8 months ago I had a vision: what if we had a unified, track-based dataset of all severe events? Still a lot of improvements I can make to the algorithm itself, but otherwise, looks like we have one now. I can't wait to see what we can do with this 👀

Tornado tracks by rating (left) and duration (right) While highly rated/long-tracked tornadoes are biased towards the Southeast, long-duration tors are found even up to the High Plains. Credit to @theasandmael.bsky.social for her incredible dataset!!

I was going to wait until the shutdown was over but the cat is out if the bag. My first journal article is now live! Convective Mode Classification and Distribution of Contiguous United States Tornado Events from 2003–2023 in: Weather and Forecasting - Ahead of print share.google/M3ty4pVs5Tld...

Next up, wind swaths! 🌬💨 This was created solely using report clustering (no other gridded data). Plenty of events across the entire US, but can see the most intense storms from the Great Plains into the Midwest! 🟦

Ever wondered how hailstorms vary across the year? Here's all radar-estimated hail swaths by month since 2011. Love seeing the northwest flow monsters come alive June-August! [MRMS MESH > .75", colored by max hail size]

Actual hail swaths per MRMS MESH >= .75", colored by measured hail size. I'm not sure when the world will be ready for this kind of data but it sure is sweet

Here it is. The last 10 years of hail events across the U.S. using my prototype hail tracking algorithm! Hoping to build out a more robust climatology of hailstorms like we have for tornadoes.

A rarity for the northern plains: 22 tornado reports but only 1 hail report. This tracks with the evident tropical-like near-MCV environment: warm and nearly saturated low-levels with deep inflow layers and surface-based buoyancy are rarely favorable for severe hail.

This is wild. Reminds me of the convective mode I've observed when a hurricane eye contracts so tightly that it's effectively a supercell.

When I'm not chasing or rockhounding, I'm gathering vintage things and "nature knick-knacks" for my home. Really loving how my living room is coming along lately! (yes, that's a tumbleweed lol)

Some preliminary output from the hail tracker!! Look at all those tracks. Also pay close attention to all the potential tracks that went un-reported (grey). Pretty stoked to even imagine this as a future operational product.

Been a minute since I've been on here, but I've been hard at work. Here's a hail algorithm I developed that strings together reports and MESH data into "events" (colored swaths), in order to fill in the gaps and give more info about each event (duration, areal coverage, storm motion, etc.)

Neat shot from yesterday's Newcastle tornado as it took on a bent-back "boomerang" shape My hypothesis is that the vortex tilted forward due to intense forward momentum when undercut by the colliding squall line, while frictional effects slowed this momentum near the ground.

Tornado towers over Arnett, OK

Today I achieved my dream of showing my mom my passion, and giving her the experience. Mad props to my buddy Jonny for this shot

Interesting day with many discrete storms producing only occasional tornadoes, which rapidly occlude and rope out into the rear flank. This may be a symptom of excessive low-level storm-relative flow and a general absence of rear-flank nudgers/mergers to prevent occlusion.

I love May. Not only does the sky come alive, but so does my community. Old friends, new friends, the sharing of thoughts and the inspiration of new ideas. It always feels like a warm reunion, and a reminder that my life is so cool ❤️

Did someone say “cell mergers”? @cameronjnixon.bsky.social

Comparison of yesterday's automated DAY2 outlook (18Z run) generated by our ML models with today's SPC forecast from @wxliz.bsky.social.

Here a quick time lapse of the first 20 or so minutes of the Matador,TX tornado the other day. I love how the tornado carouseled around the meso multiple times! youtu.be/O5S9Hqkkinw?...

My "the shot" from the Matador, TX tornado

As some of y'all have noticed, I've finally uploaded my storm interactions and "nudgers" talks for your viewing pleasure! :) youtu.be/1qLhFadlqS0?...

Ah yes here come our nightly evening activities

Beautiful example of a supercell undergoing discrete upshear propagation towards its initiating boundary This can induce highly deviant motion and significant precipitation ventilation, resulting in an "elongated" appearance on radar.

Observed three tornadoes today near Hyannis, NE, including a wedge tornado. With @skewt-pi.bsky.social @mattwilsonwx.bsky.social

The Amarillo, TX locale has had an interesting 3 days of supercells Despite multiple discrete supercells every day, their ability to produce tornadoes varied considerably, peaking on Thursday. Why could this have been the case?

What an unreal couple days in the Texas panhandle for chasing slow-moving tornadic supercells. This is the stuff I use my PTO for (4th photo credit Vitor Goede)

No big deal just radar/satellite loops on @chasearchive.bsky.social that will ultimately go back to the 1990s Check it out!! app.chasearchive.com?q=%5BYEAR%5D @ameliaurquhart.bsky.social and @stormchasertang.bsky.social are the dream team

If there's any time to be highlighting the research made possible under NOAA and its partnerships, it's right now. And that work is no joke. inside.nssl.noaa.gov/nsslnews/202...

Legendary storm chaser Tim Marshall had a great view of the west Texas #tornado today! #WxSky

Several elevated, left-moving, mini-supercells in SW OK this afternoon This oddity can be explained by strong backing aloft above a deep inversion. Despite clockwise curvature in the low levels (normally favoring rightmovers), an elevated updraft is not affected by this shear.

Deviant tornado motion 101 Sometimes it appears like the tornado leaves its parent supercell. Others, like the supercell is leaving its tornado behind. It's all storm-relative!

Normanites and OKC'ans, confidence seems to be increasing in a substantial hailstorm in/near the metro this evening. With strong shear and buoyancy aloft, any supercell undercut by the cold front could produce some pretty large (3"+) hail

Thanks to @edwardsanthonyb.bsky.social and SFChronicle for sharing the full NOAA FY26 budget passback. After a detailed reading, think it is important for people to really understand just what massive changes are planned for US weather forecasting and research. open.substack.com/pub/balanced...

What are we even doing

Another impressive severe hail event unfolding, this time in West Virginia Though mediocre at first glance, the environment is very favorable for hail with supercells given straight hodos, and elevated buoyancy profiles due to high LCL. High RH aloft also minimizes entrainment.

And then there's Dora. Had some fun this weekend retouching all my prints with my new Lightroom know-how. Don't ask me why it's been 6 years and I still don't have this on my wall

Dalhart If you're all caught up in the chicklets and sub-seasonal pattern prediction, just remember that the Plains will do Plains things. On this day, I didn't even think I was chasing until 2 hours before it happened, let alone 2 weeks

Thursday, though not particularly impactful, verified with a practically perfect of >60% for hail. Notice how reports are clustered around the higher terrain of southern Appalachia. This may be purely coincidence, or it may be a function of locally lower FZLs. apps.nssl.noaa.gov/s2s-severe/m...

Etowah, a new edit. This one's been a bear of a process, as I had to stitch together 2 photos, one underexposed and one out of focus. I'd say it came out well:

i’m refired!!!

Do you want hail? Because this is how you get hail Scattered supercells are expected today from TN into northern MS/AL. Seasonably cold temps aloft will lower the FZL, while also pumping up CAPE. Combined with very long, straight shear profiles, I would expect some swaths of (2"+) hail

OTD 10 years ago I saw my first tornado, and the damage it had done near Rochelle, IL This day left me with an emotional scar that's still with me, but also sparked many of my research interests like forecasting tornado longevity and cell interactions, that I still pursue today.

For #TornadoTuesday, here's the 23 June 1995 low-precipitation supercell and F1 tornado near Falcon, Colorado. A "mini" supercell in horizontal dimension, but not low-topped (it was still a tall storm).

Today I was finally diagnosed with post-concussion syndrome (and a visual/vestibular processing disorder). A "normal" bump on the head, 5 years ago, still impairs my ability to read, text my friends, give talks, hike, chase, and even write this post. But now I have answers 🙌

And there you have it. At least a dozen tornadic supercells in an STP bullseye of 9, smack dab in the center of an SPC High Risk. We can stop complaining now, or rejoice, or just appreciate the NWS.

Interesting multi-day hail outbreak possible in the southern Plains Quasi-stationary front with persistent WAA and strong mid-lvl shear could trigger multiple rounds of elevated supercells producing swaths of hail. DFW tonight may have 1500+ CAPE, more than enough for 2" stones:

The biases of the HRRR, NAM3k, and FV3 in boundary layer mixing, in one gif: (This is for Tuesday afternoon on the Oklahoma dryline)

A trend I'm watching like a hawk is Tuesday afternoon for the central Plains GFS, NAM, and Euro all coming in much more robust with moisture return. This "just in time" moisture can be (as we saw yesterday) quite finnicky for all-hazards potential, however.

Is the Oklahoma enhanced risk about to be impacted by a "nudger" event from the north Texas enhanced risk? @cameronjnixon.bsky.social please advise