‘The research results counter the prevailing view that the stock market is so efficient that it almost immediately reflects anything reported in the financial news. The new study suggests that this longstanding belief is wrong.’ www.marketwatch.com/story/when-i...

‘Wall Street’s expectations for company profit growth are rising at the fastest pace since the post-pandemic rebound, fuelling concern that an “earnings bubble” could be forming in the estimates that have underpinned the US stock market’s rally.‘ www.ft.com/content/1d3d...

‘The Silicon Data LLM Token Expenditure Index is down almost 20% from a high in May, flashing a warning that AI companies may be losing pricing power with increasingly cost-sensitive customers and that expectations for an eventual AI bonanza could prove misplaced.‘ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

When the Fed does QE, the QT that follows is invariably smaller and shorter than QE. That's because we don't have the stomach for higher yields and higher volatility this would imply. We've shown - over and over - we can't handle a smaller balance sheet... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/can-the-fe...

As we celebrate America's 250th anniversary, just a reminder that with widely shared feelings of extreme powerless and uncertainty comes revolutionary change. Declarations of independence are the resulting inevitable combination of the first and last of the 5Fs.

The Insiders finally woke up. With an awful lot of selling.

‘Daily oil derivative trading volumes are up to 60 times physical oil trades. The spot price of oil is a function of the derivative not the other way around.‘ www.ft.com/content/94f2...

“If we correct for the earnings bubble, the current CAPE would be 67.6x or 4.6 standard deviations above trend, a bubble that surpasses anything ever seen in US history by an extreme margin.” www.ft.com/content/8e93...

‘Decades of economic expansion benefited from adding more workers, and that has ended. Everything now hinges on productivity growth.’ paulkedrosky.com/ai-immigrati... by @paulkedrosky.com

“This data very clearly says that Momentum and, by extension, the 'chips and shovels' part of the AI trade has run too far, too fast.” www.dailychartbook.com/p/wait-for-e...

'Blackstone's QTS is walking away from plans to build its portion of a 2,100-acre data center campus. Already, Compass Datacenters had pulled out in May. The U-turns by both firms amount to one of the most dramatic retreats by developers from a data center project.' www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Mark Zuckerberg in January: "We're starting to see projects that used to require big teams now be accomplished by a single very talented person." Mark Zuckerberg in July: www.reuters.com/business/zuc...

‘AI and hyperscaler issuance could reach US$465B this year, potentially accounting for nearly 20% of total issuance. For context, internet and tech issuance at the peak of the dot-com era averaged 14.5% of total issuance across 2000 and 2001.’ www.man.com/insights/vie...

META CEO ZUCKERBERG REVEALS IN INTERNAL TOWN HALL THAT AI AGENT DEVELOPMENT OVER LAST FOUR MONTHS HAS NOT ACCELERATED AS ANTICIPATED

“.. The next day, Trump posted that it was a ‘GREAT TIME TO BUY!!!’ before announcing a partial tariff retreat that helped send the S&P 500 up roughly 9.5% in one of its best days on record.” @cnbc.com www.cnbc.com/2026/07/02/t...

‘The majority of publicly traded BDCs — the visible part of the private credit market — have turned unprofitable due to falling asset values and ​rising costs in the latest sign of pressure building in this highly leveraged corner of finance.‘ www.reuters.com/legal/transa...

‘Both companies "failed to bring to market an AI model that drove huge customer traction," Schechter said. "Being able to monetize their compute after a missed training run shows how compute can function more like a commodity."’ www.cnbc.com/2026/07/02/m...

*BLACKSTONE’S QTS ABANDONS MASSIVE DATA CENTER IN VIRGINIA

‘There is a tendency to point to large money-fund balances as a sign of strength, a sort of repository of “dry powder” available for deployment in the stock market. That’s pretty misleading though.’ blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...

‘To make lenders more comfortable, the Japanese technology investor is offering to guarantee repayment of the loan, giving banks recourse to SoftBank if the OpenAI shares pledged as collateral lose value.’ www.reuters.com/legal/transa...

gerstner talking about trump accounts for kids shows how asset based the economy has become. instead of greater access to healthcare, more affordable housing, jobs training, raising min wages they want to create more bids for the nasdaq

‘While SpaceX has the rating cos’ stamp of quality, the market grades its bonds closer to junk. What this tells you is the biggest, most sophisticated investors in the world see a harder road to success than Musk touts and demand to be compensated accordingly.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

‘Why would successful companies and intelligent executives make decisions that, in any other context, they’d reject out of hand? They’re swept up in a fad. We’ve seen managerial fads before.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

‘Record leverage is sweeping through the financial system, exposing hedge funds, banks, retail traders and money market funds to potential mounting losses.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

‘The cost of call options on technology stocks is sitting at the highest level since 2007 relative to the S&P 500 Index as traders go all-in on the Nasdaq 100 bull case.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

“It’s very bad for Nebius and CoreWeave because Meta has gone from a buyer of compute — more than half of Nebius’s backlog is Meta, more than a third of CoreWeave’s backlog is Meta — to a seller of compute.” www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

“Today’s pricing suggests markets are not fully discounting the tail risk that a narrow, debt-funded AI boom could morph into a systemic credit event.” www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

‘So great is this constant drumbeat of buying on up days and selling on down days that the ETF has begun to move the stock rather than simply track it. It’s a phenomenon popping up more and more across the globe as investors rush to turbocharge bets on the AI boom.‘ www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...

‘Historically, the total forward 1-month average annualized S&P 500 return has been almost 4 times less when this caution signal is flashing red as it is today compared to the rest of the time since 1963.’ paulsenperspectives.substack.com/p/risk-avers... by @jimwpaulsen.bsky.social

‘The world’s most valuable firm is increasingly leaning on its financial position to become a kind of central bank to the hundreds of companies that buy its chips in bulk.’ www.theinformation.com/articles/nvi...

‘Total US crude oil inventories, including both commercial and SPR stocks, have fallen to the lowest level since 1984.’ thedailyshot.com/2026/07/02/t...

“Energy remains the most defensive sector, with the one-year correlation with the S&P 500 turning negative and reaching a record low in June.” www.dailychartbook.com/p/equity-inf...

That’s a record eight straight sessions of the S&P 500 and its advance-decline line going in different directions

'This is an extraordinary shift from the tangible (homes, factories, power grids) to the intangible (computers, chips, software). The problem is returns to the latter flow to a shrinking share while the majority interact every day with the former.' blog.epbresearch.com/p/build-less...

Almost all of the Nasdaq-100’s gains in the first half of 2026 came from just 10 stocks www.marketwatch.com/story/almost...

’The SPX jumped 1.17% on Monday and another 0.79% yesterday, but breadth was negative on both days. In data going back to early 1997, this is the first time that the SPX has rallied at least 0.50% with negative breadth on consecutive days.’ blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...

”Some of our customers [OpenAI] may be highly leveraged and subject to their own operating and regulatory risks and even if our credit review and analysis mechanisms work properly we may experience risks of non-payment in our dealings with such parties.” www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...

“Following the SOX-Mag 7 correlation bottom in September 2021, the Mag 7 cap-weighted index peaked in November 2021 and the SOX index in December 2021.” www.marketwatch.com/story/semico...

“What worries me the most is there’s leverage by the borrowers and there’s leverage by the investors. The leverage on both sides is very worrisome for financial stability.” www.wsj.com/tech/ai/the-...

‘On the campaign trail, Kiros argued that DeGette had become part of the party’s out-of-touch establishment and accepted corporate donations while not doing enough to support the working class.’ www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...

‘Conventional wisdom holds that the current bull market is all about AI. But if investors' gains are down to a "large deficit model", ​rather than large language models, it means the boom is vulnerable to any tightening of Uncle Sam's budget.’ www.reuters.com/commentary/b...

‘The key lesson from the end of the dotcom bubble is that the main risk will probably come from deterioration in the cash flow of the AI sector’s prospective customers.’ www.ft.com/content/19fa... by @ianrharnett.bsky.social

AOL Owner to Go Public at Over $18 Billion Valuation www.wsj.com/finance/stoc...

‘Investment bubbles sow the seeds of their own destruction if they attract more capital than they can productively use, and starve other areas that need it. That point might be approaching.‘ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... by @johnauthers.bsky.social

‘Through decades of peace, the Dolphin Mine sat neglected. Its revival now is the harbinger of a different, and more dangerous, era.’ www.bloomberg.com/graphics/202...

‘Meta is developing plans for a cloud infrastructure business, setting up a new vector of competition with industry leaders like Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud. Elon Musk’s SpaceX recently emerged as a key player in this space, as well.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

‘The recent dollar appreciation has been driven by rising nominal bond spreads against G7 peers, while real yield differentials have moved in the opposite direction.’ thedailyshot.com/2026/07/01/c...

‘Chip stocks had the best quarter on record.’ thedailyshot.com/2026/07/01/c...

‘Alternative, high-frequency data from private sector sources have declined by 4%–5% since February, painting a picture of a weaker labor market than the official data suggests.‘ thedailyshot.com/2026/07/01/c...

‘By the end of May, 55% of S&P 500 constituents exhibited inverted 1-month call skew, the highest proportion observed in more than a decade as investors increasingly paid a premium for continued upside exposure.’ www.citadelsecurities.com/news-and-ins...