“More Americans are working today than at any time in the history of our country,” Trump said during his #SOTU address. That’s true — but job growth has actually slowed since he took office: bit.ly/3OxrLC6

Are we in a stock market bubble? There’s a raging debate in markets about the sustainability of today’s high stock valuations, and it starts with this chart👇 Shiller P/E has a strong track record of flagging bubbles, and it's flashing red. (link below)

There’s a playlist for everything — even Fed Day 🎶 Here’s what to listen to before tomorrow’s expected rate cut:

Folks like Stephen Miller and Matt Walsh have figured out that NYC has a lot of immigrants, and they apparently think that’s somehow bad or un-American. "Their insinuation that this is something new is, however, ridiculous." - @byjustinfox.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

Love this Brian Wilson tribute from Bill Frisell. Music so good it transcends time and genre. www.youtube.com/watch?v=yO2C...

Do AI tools deprive young workers of development opportunities? "The young accountant, for instance, might be saving time, but he’s also missing out on the practice of spotting something fishy in raw data," @parmy.bsky.social writes www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

We're witnessing a massive near-term expansion of Social Security, and I think it's having an effect on macro data. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

Waller outlined a path to lower rates in the second half (more trade policy certainty), but Trump basically decided not to take it. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

The administration is really committed to this vision of Americans screwing in little screws.

"Ken Griffin’s Citadel is putting its Florida lobbying muscle behind an effort to allow four-year non-compete clauses and garden leaves in its home state, tightening employers’ hold on well-paid staffers and executives considering defection." www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

"While the UK’s elimination of many NTBs will help a lot of US exporters, the primary beneficiaries will be UK residents. Now maybe Trump can get the EU to finally carry out the regulatory reform it so desperately needs." - Allison Schrager www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

SEINFELDIAN DEALMAKING: "Watching President Donald Trump reveal in the Oval Office what he described as `a tremendous trade deal' with the UK reminded me of the 1990s sitcom Seinfeld, the show that was literally about nothing." @bobburgess.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

The Great Productivity Boom isn't over ... it's taking a break though. Maybe a longish break. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

The US has a gaping fiscal deficit, and no one seems serious about addressing it. It's time to have a conversation about a VAT for America, writes @byjustinfox.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

“The six-decade track record [Buffett] leaves behind is so astonishing that mere numbers on a page don’t do it justice.” @nirkaissar.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

Kaissar on Buffett youtube.com/shorts/Is74L...

Will there ever be a better investor than Warren Buffett? Join @timobrien.bsky.social, @jonathanjlevin.bsky.social and Allison Schrager for a Live Q&A: Monday, 12:15pm EDT bloom.bg/3EO1Bqe

The Oracle of Omaha plans to step down at Berkshire Hathaway. But his legacy will echo across markets for generations, says @nirkaissar.bsky.social

This Meet the Press interview is a wake-up call for investors who expect Trump to meaningfully walk back tariffs soon. He still deeply believes in this stuff.

Here’s what the tomato teaches us about free trade 🍅

“The fact that the display of Ugly Americanism provoked quite such a reaction in the famously easygoing Canadians provides a clue as to how other countries are likely to respond to rising tariffs.” @johnauthers.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

“While bureaucracy has evolved into a pejorative term used to describe complicated and pointless administrative procedures, bureaucracy is, at its core, an administrative system and way of organizing.” @bethkowitt.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

Has the propensity for US natural gas to drop toward $2 per million BTUs after visiting $4 changed? With crude oil facing rising supply excesses and macroeconomic headwinds, if gas does what's been normal since 2012, deflation would gain traction as the primary energy sector path.

How's Trump 2.0 going at 100 days? "The DXY dollar index... has given up almost 10%. This is by some way a record in the five decades since Richard Nixon unpegged the dollar from gold in 1971." - @johnauthers.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

"There is a plausible argument that in recent years China has had more influence over US economic policy than the other way around. That’s unfortunate... because the US model was already working pretty well." - Allison Schrager www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

"When a president doesn’t want to follow the law himself, there are supposed to be internal institutional checks to make him do so. One is the Office of Legal Counsel of the Department of Justice." -@noahfeldman www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

"Although banks would prefer the healthier economic environment they envisioned coming into the year, they're in a strong position to wait out the turmoil and stand ready to support the economy... whenever this storm ends." - @conorsen.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

"[Trump] should get no credit just for not doing something incredibly stupid. But it’s reassuring that the people who advise him seem to have been persuasive that provoking an unnecessary crisis would have been a bad idea." - @johnauthers.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

NEW ODD LOTS: What actually happened with the CHIPS Act @tracyalloway.bsky.social and I spoke to @hassankhan.bsky.social who recently left the CHIPS Office, and who graciously shared the ups and downs of his experience. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...

The Golden Age of Manufacturing is off to a rough start

"...Firing Powell will require either a change in the law governing the Fed’s relationship to the executive, or a big stretch of the concept of “cause.” @johnauthers.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

BILL DUDLEY: There are 4 reasons why the Fed will be patient. 1. Cloudy economic outlook 2. Falling potential GDP 3. Need to prevent inflation expectations from becoming unmoored 4. Attacks on Fed independence / can't appear to cave to DJT www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

"Of the 140 or so cardinal-electors, about 110 were elevated by Francis. Will they coalesce to choose a pope in Francis’ image?" -Howard Chua-Eoan www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

They’re playing Ben Kweller at the mall in Florida. Turns out shopping is better than I remember.

"These are uncertain economic times. You don’t have to take my word for it. The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index says so:" @byjustinfox.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

BLS economists "found that during the pandemic, total factor productivity growth was higher for industries where the percentage of primarily remote workers grew more." @claudia-sahm.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

Jay should keep standing up for himself.

Powell didn’t pull any punches today. *he shared real talk on tariffs (higher prices, less employment) *not-so-subtly criticized DOGE *delivered a legal defense for Fed independence www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

We can tariff Mexican tomatoes all day long in the name of protecting Florida farmers. Unfortunately, it won’t change the underlying economic incentives in the Sunshine State… condos are a more lucrative use of land than fruit and veggies. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

"We have two classes of forecasters: Those who don't know--and those who don't know they don't know." --John Kenneth Galbraith (h/t Howard Marks)

The dollar index is now flat on the day. 👏

“In the memoir that I helped him write at the end of his life, Volcker stressed the importance of competent government management. Policy goals change… but none succeed without public servants with the integrity and skills to sustain the nation’s credibility.” www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

BREAKING: Peruvian author Mario Vargas Llosa, Nobel literature laureate and a giant of Latin American letters for many decades, has died, his son said Sunday. He was 89.

Forget stock futures, this is what matters 👇 Dollar Extends Drop to Fresh 2025 Lows as Tariff Saga Rolls On

Tomorrow is an unusually big day for NY Fed inflation expectations.

The White House is celebrating the stale March inflation report, and markets are in full-on meltdown about what's coming. Bonus: find @ernietedeschi.bsky.social in my column and elsewhere in @opinion.bloomberg.com today. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

"...Right now, if you asked me what the impact of tariffs will be, based on available information, I would say this: bad but not recessionary. If I’m wrong, however, it’s likely to be worse than I thought, not better." -- @ernietedeschi.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

We've updated our @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff estimates in light of yesterday's announcement of a 90-day 10% "reciprocal" tariff and a 125% China tariff. Some key takeaways... 1/7

Trump asked if he'd consider exempting certain US companies. Q: How do you determine that? Trump: "Instinctively... it's really more of an instinct."

Trade war strategy: Launch a zillion-front trade war and tell other countries they better not retaliate or else. Strategy to limit collateral damage in financial markets: Tell investors to “BE COOL!”