‘At the outset of his last year as chairman of the Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan had a warning. “History cautions,” he told Congress in 2005, “that people experiencing long periods of relative stability are prone to excess.”’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti... by @johnauthers.bsky.social

‘Investment bubbles sow the seeds of their own destruction if they attract more capital than they can productively use, and starve other areas that need it. That point might be approaching.‘ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... by @johnauthers.bsky.social

The projected course of #Fed Funds Rate – chart @johnauthers.bsky.social

‘Bitcoin’s highly speculative nature has often made it an early gauge of changing liquidity conditions, with broader risk assets following its lead.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @johnauthers.bsky.social

Gift Link / Free to Read Opinion Newsletter | @johnauthers.bsky.social, Columnist What If Vanguard's Va-Va-VOOm Follows Magellan? The first trillion-dollar ETF brings excitement, but looming IPOs are unsettling passive funds. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

Very strong headline game from @johnauthers.bsky.social today!

Hope this chat on Wall Street Week about Keir Starmer's problems and the gilts market is of interest: www.youtube.com/watch?v=WyBi...

"Nicholas Colas of DataTrek Research argues that the “strike price” for the Trump Put is “some way from where we are".” @opinion.bloomberg.com @johnauthers.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

#eurozone #ECB The markets seem to be saying that 3x rate #hikes aren't necessary; one will suffice to it risks: weakening already soft industrial activity, worsening credit conditions, and deepening recessionary tendencies, chart @johnauthers.bsky.social

‘Over history, whenever earnings have risen like this, they have always brought interest rates up with them. It will be hard to avoid a bear market if the Fed hikes rates.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @johnauthers.bsky.social @ianrharnett.bsky.social

Free to Read/ Gift Link Opinion Newsletter | @johnauthers.bsky.social Columnist Bond Market Fright May End Cheap Funds Era What’s the same, and different, between now and the run-up to the Global Financial Crisis. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

‘Since Liberation Day, buying quality stocks has been a one-way ticket to losses.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... by @johnauthers.bsky.social

BARCLAYS: “.. Last week, long bonds broke. Not in one country. In all of them. Simultaneously. Four countries. Four different political systems. Four different central banks. But the same trade — ‘get me out of duration!’” (via @johnauthers.bsky.social)

As far as markets are concerned, the US is winning the Blockade of Hormuz: www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

Any discussion of #Fed #cutting rates this year is moot. #futures markets no longer expect it, while the rate-sensitive 2y UST yield has surged with rate expectations, chart @johnauthers.bsky.social

#investors now seem to assume that all those #semiconductors can be put to work making #software business models obsolete, chart @johnauthers.bsky.social

Opinion Newsletter | @johnauthers.bsky.social Columnist Hate to Suggest Partying Like It's 1999, But... At the risk of overstating, the similarities are getting too big to ignore. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

Gift Link / Free to Read Opinion Newsletter | @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist The TACO That Ate Market Strategy Why ‘buy the dip’ is Trump Always Chickens Out’s best friend. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... @opinion.bloomberg.com

The TACO trade keeps working (because T keeping COing...) www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

US #stocks look #expensive by any sensible measure, chart @johnauthers.bsky.social

Gift Link / Free to Read Opinion Newsletter | @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist It Doesn’t Matter What Kevin Warsh Has to Say The Powell case and future economic challenges are out of the Fed nominee’s hands. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

‘Demand for US assets from foreigners has fallen.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @johnauthers.bsky.social

Please may I ask a favor. A video we made last year on the absurdity of the Liberation Day tariffs has been nominated for a Webby. Voting closes Thursday. Please vote for it! Thank you. vote.webbyawards.com/PublicVoting...

Opinion Newsletter | @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist If Only the Profanity Meant an End Was in Sight Markets have a lot to weigh up, but optimism took a bruising over Easter weekend. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

From TACO to WACO - Will the Ayatollahs Chicken Out? www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

Opinion Newsletter @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist Markets Want to Declare an Off-Ramp and Go Home Without a deal, the best outcome may be for the US to forcibly reopen the Strait. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

Gift Link / Free to Read Opinion | @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist Powell to ’70s: Drop Dead Yes, there’s an oil shock, but fears of stagflation are way premature. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

“We estimate that the current increase in gasoline prices could lead to a 60-basis-point decline in the savings rate, bringing the overall reading to 3.9%, in line with other periods of instability, such as in 1999-2001 and 2005-2008.“ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @johnauthers.bsky.social

Worth reading: www.ft.com/content/86be...

Opinion Newsletter | @johnauthers.bsky.social Columnist Investors Can Handle What’s Happening in Hormuz Earnings forecasts are still holding up share prices despite war’s surprises. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

#war in #Iran Until the attacks started on Feb. 28, there was total #confidence in the #Fed funds futures markets that there would be at least 2x 25bp #cuts this year. Now, that’s down to one, chart @johnauthers.bsky.social

this is a great graph from @johnauthers.bsky.social 's newsletter www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

@johnauthers.bsky.social Hume Doctrine. Superlative piece. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

Gift Link / Free to Read Opinion Newsletter | @johnauthers.bsky.social, Columnist The View of Iran From 40,000 Feet It looks like the Strait of Hormuz will be closed for months. That will hurt. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

AUTHERS: “.. logic now points toward escalation .. The Strait of Hormuz is closed, Iran evidently intends to keep it that way, and there is no credible means to claim US victory unless it reopens.” @johnauthers.bsky.social

Opinion | @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist Trump’s Big Tariff Stick Is a Little Smaller Now He’s trying workarounds, but the Supreme Court ruling showed there are limits. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

All you could need to know about the stock market rotation: www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

@johnauthers.bsky.social : "Usually, soft- and hardware move roughly together; now the fear is that huge increases in computing capacity will require ever more purchases from chipmakers and obliterate software codewriters"

Opinion Newsletter | @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist Bondi Beached — OK, Let’s Talk About the Dow The market’s performance under Trump 2.0 is no better than other recent presidencies. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

US #job report and #inflation projections in the swap market, chart @johnauthers.bsky.social

LOL this Tina Fordham quote from today's @johnauthers.bsky.social ~ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

‘Takaichi is charismatic and forceful. Comparisons to Margaret Thatcher are apt, but Britain’s Iron Lady never won a mandate this emphatic.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... by @johnauthers.bsky.social

This has aged well. Two months ago, Brighton #BHAFC leapt to a 2-0 lead over Aston Villa and would have gone third in the table if they'd held on. Yes, it would have been good if the season had ended right there:

Gift Link / Free to Read Opinion Newsletter | @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist A Hawk or a Dove? Understanding Kevin Warsh The appointment signals that the bare-knuckles legal fight to control the Fed is over. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

Opinion Newsletter | @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist Powell’s Survival Tip — Be Boring The Federal Reserve really doesn’t need the curse of interesting times. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

“In a world where markets don’t believe anything the government says, the worry is that markets realize too late the damage that has actually been done.” My chat with the @financialtimes.com’s @robarmstrong.bsky.social, who gave us “🌮 Theory,” and @johnauthers.bsky.social of @opinion.bloomberg.com:

‘A weak dollar makes US exports more competitive, and imports more expensive — a key Trump 2.0 aim and a reason why he has advocated for a weaker dollar in the past. The problem is inflation.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... by @johnauthers.bsky.social

This @johnauthers.bsky.social piece is interesting, it says that the gold price surges can be a function of China's monetary easing and the improve adoption of its international payment system

Opinion Newsletter | @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist Look at Them Yo-Yos Make Your Money Worth Nothing Banging down the dollar like Trump is obviously hurts. But so does China’s gold binge. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

@johnauthers.bsky.social : Traditionally, the country defines core inflation excluding fuel and fresh food — but not all food, as in most developed economies. That definitional difference grows very significant when the staple, rice, undergoes an epic price spike: www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...