Jesse Felder
@jessefelder.bsky.social
đ€ 19121
đ„ 59
đ 4037
Founder and editor of The Felder Report:
https://thefelderreport.com
pinned post!
NEW POST: Another Changing Of The Guard
thefelderreport.com/2026/02/07/a...
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Another Changing Of The Guard
Below are some of the most interesting things I came across this week. Click here to subscribe to our free weekly newsletter and get this post delivered to your inbox each Saturday morning. STAT Histo...
https://thefelderreport.com/2026/02/07/another-changing-of-the-guard/
2 days ago
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âThe site claims to be a place where people can create an AI agent to perform "a range of actions," such as "trade stocks, automate workflows, execute daily tasks with their calendar, or even update their online dating profile.â The fine print is downright scary.â
www.pcmag.com/news/i-signe...
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I Signed Up for AI.com After Seeing the Super Bowl Ad, and Instantly Regretted It
The site will eventually create personal AI agents for you. But it takes no responsibility for anything your agents do, even if they commit crimes. The fine print is downright scary.
https://www.pcmag.com/news/i-signed-up-for-aicom-then-i-read-its-alarming-privacy-policy
2 minutes ago
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âThe landscape has shifted as the biggest companies in the market started opt to spend their money on AI. And so companies themselves are no longer acting as volatility dampeners.â
www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
@tracyalloway.bsky.social
14 minutes ago
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âThe AI Bowl, as some are calling it, appeared to overshadow the Seahawksâ victory. The torrent of spending is reminding some of previous years when tech companies tried to capitalize on the Super Bowl limelight. Those efforts didnât end well for the advertisers.â
www.nytimes.com/2026/02/09/b...
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A.I. Blitzes the Big Game
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/09/business/dealbook/super-bowl-ads-ai.html
24 minutes ago
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âGlobal oil markets face increasingly sharp and frequent price shocks as geopolitical tensions, opaque stockpiling and tightening Western sanctions are leaving many traders in the dark.â
www.reuters.com/markets/comm...
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What do oil prices tell us about the market? Not a lot
Global oil markets face increasingly sharp and frequent price shocks as geopolitical tensions, opaque stockpiling and tightening Western sanctions are leaving many traders in the dark.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/what-do-oil-prices-tell-us-about-market-not-lot-2026-02-09/
29 minutes ago
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âSoftware and services stocks' underperformance against the S&P 500 has reached near-record proportions, with the sector lagging the benchmark by nearly 24 percentage points over the past three months, nearly the worst such gap in data going back three decades.â
www.reuters.com/business/med...
33 minutes ago
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As AI enters the operating room, reports arise of botched surgeries and misidentified body parts
www.reuters.com/investigatio...
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As AI enters the operating room, reports arise of botched surgeries and misidentified body parts
Medical device makers have been rushing to add AI to their products. While proponents say the new technology will revolutionize medicine, regulators are receiving a rising number of claims of patient ...
https://www.reuters.com/investigations/ai-enters-operating-room-reports-arise-botched-surgeries-misidentified-body-2026-02-09/
35 minutes ago
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'Analysts at BNP Paribas said that free cash flows at Oracle, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta were starting to âplummet toward negative territoryâ, with only Microsoft appearing âmore resilient, at least for nowâ.â
www.ft.com/content/d503...
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Big Tech groups race to fund unprecedented $660bn AI spending spree
Executives face choice between cutting returns to shareholders, raiding reserves or tapping the markets
https://www.ft.com/content/d503afd5-1012-40f0-8f9d-620dcb39a9a2
about 1 hour ago
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âWarsh is âtruthilyâ right about one thing: America has become dangerously reliant on the âFed putâ. If Warsh now takes a soft money approach then we will know he is simply âtruthyâ, rather than principled.â
www.ft.com/content/94c3...
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No easy end to easy money
Kevin Warsh wonât be able to fix the Fed without a responsible Congress and president
https://www.ft.com/content/94c3cdf3-a3d2-4771-a04d-7b5c58a91347
about 1 hour ago
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'The belief is starting to ebb. This week has shown us that the supply of âgreater foolsâ that bitcoin relies on is drying up. The fairy tales that have been keeping crypto afloat are turning out to be just that.â
www.ft.com/content/2b03...
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Bitcoin is still about $70,000 too high
The crypto crash is coming â and the landing wonât be pretty
https://www.ft.com/content/2b030926-2012-4446-b22d-e549e10e7086
about 1 hour ago
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âLawyers have gained traction by arguing that the primary cause of psychological suffering for young users stems not from content posted by others but from the algorithms programmed by the companies to prioritize engagement.â
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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Social Networks Face Big Tobacco Moment Over Addiction Claims
Facebook, Google and other tech giants for more than a decade have rejected allegations that they build products deliberately to get kids addicted to social media.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-09/social-networks-face-big-tobacco-moment-over-addiction-claims
about 1 hour ago
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reposted by
Jesse Felder
Carl Quintanilla
about 3 hours ago
Burry comparing Alphabetâs century bond to Motorola. đ
#$GOOGL
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âDue to things like Cowork, Microsoft could see challenges and may need to give Copilot away just to stay relevant â hurting growth and margins in its most profitable Productivity segment. This reality will consume capacity of Azure, limiting beats there too.â
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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Microsoft Hit With Second Downgrade as Melius Warns on AI Risks
Microsoft Corp. shares were downgraded for the second time in less than a week as Wall Street grows increasingly wary about the potential disruption software stocks face from artificial intelligence.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-09/microsoft-hit-with-second-downgrade-as-melius-warns-on-ai-risks
about 3 hours ago
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âHedge funds piled into short positions on US stocks as concerns about disruption to business models from AI reverberated through markets. Notional short selling across single stocks last week was the biggest on record in Goldman Sachs data going back to 2016.â
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
about 3 hours ago
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âInvestors are wary of founders pledging their shares because a drop in the company's shares can trigger demands from lenders for extra collateral, which may lead to the lenders offloading the shares and further dragging the stock price down.â
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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Blue Owl Founders Pledged $1.9 Billion Stake Before Stock Plunge
Blue Owl Capital Inc.âs record-setting stock plunge was triggered by doubts about the firmâs private credit investments. Now, a different form of leverage is threatening to bring more instability to t...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-09/blue-owl-founders-pledged-1-9-billion-stake-before-stock-plunge
about 3 hours ago
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âForeigners now own nearly $70tn in US assets, double the level a decade ago. And in the last year, most of those flows arrived as âhot moneyâ. If the world cuts back on buying America, the impact could dramatically shock US markets.â
www.ft.com/content/b081...
about 3 hours ago
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âChinese regulators have advised financial institutions to rein in their holdings of US Treasuries, citing concerns over concentration risks and market volatility, according to people familiar with the matter.â
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
about 3 hours ago
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âTakaichi is charismatic and forceful. Comparisons to Margaret Thatcher are apt, but Britainâs Iron Lady never won a mandate this emphatic.â
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...
by
@johnauthers.bsky.social
about 3 hours ago
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âRetail investors have piled almost half a billion dollars into bets on silver in the past week even as the metalâs price has cascaded, almost wiping out its extraordinary gains at the start of the year.â
www.ft.com/content/3183...
about 3 hours ago
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"So you aggregate the Mag7... you're talking like 20-30% of the overall S&P 500 buyback. So that's a huge point because... buybacks are like 7-8x the largest source of demand for equities over the past 15 years." -Charlie McElligott
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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Lots More With Charlie McElligott on This Week's SaaSpocalypse
A terrible few days for software, crypto, and more.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-06/nomura-s-charlie-mcelligott-on-the-market-chaos-of-this-week?srnd=phx-oddlots
about 22 hours ago
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reposted by
Jesse Felder
Nick Timiraos
1 day ago
Trump picked a Fed chair he thinks he can count on. Three presidents thought the same thing. None got what they expected. The ghosts of Burns, Miller, and Martin (not to mention Powell) loom over Trumpâs choice of Kevin Warsh.
www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
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These Presidents Found Out How Trying to Control the Fed Chair Can Backfire
President Trump thinks his new chair can deliver low interest rates. Three presidents in the past learned otherwise.
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/these-presidents-found-out-how-trying-to-control-the-fed-chair-can-backfire-2142c6e6?st=uk5wEh&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
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reposted by
Jesse Felder
Carl Quintanilla
1 day ago
â.. a simple chart of large cap US energy companies. In the words of a client who has been-there-and-done-that, weâre moving into the ârevenge of the dinosaursâ phase of the game now.â - GS desk
#$XLE
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âIn the past hundred years, whenever a currencyâs value fell significantly vs. gold (in other words, it took more currency to buy gold, or âthe gold price went upâ), signs of âmonetary inflationâ erupted soon afterwards. This is what happened in 1973.â
www.forbes.com/sites/nathan...
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Here Comes $10 Gasoline
Retail gasoline prices could rise to $10, just as we warned in our 2022 book Inflation.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanlewis/2026/02/06/here-comes-10-gasoline/
1 day ago
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âBig techâs dramatic ramp-up in projected capex this year will all but wipe out free cash flow for Amazon, Google and Meta Platforms. That will force some of those companies to make some difficult choices such as whether to end stock buybacks or borrow more.â
www.theinformation.com/articles/cap...
2 days ago
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reposted by
Jesse Felder
Willie Delwiche
2 days ago
The paradigm has shifted. Time to update your priors.
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NEW POST: Another Changing Of The Guard
thefelderreport.com/2026/02/07/a...
loading . . .
Another Changing Of The Guard
Below are some of the most interesting things I came across this week. Click here to subscribe to our free weekly newsletter and get this post delivered to your inbox each Saturday morning. STAT Histo...
https://thefelderreport.com/2026/02/07/another-changing-of-the-guard/
2 days ago
1
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âNatural gas has grown extremely volatile as US liquefied natural gas exports and the artificial intelligence boom supercharge demand.â
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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ââThe Two Minutes That Made Traders Lose Faith in the Gas Market
From an erroneous trading halt to speculation about âbanging the close,â the US gas market is showing signs of strain
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-07/natural-gas-traders-fume-after-nymex-glitch-triggers-market-chaos
2 days ago
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âA similar pattern emerged in 2000. After Tech peaked in March of that year, Consumer Staples, Utilities, and Healthcare rallied about 40% to 45%, even as Tech and Communications slumped 51.8% and 39.4%, respectively.â
www.barrons.com/articles/tec...
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A Tech Bust Gave Way to a Broader Rally. What Comes Next Could Be Ugly.
Well before the past weekâs gyrations, the stock marketâs character already had undergone a significant transformation, one that resembled what followed the dot-com boom at the end of the last century...
https://www.barrons.com/articles/tech-bust-broader-rally-crypto-silver-fde38403
2 days ago
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âBig Techâs AI push is bigger than the railroad expansion of the 1850s, the Apollo space program that put astronauts on the moon in the 1960s and the decadeslong build-out of the U.S. interstate highway system that ended in the 1970s.â
www.wsj.com/tech/ai/ai-s...
2 days ago
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âThe era of tech buybacks has ended.â
www.dailychartbook.com/p/850
via
@dailychartbook.bsky.social
2 days ago
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âThe Mag Seven topped out vs the energy sector in December of 2025, at the same level it did back in October of 2020, when
#$XLE
bottomed and ran 250% over the next two years.â
www.dailychartbook.com/p/850
via
@dailychartbook.bsky.social
2 days ago
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âEnergy funds see 2nd biggest weekly inflow ever.â
www.dailychartbook.com/p/850
via
@dailychartbook.bsky.social
2 days ago
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'Across three AI companies where we have data (Anthropic, Minimax and
Z.ai
), compute accounts for more than salaries, marketing, and all other spending combined. Across all three, expenses were 2-3x larger than revenues.'
epochai.substack.com/p/in-both-ch...
3 days ago
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'The AI capex spending multiple has collapsed and gone negative.'
paulkedrosky.com/chart-of-the...
3 days ago
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âSolid tech earnings mask a more concerning trend emerging: returns on invested capital among hyperscalers are starting to decline.â
blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...
3 days ago
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âThe job-opening rate for finance workers reached 2% in December, the lowest since the survey began 15 years ago. In professional and business services, openings were at the lowest since April 2020, the early days of the pandemic.â
blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...
3 days ago
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reposted by
Jesse Felder
Elliott Wave International
3 days ago
A widening gap between the VIX and individual S&P 500 stock volatility suggests stress may be spreading stock-by-stock, not just at the indexâappearing near Nasdaq 100 highs. We break down what it could mean in the February Financial Forecast.
tinyurl.com/44w5tbzs
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âBuybacks have been a major source of equity demand in recent years. But now, the landscape has shifted again as the biggest companies in the market started opt to spend their money on AI. And so companies themselves are no longer acting as volatility dampeners.â
www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
3 days ago
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'It is important to keep in mind that the precious metals mania is just one extreme area of excess in the financial system. In cryptocurrency, private capital and indeed the current AI-fuelled stock market boom, periods of spectacular gains should act as red flags.â
www.ft.com/content/0397...
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The cautionary tale of gold and silver
Precious metals mania is just one area of excess in the financial system
https://www.ft.com/content/039757dd-10fc-4acc-a569-4f28bad943a8
3 days ago
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"Higher capex telegraphs that it may take longer for AI strategies to play out. Not welcome news for investors that are already fixated on when AI-related revenue will start to show up.â
www.ft.com/content/0e7f...
3 days ago
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reposted by
Jesse Felder
Carl Quintanilla
3 days ago
B of A: â.. THIS IS ONE OF THE BIGGEST INFRASTRUCTURE/INVESTMENT THEMES OF OUR LIFETIME. Inflation adjusted.â
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âBernie Sanders and Ron DeSantis donât agree on much but the data-center boom is a rare exception. Vermontâs Democratic Socialist senator and Floridaâs right-wing governor want to slam the brakes on the hundreds of new AI facilities springing up across the country.â
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
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AI Has Turned Bernie and DeSantis Into Unlikely Allies
Bernie Sanders and Ron DeSantis donât agree on much, but the data-center boom is a rare exception. Vermontâs Democratic Socialist senator and Floridaâs right-wing governor want to slam the brakes on t...
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-02-06/data-center-backlash-offers-a-populist-opportunity-for-desantis-sanders
3 days ago
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âFor DATs with no revenue, no operating business, and no way to exit their treasury positions without destroying the market for those positions, the drawdown is existential. We call this the Hotel California trade: You can check in, but you canât check out.â
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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Crypto-Hoarding Firms Pose Fresh Threat to Market After Selloff
Crypto-hoarding treasury companies, which helped turbocharge a digital-asset rally in last yearâs first nine months, are now at risk of sparking market contagion as selling pressure mounts.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-06/crypto-hoarding-firms-pose-fresh-threat-to-market-after-selloff
3 days ago
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âInflation pressures are building, driven by higher wages, higher commodity prices and a weaker dollar.â
www.apolloacademy.com/inflation-ou...
3 days ago
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âThe volume of leveraged loans to software companies considered distressed doubled in January. And the recent examples of private loans held near cost that were marked down dramatically shortly thereafter might have investors in a doubtful frame of mind.â
www.wsj.com/finance/inve...
3 days ago
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âWe are now up to 8 Hindenburg Omen signals over the past six months, which is a pretty high reading.â
www.mcoscillator.com/learning_cen...
3 days ago
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âSoftware makes up 13% of the Morningstar LSTA U.S. Leveraged Loan Index. The sector makes up an even larger percentage of private-credit loans made by asset managers directly to companies, with estimates putting the share at around 20% to a third of those loans.â
www.wsj.com/finance/inve...
3 days ago
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âExpressed in ounces of gold, the price of oil is near a record low.â
thedailyshot.com/2026/02/06/j...
via
@thedailyshot.bsky.social
3 days ago
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'A weaker dollar will reduce the weight of American assets in global indices, forcing benchmark-hugging investors to sell them. That will further weaken the greenback, feeding a vicious cycle.'
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
4 days ago
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âAltmanâs frustration perfectly illustrates how AI companies have driven themselves into a corner. Either they can charge a hefty monthly fee to cut their losses and reassure investors or scare away users through annoying ads.â
futurism.com/artificial-i...
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Sam Altman Is Spiraling
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman declared on X that he thinks Anthropic's ads are "funny" â before posting a lengthy screed about how they're unfair.
https://futurism.com/artificial-intelligence/sam-altman-anthropic-ads
4 days ago
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âIf there is a danger of financial disruption, it comes from the effect on quant investorsâ portfolios.â
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...
4 days ago
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