US #job report and #inflation projections in the swap market, chart @johnauthers.bsky.social

LOL this Tina Fordham quote from today's @johnauthers.bsky.social ~ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

‘Takaichi is charismatic and forceful. Comparisons to Margaret Thatcher are apt, but Britain’s Iron Lady never won a mandate this emphatic.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... by @johnauthers.bsky.social

This has aged well. Two months ago, Brighton #BHAFC leapt to a 2-0 lead over Aston Villa and would have gone third in the table if they'd held on. Yes, it would have been good if the season had ended right there:

Gift Link / Free to Read Opinion Newsletter | @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist A Hawk or a Dove? Understanding Kevin Warsh The appointment signals that the bare-knuckles legal fight to control the Fed is over. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

Opinion Newsletter | @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist Powell’s Survival Tip — Be Boring The Federal Reserve really doesn’t need the curse of interesting times. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

“In a world where markets don’t believe anything the government says, the worry is that markets realize too late the damage that has actually been done.” My chat with the @financialtimes.com’s @robarmstrong.bsky.social, who gave us “🌮 Theory,” and @johnauthers.bsky.social of @opinion.bloomberg.com:

‘A weak dollar makes US exports more competitive, and imports more expensive — a key Trump 2.0 aim and a reason why he has advocated for a weaker dollar in the past. The problem is inflation.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... by @johnauthers.bsky.social

This @johnauthers.bsky.social piece is interesting, it says that the gold price surges can be a function of China's monetary easing and the improve adoption of its international payment system

Opinion Newsletter | @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist Look at Them Yo-Yos Make Your Money Worth Nothing Banging down the dollar like Trump is obviously hurts. But so does China’s gold binge. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

@johnauthers.bsky.social : Traditionally, the country defines core inflation excluding fuel and fresh food — but not all food, as in most developed economies. That definitional difference grows very significant when the staple, rice, undergoes an epic price spike: www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

"Some of these nations have been hit with the highest US tariffs, but that hasn’t stopped a surge in confidence that they can grow their profits" @johnauthers.bsky.social

‘The combination of higher yields and a stronger currency threatens the carry trade, which is now a critical variable and has survived two sharp reversals in the last two years to set new highs.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... by @johnauthers.bsky.social

The combination of higher yields and a stronger currency threatens the #carrytrade — This is how #Bloomberg ’s index for borrowing in #yen and parking in #dollars has performed since the start of 2024, chart @johnauthers.bsky.social

Why markets are sunnier than the weather outside: www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

Opinion Newsletter | @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist As They Say in Greenland, ‘Trump Tamatigut Qunutittarpoq’ The TACO trade is back as markets shake off the invasion-tariff drama. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

Deutsche clarified that Europe ‘doesn’t need to dump [US Treasuries], they need to buy marginally less.’ That needn’t be because of weaponization. If Europe decides to invest more in.. defense, it might.. sell Treasury holdings to fund it.” @johnauthers.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

Okay @johnauthers.bsky.social went there!

This video on Japan from Wednesday of last week is getting ever more relevant. Hope it's of interest:

Europe has more options over Greenland than might appear from the Risk board: www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

Opinion | @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist With Powell, the Guardrails Are Holding Trump seems to always get his way, but limits are finally starting to catch up. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

Opinion Newsletter | @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist Inflation Numbers Are Looking Too Good to Trust The year starts with a positive surprise, but markets refrain from glee. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

The bullying is pointless and extends beyond the Fed to the US economy, @johnauthers.bsky.social says. Read the column: bloom.bg/4jExSjq

Trump’s latest attack on Fed chair Jerome Powell makes no sense. @johnauthers.bsky.social explains 🎥

Shorting JGBs is no longer a widowmaker. That's not great for everyone: www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

#FX - denominate your investments in a weak currency, and automatically all your returns will look better - here’s the S&P 500 this year, as measured in very weak #Turkish lira, underperforming USD, and very strong EUR, chart @johnauthers.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/opinion/auth...

The 2025 Trades You Should Have Made Where did fictional hedge fund Hindsight Capital put its money this year? Bloomberg Opinion columnist @johnauthers.bsky.social explains the trades you should have made in 2025. www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

Opinion Newsletter | @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist Capitalism and Crime: The Books That Got Me Through the Year Here’s one cold-eyed reading list. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

Weekend Essay Five Forces That Broke Capitalism — +One Possible Fix A wave of new books argue that capitalism isn’t doomed, just misaligned. Fixing it means rebalancing the relationships btwn markets, states & workers. www.bloomberg.com/news/feature... via @bloomberg.com @johnauthers.bsky.social

Opinion Newsletter | @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist Trump 2.0 Is Desperate Not to Make a 1.0 Mistake Affordability and a repeat of second-year market corrections hang over the midterms. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

Love every word of this www.ft.com/content/ccbe... Maga’s strange rage against Europe

Without getting into Brexit arguments again, yhe UK needs s desl righ the EU: www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

Gift Link / Free to Read Opinion | @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist The UK Needs a New Deal, Without Saying Brexit Trump 2.0 is a chance to find a trade rapprochement with the European Union. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

Emerging markets navigated post-pandemic inflation much better than the developed world: www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

Can we end the season now please? #BHAFC

Opinion Newsletter | @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist Hard-Nosed Sympathy Is Beating Up Bond Markets A one-two slap from Japan and the Fed sends yields upward. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

@johnauthers.bsky.social on this 🎁 www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

The problem with markets is liquiditty. There's too much of it, and that makes them less efficieint: www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

In an exciting development, Nvidia might actually have some competition: www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

Latest Points of Return: www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

Over the last 12 months, #Bitcoin's performance has now been negative - first time that's been true since 2023.

A reader's note to @johnauthers.bsky.social:

Opinion | @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist Has Passive Investing Grown Too Big to Proxy? The inconvenient truth of shareholder detachment surfaces in antitrust probe. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

Opinion Newsletter | @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist From U-turns to Making America Affordable Again Both Trump and Britain’s Labour government need a word with the ghost of Margaret Thatcher. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

China has made a big symbolic point by raising dollar-denominated bonds at no premium to Treasuries. Which is probably good for emerging markets: www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

Gift Link / No Paywall Opinion Newsletter @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist Remember, Remember, the Fifth of November… Markets have grown used to Trump 2.0, and assets are roaring — but watch inflation. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

Tariffs' day in cours is coming up. They won't get rubberstamped, but the justices will probably find a way to let them happen: www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

“.. Markets think China won big. .. China has shown it can dump exports on the rest of the world, and use its leverage (from soybeans to rare earths) to deter the US. So it’s still safe to deal with China, and companies that do so look their most attractive in 14 years.” @johnauthers.bsky.social

Opinion Newsletter @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist An AI-ncredible All-Clear Signal to Rally Markets A big week, from Fed hawks to the US-China truce, was dwarfed by AI spending prospects. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

‘US tech capital expenditure grew more over the past five years than between 1999 and 2002, and almost as rapidly as the entire technology, media, and telecommunications sector at the height of the dot-com boom.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @ianrharnett.bsky.social @johnauthers.bsky.social