Free to Read/ Gift Link Opinion Newsletter | @johnauthers.bsky.social Columnist Bond Market Fright May End Cheap Funds Era What’s the same, and different, between now and the run-up to the Global Financial Crisis. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

‘Since Liberation Day, buying quality stocks has been a one-way ticket to losses.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... by @johnauthers.bsky.social

BARCLAYS: “.. Last week, long bonds broke. Not in one country. In all of them. Simultaneously. Four countries. Four different political systems. Four different central banks. But the same trade — ‘get me out of duration!’” (via @johnauthers.bsky.social)

As far as markets are concerned, the US is winning the Blockade of Hormuz: www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

Any discussion of #Fed #cutting rates this year is moot. #futures markets no longer expect it, while the rate-sensitive 2y UST yield has surged with rate expectations, chart @johnauthers.bsky.social

#investors now seem to assume that all those #semiconductors can be put to work making #software business models obsolete, chart @johnauthers.bsky.social

Opinion Newsletter | @johnauthers.bsky.social Columnist Hate to Suggest Partying Like It's 1999, But... At the risk of overstating, the similarities are getting too big to ignore. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

Gift Link / Free to Read Opinion Newsletter | @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist The TACO That Ate Market Strategy Why ‘buy the dip’ is Trump Always Chickens Out’s best friend. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... @opinion.bloomberg.com

The TACO trade keeps working (because T keeping COing...) www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

US #stocks look #expensive by any sensible measure, chart @johnauthers.bsky.social

Gift Link / Free to Read Opinion Newsletter | @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist It Doesn’t Matter What Kevin Warsh Has to Say The Powell case and future economic challenges are out of the Fed nominee’s hands. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

‘Demand for US assets from foreigners has fallen.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @johnauthers.bsky.social

Please may I ask a favor. A video we made last year on the absurdity of the Liberation Day tariffs has been nominated for a Webby. Voting closes Thursday. Please vote for it! Thank you. vote.webbyawards.com/PublicVoting...

Opinion Newsletter | @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist If Only the Profanity Meant an End Was in Sight Markets have a lot to weigh up, but optimism took a bruising over Easter weekend. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

From TACO to WACO - Will the Ayatollahs Chicken Out? www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

Opinion Newsletter @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist Markets Want to Declare an Off-Ramp and Go Home Without a deal, the best outcome may be for the US to forcibly reopen the Strait. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

Gift Link / Free to Read Opinion | @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist Powell to ’70s: Drop Dead Yes, there’s an oil shock, but fears of stagflation are way premature. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

“We estimate that the current increase in gasoline prices could lead to a 60-basis-point decline in the savings rate, bringing the overall reading to 3.9%, in line with other periods of instability, such as in 1999-2001 and 2005-2008.“ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @johnauthers.bsky.social

Worth reading: www.ft.com/content/86be...

Opinion Newsletter | @johnauthers.bsky.social Columnist Investors Can Handle What’s Happening in Hormuz Earnings forecasts are still holding up share prices despite war’s surprises. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

#war in #Iran Until the attacks started on Feb. 28, there was total #confidence in the #Fed funds futures markets that there would be at least 2x 25bp #cuts this year. Now, that’s down to one, chart @johnauthers.bsky.social

this is a great graph from @johnauthers.bsky.social 's newsletter www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

@johnauthers.bsky.social Hume Doctrine. Superlative piece. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

Gift Link / Free to Read Opinion Newsletter | @johnauthers.bsky.social, Columnist The View of Iran From 40,000 Feet It looks like the Strait of Hormuz will be closed for months. That will hurt. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

AUTHERS: “.. logic now points toward escalation .. The Strait of Hormuz is closed, Iran evidently intends to keep it that way, and there is no credible means to claim US victory unless it reopens.” @johnauthers.bsky.social

Opinion | @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist Trump’s Big Tariff Stick Is a Little Smaller Now He’s trying workarounds, but the Supreme Court ruling showed there are limits. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

All you could need to know about the stock market rotation: www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

@johnauthers.bsky.social : "Usually, soft- and hardware move roughly together; now the fear is that huge increases in computing capacity will require ever more purchases from chipmakers and obliterate software codewriters"

Opinion Newsletter | @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist Bondi Beached — OK, Let’s Talk About the Dow The market’s performance under Trump 2.0 is no better than other recent presidencies. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

US #job report and #inflation projections in the swap market, chart @johnauthers.bsky.social

LOL this Tina Fordham quote from today's @johnauthers.bsky.social ~ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

‘Takaichi is charismatic and forceful. Comparisons to Margaret Thatcher are apt, but Britain’s Iron Lady never won a mandate this emphatic.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... by @johnauthers.bsky.social

This has aged well. Two months ago, Brighton #BHAFC leapt to a 2-0 lead over Aston Villa and would have gone third in the table if they'd held on. Yes, it would have been good if the season had ended right there:

Gift Link / Free to Read Opinion Newsletter | @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist A Hawk or a Dove? Understanding Kevin Warsh The appointment signals that the bare-knuckles legal fight to control the Fed is over. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

Opinion Newsletter | @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist Powell’s Survival Tip — Be Boring The Federal Reserve really doesn’t need the curse of interesting times. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

“In a world where markets don’t believe anything the government says, the worry is that markets realize too late the damage that has actually been done.” My chat with the @financialtimes.com’s @robarmstrong.bsky.social, who gave us “🌮 Theory,” and @johnauthers.bsky.social of @opinion.bloomberg.com:

‘A weak dollar makes US exports more competitive, and imports more expensive — a key Trump 2.0 aim and a reason why he has advocated for a weaker dollar in the past. The problem is inflation.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... by @johnauthers.bsky.social

This @johnauthers.bsky.social piece is interesting, it says that the gold price surges can be a function of China's monetary easing and the improve adoption of its international payment system

Opinion Newsletter | @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist Look at Them Yo-Yos Make Your Money Worth Nothing Banging down the dollar like Trump is obviously hurts. But so does China’s gold binge. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

@johnauthers.bsky.social : Traditionally, the country defines core inflation excluding fuel and fresh food — but not all food, as in most developed economies. That definitional difference grows very significant when the staple, rice, undergoes an epic price spike: www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

"Some of these nations have been hit with the highest US tariffs, but that hasn’t stopped a surge in confidence that they can grow their profits" @johnauthers.bsky.social

‘The combination of higher yields and a stronger currency threatens the carry trade, which is now a critical variable and has survived two sharp reversals in the last two years to set new highs.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... by @johnauthers.bsky.social

The combination of higher yields and a stronger currency threatens the #carrytrade — This is how #Bloomberg ’s index for borrowing in #yen and parking in #dollars has performed since the start of 2024, chart @johnauthers.bsky.social

Why markets are sunnier than the weather outside: www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

Opinion Newsletter | @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist As They Say in Greenland, ‘Trump Tamatigut Qunutittarpoq’ The TACO trade is back as markets shake off the invasion-tariff drama. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

Deutsche clarified that Europe ‘doesn’t need to dump [US Treasuries], they need to buy marginally less.’ That needn’t be because of weaponization. If Europe decides to invest more in.. defense, it might.. sell Treasury holdings to fund it.” @johnauthers.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

Okay @johnauthers.bsky.social went there!

This video on Japan from Wednesday of last week is getting ever more relevant. Hope it's of interest:

Europe has more options over Greenland than might appear from the Risk board: www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

Opinion | @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist With Powell, the Guardrails Are Holding Trump seems to always get his way, but limits are finally starting to catch up. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti... via @opinion.bloomberg.com