Shahin Vallée
@shahinvallee.bsky.social
📤 571
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Economist, think tanker. senior fellow DGAP, board member Observatory Group
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Shahin Vallée
Henning Hoff
1 day ago
Great move! Merz is picking up on a proposal his predecessor as party leader Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer suggested to him in our pages back in May
ip-quarterly.com/en/op-ed-how...
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Sander Tordoir
1 day ago
One of the most important charts in the world - from Rush Doshi in the New York Times. Without its allies, the United States is woefully behind China in metrics of raw economic power. Too bad the US president does not seem to get it. 1/
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Past Present Future Podcast
17 days ago
NEW EPISODE OUT NOW! Today David talks to
@leaypi.bsky.social
about her new book 'Indignity: A Life Reimagined'. A conversation about death and displacement, identity and betrayal, secrecy and salvation. Find us at...🎧
ppfideas.com
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Ben Abraham
16 days ago
Absolutely fantastic piece on the interfaces between climate risk and insurance in the Polycrisis newsletter today, by
@70sbachchan.bsky.social
and
@katemac.bsky.social
Not a doom loop, but “communities of fate” and the moral economy of the welfare state.
www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/ins...
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Insurance in the Polycrisis | Kate Mackenzie & Tim Sahay
The future is triage on an uninsurable earth.
https://www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/insurance-in-the-polycrisis/
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Great speech on the foundational role of the rule of law for Europe and the Euro
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20 days ago
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France’s curse and Bayrou’s political suicide
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France’s curse and Bayrou’s political suicide
Political woes and a ballooning deficit leave Paris searching for stability at home and credibility abroad
https://on.ft.com/4lZ4i7X
21 days ago
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A Reader of the FT
28 days ago
France must get creative to confront its fiscal deficit— As he has done in the past, Macron should force Bayrou to carry on his obligations temporarily as a caretaker and…
www.ft.com/content/1f8d...
@shahinvallee.bsky.social
@financialtimes.com
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France must get creative to confront its fiscal deficit
By calling for a confidence vote, the prime minister has renounced his duties and undermined the country’s credibility
https://www.ft.com/content/1f8d1093-3f65-472d-b1fb-7601e07cee0d
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France must get creative to confront its fiscal deficit
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France must get creative to confront its fiscal deficit
By calling for a confidence vote, the prime minister has renounced his duties and undermined the country’s credibility
https://on.ft.com/3JtO0X9
about 1 month ago
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Shahin Vallée
Benjamin Braun
about 1 month ago
For reasons, checking in on foreign official holdings of US treasuries at the Fed. Now down $100 billion since 'Liberation day'. Note: That latest data point with the biggest weekly drop yet is from *before* Trump's attempted firing of the Fed governor. Next release will be interesting (Thursday).
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Benoît Coeuré
about 1 month ago
« Le monde ne nous regarde pas avec bienveillance : il n’attend pas la lenteur de nos rituels communautaires pour nous imposer sa force. [Il] exige de nous une transformation radicale. » Un nouvel avertissement salubre de Mario Draghi, via le
@grandcontinent.bsky.social
.
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Mario Draghi : comment changer la trajectoire de notre continent
Entre Gaza et Trump, dans un été marqué par l’inaction de l’Europe, le doute s’installe. En établissant un diagnostic sévère, Mario Draghi montre qu’il est possible d’agir — et d’espérer. Nous publ...
https://legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2025/08/22/mario-draghi-comment-changer-la-trajectoire-de-notre-continent/
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Shahin Vallée
Ian Dunt
about 1 month ago
This is outstanding. God knows what Labour is doing: legitimising the racism that'll be its undoing, losing the coalition which put it in office, trying to secure voters who will never support it, digging its own moral grave.
observer.co.uk/news/opinion...
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Politically acceptable UK racism is rising, even under La...
As I wrote these words last autumn: “We have made progress... even though that progress remains fragile and insufficient”, little did I realise just how ...
https://observer.co.uk/news/opinion-and-ideas/article/politically-acceptable-uk-racism-is-on-the-rise-and-worse-this-is-under-progressive-labour-rule
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Shahin Vallée
Jeremy Cliffe
about 1 month ago
“Europe is risking its political soul. It has put itself in a situation in which leaders cannot say publicly what they are actually trying to do. That is a recipe for distrust and a poison for democracy”
on.ft.com/3HH41Ze
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Europe is selling its soul to Trump
What masquerades as pragmatism is self-harming opportunism
https://on.ft.com/3HH41Ze
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Shahin Vallée
Questions du soir
about 1 month ago
🪧 Le 17 août 2025, des dizaines de milliers d’Israéliens étaient rassemblés pour demander la fin de la guerre. Mais qu'en est-il du sort des
#palestiniens
? 👉 Quelques réponses avec Denis Charbit, politiste, Sylvaine Bulle, sociologue et Elad Lapidot, professeur d'études hébraïques
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Comment la société israélienne regarde-t-elle la guerre à Gaza ?
Le 17 août 2025, des dizaines de milliers personnes étaient rassemblées dans tout le pays pour demander la fin de la guerre. La libération des otages et la vie des soldats envoyés à la guerre étaient ...
https://www.radiofrance.fr/franceculture/podcasts/questions-du-soir-d-ete/comment-la-societe-israelienne-regarde-t-elle-la-guerre-a-gaza-1895151
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Shahin Vallée
Phenomenal World
about 2 months ago
"Even if the 'window of opportunity' for a more profound Social Europe had been grasped in the 1970s, how different would it have turned out to be?" From 2023, Neil Warner reviews Social Europe, The Road not Taken, by Aurélie Dianara Andry
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Constructing “Social Europe” | Neil Warner
The long 1970s and alternative visions for EU integration
https://www.phenomenalworld.org/reviews/constructing-social-europe/
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Shahin Vallée
Jeremy Cliffe
about 2 months ago
Spot-on by Gilles Gressani (
@grandcontinent.bsky.social
): "Europe’s submission [...] amounts to the rejection of any substantial autonomy in exchange for protection."
www.ft.com/content/0fa0...
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Europe’s ‘happy vassal’ complex
The EU is willingly colluding in its own subjugation to Trump’s geopolitical agenda
https://www.ft.com/content/0fa02c9e-9b02-4aa7-a07a-2387eba75b99
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Shahin Vallée
Phenomenal World
about 2 months ago
On Monday, join us for: ARGENTINA’S DEBT TRAP A discussion on Argentina, debt, and the IMF with: Julia Strada, Chris Marsh, @nakedkeynes.bsky.social, Hernan Letcher, and Maria Haro Sly. Register here:
bit.ly/argentina-fmi
Below, a 🧵 on relevant pieces from the archive—
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Jonas Nahm
about 2 months ago
1/ Trump's recent trade agreements with allies are revealing significant interpretation gaps. From Japan to South Korea to the EU, these deals lack formal documentation, creating ongoing disputes over fundamental terms.
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Questions du soir
about 2 months ago
Peut-on sortir de la civilisation du
#plastique
? Une émission à réécouter sur le site france culture.
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Peut-on sortir de la civilisation du plastique ?
Alors que s'ouvre un nouveau tour de négociations pour un traité international contre la pollution plastique à Genève au siège des Nations Unies, se pose la question de l'omniprésence du plastique dan...
https://www.radiofrance.fr/franceculture/podcasts/questions-du-soir-d-ete/peut-on-sortir-de-la-civilisation-du-plastique-4437181
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Shahin Vallée
Phenomenal World
about 2 months ago
"While EDIP and SAFE represent the EU's most ambitious defense industrial initiatives to date, their design reveals the persistence of the same fundamental contradictions that have shaped European defense policy for over seven decades."
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Military Unification? | Dimitri Zurstrassen
A critical juncture for a common European defense policy
https://www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/military-unification/
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Shahin Vallée
Franziska Wiest
5 months ago
My first paper of my dissertation 'Patrimonial Relations. Kinship, capital and conflict in super-rich Families' is out now on open access! Here I discuss how super-rich families use relational work on affective family ties as an economic resource.
@bupjournals.bsky.social
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Family feelings: affective ties and the reproduction of wealth in super-rich families
Rising wealth inequalities, concentrated in the hands of a few super-rich families, have recently sparked sociological interest in how these families sustain and legitimise their wealth across generat...
https://doi.org/10.1332/26316897Y2025D000000064
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Shahin Vallée
Questions du soir
about 2 months ago
« La fête est un moment de désordre organisé », d'après Philippe Steiner. 👉 Vous pouvez réécouter l'émission de vendredi « Où va la fête ? » avec Philippe Steiner, Emmanuelle Lallement et Alexandre Grondeau sur le site de France Culture.
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https://www.radiofrance.fr/franceculture/podcasts/questions-du-soir-d-ete/ou-va-la-fete-2723650
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Shahin Vallée
Judah Grunstein
about 2 months ago
Fascinating look at the air battle between India and Pakistan, which involved over a hundred planes and amounts to the Kursk of recent air warfare. tl;dr: amateurs talk about planes, professionals talk about situational awareness. Both sides (and outside observers) now learning from the outcome.
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Insight: How Pakistan shot down India's cutting-edge fighter using Chinese gear
Just after midnight on May 7, the screen in the Pakistan Air Force's operations room lit up in red with the positions of dozens of active enemy planes across the border in India.
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/how-pakistan-shot-down-indias-cutting-edge-fighter-using-chinese-gear-2025-08-02/
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Shahin Vallée
Albert Pinto
about 2 months ago
4/ "Why US tariffs haven’t been passed through even more to higher US prices? -effective rate today is “only” 8.8% now...but the effective rate is about to double - radical volatility of the tariffs ended; now seem “permanent” →Conjecture: pass through will accelerate this quarter"- Richard Baldwin
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Shahin Vallée
Mohamed A. El-Erian
about 2 months ago
More breaking news on an already eventful day! This gives President Trump new opportunities regarding the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors, including the possibility to nominate in the next few days a de facto “shadow chair” should he wish to do so…. 1 of 2
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Shahin Vallée
Phenomenal World
about 2 months ago
"Around 55 percent of arms imports by European states between 2019–2023 came from the US, up from 35 percent between 2014–2018." NEW
@dzurstrassen.bsky.social
reviews the persistent obstacles of European defense policy, from the EU's founding to the SAFE program.
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Military Unification? | Dimitri Zurstrassen
A critical juncture for a common European defense policy
https://www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/military-unification/
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Shahin Vallée
The Atlantic
about 2 months ago
The mass unrest during the summer of 2020 “certainly did not cause the sacking of the Capitol,”
@chatterton.bsky.social
argues. “But that winter siege amounted to an outgrowth of the summer revolt—the rotten fruit of imitation.”
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To See How America Unraveled, Go Back Five Years
What the summer of 2020 wrought
https://bit.ly/3HbuSfw
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Une analyse fine de cette débâcle et de ce qu’elle appelle comme sursaut.
legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2025/07/2...
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L'Europe après le Jour de la Dépendance
« Le silence que l’Europe a opposé aux intimidations de Donald Trump a fait le tour du monde, résonnant comme l’aveu de notre impuissance. Il nous appartient désormais de redonner à l’Europe une voix ...
https://legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2025/07/29/le-jour-de-la-dependance/
about 2 months ago
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It was all written for a moment. This EU-US deal should not be a surprise
ip-quarterly.com/en/how-eu-bo...
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How the EU Botched its Trade Policy Response
Brussels has failed to get to grips with the second Trump administration. It needs to change tack and respond to Trump’s tariffs by meeting force with force.
https://ip-quarterly.com/en/how-eu-botched-its-trade-policy-response
2 months ago
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How the EU succumbed to Trump’s tariff steamroller
2 months ago
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Shahin Vallée
Sam Lowe
2 months ago
In what must be my most poorly timed newsletter publication time ever, this week’s MFN is about why it’s actually quite difficult to compare Japan’s deal with Trump and the UK’s deal with Trump. (Japan has seemingly done some clever things.)
mostfavourednation.substack.com/p/turning-ja...
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Turning Japanese
Who got the best deal?
https://mostfavourednation.substack.com/p/turning-japanese
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EU and US locked in talks ahead of key Trump meeting with von der Leyen
2 months ago
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Shahin Vallée
Martin Sandbu
2 months ago
Did you know that the bilateral current account between the EU and the US is roughly zero? You thought the EU had a massive surplus, didn't you, just like Donald Trump does?
on.ft.com/4eW25Ik
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J’ai signé. Je vous invite à le faire aussi.
add a skeleton here at some point
2 months ago
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David Dufresne
2 months ago
Non à la Loi Duplomb — Pour la santé, la sécurité, l’intelligence collective. - Non à la Loi Duplomb — Pour la santé, la sécurité, l’intelligence collective. - Plateforme des pétitions de l’Assemblée nationale
petitions.assemblee-nationale.fr/initiatives/...
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Sander Tordoir
2 months ago
Great new CER paper from tech expert Zach Meyers. Zach warns the EU against giving any tech concessions to team Trump like the UK did to clinch a trade 'deal' - for three key reasons. 1/2
www.cer.eu/insights/tra...
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In transatlantic trade talks, the EU must keep digital policy off the table
The UK has shifted some of its digital policies to appease the US president. But Brussels should adjust its tech agenda to boost its own competitiveness – not to cave in to Donald Trump.
https://www.cer.eu/insights/transatlantic-trade-talks-eu-must-keep-digital-policy-table
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Shahin Vallée
Council on Geostrategy
2 months ago
‘In an era of growing uncertainty in American politics…closer British-French nuclear cooperation is a prudent strategic hedge,’ argues @rgwhitman.bsky.social @kent.ac.uk
#BigAsk
#BritainsWorld
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How should Britain and France cooperate to realise the Northwood Declaration?
The Big Ask | No. 29.2025
https://www.britainsworld.org.uk/p/the-big-ask-29-2025
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Shahin Vallée
Clémentine Goldszal
2 months ago
« Massacres that would have caused a scandal a decade ago are now an almost daily occurrence. » Le bon récap de Adam Shatz
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Toby Nangle
2 months ago
🚨 But wait, do French OATs *REALLY* trade at a spread over Italian BTPS?
on.ft.com/44ARyyQ
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But wait, do French OATs REALLY trade at a spread over Italian BTPS?
Yes. And no.
https://on.ft.com/44ARyyQ
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Non, sire, c’est une contre révolution
https://5dlew.r.ah.d.sendibm5.com/mk/mr/sh/1t6AVsd2XFnIGF9tjy5QMHLlJl3NCt/obvxh07sKET2
2 months ago
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Shahin Vallée
Loic Cedelle
2 months ago
Bonjour, que pensez-vous de mon projet de carte? Utile ou pas pour les gens qui décident de se déplacer sans avion, pour les trajets pro et perso, au départ de Lyon?
@mael.kont.me
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28 minutes - ARTE
2 months ago
"Les marchés sont la seule corde de rappel efficace face à Trump", explique
@shahinvallee.bsky.social
, économiste et chercheur au Conseil allemand pour les Affaires étrangères. ⏯️ Cet extrait est issu de notre émission du 17 juillet 2025, disponible en replay :
tinyurl.com/28min170725
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Shahin Vallée
Magali Lafourcade
2 months ago
À lire ! La loi Duplomb… ou la promotion du cancer pour toutes et tous.
@sfoucart.bsky.social
signe cet article édifiant
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« L’adoption de la loi Duplomb constitue un moment de rupture démocratique inédit »
CHRONIQUE. La mobilisation d’ampleur contre le texte du sénateur de la Haute-Loire n’a pas pu empêcher son adoption mardi 8 juillet. Des sociétés savantes aux associations, tous n’ont rencontré qu’un ...
https://www.lemonde.fr/idees/article/2025/07/13/l-adoption-de-la-loi-duplomb-constitue-un-moment-de-rupture-democratique-inedit_6620969_3232.html
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Health Warning
Sectoral tariffs and the tariff-industrial complex
https://open.substack.com/pub/mostfavourednation/p/health-warning?r=f9ozb
2 months ago
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La loi Duplomb sur le fond et sur la forme
www.lemonde.fr/idees/articl...
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« L’adoption de la loi Duplomb constitue un moment de rupture démocratique inédit »
CHRONIQUE. La mobilisation d’ampleur contre le texte du sénateur de la Haute-Loire n’a pas pu empêcher son adoption mardi 8 juillet. Des sociétés savantes aux associations, tous n’ont rencontré qu’un ...
https://www.lemonde.fr/idees/article/2025/07/13/l-adoption-de-la-loi-duplomb-constitue-un-moment-de-rupture-democratique-inedit_6620969_3232.html
3 months ago
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Shahin Vallée
Council on Geostrategy
3 months ago
Should GCAP be opened to other countries? We asked six experts in this week’s Big Ask: ✍ @willfreer.bsky.social, Ben Goodwin, @henninghoff.bsky.social, @mcnamara-eoin.bsky.social, @salisbot.bsky.social and @shelter-jones.bsky.social
#BigAsk
#BritainsWorld
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Should GCAP be opened to other countries?
The Big Ask | No. 28.2025
https://www.britainsworld.org.uk/p/the-big-ask-28-2025
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Gabriel Zucman
3 months ago
An international call for action just got louder: Today, 7 Nobel Laureates have issued a powerful call for a minimum tax on the ultra-wealthy in Le Monde Here’s a quick breakdown of the debate—and where things stand globally 🧵
www.lemonde.fr/en/opinion/a...
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Tax on ultra-rich: 'France has the opportunity to lead the way,' say Nobel Prize-winning economists
OP-ED. As public deficits balloon and extreme wealth explode, creating a minimum tax on the assets of billionaires should be a priority, argue seven Nobel Prize-winning economists in an op-ed for Le M...
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/opinion/article/2025/07/07/tax-on-ultra-rich-france-has-the-opportunity-to-lead-the-way-say-nobel-prize-winning-economists_6743117_23.html
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Henning Hoff
3 months ago
Check out our new Who's Who (or soon will be) in German foreign policy poster––a quick and handy guide to all the new faces!
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Shahin Vallée
Jorge Tamames
3 months ago
A great column from
@shahinvallee.bsky.social
and
@josephdeweck.bsky.social
on how to raise defence spending while avoiding austerity.
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Justice rendue pour Remi Fraisse, 11 ans plus tard, la France est condamnée par la CEDH.
add a skeleton here at some point
3 months ago
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A fantastic job opening
add a skeleton here at some point
3 months ago
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