Gift Link / No Paywall Opinion Newsletter @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist Remember, Remember, the Fifth of November… Markets have grown used to Trump 2.0, and assets are roaring — but watch inflation. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

Tariffs' day in cours is coming up. They won't get rubberstamped, but the justices will probably find a way to let them happen: www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

“.. Markets think China won big. .. China has shown it can dump exports on the rest of the world, and use its leverage (from soybeans to rare earths) to deter the US. So it’s still safe to deal with China, and companies that do so look their most attractive in 14 years.” @johnauthers.bsky.social

Opinion Newsletter @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist An AI-ncredible All-Clear Signal to Rally Markets A big week, from Fed hawks to the US-China truce, was dwarfed by AI spending prospects. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

‘US tech capital expenditure grew more over the past five years than between 1999 and 2002, and almost as rapidly as the entire technology, media, and telecommunications sector at the height of the dot-com boom.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @ianrharnett.bsky.social @johnauthers.bsky.social

This chart from John Authers' daily note gives us a sense of the incredible outperformance of tech names relative to other companies in the S&P 500. #economy #tech #stocks #markets #investing #investors @johnauthers.bsky.social

Odds the Supreme Court upholds Trump’s emergency tariffs: @johnauthers.bsky.social #IEEFA

Opinion Newsletter | @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist The Fed Is Set to Cut Rates, But How Confidently? Inflation isn’t giving policymakers a reason to hold off this week, but tariffs could create some trouble. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

Opinion Newsletter | @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist No One Wants to See the US and China Playing Chicken Markets exhale, knowing there are no winners in a trade embargo between Washington and Beijing. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

Opinion Newsletter @johnauthers.bsky.social Columnist From Cockroaches to Clouseau Markets are playing data detective for a pair of credit problems hiding in plain sight. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

Opinion | @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist The Fed Is Doing What It’s Been Told It is fulfilling the terms of its mandate not wisely, but too well. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

After the appalling news about Charlie Kirk, it's worth rereading Alistair Cook's great reportage from the scene of RFK's assassination in 1968. The parallels are close, and Cook's wisdom still relevant: www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/a...

Opinion Newsletter | @johnauthers.bsky.social & Richard Abbey, Columnists All That Glitters Is Cognitive Dissonance The gold rally has legs. But it’s relationship with equities is gaining a lot of attention. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

“.. the deflationary slump seems to be over. The bad news is that inflation is back. Core Japanese inflation.. is now higher than in the US for the first time in 48 years .. “.. Could this cause problems for the rest of the world? Yes, it very much could.” @johnauthers.bsky.social

Brilliant @bloomberg.com piece by @johnauthers.bsky.social on "who lost Europe." The EU has kicked the can for far too long on everything from massive debt overhangs in Italy and Spain to Russia sanctions. Deep reforms and debt write-downs are needed to fix the EU. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

Opinion | @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist Who Lost Europe? Hint: It’s Not Trump’s Fault The mistakes have been decades in the making. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

There's a new front in the Battle for the Fed: www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

Powell faces his Last Stand at Jackson Hole: www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

Latest Points of Return: www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

@johnauthers.bsky.social on BBG with a reminder or two. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

Opinion Newsletter | @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist Whatever the Alaska Game Was, the Odds Didn’t Move Betting markets were unfazed by the Trump-Putin summit. It’s Europe and Ukraine’s turn. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... @opinion.bloomberg.com

The world seems to be heading for a version of Orwell's Oceania, Eurasia and Eastasia from 1984: www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

Opinion Newsletter | @johnauthers.bsky.social, Columnist Where Is Bessent Pulling These Rate Models From? They fly in the face of decades of rules and experience. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

In fact Taylor rule (the most used model that uses target inflation vs current, real interest rate and the resource unemployment gap) states rates should be higher 1% @johnauthers.bsky.social notes (Mankiw’ even more). Plus, long end bonds don’t care about FED rate (it’s the Greenspan conundrum)

“.. Where is Bessent pulling these rate models from? .. suggesting that [effective Fed funds] should be about 2.6%. Over the last 70 years, the rate has never been that low with inflation as high as it currently” is. @johnauthers.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

Of 75 items within core goods CPI, “65.3% rose in July, up from 57.3% in June .. the highest in 30 months.” @johnauthers.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

Opinion Newsletter | @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist Nationalism Goes Better on Chips Than Nothing Markets view the US taking 15% of Nvidia’s sales to China as part of the deal. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

Opinion Newsletter @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist Godfather of the Mar-a-Lago Accord Goes to the Fed Miran’s call to shake up the central bank is as breathtaking as it was for world trade. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @bloomberg.com

US banks now trade above pre-GFC valuations 📈 They also sit at a huge premium to book value vs global peers. Would you buy a financial stock well above book? Quality premium… or bubble risk? Chart: @johnauthers.bsky.social

Gift Link / Free to Read Opinion | @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist The Revision Heard ’Round the World The quality of jobs statistics was already a problem before Trump drew attention to it. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

Hyperscaler AI capex has been “phenomenal” — but most of it “is to buy AI chips from Nvidia.” “.. Investment in tech-related construction (for data centers and so on)” has actually declined slightly in the last few months. @johnauthers.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

Since April, back to the old playbook. Via @johnauthers.bsky.social.

‘Investment in tech-related construction (for data centers and so on) has declined slightly in the last few months.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @peterberezin.bsky.social @johnauthers.bsky.social

‘If the rest of the world has a strategy (as opposed to a lack of will for the fight), it is to give Trump what he wants in return for retaining his military support, and wait for protectionism to blow up in his face.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... by @johnauthers.bsky.social

Free to Read / Gift Link Opinion Newsletter | @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist Job Description — Find Better Numbers, or Else Shooting the messenger further threatens US centrality to the world economy. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

How seriously should you take Trump's firing of the head of the BLS? @johnauthers.bsky.social says this further threatens US centrality to the world economy 🎥

AUTHERS: “.. Companies got out of the habit of responding to government surveys in 2020 when the pandemic gave them more important things to do, and it’s proved habit-forming. .. so it’s not surprising that the numbers need revisions.” @johnauthers.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

Opinion Newsletter | @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist Your Tariffs Are in the Mail, Sealed With a Diss There’s still a lot of drama left for trading partners who haven’t received letters yet. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

Opinion | @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist Independence Is the Worst Form of Central Banking Except for all the others. Trump needs to get out of the way. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

Gift Link / Free to Read Opinion Newsletter | @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist If Anyone Needs Independence Day, It's the Fed Lighten up the pressure on Powell. Trump has a point on lower rates, but not 1%. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

Opinion @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist MAGA Doesn’t Mean Making Profits Great Again Big Business and Trump’s populists are waking up to the fact they dislike each other. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti... via @bloomberg.com

@johnauthers.bsky.social on tariffs chess game. The key is budget reconciliation. Free link www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

Opinion Newsletter | @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist Trump Doesn’t Always Chicken Out If there’s a model for hope now, it may lie in how quickly the 1991 Gulf War ended. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

big ep this week -- @svaneksmith.bsky.social and i talk to the great @greenwell.bsky.social about her new book and @johnauthers.bsky.social on Israel, Iran, and the markets www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

A great look at how Spain has become “the antithesis of America” — and a significant irritant to its global policy ambitions. 🇪🇸 @opinion.bloomberg.com @johnauthers.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

#Fed Funds rate cut odds: #traders are more worried about growth than the Fed officials are, chart @johnauthers.bsky.social

Opinion Newsletter | @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist Making Oil Gyrate Again, One Post at a Time Raising the stakes to direct intervention and regime change is driving the price higher. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

Opinion Newsletter | @johnauthers.bsky.social Richard Abbey and Carolyn Silverman The US Is Exceptional — When It Comes to Rates |The Fed is expected to maintain its pause as the gap widens with other central banks. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... @opinion.bloomberg.com

Opinion | @johnauthers.bsky.social - Columnist A Day in a Life Without Immigrants How removing Mexicans from California’s economy changed from being a joke to something serious. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

This will be worth reading: