Nvidia $NVDA now worth more than India 🇮🇳

’Credit spreads have tightened even as Business Development Corps‘ (BDCs) discount to NAV has grown.’ www.yesigiveafig.com/p/yes-i-vote...

‘There is a quiet but growing frenzy underway in the exchange traded fund industry, with 2025 already setting new records thanks to surging ETF launches.‘ www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-s-a... by @topdowncharts.bsky.social

NEW POST: The Perils Presented By An Increasing Passive Share Of The Stock Market thefelderreport.com/2025/09/20/t...

“Gold equaled 9.9% of US disposable income per capita at its 1980 peak. Today it’s only 5.6%. To match that historical peak, gold would need to rise to about $6,600/oz.“ www.dailychartbook.com/p/763 via @dailychartbook.bsky.social

‘As skepticism rises about the financial return of AI, some investors are looking at the performance of data centers as an early indicator of emerging headwinds. “I start to see the beginning of some kind of bubble,” Joe Tsai said in March of the data center market.‘ www.nytimes.com/2025/09/20/b...

Hey all, quick question: is it good that mark zuckerberg’s answer to “are we in a bubble” was “yeah, maybe, but don’t worry, it’s just like the dot com boom,” a point easily-disproved? Isn’t he meant to be the guy who has a real answer? Is this good? Hello?! www.wheresyoured.at/how-to-argue...

‘Google offers a tool that enables observing employee strife first hand: Google Trends reveal “a largely unfiltered sample of actual search requests made to Google.” The samples below paint a bleak picture.’ www.myrmikan.com/pub/Myrmikan...

"It’s fair to say that you’ve never been paid less to take risk. It’s not like this is specific to any particular asset class. Every price seems to be indicating perfection." www.ft.com/content/02b4...

'Perhaps the most troubling thing about Nvidia’s investment in Intel is that it is totally in line with the free-spending financial zeitgeist. Tech companies are allocating escalating amounts to capital expenditure, and investors are largely uncritical.' www.ft.com/content/863a...

'A recent analysis of Alphabet, Amazon and Meta by Barclays, a bank, estimated that higher depreciation costs would shave 5-10% from their earnings per share. Apply this logic to the entire ai big five and the potential overall hit to the bottom line is huge.' www.economist.com/business/202...

'NVIDIA operates as the supplier, customer and investor of every major Neocloud. This is extremely strange, and smacks of the kind of desperate moves that a company makes when it doesn't believe there will be enough future customers to sustain its growth.' www.wheresyoured.at/is-there-any...

Retail traders’ favorite stocks are on a record winning streak sherwood.news/markets/reta...

'The Magnificent Seven’s pace of gains already places the group in league with history’s great blow-offs.' www.cnbc.com/2025/09/19/h...

“It generates returns below its cost of capital, destroying rather than creating shareholder value.” www.businessinsider.com/coreweave-st...

‘Investors pulled out a net $43.19 billion from U.S. equity funds in the week, logging their largest weekly net sales since a $50.62 billion weekly outflow in mid-December 2024.’ www.reuters.com/business/us-...

$LEN: "Even though mortgage rates have edged down...stronger sales have not yet followed."

“No matter how many warnings are issued or how many laws are written, people will find new ways to believe that the good times can last forever.” www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

‘Given the significant investment by hyperscalers, “if those aren’t translated into revenues, you could see the market start to reconsider the earnings growth of some of these companies at these valuations.”’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

‘There’s never been a gamble like OpenAI.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

“I don’t think passive investments create volatility. But they might create these long-term — I don’t know if we should call them bubbles — upward trends that persist and give people a sense that it is going to last for ever.“ www.ft.com/content/6f54...

Up until COVID, US interest rates had been trending down for many decades. That flattered debt sustainability, because - even with increasingly wide deficits - we were constantly rolling high coupon debt into low coupon debt. That now goes into reverse... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/fiscal-ris...

If you invested $10,000 in Intel $INTC at the peak of the Dot Com Bubble, you now have $7,275 (dividends included) 🚨 Congrats!! 🫡

"I still think a 25% type weighting in gold is not excessive. I think that is an insurance policy. It’s in a winning mode because of the weaker dollar and I believe that’s going to continue." www.cnbc.com/2025/09/17/d...

"If 1 per cent of the privately owned US Treasury market were to flow to gold, the gold price would rise to nearly $5,000 per troy ounce." www.ft.com/content/e7b5...

@chrisrugaber.bsky.social asked a good Q in yesterday's Fed press conference--could tariffs be reducing labor demand as companies unable to pass them along thru higher prices to cautious consumers protect margins instead by reducing hiring & labor costs. That seems to be just what CEOs are reporting

‘Comsensus estimates haven’t taken account of the full scale of the AI capex cycle. Underestimating growing depreciation costs makes these Big Tech players look more profitable than they actually are, potentially fueling an AI bubble.’ www.marketwatch.com/story/google...

‘The global aluminium market is “sleepwalking into the biggest deficits in 20 years.”’ www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

‘The IEA expects consumption to grow by 740,000 bpd in 2025 and by an additional 700,000 bpd in 2026. OPEC, meanwhile, sees demand this year growing by 1.3M bpd, with an additional 1.4M bpd next year. That’s a huge difference, one of the widest ever seen.‘ www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

“I think it reflects both that domestic advanced chip manufacturing capacity is no longer such a big constraint for marketing the product and that there's growing confidence U.S. export controls are not really threatening this process anymore.” www.reuters.com/business/med...

‘If the Fed is on track to overshoot inflation for some time, then the FOMC might as well raise their explicit inflation target to 3.0 per cent. Or, better yet, maybe it’s time to get rid of the dual mandate and have the Fed focus on financial stability.‘ www.ft.com/content/0fdb...

‘Commodity inflows are rapidly increasing, a reliable sign of rising prices in the sector. More importantly, it’s also a harbinger of inflation on the threshold of re-accelerating.’ blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...

'Gold's 40% surge this year has rewarded investors handsomely, but the record highs could also be interpreted as a warning. Firstly, against the waning of fiscal and monetary discipline and secondly; against the quiet embrace of chronic inflation as policy.' www.man.com/insights/vie...

‘By not dissenting, Waller and Bowman showed they may not be willing to play the role of obedient political stooges. Like Holmes' dog that didn't bark, that's very significant. For those who value central-banking independence, it was a good day.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

CONFERENCE BOARD: “.. Widespread weakness among the LEI’s components and a negative growth rate over the past six months triggered the recession signal in August.” @mikezaccardi.bsky.social

‘Anthropic PBC’s premium prices for its AI tools may not be sustainable in the long run because of increasing competition, according to a report by JPMorgan that initiated analyst coverage of the company.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

‘Already, Oracle’s free cash flow in fiscal 2025 was negative for the first time in over a decade. That leaves borrowing to fund the buildout, which will be tough. As it is, Oracle is on the hook for over $110B in debt and only about $10B in cash on hand.‘ www.theinformation.com/articles/mag...

‘Both the Cass Shipments and Expenditures indices have their 12ROCs back down below zero, which is where they typically hang out during bear markets for the SP500.’ www.mcoscillator.com/learning_cen...

AI Has Moved From a Niche Sector to the Primary Driver of All VC Investment www.apolloacademy.com/ai-has-moved...

“Buybacks (normalized by S&P 500 market cap) have been declining since the February peak.” www.dailychartbook.com/p/761 via @dailychartbook.bsky.social @mikezaccardi.bsky.social

Yesterday's ETF put/call ratio was 1.95, the highest since it was 1.93 on April 4th.

Seriously, look at the duration line here (for BB-B index) - we've seen over a year-and-a-half of reduction in weighted-average duration. That's...not something you see very often.

“The fundamental challenge with a K-shaped economy is that for those at the top, you would hike rates sharply — while for those at the bottom, you would lower them dramatically" My thoughts in @byHeatherLong's latest column: www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

so many dead canaries and we just keep on mining

TS LOMBARD: “.. When we look at the 2Y 1Y forward jumping 50BP .., perhaps it is concern that Miran’s outlier views move to the center and, in response, inflation rather than employment will be the bigger problem sooner rather than later. Not sure this was the market reaction the FOMC wanted ..”

Here comes subprime auto-loan delinquencies. 👀 (via Arbor Data)!

“.. the worst year for US consumer credit quality since the global financial crisis ..” 👀 @bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

“Electricity prices are some of the fastest-growing price increases among the basket of goods. That makes for a political storm.” www.ft.com/content/4e19...

“Foreigners may have returned to buying US assets, but they don’t want the dollar exposure that goes with it,” said Deutsche Bank strategist George Saravelos, adding those investors were “removing dollar exposure at an unprecedented pace.” www.ft.com/content/2a5d...

“Our importers are talking about 10% to 20% increases on the bags that we’re purchasing now—but they’re also telling us it could be as high as 40% to 50%, depending on the coffee they’re buying and the tariffs.” www.wsj.com/opinion/a-ta...