A world food crisis is coming as a consequence of the war on Iran. It’s not just about fertilizers and grains. Tomatoes and cucumbers are grown in greenhouses powered by gas. Gas is getting too expensive which means shortages are looming.

Die größten Gewinner der Rekordprofite in den fossilen Energien in der letzten Energiekrise waren die USA und dort Allerreichsten. Die Ölpreise explodieren in Folge des Irankrieges. Wieder werden die gleichen gewinnen. Unsere Analyse @gregorsemieniuk.bsky.social www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/2...

Jetzt LIVE: Ökonomin Isabella Weber bei Jung & Naiv über die kommende Wirtschaftskrise www.youtube.com/watch?v=OkjD...

Tilo Jung: "Politik ist kein Markt der Ideen, der besten Ideen?" Isabella Weber: "Nee". 😂🎯👏

Bin mal mal wieder zu spät & muss also nachhören/-sehen. Aber das fängt schon mal gut, informativ & spannend an: @isabellamweber.bsky.social wieder zu Gast bei @tilojung.bsky.social / Jung&Naiv.⬇️ www.youtube.com/watch?v=OkjD...

Erinnert ihr euch noch an den Anfang der COVID-19 Pandemie? Der Virus war da aber er hatte uns noch nicht erreicht. Dieser Moment ist ähnlich. Der Energieschock ist da aber bisher sehen wir ihn nur an der Tankstelle. Was kommt und wer profitiert @tilojung.bsky.social www.youtube.com/live/OkjDzAi...

The lesson of the previous energy crisis: Price interventions have to stop ripple effects before they start. This is about buying time for emergency adjustments. European democracies cannot afford another round of falling real wages and war profiteering. @wsj.com Link: www.wsj.com/economy/glob...

No one wants to talk about rationing. It’s not pretty economic policy. But the ugliest form of rationing is rationing by price explosions. That’s why it’s high time to put fair emergency rationing protocols in place for energy. Shortages are already here.

Der Energieschock ist schon hier. Seine Konsequenzen kommen Schlag auf Schlag. Der Benzinpreis ist nur der Anfang. Eine weitere Inflation der Ungleichheit rollt auf uns zu. Unsere Analyse @surplusmagazin.de @gregorsemieniuk.bsky.social www.surplusmagazin.de/isabellawebe...

Profiteering is not a bug but a feature of wars. TotalEnergies took “advantage of the wartime disruption to make a bumper profit” of more than USD 1 billion. The right response to this war is to end the war, cut off windfall profit opportunities and stabilize prices. www.ft.com/content/eba8...

German real wages saw the sharpest decline since WWII in the 2022 energy crisis & still haven’t recovered. The new energy shock will make things worse. But the German government is once more calling on people to tighten their belts. This is paving the way for the far right.

Greedflation, where companies pump the economy for money in anticipation of future gains. From the Bloomberg newsletter.

we are in the kinds of times where a strong government could easily justify such measures, bypassing political opposition and entrenched capital interests bsky.app/profile/cmmo...

every crisis intensifies distributional struggles - fossil capital already hiking prices a la @isabellamweber.bsky.social if we are not careful, this crisis too will mean gigantic distributional gains for capitalists, via higher public debt that will strangle our collective ability to transform

USD 200 a barril is the kind of carbon shock therapy that will have devastating social and economic effects across the world. Yes over long run it may shift us faster to public renewable but till then there's a lot of short term pain bsky.app/profile/bloo...

Eine Mehrwertsteuererhöhung pünktlich zum Ölpreisschock ist genau so sinnvoll wie die Gasumlage mitten in der Energiekrise 2022. Die Regierung macht sich bereit Öl ins Feuer der Krise der Leistbarkeit des Lebens zu gießen.

Die bevorstehenden wirtschaftlichen Folgen eines Krieges gegen den Iran sind enorm. Multilaterale Koordination ist heute wichtiger denn je, schreiben @isabellamweber.bsky.social und @gregorsemieniuk.bsky.social.

Iran war consequences @isabellamweber.bsky.social “It is unclear when the Strait of Hormuz might fully reopen to ship traffic, but one thing is certain: there is a blow coming for the global economy through the supply chain, no matter how soon the war ends.” www.newstatesman.com/internationa...

China won’t let market prices driven by war news rip apart its economy.

Election after election exit polls show that those who consider their economic security as poor vote for the neo-fascist AfD. We need an antifascist economic policy instead of a revival of 90s style neoliberalism. This has become only more urgent in face of the energy crisis.

The world energy shock is coming — it will deepen inequality in ways we've seen before. Our new @newstatesman1913.bsky.social piece argues that without urgent government action, the Strait of Hormuz crisis will ripple through our economies and rip apart our societies. Here's why. 1/

“The lesson of the last crisis is that preparedness matter — now governments must hurry. The toolkit is clear: reserves releases, multilateral wholesale price caps, margin caps along supply chains to contain sellers' inflation, nonlinear retail pricing for essentials” 🧵👇🏼🚨

“[the] distribution dynamic — from labour to capital, from the many to the few — is the political economy of sellers' inflation. Real wages in the UK and Germany only just returned to pre-energy crisis levels. Now we risk going through it all again, and worse”

The world energy shock is coming — it will deepen inequality in ways we've seen before. Our new @newstatesman1913.bsky.social piece argues that without urgent government action, the Strait of Hormuz crisis will ripple through our economies and rip apart our societies. Here's why. 1/

I have studied China for years and have been banging the drum for buffer stocks in essentials like food and energy with Western policy makers. The response was always some version of market fundamentalism: it’s not efficient, it distorts prices etc. Well, here we are. peri.umass.edu/publication/...

This might be the oil shock where the world learns that you can have Nixon style queues at gas stations without price controls. Blaming shortages on price controls in a massive supply shock is like blaming the rain on the umbrella. I still recommend using an umbrella.

Here we go again: This is what war profiteering looks like. Refinery margins are being pushed to the sky again. We need windfall profits taxes for oil extraction and margin caps along the value chain all the way to the gas stations.

Fossil fuel price shocks are redistribution shocks. Last time, we warned windfall profits would benefit the ultra-rich at the expense of everyone else. This time, there is no excuse. The numbers are in. We need windfall profit taxes & multilateral price caps now.

Worst of times, best of times. Looming fertilizer shortages push the world into a new hunger crisis. But for the concentrated fertilizer market the war on Iran is an extraordinary profit opportunity. Stocks are shooting up.

NEW: Fossil fuel pollution and other toxic chemicals from the war in Iran will spread across the region and last for decades just as smoke from burning oil wells went as far as the Himalayas following the Gulf War 35 years ago FREE read on @bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...

In case you thought "at least this horrific war is getting us out of fossil fuels", here is what it's been doing to stock market shares: Fossil fuels +25% since new year. Renewables flat. Relative profitability is what ultimately matters for a transition. @gregorsemieniuk.bsky.social

Two weeks into the Iran war, here's what the markets are saying about the energy transition: 🛢️ Fossil fuel shares: +25% since new year / +212% since 2021 🌱 Renewable shares: flat / -44% since 2021 War is doing what climate policy couldn't -- in reverse.

I do not see how European democracies can survive being complicit in the war on Iran plus the escalation of the cost of living crisis this war causes. This is the perfect storm to bring the far right into power.

We are now facing the biggest ever market disruption in the most systemically significant price of all. Link: www.bloomberg.com/news/article... Link to research on systemically significant prices: academic.oup.com/icc/article/...

This should be paired with an internationally coordinated oil price cap and energy saving programs.

G7 strategic reserve release won’t be enough this time. An internationally coordinated price cap is necessary. The cap on Russian oil prices shows it can be done. This has to be complemented with energy saving programs. The world can’t afford a rerun of 2022 on steroids.

"We try to manage the whole inflation problem by focusing on only the interest rate whereas I would argue that there’s a range of other systemically significant prices that we should also be paying attention to if we want to achieve greater price stability."

Have been researching inflation in times of overlapping emergencies the past years. This feels like 2022 on steroids. Am visiting the LSE this week to share some work in progress on anti-fascist economics, trying to make sense of this moment as it is unfolding. sticerd.lse.ac.uk/_new/events/...

Buffer stocks in action: Oil prices fell back to below $100 after G7 finance ministers said the group “stands ready” to release petroleum from emergency reserves.

Fossil fuels are by far the most systemically significant price, it's not even close. We just saw the largest single day price jump in oil. It's the responsibility of governments to contain this price jump and not let another round of sellers' inflation take hold. academic.oup.com/icc/article/...

The best way to end the affordability fallout from this war is to end the war.

We're in uncharted territory- if WTI crude holds these gains tomorrow- the current rise of 29.9% or $27.16/bbl would be its largest single day price jump- in both percent and amount- ever. Ever. EVER.

A double whammy for MAGAs. Many voted for Trump based on two promises: - no more foreign wars - I'll bring down prices He's reneged on both, spectacularly.

Who stands to benefit from War supply disruption? "Gas producers, including in the US, the world’s largest LNG exporter, will probably benefit from the disruption to Qatari production as international demand for LNG pushes up prices." www.ft.com/content/78fb... bsky.app/profile/isab...

Los resultados hablan por sí mismos.  ▶️ El 50% de estos beneficios récord fueron al 1 % más rico.  ▶️ El 84%, al 10% más rico.  ▶️ Menos de un 1%, al 10% más pobre.  El 0,1% más rico —apenas 131.000 hogares— recibió 26 veces más que la mitad de todos los estadounidenses.

Y mientras los más pobres pagan la cuenta, ¿qué ocurre del otro lado? ¿A dónde van los beneficios que generan las grandes petroleras?  Esta cuestión la aborda @isabellamweber.bsky.social en un nuevo estudio. 

Price shocks in essentials must be buffered before they ripple through the economy and rip apart our societies. Have governments learned their lesson or will they let the fossil fuel price shock unleash another round of windfall profits and inflation? Link: www.nytimes.com/2024/11/12/o...

The war on Iran is causing gas and oil price explosions. Our research shows: Fossil fuel prices are the most important prices for inflation and inequality. Energy price shocks are redistribution shocks. The poorer you are, the larger the share of income you spend on essentials.

Who profits from an energy crisis in the wake of the war on Iran? The 1%. Thanks @nytimes.com @hclairebrown.bsky.social for covering our research. Link to coverage: www.nytimes.com/2026/03/03/c... Link to our article:www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

Sellers' inflation coming to prices at the pump?