For the producers and exporters of all that domestic U.S. #oil and #natural gas, this is a big windfall. And unlike their competitors in the #MiddleEast or elsewhere, there's no security threat or blockage in getting their product to market, chart @reutersmiked.bsky.social

Markets’ resilience masks a potentially toxic shift of income from households to "Big Energy" - and packs big risks in an election year, chart @reutersmiked.bsky.social www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

Europe must realise that #ECB has the wrong mandate. This inherent flaw in the #EMU can only be corrected if courageous politicians make sound economic development the central goal of their work, chart Heiner Flassbeck www.relevante-oekonomik.com/2026/03/11/f...

#BDC plunge #MorganStanley capped redemptions from one of its private credit funds, returning less than half of the capital that investors sought to cash out, chart @bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

The $1.8 trillion private credit market is witnessing an exodus of investors after some high-profile corporate meltdowns led to mounting concerns over #loan quality and exposure to #software firms, chart @bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...

#JPMorgan is said to be restricting some lending to private credit funds after marking down the value of certain loans in their portfolios, chart @bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...

#Iran #war #oil prices #Dubai benchmark in deep #backwardation – chart @bloomberg.com live www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

(note to self) Trichet #ECB repeated a flawed policy during the #eurozone debt crisis. 7 April 2011: rate increased 1.00% → 1.25% - July 2011: raised again to 1.50% - Again the justification was higher inflation caused by #energy and #commodity prices.

(below #ECB ’s target) #Germany #inflation (CPI) in Febr 2025: 1.9%Y, 0.2%M, #energy prices: -1.9%, chart #destatis www.destatis.de/EN/Press/202...

Investors, however, should be mindful that the benchmark is highly dependent on the #tech sector meeting elevated expectations, notes #JPMorganAM

In the last 20y, passive investing has become increasingly popular. Investors should be aware that the composition of these benchmarks have changed dramatically over this time, notes #JPMorganAM

#IMF estimates for every persistent 10% rise in oil prices, a 0.1–0.2% fall in global economic output follows. #oil price surges contributed to U.S. recessions in 1973, 1980, 1990 and 2008, chart @reuters.com www.reuters.com/business/ene...

Apparent collapse of #Nvidia – #OpenAI tie-up raises questions about #circular funding and who will bear the cost of #AI ’s expansion, chart @theguardian.com www.theguardian.com/technology/2...

#Anthropic is bringing something new to #AI – The power to say no, chart @bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

Meanwhile, 5y inflation – linked UST yields have risen by 4.2bp in the last week, compared with a 15bp rise in nom yields, chart @reuters.com www.reuters.com/business/ene...

CBs are in a bind, as rate hikes to restrain #inflation could further undermine economic growth, chart @reuters.com www.reuters.com/business/ene...

#Fed Funds rate futures: March rate #cut trades at zero probability, chart @bloomberg.com TV live

Soaring petrol prices since the start of the war have undermined Trump’s claims to be tackling an #affordability crisis that has dented the US president’s approval ratings, chart @financialtimes.com

10y #inflation – linked Govt bond yields, chart #Pictet AM

#Germany factory orders in manufacturing: -11.1%M. It was always clear that the economy cannot survive on large orders alone. Nothing is less sustainable in economic and ecological terms than #armaments: The upturn is an illusion, chart Heiner Flassbeck www.relevante-oekonomik.com/2026/03/09/k...

#Quantum computing is unlikely to meaningfully reduce demand for conventional #datacenters or #chips in the immediate future, chart #JPMorganAM

The stronger growth in consumer spending for high-income households is driven by the K-shaped growth in #wages and wealth, chart Torsten Sløk @apolloglobal.bsky.social

This week's chart highlights that the #Iran conflict has spiked #energy costs, hitting lower-income #consumers hardest and widening inequality, chart #JPMorganAM

#Consumer spending data from the @NewYorkFed.org shows a clear K-shaped pattern where growth has been faster for high-income households than low-income households, chart Torsten Sløk @apolloglobal.bsky.social

Looking at a wide range of economic and #geopolitical shocks over recent decades, a balanced portfolio of stocks and bonds has outperformed #cash by 9% on average over a 1y horizon, and 22% on average over a 3y horizon, chart #JPMorganAM

S&P 500 #sector returns, chart #JPMorganAM

In fact, since the equity market peak, Dec 2026 #Fed funds expectations have risen almost 45bp, to 3.25%, removing nearly two cuts from the forecast horizon, chart #MorganStanley

#China EXP: +39.6%Y, IMP: +13.8%Y, trade balance in Febr 2026: $90.9bn chart @reuters.com www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...

Jump in geopolitical risk, but not a big sell-off, chart #MorganStanley

#Iran war and energy prices #crude oil #Brent and #WTI - chart (intraday) @bloomberg.com TV live

#Iran #war energy and crude #oil prices US #inflation expectations – measured by 1y and 2y inflation swaps, chart @johnauthers.bsky.social

#SouthKorean President Lee Jae Myung said on Monday that authorities would #cap domestic fuel prices for the 1st time in nearly 30y to contain a spike in prices after the conflict in the #MiddleEast sent global #crude #oil prices sharply higher - chart @reuters.com www.reuters.com/business/ene...

#Germany factory orders in manufacturing: -11.1%M, +3.7%Y - #foreign orders were down 7.1% in Jan 2026, with new orders from the #euroarea decreasing by 7.3% and orders from outside the #euroarea declining by 7.1%, #domestic orders fell by 16.2% - chart #destatis www.destatis.de/EN/Press/202...

#Labor market #slack is primed to act as a #disinflationary force - Not only is the #unemployment rate higher than it was during the last energy shock, but #job openings have also plummeted, chart #JonathanLevin www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

The two main drivers of US economic growth right now — #AI and an #aging population — are combining to make #healthcare the most appealing career option for job seekers, chart #ConorSen www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

The native-born #jobs boom was a mirage, chart #JustinFox www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

Dallas #Fed data show net unauthorized #immigration flows turning negative, meaning more individuals are leaving the US than entering, chart Torsten Sløk #apolloglobal

In 2025, broad-based AI enthusiasm fueled a rally across the #AI complex. This year, the AI trade has become increasingly idiosyncratic as investors navigate growing concerns about AI disruption and a surge in AI capex – chart #GoldmanSachs

Despite promising “no new wars” on the campaign trail, Trump’s second term has seen a drastic expansion of overseas #military action, chart @financialtimes.com www.ft.com/content/7ec4...

Soaring energy prices b/c of #shipping disruption in the Strait of #Hormuz are sparking fears of a broader economic fallout around the world. For #oi l-importing economies, including Europe, the #UK and #Japan , higher #energy prices are inflationary - chart #FT www.ft.com/content/7ec4...

The #war is unpopular in the US, although there is a stark partisan divide, with a majority of #Republicans backing Trump’s attack on Iran. A poll, conducted through March 4, found 56% of Americans were against the #military action, chart @financialtimes.com www.ft.com/content/7ec4...

Wow! #Bürgergeld #German Govt is considering abolishing the citizen's income, which would save tens of billions of euros that could be spent on “productive purposes” such as reducing corporate taxes - chart @bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

#FX #CarryTrades Over the past year, hot money has poured into the short-term debt of “frontier” nations, espec. #Egypt -- There, 1y paper offers a 25% yield, which is an eye-popping return even after subtracting expected inflation of 12%, chart @reuters.com www.breakingviews.com/columns/brea...

(my two cents) #ECB tends to label any price increase as “inflation” and tackle it without regard for the real economy. In 2022 and 2023, almost all mainstream economists made exactly the same mistake as in the 1970s, chart #NordeaMarkets

#Desalination remains a relatively cost-effective technology to transform sea #water into drinking #water - chart @bloomberg.com #JavierBlas www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

(sad) #doodle #Iran #war OMG - “complete destruction and certain death”

#FX #euro #EU ’s #energy dependence means it pays an extra tax from higher #oil prices. Historically, when oil and #naturalgas prices get expensive, the euro has weakened in tandem, chart @hakyungkim.bsky.social @financialtimes.com www.ft.com/content/2b48...

The #Swiss may be about to reaffirm their fondness for #cash with a vote that would give the francs in their wallets a place in the constitution, chart @bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

The #debt – inequality cycle – extreme #inequality is fueling a global debt crisis, chart @atifrmian.bsky.social op-ed #IMF www.imf.org/en/publicati...

#cartoon #book “Cry When the Baby Cries” (outstanding) chart @beckybarnicoat.bsky.social @theguardian.com www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle...