What to think of Trump's 2nd state visit? In my latest piece for @gmfus.bsky.social, I argue that it was a success -- but that doesn't mean the UK and US relationship will always be smooth. Thread: www.gmfus.org/news/calcula...

I can also think of some political appointees who did a truly excellent job as ambassadors. But often, they had experienced government before their appointment.

Shocked I tell you, shocked. www.politico.eu/article/pete...

💥 Scoop! - Trump crashed a meeting of US & EU officials to make the demand, according to three people briefed on the discussion. “We’re ready to go, ready to go right now, but we’re only going to do this if our European partners step up with us,” said one US official

With my colleagues Martin Quencez and @gesineweber.bsky.social, we analyse what the fall of the Bayrou government — and the appointment of Lecornu as the new PM — mean for France’s domestic and international politics. Spoiler: France’s problems aren’t going away. www.gmfus.org/news/frances...

Macron has just named former Defence Minister Sébastien Lecornu 🇫🇷 PM. Lecornu, known for his clear-eyed talk, has overseen France’s defence spending hikes and support to Ukraine. Problem: he’s from Macron’s majority. It’s unclear whether his straight talk will bridge factions.

„We have a land war on European continent. We are fully dependent on US. None of the EU members was ready to risk further escalation“. The way @sabineweyand.bsky.social explains EU-US-deal is exactly right. She explains EU‘s trade-offs & rationale — and doesn‘t put lipstick on a pig. (SZ-Dossier)

The US and the EU have just published a joint statement -- basically confirming & qualifying the EU-US July agreement struck in Scotland. Key takeaways from EU press conference (thread):

💥 "Il est bien trop tôt pour enterrer l'Europe qui a gardé des munitions pour d'éventuelles ripostes ultérieures." ➡️ trib.al/aTYogZj ✍️ Une tribune signée @georginaewright.bsky.social.

Rather remarkable to see the French government go from "US-EU deal is a humiliation" to - essentially - "US-EU deal avoided the worst, but the next steps are what matter". Exactly what other EU governments have been saying. (And yes, I know why the French said what they did. But still...)

A more realistic French take on the US-EU deal: www.lesechos.fr/idees-debats...

Really good piece by Sam highlighting some of the finer details of the EU-US deal only trade experts will be able to spot, and putting some of the criticism in perspective - including instances where the 15% tariffs on EU goods may be lower than the 10% one on UK goods:

For the love of God, Radio 4, the EU will NOT pay a 15% tax. US consumers will.

A successful trade deal requires 2 things: first, good content. On this, US-EU deal is probably as good as it cd have been, especially in absence of escalation and compared to full-blown trade war; second, a good sell. On this, the EU is not fairing well at all... 1/3

Trade alert - @aslak.bsky.social has done an excellent job at highlighting key aspects of the US-EU deal so I/others don’t have to (especially when on holiday ☀️).

'this summit showed what can be done when pragmatism prevails over posturing. After years of estrangement, the UK and France have found common ground...The opportunity is real. The challenge now is to sustain the momentum.' @georginaewright.bsky.social on the 🇬🇧🇫🇷 summit ukandeu.ac.uk/the-franco-b...

Given it was designed to respond to Trump 1, that’s not a bad shout (And yes, I know it was never intended to actually be used — but needs must, etc etc).

@georginaewright.bsky.social on the money, as usual.

My new piece on yesterday's Franco-British summit for @ukandeu.bsky.social : ukandeu.ac.uk/the-franco-b...

"This summit showed what can be done when pragmatism prevails over posturing. After years of estrangement, the UK and France have found common ground, and Europe is stronger for it." @georginaewright.bsky.social on the Franco-British relationship after Macron's visit ukandeu.ac.uk/the-franco-b...

“It feels like a first step towards a European nuclear umbrella, it really does.” Georgina Wright, Special Advisor to the German Marshall Fund, assesses the move by Britain & France towards greater nuclear cooperation. #Newsnight

On US-EU trade talks: unlikely there will be a fully-fledged deal. But I suspect there is an agreement to carry on talks (with certain conditions, à la UK-US deal). Question now is whether that is satisfactory for Trump — and for EU27. #trumptariffs

The President and the world’s richest man are ripping up businesses contracts over social media. Let that sink in.

No one could have predicted this fallout. No one.

"So we will be tough, but being a part of the Frugal Four is no longer the right place for us," Quite a statement from Danish Prime Minister, also with a view towards their upcoming EU Council Presidency. Given changes in Sweden and Finland on defence, the frugals might become quite a small club.

Let's watch the bond markets. EU may have to create a wide and deep sage haven (via EU wide bond issuance) to accommodate the flight from US Treasuries

President Trump has just threatened a 50% #tariff on imports from the EU starting 1 June (not clear whether this replaces, or comes on top of existing 10%). Why? He is unhappy with the slow progress in negotiations. What next? 1/2

On Monday 19 May, the UK and EU held their first summit -- five years after the end of Brexit negotiations. It is too early to call it a reset, but I do think it is a step in the right direction. My thoughts for @gmfus.bsky.social : www.gmfus.org/news/channel-narrows#

The UK and the EU have reached a new agreement which, both sides argue, will make it easier to trade, travel and defend the continent. Still need to wait on details, but some quick thoughts on why compromise ≠ necessarily loss of sov: thread 1/7

Note that the agreement on SAFE - the 150bn loan facility - comes in parallel to the EU-UK agreement, signalling that questions on how to integrate partners were central to the negotiations amongst member states:

🇷🇴🇪🇺 Pro-EU Mayor of Bucharest wins Romanian presidency in stunning reversal - defeating far-right frontrunner.

My 1st time at @icds-tallinn.bsky.social #LennartMeriConference did not disappoint. Extensive discussions on Ukraine, European security, role of US — but also China and global shifting order. Diversity of views/arguments & chance to see many friends. Do go to conf website to watch highlights.

Live at #LennartMeriConference @icds-tallinn.bsky.social another high level panel with 🇪🇪 PM @kristenmichalpm.bsky.social , @michaelkofman.bsky.social , @georginaewright.bsky.social & Torrey Taussig. On Ukraine aid and boots on the ground. Reality check badly needed though.

What I'm hearing too. Not surprising: negotiations often go to the wire when approaching a deadline. Suspect that if no agreement is reached, the summit declaration will still be upbeat. Both UK and EU want to show change -- and that they are united, even if Brexit differences remain.

🇫🇷 President Macron is addressing the nation. When asked abt extending France’s nuclear deterrent to rest of Europe, he responds: 1/ that there has always been a European dimension to nuclear deterrence, but that 🇫🇷 will not clarify doctrine to maintain strategic ambiguity..

Pope Francis has died www.lemonde.fr/disparitions...

I see many people are arguing that Trump’s reversal of tariffs today is proof that this was only ever about China. It’s wasn’t and it’s not. China was part of the intended “strategy” behind April 2 tariffs, never all of it.

I just can’t keep up… #tariffs

BTW let's just be clear that these numbers are utterly made up, adding in all sorts of random stuff. By these calculations the EU charges the US 4x the tariffs that Brazil does. Not "reciprocal" in any way whatsoever.

Right here we go. Trump announcing reciprocal tariffs on *all* countries in the world. Says the revenue will help pay off debt, bring manufacturing back to the US, bring down prices for consumers (hmm..), reduce trade deficit.

I can’t believe I am spending my evening waiting on tariff announcements — and yet, here we are.

Beyond thrilled to be joining @gmfus.bsky.social to focus on US-Europe relations at this pivotal time - deepening analysis on France, the EU and the UK. Having been a visiting fellow at GMF for nearly 5 years, I’ve seen the excellent work they do and I excited for this next step 1/3

Very much what I’ve been hearing, including on Hungary. Do give @mijrahman.bsky.social’s thread a read if you want to know what EU 🇪🇺 thinks about recent events and what options it is considering to protect Ukraine and itself.

FYI: as with all speeches, it’s worth listening in full (this is v much my take). The key for 🇫🇷 now will be to show that it can act on what it has set out. EU summit today shd provide interesting steps — though like all EU action, specifics will take a while longer to figure out

🇫🇷 President Macron has just addressed the nation. It was a good, clear-eyed & powerful speech. Quick summary (1/5):

This is a deeply uncomfortable watch and the only winners are Russia and other hostile countries. Time for Europe to step up and stop waiting on the US.

The young vote in Germany, by gender. 😳

Les crises se multiplient, sont concomitantes et demandent une réponse coordonnée et efficace de la 🇫🇷. Comment y arriver? L'excellent @joeguiffard.bsky.social propose un nouveau cadre institutionnel dans son dernier rapport pour l'Institut Montaigne. A lire, relire et méditer.

Can Europe alone defend Ukraine? What if both ends of the self-styled UK 'bridge' between Europe and US crumble? I discuss (gloomily) with @bronwenmaddox.bsky.social @georginaewright.bsky.social Orysia Lutsevych @chathamhouse.bsky.social www.chathamhouse.org/2025/02/inde...

Fascinating interview with Gen H.R. McMaster, Trump’s nat sec adviser (2017-18) on BBC R4 Today programme now. Basically confirms that Trump has a fascination for Putin but that “he learns conversationally” so “Europeans shd engage Trump as much as possible” to get their viewpoint across.