Every equity investor eventually realizes that PE ratios are largely useless & goes searching for a better approach to valuation. In the video below, we explain the one we've settled on after +30 years of looking at individual stocks. Check it out! youtu.be/kf6XnWyjMf0?...

1/2 China’s 2 largest public companies, Tencent & #$BABA, offer investors in US large cap Tech with meaningful diversification benefits. Tencent trades entirely independent of the QQQs, while BABA only has some modest price return overlap...

Oil prices are up in 2026, but they must show dramatic (+80%) annual increases before creating significant recession risk. Separately, the relationship between WTI prices and core inflation is actually quite modest.

The debt of many public/private software companies is rated single B, leaving this important segment of the high yield market subject to contagion given recent concerns surrounding this sector. Happily, single B spreads remain very low, a vote of confidence in the US economy.

Global equity market returns since the start of the current bull market in early 2023 show a pronounced investor preference for larger companies, a logical development given threats from new disruptive technologies.

#$TSLA trades for 200x earnings and #$GM goes for just 7x. This tells us nothing about whether one or the other is a good investment. DataTrek's Nick Colas explains what does in our latest video, watch below! youtu.be/kf6XnWyjMf0?...

1/2 This month’s dollar weakness continues a trend that started over a year ago. Non-US currencies had lost significant ground in Q4 2024 on the back of the US general election. What started as a catch-up trade early in 2025 has developed into a full-blown, risk-on move...

In our latest video, DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas outlines his favorite method for understanding exactly what expectations are embedded in stock prices. Watch below! youtu.be/kf6XnWyjMf0?...

1/2 While it's tempting to write off US Big Tech, let’s remember that the first 2 months of 2025 also saw them add nothing to the S&P 500 in January and cause all the index’s losses in February. The problem then was China’s DeepSeek and...

The “S&P 493” - ex Big Tech - is up nicely month to date thru yesterday (+2.1%), not far behind ROW (+3.3%) and actually better than the Russell 2000 (+1.3%).

The best performing geographies/US market caps YTD are Japan (+13.2%), Emerging Markets (+11.8%), and high-quality US small caps (S&P 600 +9.2%).

US small caps continue to show strength, with higher quality names outperforming more speculative stocks (S&P 600 +3.0 pct, Russell 2000 +1.3 pct).

MSCI Japan’s strong rally this month (+7.2) is responsible for 31% of ROW’s gains February to date (thru yesterday). A stronger yen (+1.0%) is only a small part (14 pct) of this move.

#$TSLA trades for 200x earnings and #$GM goes for just 7x. This tells us nothing about whether one or the other is a good investment. DataTrek's Nick Colas explains what does in our latest video, watch below! youtu.be/kf6XnWyjMf0?...

Thus far in February thru yesterday, rest of world (ROW) stocks have outperformed the S&P 500 by more than all of January on a dollar-return basis (+4.7 versus +4.1 percentage points). Dollar weakness (-0.3/-1.0%) has only been a modest help in the month.

Every equity investor eventually realizes that PE ratios are largely useless & goes searching for a better approach to valuation. In the video below, we explain the one we've settled on after +30 years of looking at individual stocks. Check it out! youtu.be/kf6XnWyjMf0?...

The Russell 2000 outperformed the S&P 500 by +3.9 points in January and has added another +1.0 points thus far in February.

US large cap Tech was essentially flat (-0.1%) in January but is down -3.1% in February. The Magnificent 7 collectively had no effect on the S&P 500 in January but have hit the index for -2.1 points in February.

After being flat or down over the last 3 calendar years, WTI crude is up +8.6% YTD, the last major commodity to participate in a typical late-cycle rally. #$XLE

Concerns about US Tech overspending on Artificial Intelligence (Mag 7 stocks down an average of -7.1% YTD) are spurring investors to reallocate capital to late cycle groups like Energy (large cap +20.2% YTD), Materials (+16.2%), and Industrials (+12.9%).

In our latest video, DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas outlines his favorite method for understanding exactly what expectations are embedded in stock prices. Watch below! youtu.be/kf6XnWyjMf0?...

In January 2026, rest of world (ROW) stocks outperformed the S&P 500 by +4.1 percentage points. February to date, the gap is +4.7 points.

In our latest video, DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas outlines his favorite method for understanding exactly what expectations are embedded in stock prices. Watch below! youtu.be/kf6XnWyjMf0?...

The year has begun right where 2025 left off, with 2 key differences. 1: US large cap Tech is posting outright losses vs muddling through. 2: Japan/EM have replaced Europe as ROW leadership. Read our full take by signing up free on datatrekresearch.com! #$EWJ #$EEM #$XLK #$IEUR

Five US small cap sectors are up more than 20% YTD and only one is posting losses. After years in the wilderness, US small caps are enjoying a broad based catch up trade. Read our full analysis in tonight's report by signing up free on datatrekresearch.com!

1/2 The bull case for Energy is that it represents just 3.3% of the S&P 500. As it becomes clear that carbon-based energy has a longer runway than previously thought, this weighting can certainly increase...

We will discuss the rolling AI-related selloff across many sectors and individual stocks in tonight's report. You won't want to miss it! Read it by signing up for a 2-week free trial on datatrekresearch.com!

It’s imperative SpaceX and OpenAI list on the Nasdaq for inclusion in the QQQs to help keep the exchange’s innovation flywheel turning on behalf of investors in this ETF. #$QQQ

#$QQQ has double the exposure to Semiconductors as Software despite holding the same number of positions in each. That’s a feature of indexing, not a bug. It awards winners with more weighting and losers with less. Semis are rallying this year as Software has swooned. #$IGV #$SMH

Year to date, US fund investors have been net sellers of US stocks but buyers of everything else (non-US equities, fixed income, and commodities).

1/2 Year to date, developed economy sovereign debt investors are largely back to clipping coupons rather than fretting over potential loss of principal. The one exception is Japan, where yields are finally normalizing...

1/3 Global venture funding doubled year over year in January, but more than a third (36%) went to Elon Musk’s xAI, underscoring how US-based AI megadeals continue to drive overall activity…

1/2 Big Tech’s AI-related CapEx budgets for 2026 are extremely aggressive, but these companies’ strong cash flows make them manageable. Of the collective $725 billion in announced CapEx, 96% ($698 bn) can come from expected 2026 operating cash flow...

Spending at American restaurants and bars has been weakening since mid 2025, reflecting a downshift in US consumers’ discretionary outlays.

LIVE NOW: It’s Jobs Day! Is payroll growth flatlining in the US? @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social discusses the data LIVE with Allison Schrager and @datatrekresearch.bsky.social

1/2 The Russell 2000 recently outperformed the S&P 500 by +2 standard deviations over the prior 50 trading days. That has only happened 4 other times since 2015...

Yes, the US Big Tech hyperscalers have the money to fund their AI CapEx plans. Don't believe us? Read tonight's report by signing up free on datatrekresearch.com!

We're covering the topic of the day (and perhaps the year) in tonight's report: US Big Tech’s CapEx spending on Artificial Intelligence in 2026. This is a must read. Sign up for a 2-week free trial on datatrekresearch.com to receive it!

It’s Jobs Day! Is payroll growth flatlining in the US? @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social discusses the data LIVE with Allison Schrager and @datatrekresearch.bsky.social Wednesday, Feb. 11 @ 8:25 am ET

The @newyorkfed.org’s latest Survey of Consumer Expectations shows that food and rent inflation uncertainty remain very elevated, the root cause of economic uncertainty for many less affluent households.

Non-US stocks have just beaten the S&P 500 by more than 2 standard deviations over the last 50 days on a dollar-return basis. That's only happened 5 times since 2015. When non-US stocks continued to outperform over the next 50 days, dollar weakness was a critical tailwind.

In our latest video, DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe shares how we use Google Trends search volumes to gauge the strength of the US labor market. Check it out! Americans are Job Searching at Recessionary Levels youtu.be/yWEmhWuVky4?... via @YouTube

Americans are searching for jobs more than even during the Great Recession despite the US still being in a nominal economic expansion. Watch our latest video for our take on the US labor market ahead of tomorrow's delayed jobs report! youtu.be/yWEmhWuVky4?...

US Google search volumes for “find job”, “new job” & “part time job” are all near 20-year highs. Watch why that matters for US corporate profitability in our latest quick video below! Americans are Job Searching at Recessionary Levels youtu.be/yWEmhWuVky4?... via @YouTube

Since the March/April 2025 trade policy shock (i.e., July 2025 – present), the VIX has only closed above its long run average of 19.4 on 16 days. These have all been good opportunities for near-term (1 month) gains in US large caps.

The delayed US jobs report will be out on Wednesday. Check out our take on the strength of the US labor market in our latest video ahead of the release! It's just a few minutes but a must watch! Americans are Job Searching at Recessionary Levels youtu.be/yWEmhWuVky4?...

The delayed US jobs report will be out on Wednesday. Check out our take on the strength of the US labor market in our latest video ahead of the release! It's just a few minutes but a must watch! Americans are Job Searching at Recessionary Levels youtu.be/yWEmhWuVky4?...

1/2 Economic shocks can lead to the quick adoption of new technologies. Such was the case in the 1970s and 1980s, when two oil price spikes and recessions (1973, 1979) caused auto manufacturers and consumers alike to switch from bias ply to radial tires...

US single B corporate debt spreads over Treasuries continue to run well below their long run average, a vote of confidence in the US economy from this very risk averse market.

US Google search volumes for “find job”, “new job” & “part time job” are all near 20-year highs. Watch why that matters for US corporate profitability in our latest quick video below! Americans are Job Searching at Recessionary Levels youtu.be/yWEmhWuVky4?... via @YouTube