as a symptom of deglobalization. They signal the advent of a more geopolitically fragmented world in which cross-border transactions of all kinds are poised to become more difficult and costly.’ www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/r...

‘This latest rally has been associated with an alarming drop in the trailing 12-month new/old era stock price correlation suggesting it may not be sustainable.’ open.substack.com/pub/paulsenp... by @jimwpaulsen.bsky.social