🔥Let's check in and see how much December temperatures have changed (trend) over the last 75 years. 🔥

Hurricane Melissa produced the fastest hurricane winds to be recorded by a dropsonde, verified by reviewing data at NSF NCAR! Hurricane Melissa’s 252 mph wind gust surpassed the previous record from Typhoon Megi over the Western Pacific in 2010, where a dropsonde measured wind gusts of 248 mph.

NEW: Epstein survivors release the most powerful PSA I have ever seen. Make this go viral so every member of the House of Representatives sees it.

The 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season officially ends on November 30, but the outlook is very quiet out there, so it very likely ended on October 31 this year. Overall, it was a slightly above-average season with some strange characteristics.

Temperatures have warmed across the contiguous United States over the last five decades or so during the months of December through February (a rapidly warming season)... Check out @climatecentral.org's winter package for more information and graphics: www.climatecentral.org/climate-matt... ❄️🥵

Super vivid colors and now visible to the naked eye. Knoxville, TN.

Faint aurora visible with a long exposure in Knoxville, TN!

Snow blankets the Great Smoky Mountains from the recent intrusion of winter weather into the southern US. Above freezing temperatures today are slowly melting away the snow cover.

Season's first snow showers (with leaves still on the trees!) in the foothills of the Smokies outside of Knoxville today. Pardon the really awful video quality. Compression, etc.

I first wrote and cron’d the script that makes these @NWSSPC upper air maps in November 1998. It’s been running and making the twice-daily UA maps for the past 27 years at this URL: www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/. That’s over 138,000 maps online and it’s still going!

This is a wild forecast discussion from NWS Chicago this morning. mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.ph...

8 months ago I had a vision: what if we had a unified, track-based dataset of all severe events? Still a lot of improvements I can make to the algorithm itself, but otherwise, looks like we have one now. I can't wait to see what we can do with this 👀

Out of all the stats that will be in history books from Melissa, this is the most astounding to me. GLM data was recording a peak flash rate of 700 strikes per minute — nearly 12 per second — as it made landfall on Jamaica. That’s rewriting our understanding flash density in tropical cyclones.

Multi-panel view of the last few days of Hurricane Melissa: ↖️ GOES-19 infrared brightness temp ↗️ GOES-19 visible satellite ↙️ Hurricane hunter planes & flight paths ↘️ Recon-derived flight level wind swath ⬇️ Estimated minimum pressure from recon dropsondes

Thanks to some vigilant friends out there, I have a nearly-complete 87-hour radar loop of #Melissa 's approach to #Jamaica. The loop abruptly ends when the radar is lost (either loss of communication with it or loss of the actual structure). bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/radar/

Time-lapse of #Melissa becoming one of the strongest cyclones ever recorded in the Atlantic basin. #hurricanemelissa #wx

Satellite loop of #Melissa reorganizing after exiting Jamaica

Hurricane Melissa this morning up until landfall. Just incredible imagery of an historic storm.

#Melissa's landfall intensity of 185 mph/892 mb ties it with the Florida Key's Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 as the record minimum pressure of any TC making landfall *anywhere* the NATL basin. I feel for the residents of #Jamaica 😞 Zoomed in G19 visible meso loop courtesy of @cyclonicwx.bsky.social

12:24 PM EDT, 10/28: Infrared satellite imagery as #HurricaneMelissa skirts the Jamaican shore. The large feeder outer band, and symmetry of the core of the storm, is a classic example of a strong tropical cyclone.

Echoing colleagues: Think before you (re)post. #Melissa is about to impact a relatively poor part of Jamaica. I doubt we will know the true extent of the devastation for days or weeks. Information vacuums fill with disinformation. Expect a lot of “breaking wind” on SM. Map source: World Bank

Looking back at the rapid intensification of #Melissa, two things really stand out to me: 1) there were *5* consecutive six-hourly periods of RI 2) an RI period began when the storm was already at Category 4 intensity The red entries here highlight when an RI period began (30+ kt in 24 hr).

1-minute #GOES19/#GOESEast Visible and Infrared images with plots of GLM Flash Points showed prolific lightning activity within the inner eyewall of Category 5 Hurricane #Melissa as it approaches the SW coast of Jamaica. Low-altitude mesovortices persist within the eye.

10:25 AM EDT, 10/28: #HurricaneMelissa dropsonde finds surface winds of 198 MPH in southern eyewall.

Wow. This is easily the most ridiculous dropsonde I’ve ever seen. 188 knot mean winds in the low-levels with gusts over 250 mph Absolutely scary and historic hurricane headed into SW Jamaica this morning

10AM #Melissa Update: @53rdWRS and @NOAA_HurrHunter Hurricane Hunter aircraft find that Melissa continues to strengthen. Catastrophic winds are moving onshore southern Jamaica. THIS IS THE LAST CHANCE TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE! For more updates vis... https://x.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1983173551319654668

892 mb and 185 mph. Very few places in the world in modern history have ever experienced what Jamaica is experiencing right now. Hurricanes of this magnitude directly hitting a major land mass are exceptionally rare.

And to think, the theoretical Maximum Potential Intensity in this area is somewhere around 875 mb (+/-), and Melissa is currently sporting observed pressures of roughly 892-893 mb… Makes one wonder just how close to the physical limit Melissa will get. We’ll have a lot to learn from this one storm.

With a central pressure down to 896mb as of 9am EDT, #Melissa has joined the elite sub-900mb group of Atlantic hurricanes... it is now one of just seven: Wilma 2005: 882mb Gilbert 1988: 888mb Labor Day 1935: 892mb Rita 2005: 895mb Milton 2024: 895mb Melissa 2025: 896mb Allen 1980: 899mb

#Melissa unfortunately is still intensifying. A 9am EDT Tropical Cyclone Update indicates that winds are up to 180 mph, with an estimated minimum pressure of 896 mb. You can see how GLM lightning has 📈 in the past hour, encircling the eye, with eye WV temp still increasing!

8:53 AM EDT, 10/28: #HurricaneMelissa is strengthening right up to landfall over #Jamaica, which will be the latest #Category5 landfall for the #AtlanticBasin. Maximum sustained winds of 175 MPH, and 901 mb central pressure (possibly lower) are also among the top 10 intensities. Godspeed #Jamaica.

This meso loop of #Melissa from CIRA is absolutely stunning at it makes its closes in on landfall in southwestern Jamaica. rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/... #hurricanemelissa

You VERY rarely ever see a satellite presentation like this anywhere in the world. And you certainly don't expect to see it this close to a mountainous island. As of 5am EDT on Tuesday, #Melissa is the 8th strongest Atlantic hurricane on record by central pressure (901 mb).

At 901 millibars minimum central barometric pressure, #Melissa is the strongest hurricane ever recorded so late in a season in the Atlantic. It is also the 8th strongest Atlantic #hurricane during any part of the season. It is now sadly moving north-northeast towards #Jamaica.

What we're witnessing with #Melissa is ultra rare in the history of known hurricanes in the Atlantic. This level of sustained intensity and feasting on every joule of ocean heat content without any real disruption is incredible. Not hyperbole: Jamaica is facing a generational catastrophic event.

Just when you think Hurricane Melissa is done intensifying, it says, “Are you sure?” Drop in central pressure measured by both NOAA and AF between center fixes suggests Melissa may incredibly be intensifying further.

Pretty harrowing recent image from #Melissa. That is a near-symmetric CDO with at least -80°C cloud top temperatures and a very polished eye. A point to note though — the eye has continued to wobble around, and at least in the last hour or so, it’s unclear if there is appreciable forward motion.

Here is a 54h WV loop of #Melissa as it underwent rapid intensification from a 60 kt TS ➡️ 150 kt cat 5 #Hurricane. Pay attention to how "warm" eye becomes at the end of the loop which ends at 18 UTC 27 Oct. Color scale ends at -5C & eye temp on the last few frames was warmer than that 🤯

Latest update on #Melissa with thanks to @drkimwood.bsky.social and @stevebowen.bsky.social for some key facts that I highlighted. Devastating night coming for Jamaica. 😥 open.substack.com/pub/balanced...

Hurricane Melissa has just broken the record for the driest eye ever observed in a tropical cyclone, with a temperature of -4.75°C. This is nothing short of astronomical.

The 2pm ET public update advisory for Hurricane Melissa has the central pressure down to 906 mb with peak winds of 175 mph. This makes Melissa the 10th strongest hurricane in record in the Atlantic Basin.

From a crewmember on yesterday's Teal 74 mission into now-Category 5 Hurricane #Melissa. As clear of an eye as you will see in the Atlantic basin.

The monster eye at the center of a still strengthening Hurricane Melissa.

27 Oct 11AM EDT: @NOAA_HurrHunter @53rdWRS find #Melissa Stronger. Catastrophic and life-threatening winds, flooding, and storm surge expected on Jamaica tonight and early Tuesday. Here are the latest Key Messages. https://x.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1982824355416449488

I've seen a lot of dropsondes over my years, and a peak wind of 210kt - even at the top of/just beyond the boundary layer - is wild to see. Might be up there in the ranks of all-time strongest dropsonde-measured gusts as well.

NOAA TDR showing evidence that a secondary eyewall is beginning to form, seen by the ring of larger vorticity and vertical velocities outside the inner eyewall. This signals Melissa has likely peaked in intensity, but the inner core wind field will begin to expand.

Stunning satellite imagery of Hurricane Melissa tonight.

10/27 5am EDT: #Melissa has strengthened to a Category 5 hurricane with 160 mph winds and a 917 mb central pressure, confirmed by the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters. Conditions in #Jamaica will rapidly deteriorate later today and tonight.... https://x.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1982734927939457124

Seeing the eye steadily warm/dry out from where it was 4 hours ago (1430Z) to where it is now (1830Z) is another clear sign of #Melissa strengthening. Each HH pass through the eye is showing a warming/drier mid-level layer. And a lower pressure reading each time, of course.