Dallas Fed: Using newly available microdata that measure net unauthorized immigration through December 2025, an estimate of breakeven job growth is lower than previously thought and turned *slightly negative* www.dallasfed.org/research/eco...

'"CEO said a thing!" journalism involves parroting the claims of a business leader or executive with absolutely no context, correction, or challenge whatsoever, no matter how elaborate the delusion. Once you start to notice it, you'll notice it's everywhere.' karlbode.com/ceo-said-a-t...

‘One way to think about it is that we’re living in the supply-side version of the pandemic’s demand shock. Scientists were warning us, and we went out to dinner anyway. Then we didn’t for a very long time.’ www.semafor.com/article/03/3...

‘This mismatch between a widening band of consumers and a shrinking supply base means the U.S. natural gas market ​is heading for a potential structural crunch that could trigger bouts of supply stress and price volatility.’ www.reuters.com/business/ene...

'China is a vastly more capable actor than Iran that could use a more sophisticated version of the same economic blackmail in the Taiwan Strait. The US and its allies should start preparing accordingly.‘ www.ft.com/content/9372...

‘About a half-dozen institutional investors are looking to sell about $600 million of OpenAI shares. “We literally couldn’t find anyone in our pool of hundreds of institutional investors to take these shares.”’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Traders Pour $977 Million Into Levered Bet That Oil Will Plunge www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

‘Strategy’s average purchase price is around $76,000; with Bitcoin nearer $67,000, it is sitting on roughly $7bn of unrealised losses. Add to that the heavy insider selling — $570mn in 2024 — and the picture for equity holders is hardly reassuring.’ www.ft.com/content/f301...

Reality check: Core retail sales surprised on the upside in February, but were revised down by a total of 0.2% for December and January. Goldman estimates that core sales fell 1.3% annualized in the three months to February in real terms. And was all before the oil shock.

This is a classic panic. We see this over and over in commodity markets. When this cycle turns, current LTA buyers will be locked into contracts written at the top while spot prices fall underneath them. That's how such panic-buying almost always ends.‘ paulkedrosky.com/buyer-panic-...

‘For Paladone, an Amazon seller with around $20-$30M in annual sales, Amazon’s new form of chatbot ads have only driven 88 clicks since the beginning of the year, compared to 500,000 clicks from all of its Amazon ads in the same time period.’ www.theinformation.com/articles/ama...

‘A recent survey of 100 large comoanies found that 77% are now using AI agents but only 4% have secured them. That could turn out very badly for some.‘ www.wsj.com/tech/ai/what...

‘War has driven the DXY dollar index up — by all of 2.6 per cent. That is a remarkably unremarkable performance by the standards of the past couple of years. It looks like the muscle memory that links global crises and dollar buying is fading.‘ www.ft.com/content/a18d... by @katie0martin.ft.com

“.. ISM Manufacturing prices paid continued to surge in March ... new cycle high.” - Schwab

‘The equal-weight index has outperformed the cap-weighted index by the widest margin since 2001 year to date.’ thedailyshot.com/2026/04/01/o... via @thedailyshot.bsky.social

‘The KOSPI’s monthly ​drop of 19% is the largest since 2008 and the won ⁠slumped around 1% to trade weaker than 1,500 to the dollar - levels previously ​broached only in the aftermath of the global financial crisis in 2009 and the ​late 1990s Asian crisis.‘ www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...

Busting the AI Youth Unemployment Myth www.apolloacademy.com/busting-the-...

“Relative to S&P, Energy is up +53% in the last 3 months: This is a new all-time record. March 2022 was the only comparable spike in history.” www.dailychartbook.com/p/huge-infle...

“Major stock indices #$SPY, #$QQQ, #$IWM and #$DIA all gained 2%+ while oil #$USO fell over 1%. Similar setups showed up before major drawdowns in 2008, 2018 and 2022. But 2020 was the exception and markets bottomed just 4 days after first such move.” www.dailychartbook.com/p/huge-infle...

'We don't need the Strait of Hormuz' is the new 'foreigners pay the tariffs.'

www.microsoft.com/en-us/micros... is it good to build an entire economy and software infrastructure on this

Look at the chart below of internet data transmission vs internet capex and realize that the same efficiency gains will occur with LLMs. We may not end up needing to spend trillions of dollars on data centers after all.

‘Buffett downplayed recent market volatility, suggesting current conditions fall far short of past periods that created major buying opportunities: “Three times since I took over, for sure it’s gone down more than 50%... This is nothing to make you get excited.”‘ www.cnbc.com/2026/03/31/w...

‘A real-world framework for the neutral rate shows that inflation risk is becoming further inflamed even as rates have tightened. Stocks and bonds are not pricing this outcome.’ blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...

Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid: Inflation expectations have been low because the central bank has previously acted to make sure inflation will stay low. "It is now our job to follow through with policy actions that validate those expectations."

‘Ratesetters ​are focused on how ⁠the Gulf ​war is affecting ​energy and gas prices, but fertiliser shortages are ​a big ​problem. Historically, food impacts rich ‌nations’ ⁠core inflation 10 times more than energy, and ​takes longer ​to ⁠unwind.’ www.reuters.com/commentary/b...

‘Oxford Economics estimates PIKs now contribute more than 20% of BDCs' net investment income, with half of those in the technology sector, and will spawn more leverage as BDCs borrow to meet their obligations toward debt and dividends.’ www.reuters.com/business/fin...

”Persistently high oil prices could force spending ​revisions in Q1/Q2, bringing a really meaningful correction in equity markets. If the capex numbers get pulled back, if in ​fact energy prices are not reflected in earnings, that could be ​a catalyst.” www.reuters.com/world/china/...

‘Foreign central banks have slashed their holdings of Treasuries at the New York Federal Reserve to the lowest level since 2012, as countries sell the US government bonds to prop up their economies and currencies in the wake of the Iran war.’ www.ft.com/content/1c41...

This is the subprime AI crisis: AI startups spend $3+ for every dollar of revenue to provide AI services, AI labs that provide the models do the same with their subscriptions, and when costs increase or venture capital runs out, things collapse. www.wheresyoured.at/the-subprime-ai-crisis-is-here/

’The Yom Kippur War of 1973 had a worse impact on the US equity market than either of the world wars, but it took a while for markets to grasp that. Even after the embargo was lifted, US stocks had almost 40% further to fall before reaching their 1974 low.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

‘The weight of the energy sector in the S&P 500 remains low.’ thedailyshot.com/2026/03/31/u... via @thedailyshot.bsky.social

The no-hire, no-fire labor market. The private-sector hiring rate fell to 3.3% in February, the lowest since Feb. 2010, when the unemployment rate stood at 9.7%. The layoff rate, however, continues to hold steady at low levels.

‘Over the past 25 years, internet traffic has grown at an annualized pace of 42%, for a cumulative increase of half a million percent. Yet, investment in internet hardware has sagged. Could the same happen to AI-related capex?’ thedailyshot.com/2026/03/31/u...

“77% of S&P 500 energy stocks 52-week highs on Friday-a new cycle peak. Historically, such breadth is rare... The only stronger instances occurred near the onset of one of the longest energy bull markets, spanning October 2004 through September 2005.” www.dailychartbook.com/p/dealer-gam...

‘The “Hateful Eight” — the Mag 7 + Oracle that drove index gains for the past two years — account for 85% of the year-to-date drawdown in the S&P 500, subtracting roughly 576 points. The other ~490 companies collectively added about 100 points.‘ paulkedrosky.com/chart-of-the...

“If the only credit card you can use is Mastercard, and they cut you off, it is very painful. But if you have American Express, Visa, Diners Club and other options, then Mastercard loses its power over you. That is what Europe and China are seeking.” www.scmp.com/economy/chin...

‘The lack of an anchor customer is an issue for any data-center developer. In Fermi’s case, the co. won’t commit new capital to the next phase of Matador construction until it gets more project financing. And it won’t get more financing until it signs a tenant.‘ www.barrons.com/articles/fer...

‘Palo Alto Networks has been a casualty of the ongoing software slump and more recent concerns over looming risks in cybersecurity. But its CEO’s roughly $10 million purchase of company stock is being viewed as a bullish signal.’ www.barrons.com/articles/pal...

‘It's time for Altman and the wider AI community to start contemplating what life might ‌be like without Son's checkbook.‘ www.reuters.com/markets/asia...

“There are cracks in the foundation of the private debt market,” says Alan Schwartz, executive chair of Guggenheim. “Any time you get increased selling in illiquid assets that don’t have transparent valuations, it can cause significant spasms in financial markets.” www.ft.com/content/2143...

‘The obvious analogy is with the 1956 Suez Crisis, when Egypt nationalized the canal and provoked the UK and France into the failed campaign that would end their status as great powers. This suggests Iran has little to lose and much to win from continuing conflict.‘ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

‘In many cases, households have run through the excess savings built up from 2020-21. Retail involvement in the market is probably due to backslide. If so, the Robinhood premium that’s persisted for the past 6 years could quickly turn into a retail discount.‘ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

Me in 2024. Today everybody on Twitter is screaming that Claude is blowing through its limits faster than ever. The subprime AI crisis begins…

Private Credit’s Exposure to Ailing Software Industry Is Bigger Than Advertised www.wsj.com/finance/inve...

‘Resolving the server crunch may require more capital to rent servers on the spot market. That spending could erode the company's gross profit margins, which last year came in lower than the company had projected—precisely because of extra server costs.’ www.theinformation.com/newsletters/...

‘Exporters plan to more than double the country’s liquefaction capacity by 2029. That means global buyers may compete with domestic users of American gas and bid up the price. The shift could change the economics of the 75% of data centers that depend on gas.’ www.theinformation.com/newsletters/...

Powell's big caveat on looking past the energy price shock: "You can have a series of these supply shocks and that can lead the public generally—businesses, price setters, households—to start expecting higher inflation over time. Why wouldn’t they?"

‘The app never took off in the ways its creators imagined—it was more AI slop than AI magic. Usage flatlined by the end of the year. With OpenAI’s purse strings tightening ahead of its IPO, executives began taking a more critical look and didn’t like what they saw.’ www.wsj.com/tech/ai/the-...

‘Each of the 1990, early-2000s, 2009-10, and 2020 recessions were associated with a significant rise in the WRS usually a bit before real GDP growth actually collapsed. Currently, the WRS is pointing to another significant U.S. economic slowdown.’ paulsenperspectives.substack.com/p/walmart-wo...