The broad selloff has broken the market's "protection through rotation" routine, the S&P 500 cracks the bottom of the YTD range. Old trader voodoo says breaking the December low early the next year is a bad omen; we just did. Still only 4% off a record high, getting as oversold as at recent lows.

History says regional military conflicts don't end bull markets. Flight from risk tends to be brief if the economy/market isn't already in a downturn. Still, markets have been in an uneasy equilibrium: Early-cycle reflation hopes, late-cycle credit fissures, existential AI concerns. New column.

The pollsters at Quinnipiac doing the "long-time fan, first-time caller" thing on Pennsylvania NFL quarterbacks and coaches. Should prompt nothing but sane, normal discourse...

Yes, NVDA shares are starting to look inexpensive vs. current earnings and reliably projected profits over the next year. The market is wary that the company might be "over-earning" and present demand trends can't be extrapolated. Similar to how Apple traded through the first iPhone mega-cycle...

Yes, NVDA shares are starting to look inexpensive vs. current earnings and reliably projected profits over the next year. The market is wary that the company might be "over-earning" and present demand trends can't be extrapolated. Similar to how Apple traded through the first iPhone mega-cycle...

Yes, NVDA shares are starting to look inexpensive vs. current earnings and reliably projected profits over the next year. The market is wary that the company might be "over-earning" and present demand trends can't be extrapolated. Similar to how Apple traded through the first iPhone mega-cycle...

Another nasty mechanical whipsaw day in the market, momentum getting upended in both directions. The S&P 500 worst performers year-to-date are, on average up big. Vice versa with the YTD leaders....

Nvidia results always trigger a high alert day for Law of Large Numbers usage violations. LoLN doesn't describe the difficulty of an already huge value to continue growing quickly. Yes, "everyone" uses it in this way. Yes, Investopedia capitulated and blessed this misuse. Doesn't make it right.

Nvidia heading into its earnings report carving out a classic Pink pattern: "Not broken just bent, just give me a reason..."

Which brings to mind Deluxe Corp. (DLX) - printer of checks since 1915 - and the way radically disrupted companies can adapt. In '26, non-printing revenue will exceed printing in the sales mix. Growth segments are data services, B2B payments - wait, maybe it's time for yet another reinvention...

The erratic, divergent action underneath range-bound indexes has been the story of this market for months, and there are plenty of ways to portray it. Here's the High-Low index from Ned Davis Research that shows the market vastly "out of gear," meaning a high number of stocks making highs AND lows.

So much going on yet the market stays stuck. Did Wall Street squander its strongest seasonal period and massive inflows just to hold steady? Or is this churn how risk is diffused and absorbed? Weekly column on a market caught between opposing currents and still somehow keeping its head above water.

Swinging by CNBC Overtime just after 4pm ET. New location here at NASDAQ. Check it out!

Another week when “It could’ve been worse” passes for a victory cry on Wall Street, as traders navigate mini-crashes rolling through perceived AI-exposed sectors and investors try to draw nourishment from relative returns. Is a ”broader” market a better market? New column, free with email signup.

Another week when “It could’ve been worse” passes for a victory cry on Wall Street, as traders navigate mini-crashes rolling through perceived AI-exposed sectors and investors try to draw nourishment from relative returns. Is a ”broader” market a better market? New column, free with email signup.

Hold my calls, Mike Torrez will be serving up that cookie to Dent around 3:30pm today...

Can't forgive the Piper analyst for putting this song in my head first thing in the morning....

Burry neglected to cite another 100-year issuer in 1997: JC Penney. That paper did not survive 30 years. That said, some solvent issuers have century bonds outstanding. FedEx's $240m notes due July 2097 trade fine, current yield 6.4%. Real story is insatiable insurance-company demand for duration.

The "out with the new, in with the old" trade is the rage, as investors sell tech businesses whose competitive advantage can fit on a thumb drive to buy industrials with claims on scarce physical assets. A sustainable rotation? Can the tape keep absorbing isolated volatility eruptions? New column.

The forecast has the real feel temp jumping straight from 1 degree to 10 from 7:29am to 7:32am tomorrow. That could leave a gap on the chart that will have to be filled later to confirm the uptrend, but I look forward to the short-term bump regardless…

I hereby propose an amendment to the market-chatter bylaws to make 50k the last Dow Jones Industrial Average threshold we commemorate until 55,000 and then note only 5,000-point landmarks thereafter.

Brisk little bounce in the S&P 500 right up to the 50-day moving average for the S&P 500, waiting to see whether the urgent quant-fund rebalancing and investment-factor pinball of the past few days is done or about to re-emerge...

“Want to buy a slug of stateless libertarian anti-corporate digital money at a 45% discount to where it peaked four months ago? Just scan the QR code on this subway ad paid for by Blackrock…”

Utter buying panic in Walmart. The stock now topping 43x forward earnings for the next 12 months. Echo of last year's momentum stampede into Costco (which peaked on Feb. 13)?

Why would a bailout be necessary when "one bitcoin still equals one bitcoin," as the acolytes like to say?

The way the market continues to remain supported through rotation is creditable for sure. And I know everyone finds it somehow virtuous to see a less-concentrated tape with value over growth, cyclical beating tech and equal weight outpacing market-cap weight....

It's not near the top of the list of concerns about AI, but the way the buildout has everyone using "compute" as a noun is so grating. A new hill to defend (futilely).

Quick note on Kevin Warsh's views on the Fed balance sheet. To the degree the balance sheet ever created major distortions in markets, economy or fiscal path - and I'm not persuaded it has - then those effects have radically diminished. Balance sheet relative to all Federal debt at post-GFC lows.

An unusually kinetic capital-markets backdrop - momentum blowoffs in metals and memory chips, dollar bouncing from multiyear lows, hundreds of billions in AI fundraising in the wings - has so far spared the core equity indexes. For how long? New column with the market setup for the week...

Usually this sentiment stuff is not a timely cue for market moves, but as of yesterday the long-running Investors Intelligence survey showed the ratio of Bulls to bears rise to 4x and into the 95th percentile of all readings. (Chart from Strategas Research)

The unifying feature of the momentum stampedes in memory/ metals is a viral story of acute physical scarcity. True/sustainable or not, a tale of squeeze dynamics/forced buying activates these aggressive parabolic moves. Also see constant opening pops/reversals in MU out of overnight Asia trade.

Palantir shares haven't kissed the 200-day moving average in about two years, getting close. The stock also continues to move in lockstep with Robinhood. Right or wrong, the market views PLTR as a close proxy for amateur-trader risk appetite...

I condemn this display of sportswriter bias against Wesleyan alumni and the school's venerable football legacy.

As the bull market moves through its fourth year, its animating narrative has changed: From "AI-over-all" to old-economy reacceleration. From disinflationary soft landing and easy Fed to "run it hot" nominal GDP surge. From "hated rally" to wild retail-investor aggression. New column.

Only two months and three football games to go before baseball comes to the rescue...

The murmuring about how busted Bitcoin looks relative to either gold or speculative tech stocks is getting louder. Below is my take from a column a month ago. Is there a chance bitcoin has become "normie" money with a taint of Millennial cringe, like skinny jeans. www.cnbc.com/2025/12/20/m...

Sphere belongs in the "Boomers will spend to the end" index. Of course, the stock has more than doubled in a year, in part a short-squeezy move. (Unlike in the NFL playoffs, at the Sphere fans can still go see the Eagles live this month...)

"LOOK AT THAT MOVE IN NATURAL GAS!" they yell, as the price lifts to its 200-day average and the midpoint of its decade-long range...

Treasuries bid since that headline about the Danish pension fund selling US debt. Overall, markets are trying to defend a key boundaries: 10-year Treasury yield topped at 4.3%, S&P 500 bottomed so far a few points above the 50-day moving average. Traders well aware of of de-escalation potential.

When this breaks it almost surely won't go gently...

Is wishful thinking one of AI's blind spots too? Gemini has Davos 2026 over with already...

Wall Street’s start to 2026 has been like the scripted first drive in a football game, the offense in rhythm with a balanced attack to take an early lead. Everyone expects a "run it hot" economy and the market is rushing to price it in. Can it stay this easy? New column, free with email signup.

Wall Street’s start to 2026 has been like the scripted first drive in a football game, the offense in rhythm with a balanced attack to take an early lead. Everyone expects a "run it hot" economy and the market is rushing to price it in. Can it stay this easy? New column, free with email signup.

The cold fusion of finance bsky.app/profile/down...

The Rule of 40 (which says software companies should have a growth rate + profit margin = 40+) always seemed an arbitrary bit of VC puffery. Now it's proliferating to a point of absurdity, a Truist analyst works to justify a new Buy rating on Palantir at 67x forward sales. A rule for every number?

A small thing, but the keepers of the Dow Jones Industrial Average must be hoping/begging Goldman Sachs will split its stock. Near $1,000/share, has a slightly smaller market cap than Coca-Cola yet has 14x the impact on DJIA due to its archaic price-weighting scheme. GS = 40% of the DJIA gain today.

Venezuela doesn't rank among the core issues for the stock market, outside of some cynical/opportnistic moves in the energy sector. Key questions: Is the market's message of a coming economic pickup reliable? Has Big Tech been resting or stalling? Why no worry over elevated valuations? New column.

As we just teased on the air, the identity of the #MysteryBroker will be revealed tomorrow when he joins me on CNBC's Closing Bell at 3pm Eastern. He'll be offering a fairly provocative market outlook as well. Here's some background on this source, whom I've quoted since 2009.

The market’s benign churn has left a sort of bland baseline bullishness for 2026 intact. A few questions on possible swing factors: Would a “broader” market truly be better? Can huge onrushing demand for AI capital be met? Is bitcoin now “normie” money with less speculative juice? New column.