Apollo today noting the number of ETFs exceeds that of stocks, as if this is something to fret over. The ETF industry has surely become a gimmicky runaway marketing juggernaut. But from a market-structure perspective it's no great worry. My response below from when indexes first eclipsed equities.

Headline-writing fail here, a "tight job market" is the opposite of a weak one...

So far the needed cooling-off of the AI-hardware theme is being absorbed by fitful churn rather than an urgent rush out stocks. But the scale of AI spend, the market's reliance on it and the potential strain on economic resources and capital markets prompt some big structural questions. New column.

He filed too late? What did Musk think this lawsuit was, notice to the SEC that he'd acquired more than 5% of Twitter?

The now-ubiquitous idea that "markets always test a new Fed chair" is overstated. Bernanke started early in 2006, a year before the GFC cracks really opened up. Yellen's debut in early 2014 was in a phase of relative macro calm. But somewhat fun that Powell's first day was Volmageddon Monday...

Cisco is the latest old dog of tech learning new tricks, thanks to AI-driven demand for its hardware. The stock has finally overtaken its 2000 peak, set when it was the Nvidia of its day. But its market cap is well below peak becauSe Cisco spent the past 25 years buying back almost half its shares.

Bears: "It's '99, sell tech." Bulls: "It's '99, buy tech." It's a bit like '99 in semi insanity, tech dominance, some erratic vibrations. Unlike it in crucial ways. But of course, we're not guaranteed a phase that mimics that frenzy which preceded a lost decade. New column, free with email signup.

This should placate everyone, we know how good Americans are at weighing counterfactuals when it comes to allocating blame for inflationary episodes…

This market continues to shift within the AI-buildout theme toward the area of maximum conviction. Which has also meant moving down the value chain from the more sophisticated processors and toward scarce memory chips. Micron is now outperforming Nvidia since the launch of ChatGPT...

Mentioned on air a few minutes ago one odd element of the current tech cycle: The "WORK HARDER, NOT SMARTER" dynamic at its core. Brute-force sprending on physical computing capacity is now seen as as the main near-term edge, with "smarter" promised prodictivity gains...eventually. (Via JP Morgan)

Berkshire Hathaway CEO Greg Abel refers to the company's key concentrated stock positions (Apple, American Express, Coca-Cola, Moody's) as the Core Four, clearly trying to borrow some scrap of legitimacy and greatness from the Yankees 1990s dynasty...

In Omaha to cover the Berkshire annual meeting, the first with Greg Abel, Warren Buffett’s successor, as CEO. A long line quickly formed to get selfies with the new boss when he hit the exhibit hall. We’ll see how long a leash the market gives him after a soft patch in the stock’s performance…

Starting to view this as the private sector's version of Social Security, in which the young fund the consumption of retirees. In this case it's aggressive call buyers chasing short-term payouts juicing the option premiums that these ETFs collect to deliver synthetic income to yield investors.

The furious reversal rally in the stock market has the S&P 500 carving out a rare technical formation called "The Bollinger Bands Are Drunk..."

Subway ads playing off the latest NYC affordability crisis...

Go ahead and ridicule, get it out of your system. Just standard bull-market stuff, shell companies reborn as plays on a current craze. Such mini-manias do more to funnel mindless speculative flow away from the core of the market - where it could do more damage - than to stoke dangerous imbalances.

“This never happened. It will shock you how much it never happened.”

Another bit of data supporting the idea that retail traders are as susceptible as ever to human nature and crowd psychology. According to Citadel, retail players turned heavy net sellers last week, perhaps suggesting near-term capitulation. They bought the the highs hand over fist in late January.

It's a season of the year when people of several religious traditions are ritually reciting ancient articles of faith, such as "Markets panic until policy makers panic..."

As I've said for a couple years, a broader market isn't a safer or more rewarding one. But FWIW, the many continue to hold up better than the few. Equal-weighted S&P 500 back to a relative high vs. the market-cap-weighted version, outperforming by more than eight percentage points over five months.

We’re at that point in a market retrenchment when investors begin to wonder if the early alarmists are the true realists. Markets have been sliding along a probability spectrum from TACO to quagmire. Where we stand to start the week, as tape readers look for "more extreme extremes." New column.

Deja vu is a trick of the mind, right? Circumstances not exactly the same, but last year on this date S&P 500 was sliding from an early-year peak as investors debated how much disruption was priced in (then tariffs, now Iran/oil). Off 7.3% then, 7.5% now. Posting now to inoculate against a rerun.

This hits at a trend we discussed on yesterday's 4pm show: A strong theme of late-cycle permissiveness/corner-cutting at play in tofay's market. Retail funds formed to own overgrown AI startups, index providers looking to speed huge AI IPOs into benchmarks, SEC reducing quarterly reporting mandates.

Let's stop lionizing retail traders for supposedly buying every dip with courage and aplomb. Aggresive retail buying was nowhere to be found in the days leading into last week's market lows. As ever, they gorged at the highs and one sign that a bounce was due was small traders fleeing. Via Citi...

All of the skepticism about the crediblity of ceasefire-talk claims and all the concerns over the complication of recovering energy flow, etc., are valid and proper. But if you don't see there's at least signal value in the President wanting a path out, just stop opining on reflex market reactions.

Given how stretched stocks were to the downside, the reflex surge to the de-escalatory Trump post makes perfect sense. It so far has just rcovered the downside from Thursday-Friday. The 20-day moving average, just above, is often where a bounce tells you if it's a dead cat or not...

The market at a dramatic plot point, ned to see how the third act resolves...

Everyone immediately decided the market bounced on a flimsy untrustworthy headline, I guess that settles it then. Because a market that grabs for any faint excuse to stop going down can't be telling us anything worth listening to. Crude traders must also have been duped, oil slipping 3%...

President Trump: "The S&P 500 had just hit 7000, they said that was even more impossible than the Dow hitting 50,000." Wall Street strategists' year-ahead S&P targets coming into 2026 ranged from a low of 7100 to a high of 8100.

Fed Chair Powell describing the policy dot plot while also pandering to a room full of reporters on deadline who know the feeling: "You gotta write something down and this is what people wrote down."

Mets' hedge-fund-manager owner trying to buy his way out of a losing position, always works. On the other side, it remains unconscionable that the Steinbrenners run the Yankees near breakeven rather than spending more in line with their resources...

The market continues to operate pretty mechanically, each big-cap index down in lockstep today. The jump in event-driven volatility prompted an incremental step-back from risk, not an emotional flight. The rotational muscle memory (sell one thing, buy another) is ingrained. Unstable equilibrium.

The broad selloff has broken the market's "protection through rotation" routine, the S&P 500 cracks the bottom of the YTD range. Old trader voodoo says breaking the December low early the next year is a bad omen; we just did. Still only 4% off a record high, getting as oversold as at recent lows.

History says regional military conflicts don't end bull markets. Flight from risk tends to be brief if the economy/market isn't already in a downturn. Still, markets have been in an uneasy equilibrium: Early-cycle reflation hopes, late-cycle credit fissures, existential AI concerns. New column.

The pollsters at Quinnipiac doing the "long-time fan, first-time caller" thing on Pennsylvania NFL quarterbacks and coaches. Should prompt nothing but sane, normal discourse...

Yes, NVDA shares are starting to look inexpensive vs. current earnings and reliably projected profits over the next year. The market is wary that the company might be "over-earning" and present demand trends can't be extrapolated. Similar to how Apple traded through the first iPhone mega-cycle...

Yes, NVDA shares are starting to look inexpensive vs. current earnings and reliably projected profits over the next year. The market is wary that the company might be "over-earning" and present demand trends can't be extrapolated. Similar to how Apple traded through the first iPhone mega-cycle...

Yes, NVDA shares are starting to look inexpensive vs. current earnings and reliably projected profits over the next year. The market is wary that the company might be "over-earning" and present demand trends can't be extrapolated. Similar to how Apple traded through the first iPhone mega-cycle...

Another nasty mechanical whipsaw day in the market, momentum getting upended in both directions. The S&P 500 worst performers year-to-date are, on average up big. Vice versa with the YTD leaders....

Nvidia results always trigger a high alert day for Law of Large Numbers usage violations. LoLN doesn't describe the difficulty of an already huge value to continue growing quickly. Yes, "everyone" uses it in this way. Yes, Investopedia capitulated and blessed this misuse. Doesn't make it right.

Nvidia heading into its earnings report carving out a classic Pink pattern: "Not broken just bent, just give me a reason..."

Which brings to mind Deluxe Corp. (DLX) - printer of checks since 1915 - and the way radically disrupted companies can adapt. In '26, non-printing revenue will exceed printing in the sales mix. Growth segments are data services, B2B payments - wait, maybe it's time for yet another reinvention...

The erratic, divergent action underneath range-bound indexes has been the story of this market for months, and there are plenty of ways to portray it. Here's the High-Low index from Ned Davis Research that shows the market vastly "out of gear," meaning a high number of stocks making highs AND lows.

So much going on yet the market stays stuck. Did Wall Street squander its strongest seasonal period and massive inflows just to hold steady? Or is this churn how risk is diffused and absorbed? Weekly column on a market caught between opposing currents and still somehow keeping its head above water.

Swinging by CNBC Overtime just after 4pm ET. New location here at NASDAQ. Check it out!

Another week when “It could’ve been worse” passes for a victory cry on Wall Street, as traders navigate mini-crashes rolling through perceived AI-exposed sectors and investors try to draw nourishment from relative returns. Is a ”broader” market a better market? New column, free with email signup.

Another week when “It could’ve been worse” passes for a victory cry on Wall Street, as traders navigate mini-crashes rolling through perceived AI-exposed sectors and investors try to draw nourishment from relative returns. Is a ”broader” market a better market? New column, free with email signup.

Hold my calls, Mike Torrez will be serving up that cookie to Dent around 3:30pm today...

Can't forgive the Piper analyst for putting this song in my head first thing in the morning....