From TACO to WACO - Will the Ayatollahs Chicken Out? www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

Opinion Newsletter @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist Markets Want to Declare an Off-Ramp and Go Home Without a deal, the best outcome may be for the US to forcibly reopen the Strait. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

Gift Link / Free to Read Opinion | @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist Powell to ’70s: Drop Dead Yes, there’s an oil shock, but fears of stagflation are way premature. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

“We estimate that the current increase in gasoline prices could lead to a 60-basis-point decline in the savings rate, bringing the overall reading to 3.9%, in line with other periods of instability, such as in 1999-2001 and 2005-2008.“ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @johnauthers.bsky.social

Worth reading: www.ft.com/content/86be...

Opinion Newsletter | @johnauthers.bsky.social Columnist Investors Can Handle What’s Happening in Hormuz Earnings forecasts are still holding up share prices despite war’s surprises. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

#war in #Iran Until the attacks started on Feb. 28, there was total #confidence in the #Fed funds futures markets that there would be at least 2x 25bp #cuts this year. Now, that’s down to one, chart @johnauthers.bsky.social

this is a great graph from @johnauthers.bsky.social 's newsletter www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

@johnauthers.bsky.social Hume Doctrine. Superlative piece. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

Gift Link / Free to Read Opinion Newsletter | @johnauthers.bsky.social, Columnist The View of Iran From 40,000 Feet It looks like the Strait of Hormuz will be closed for months. That will hurt. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

AUTHERS: “.. logic now points toward escalation .. The Strait of Hormuz is closed, Iran evidently intends to keep it that way, and there is no credible means to claim US victory unless it reopens.” @johnauthers.bsky.social

Opinion | @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist Trump’s Big Tariff Stick Is a Little Smaller Now He’s trying workarounds, but the Supreme Court ruling showed there are limits. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

All you could need to know about the stock market rotation: www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

@johnauthers.bsky.social : "Usually, soft- and hardware move roughly together; now the fear is that huge increases in computing capacity will require ever more purchases from chipmakers and obliterate software codewriters"

Opinion Newsletter | @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist Bondi Beached — OK, Let’s Talk About the Dow The market’s performance under Trump 2.0 is no better than other recent presidencies. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

US #job report and #inflation projections in the swap market, chart @johnauthers.bsky.social

LOL this Tina Fordham quote from today's @johnauthers.bsky.social ~ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

‘Takaichi is charismatic and forceful. Comparisons to Margaret Thatcher are apt, but Britain’s Iron Lady never won a mandate this emphatic.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... by @johnauthers.bsky.social

This has aged well. Two months ago, Brighton #BHAFC leapt to a 2-0 lead over Aston Villa and would have gone third in the table if they'd held on. Yes, it would have been good if the season had ended right there:

Gift Link / Free to Read Opinion Newsletter | @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist A Hawk or a Dove? Understanding Kevin Warsh The appointment signals that the bare-knuckles legal fight to control the Fed is over. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

Opinion Newsletter | @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist Powell’s Survival Tip — Be Boring The Federal Reserve really doesn’t need the curse of interesting times. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

“In a world where markets don’t believe anything the government says, the worry is that markets realize too late the damage that has actually been done.” My chat with the @financialtimes.com’s @robarmstrong.bsky.social, who gave us “🌮 Theory,” and @johnauthers.bsky.social of @opinion.bloomberg.com:

‘A weak dollar makes US exports more competitive, and imports more expensive — a key Trump 2.0 aim and a reason why he has advocated for a weaker dollar in the past. The problem is inflation.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... by @johnauthers.bsky.social

This @johnauthers.bsky.social piece is interesting, it says that the gold price surges can be a function of China's monetary easing and the improve adoption of its international payment system

Opinion Newsletter | @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist Look at Them Yo-Yos Make Your Money Worth Nothing Banging down the dollar like Trump is obviously hurts. But so does China’s gold binge. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

@johnauthers.bsky.social : Traditionally, the country defines core inflation excluding fuel and fresh food — but not all food, as in most developed economies. That definitional difference grows very significant when the staple, rice, undergoes an epic price spike: www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

"Some of these nations have been hit with the highest US tariffs, but that hasn’t stopped a surge in confidence that they can grow their profits" @johnauthers.bsky.social

‘The combination of higher yields and a stronger currency threatens the carry trade, which is now a critical variable and has survived two sharp reversals in the last two years to set new highs.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... by @johnauthers.bsky.social

The combination of higher yields and a stronger currency threatens the #carrytrade — This is how #Bloomberg ’s index for borrowing in #yen and parking in #dollars has performed since the start of 2024, chart @johnauthers.bsky.social

Why markets are sunnier than the weather outside: www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

Opinion Newsletter | @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist As They Say in Greenland, ‘Trump Tamatigut Qunutittarpoq’ The TACO trade is back as markets shake off the invasion-tariff drama. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

Deutsche clarified that Europe ‘doesn’t need to dump [US Treasuries], they need to buy marginally less.’ That needn’t be because of weaponization. If Europe decides to invest more in.. defense, it might.. sell Treasury holdings to fund it.” @johnauthers.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

Okay @johnauthers.bsky.social went there!

This video on Japan from Wednesday of last week is getting ever more relevant. Hope it's of interest:

Europe has more options over Greenland than might appear from the Risk board: www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

Opinion | @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist With Powell, the Guardrails Are Holding Trump seems to always get his way, but limits are finally starting to catch up. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

Opinion Newsletter | @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist Inflation Numbers Are Looking Too Good to Trust The year starts with a positive surprise, but markets refrain from glee. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

The bullying is pointless and extends beyond the Fed to the US economy, @johnauthers.bsky.social says. Read the column: bloom.bg/4jExSjq

Trump’s latest attack on Fed chair Jerome Powell makes no sense. @johnauthers.bsky.social explains 🎥

Shorting JGBs is no longer a widowmaker. That's not great for everyone: www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

#FX - denominate your investments in a weak currency, and automatically all your returns will look better - here’s the S&P 500 this year, as measured in very weak #Turkish lira, underperforming USD, and very strong EUR, chart @johnauthers.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/opinion/auth...

The 2025 Trades You Should Have Made Where did fictional hedge fund Hindsight Capital put its money this year? Bloomberg Opinion columnist @johnauthers.bsky.social explains the trades you should have made in 2025. www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

Opinion Newsletter | @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist Capitalism and Crime: The Books That Got Me Through the Year Here’s one cold-eyed reading list. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

Weekend Essay Five Forces That Broke Capitalism — +One Possible Fix A wave of new books argue that capitalism isn’t doomed, just misaligned. Fixing it means rebalancing the relationships btwn markets, states & workers. www.bloomberg.com/news/feature... via @bloomberg.com @johnauthers.bsky.social

Opinion Newsletter | @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist Trump 2.0 Is Desperate Not to Make a 1.0 Mistake Affordability and a repeat of second-year market corrections hang over the midterms. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

Love every word of this www.ft.com/content/ccbe... Maga’s strange rage against Europe

Without getting into Brexit arguments again, yhe UK needs s desl righ the EU: www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

Gift Link / Free to Read Opinion | @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist The UK Needs a New Deal, Without Saying Brexit Trump 2.0 is a chance to find a trade rapprochement with the European Union. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

Emerging markets navigated post-pandemic inflation much better than the developed world: www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

Can we end the season now please? #BHAFC