21-million numbers on a screen tracking little of substance vs. one in 2009 -- cryptocurrencies may signal a bigger risk-assets bubble than internet stocks in 1999. The S&P 500 total return flatline vs. gold started in 1997 and in 2017 for the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index vs. the store of value.

The previous post highlighted Bitcoin leading indicator, Strategy Inc., rolling over and US T-Bond prices recovering. This 50-year chart shows the crocodile jaws ripe to bite that may signal normal deflation from inflation: expensive stocks vs. cheap bonds. Does record-setting gold get it?

Double-dog daring the market gods and doubling down on a 10x -- what could go wrong? Strategy Inc. has bounced back up to its 200-day moving average, which has rolled over. Nov. 2021 was the last time it did that, on Bitcoin's path to the 2022 low near $15.500 from 2021's high around $68,900.

Platinum's long consolidation period at around $1,000 may have formed a solid foundation to revisit $2,000. My graphic shows a key factor favoring the unique industrial, precious and chemical-catalyst metal: On April 21, the platinum/gold cross hit 0.28, the lowest level in our database since 1987.

Following five months of consolidation below $3,500 an ounce after first trading there in April, gold's breakout may have shifted the threshold to support from resistance. The next round number resistance is $4,000, which might be a matter of time, particularly if risk assets weaken.

Fed's cutting, stocks go up is a fallacy milkroad.com/podcast/what...

Silver May Be on a Mission Toward $50 - What was silver resistance around $35 an ounce has likely transitioned to support, with the metal on track to revisit its 2011 peak near $50. A key question from my graphic is: what might disrupt this upward trajectory?

This year's downtrend in the S&P 500 (SPX) vs. gold may be front-running the resumption of Fed easing and a recession. What's notable from my graphic is the tendency for the stock index, in ounces of the metal, to decline when the central bank cuts rates -- and the room to the downside.

Gold ETFs Going Crypto-Like? Bloomberg's measure of total gold ETF holdings jumped to a three-year high. At 95.8 million ounces on Aug. 19, my graphic shows this metric surpassing the 92 million threshold first reached in 2020, but with a big difference -- stock market volatility was rising then.

If markets finish 3Q near Sept. 19 levels, the last US stock-to-GDP comparison would be 1936, and for WTI barrels gold, 2020 and 1934. How much further can they extend, and what might spark some reversion are key takeaways from my quarterly chart showing S&P 500/GDP at 2.2x and gold/crude at 57

Besides a breakout chart pattern akin to cocoa before its parabolic rise in 2024, platinum's underpinnings could stem from reaching a record low vs. gold in April. Platinum's 2025 high near $1,500 may be a speed bump on the way to $2,000 and potentially a new record.

Breakout Underpinnings and Leading Rabbit - Gold Roughly 25 years of platinum trading have created a solid breakout base from the mean, median and mode around $1,000 an ounce. This may now be transitioning toward $2,000, supported by gold's strength. #platinum #gold #technicalanalysis

What had been gold resistance near $3,500 since April has flipped to support, leaving $4,000 as the next key target. Additional rally fuel may be required, and a top candidate is a decline in the US stocks. Gold ETFs and hedge fund positions don't show the typical extremes that can mark price peaks

Bull markets get extended and often achieve thresholds that can cap prices for enduring periods, and $4,000 gold appears to be good resistance. Aligned with 70% above its 16-quarter moving average, a move to $4,000 would match the extremes that capped rallies in 2006, 2008 and, most recently, 2011.

After being contained between $20-$35 from 2021-24, silver now appears to be transitioning former resistance into support as it advances toward its peak near $50. The gold-to-silver ratio's April high near 105 reflected a steep discount to gold, tilting relative value in favor of the white metal.

Silver's support and resistance goal posts have likely shifted to $35-$50 an ounce, from the $20-$35 that contained the metal from 2021-24. On an annual chart, silver appears to be retracing its candlestick extension from 2011, potentially toward that year's peak of $49.80 #silver

Record-setting gold might be signaling a third drawdown of about 50% in the US stock market since 2000. Expectations that equity prices will rise on the back of Federal Reserve easing could be a fallacy when considering the initial rate cuts in 2001 and 2007.

Stocks Declining vs. Gold Isn't a Good Sign - The lowest S&P 500 12-month dividend yield since 2001 may signal reversion risks that outperforming gold is sniffing out. My annual chart shows an ominous rollover pattern in the stock index measured in terms of the metal.

Reversion Can Be Profound -- Bonds/Gold vs. Stocks The lowest US Treasury-note prices since 1983 vs. gold and highest stock-market capitalization-to-GDP in about 100 years are ripe for reversion. A bit of pickup in stock-market volatility in 4Q could be a spark.

Gold is outperforming the stock market on the eve of the Fed resuming its easing cycle, a dynamic that has in the past signaled recessions. This leads to the question: Why are equities, which typically rise when the central bank cuts rates, going down against gold?

Deflation Often Follows Inflation; Gold May Get It - The stock market can become the economy when its capitalization increases to over 2x GDP, which may explain why gold's 40% gain in 2025 to Sept. 15 was last matched in 1979.

Can Leading Indicator Bitcoin-to-Gold Recover in 4Q? It's almost the end of 3Q and despite risk assets on a tear, gold is outperforming almost everything, notably on a risk-adjusted basis. What stops this track, or what might accelerate it?

Crude at $40 as Normal as Rapidly Rising Stock Prices - Crude oil on the same scale as the S&P 500 total return since 1927 may augur the normality of revisiting $40 a barrel. #crudeoil #stockmarket #macroeconomics

Is Gold Approaching $4,000 Telling Us Something? At about $3,650 an ounce on Sept. 12, gold appears to be on track for its next round-number resistance at $4,000. What might prevent the move may be less important than what could fuel it: the stock market. #gold #stockmarket #macroeconomics

What's unusual about gold's record rally is the notable absence of overextended longs from hedge funds and ETFs. My analysis of the latest COT data shows copper specs aligned with the price uptrend, which may underscore risks of the economically sensitive metal shifting toward crude's downtrend

Crude's Trend Is Down; Specs Are Long - Petroleum futures hedge-fund positions appear consistent with the downtrend in prices. At 7% of open interest on Sept. 12, speculator net-longs are relatively extended, especially vs. a year ago. #crudeoil #future

A 3% fed funds rate a year from now may already be priced in, if the loftiest US stock market in about a century is a guide, with underpinnings for gold. When the fed funds future in one year dropped to the 3% threshold at the end of 2007, it was from a similar apex just above 5%, akin to 2022.

"Here we go again," may be a takeaway from historically stretched risk assets anticipating Fed easing, which could be supporting gold. The best year for the ancient store of value since 1979 could signal US Treasury bonds as the next big trade, contingent on one key factor: a drop in US stocks.

The S&P 500-to-gold ratio is breaking down, similar to the lead-up to the great recession. Dropping below 1.94 ounces of the metal equal to the stock index, alongside fed funds futures in one year (FF12) indicating more than 100 bps of easing, has occurred only twice before now: 2007 and 2020.

If I keep saying the same thing, it might eventually happen. T-Bonds: The Next Big Trade After Gold? The lowest US Treasury Bond prices vs. gold in our database since 1992 may augur a next big trade favoring the notes, especially if the US stock market normalizes a bit.

Money-fund assets vs. the value of the US stock market are below 2007 levels, which may imply tailwinds for gold. At 11% on Sept. 11, ICI Money Market Funds Assets vs. US exchange-market capitalization compares with about 14% just before the great recession.

Bitcoin's role may be shifting toward that of a speculative, hype-driven commodity, leaving it prone to sharp pullbacks after outsized rallies and potentially boosting the appeal of gold. CoinMarketCap's listing of 21 million cryptos may undermine Bitcoin's perception of limited supply.

Commodities often go down after outsized gains, a pattern that may apply to Bitcoin. Digital gold with supply capped at 21 million vs. increasing demand and adoption, the price of Bitcoin was destined to rise. But what was one digital asset in 2009 is now about 21 million on CoinMarketCap.

Differences from the end of 2019 may instill caution in elevated risk assets, as guided by Bitcoin. Approaching 0.60 on Sept. 10, the 48-month correlation between the benchmark crypto and S&P 500 (SPX) is near its highest ever as markets anticipate renewed Federal Reserve easing.

Bitcoin/Gold's Same-Chart Syndrome With Stock Market Cap/GDP - The Bitcoin/gold cross has stalled at levels first reached in 2021, hinting at a broader risk-assets peak. #gold #bitcoin #stockmarket

Timing can be everything, and President Donald Trump's second term has elevated stock-market inklings reminiscent of Herbert Hoover's only term. Gold's almost 40% gain in 2025 to Sept. 9 was last matched in 1979, a signal that if I keep warning of a great reset, it might eventually happen.

Reversion Underway? Rising Gold/SPX, Unemployment - At a roughly 44% discount to the S&P 500 (SPX), the per-ounce price of gold looks poised to keep reverting toward parity with the stock index, particularly if US unemployment rises. #gold #stockmarket #macroeconomics @bloomberglp.bsky.social

Gold/SPX Is Rolling Over - Reversion or Feint? A tinderbox awaiting a spark for reversion is a takeaway from lofty US stock-market capitalization vs. GDP and the rest of the world, with gold underpinnings. #gold #stockmarket #macroeconomics @bloomberglp.bsky.social

What gets crude oil to rally? Gold is the only major commodity that's setting records as the summer doldrums wane.

Technical Outlook - What's Next for Corn, $3 or $5? Cycle Risks Appear Downward - Corn, stuck at about $4 on Sept. 8, has bounced back from its pre-2020 average price, but 2025's $5 high resembles 2014's peak -- a ceiling that lasted until 2021. The low in this down cycle might not yet be in

Stuck at $4: What's Next for Corn - $3 or $5? A critical test for corn may be whether it can stay above $4 a bushel, a threshold first reached in 1974. The 2025 low of $3.69 a bushel to Sept. 8 is above 2024's $3.60 trough, but our graphic shows a strengthening ceiling at this years high around $5.

Technical Outlook - Soybeans' Bear Flag: Trend and Risks Skew Toward $9 a Bushel - Soybean futures' inability to hold above $11 a bushel since 2024 points to downside risk toward 2019 prices. That year's average, just under $9, could serve as a gravitational anchor.

Soybean futures could be reentering their pre-2020 range. From 2015-19, the front future rarely traded above $11 or below $8.50 a bushel. To prove something other than a reversion to the range from before the distortions of 2020-22, soybeans probably need to sustain above this year's $10.82 high

Hedge fund futures positions may suggest greater sell-stop risks in crude and copper than gold. Combined with ETFs, futures spec positions in the precious metal are lagging the price rally. Crude net-longs suggest further price pressure, which could heighten the need for copper to stay elevated.