If Burnham is in place by 17 July, then 5 days into the job and he will be leading talks with the EU at the 22 July reset summit

For my friends abroad asking how can Starmer, with his stomping majority, be gone so soon? Below is a good explanation. IMO, Starmer took too long to demonstrate “change” (needed to do so in first 6 months in office), made some big u-turns & some bad decisions 1/2

🍿Makerfield by-election, France’s G7, Iran-US deal, EUCO, Brexit 10 yr anniversary. Lots to share and discuss, but I’m taking time out to focus on important non-work related issues. I’ll be back later this year & do plan to share analyses more regularly. Until then, have a great summer!

fascinated that the PM found out on Tuesday but told neither Cooper nor Jones, who both only found out yesterday it seems? what were no10 doing with the information, if not discussing it with the ministers who oversee the vetting process and the department in question?

This critique of 🇫🇷 is unwarranted: “A European government official said expectations were very low about [today’s summit on the strait of Hormuz] yielding anything concrete despite the “very French” attempt at organising a grand event” www.ft.com/content/a348... why?

🇭🇺🥳

Trump threatening to pull out of NATO. This wd be terrible for Europe, yet European leaders are keeping quiet. Why? 1) Never overreact: Trump has a habit of backtracking. EU has learned to wait before responding. 2) Scenario-plan: European leaders will be exploring options, while engaging US/NATO.

Good piece in FT detailing Macron's speech on French nuclear deterrence. Confirms that FR will: 1) Increase arsenal (without providing exact numbers as per FR doctrine) 2) For 1st time, talks of deploying strategic assets abroad (but as @hfayet.bsky.social notes: priority is on aircraft...) 1/3

Possibly. Or this was always a US-Israel (or US nudge for Israel to join) attack.

And yet, no-one should be surprised. Strike when the regime is at its weakest is definitely textbook Trump.

Unless your calculation is that Iran is pretty weak & may choose to attack a US army base — which would then, of course, justify US intervention.

Great thread of what a multi-speed Europe means in practice. It’s the key thing to come out of y’day’s informal EU summit on competitiveness: MS have given EU Commission the green light to explore different formats to move fwd on competitiveness& expect it to present a plan at March European Council

French trolling is just superb.

France's influence in Europe has declined since Macron dissolved Assemblée Nationale in June 2024. Two exceptions stand out: Ukraine and now Greenland, where Paris has been key in forging a strong European response. My thoughts for @nytimes.com: www.nytimes.com/2026/01/29/w...

And here we go again... this time on 2 February in London: www.ft.com/content/2be6...

Good thread on new Franco-German report on how to get more capital flowing to support European start-ups & scale-ups. Don't think 28th regime is the answer (too politically fraught) -- and agree the solution lies in allowing pension funds/others to do more risk-taking (but also politically tricky)

Trump’s threats since start of yr have changed thinking in Brussels. Doubt EU leaders will decide tonight to slap tariffs & cut market access — but they will ask EU Commission to accelerate thinking on retaliatory measures just in case US changes its mind. Better to be prepared than caught off guard

The reality, I think, was both. Soft diplomacy by some & willingness to go hard if that failed. And discussions with US business at Davos, I assume.

This, by @sophiabesch.bsky.social, is excellent & perfectly captures the Greenland debate in D.C. and in Brussels. Sophia's warnings are right: Europe must wake up & do more. I think it will -- and that Davos has significantly altered EU thinking on the US: carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...

The market had assumed that Trump wdn’t go through with threat and/or that Europe wd not respond. But last few weeks have changed Brussels’ approach to US administration. The feeling is that the President’s words cannot be fully trusted & that all responses must now be seriously considered.

💯. Hence why it would be wrong not to prepare a strong European response.

Listening to current speech at Davos. I feel so tired…

US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick on Why the Trump administration is going to Davos. Are they planning to announce something tomorrow?

No-one, I repeat, no-one should be surprised by US strikes on #Venezuela. Why? Quick thread.

I very much agree with your comments as quoted here. It is fascinating to see the shifting roles of Germany and France in EU debates. But at least they were able to come together on a solution to Ukraine financing. My question is how will the UK contribute to the overall effort on this new basis?

The EU faces many challenges. Paradoxically, at a moment when the Union has never felt more French — with member states leaning into security and industrial policy — France’s positive & catalysing influence is absent. Highly recommend this excellent @financialtimes.com: www.ft.com/content/99d2...

How can the EU build stronger resilience amid global power shifts & unprecedented threats to its democracy, economy, security? Join us on 10 Dec for a discussion w/ excellent speakers @dschwarzer.bsky.social @shahinvallee.bsky.social @georginaewright.bsky.social www.delorscentre.eu/en/events-at...

Is it though? It had been on the cards though during negs - until UK refused dynamic alignment/SPS. Remember Barnier's staircase? EU's position has always been "full access = accept EU rules" or "partial access = mix of EU rules + financial contribution". Just ask Switzerland.

A curious approach from people who don't like the concept of immigration

The US’ proximity to Russia &, I assume, its decision to rewrite some of its intelligence gathering away from Europe to focus on other parts of the world, will inevitably lead to stronger European intelligence coordination. But I still don’t see the EU ever playing that role of coordinator.

🔴 Voici le nouveau #gouvernement 👇

Lecornu may well get a budget through. But the damage for French politics is… real.

IMHO, Macron should not have named Lecornu PM tonight.

Annnnnd… He’s back 🤣. President names Sébastien Lecornu PM (again).

Hmm. French MEPs aren’t huge fans of VDL — and they certainly don’t like her style of leadership. So I think this has less to do with Macron, and more to do with VDL herself.

Great to contribute to this weeks TTP. I make the point France's political permacrisis is bad news for European rearmament efforts. I'm in excellent company too @georginaewright.bsky.social @dschwarzer.bsky.social.

Outgoing French PM Sébastien Lecornu gave an interview this evening on French TV. Main points: 1. Macron cd nominate a new PM in next 48h (it won't be Lecornu). This also means no elections. 2. He thinks a budget can be adopted (enough common ground) 3. Thinks no budget by end of yr wd be dramatic

I did not see Macron asking Lecornu to try and form another government as a 4th option — but here we are. On Wednesday, Lecornu will inform Macron whether this has been possible…

What France's collapse means for EU trade policy - my quick take: www.politico.eu/article/fran...

French PM resigns & no-one shd be surprised. Majority of MPs saw his appointment as lacking legitimacy (Macron party is far from biggest in parliament). Lecornu took several weeks to appoint a government - which, upon announcement last night, was almost identical to last. Huge anger in response.

Interesting: www.nytimes.com/2025/09/26/w... My sense is that progressive parties don't necessarily lack ideas (though some do) -- but that they tend to be quite (/really) bad at communicating those ideas.

The German Chancellor calls on Europeans to massively step up their support to Ukraine, sets out how this can be done (new common borrowing) & why it matters to do this now. The German leadership we’ve been long been looking for: www.ft.com/content/3aac...

🤯

Ridiculous claim — and even more ridiculous that Sadiq Khan continues to be such a point of focus for President Trump.

What to think of Trump's 2nd state visit? In my latest piece for @gmfus.bsky.social, I argue that it was a success -- but that doesn't mean the UK and US relationship will always be smooth. Thread: www.gmfus.org/news/calcula...

I can also think of some political appointees who did a truly excellent job as ambassadors. But often, they had experienced government before their appointment.

Shocked I tell you, shocked. www.politico.eu/article/pete...

💥 Scoop! - Trump crashed a meeting of US & EU officials to make the demand, according to three people briefed on the discussion. “We’re ready to go, ready to go right now, but we’re only going to do this if our European partners step up with us,” said one US official

With my colleagues Martin Quencez and @gesineweber.bsky.social, we analyse what the fall of the Bayrou government — and the appointment of Lecornu as the new PM — mean for France’s domestic and international politics. Spoiler: France’s problems aren’t going away. www.gmfus.org/news/frances...

Macron has just named former Defence Minister Sébastien Lecornu 🇫🇷 PM. Lecornu, known for his clear-eyed talk, has overseen France’s defence spending hikes and support to Ukraine. Problem: he’s from Macron’s majority. It’s unclear whether his straight talk will bridge factions.