A large update coming later today! These updates will be available for the 2025 cases for now, with older cases to follow. More historical data at your fingertips! - Past upper air maps with all traditional levels and SFC from the case. - Right click to save, no more screenshotting!

No big deal just radar/satellite loops on @chasearchive.bsky.social that will ultimately go back to the 1990s Check it out!! app.chasearchive.com?q=%5BYEAR%5D @ameliaurquhart.bsky.social and @stormchasertang.bsky.social are the dream team

@chasearchive.bsky.social is approaching at an alarming rate. It will be here soon... very soon.

Did you know that Case archive can see the future! Big time case coming up this Saturday! @cameronjnixon.bsky.social @aidanabwx.skyhighcreators.com @ameliaurquhart.bsky.social @wxkylegillett.bsky.social @stormchasertang.bsky.social @landonwx.bsky.social @strmchsrhunterf.bsky.social

My crankiest belief is that we are now being sold on solutions to problems which only exist because we've let others convince us they exist. That is what "innovation" seems to be in 2025. There's a level of introspection that's just not happening these days re: what actually needs to bother us.

Very sad news. I learned more about severe local convective storms from Chuck Doswell than anyone else. He was a friend and mentor.

A snow day in Oklahoma.

Features of Adulthood xkcd.com/3034

Glaze is slippery. More later #kswx

Four photos I took in the closing days of 2024

I have a rough hypothesis that patterns favorable for plentiful California precipitation, Plains tornadoes, and I-95 snowstorms tend to cluster together over multiyear timescales. Occam's Razor says to look at the first EOF of NH 500mb variability: the NAO.

@stormchasertang.bsky.social and I found a tram

REEEEEEEE

Few people even know about this; when people are asked in surveys how child mortality has changed the majority says it has stagnated or increased. If you consider that many don't know about humanity's biggest achievement, then it's not surprising that many are so pessimistic about our future.

Damnit what

Want the most sophisticated machine learning prediction of geomagnetic storming on the planet? SWx TREC’s LiveDst model gives 1- and 6-hour forecasts of the geomagnetic Dst index with quantified uncertainty - a first in the space weather forecasting world! swx-trec.com/dst/

Alaska is pretty cool

While Bluesky looks like other social apps on the surface, it’s actually quite different. It’s an open network. I blogged about it here:

Just learned that the drive from San Fransisco to Seattle is only 12 hours and I regret not having taken that drive when I lived in California

I can't tell if this is accurate, and a reflection of the mass migration of the wx community, or just topics people who migrate to bsky tend to enjoy, or some influence of nominative determinism

Today’s chart: Weather forecasts have become much more accurate. In the US a 4-day forecast is now as accurate as a 1-day forecast 30 years ago.

so I think their mistake was that they identified (correctly!) that algorithmic timelines are good for Not Very Online People, who are the majority of people online, but Very Online People prefer non-algo TLs and, crucially, they're the ones doing most of the posting, and they bring people with them

Some intense precip gradients across the San Francisco Bay Area. Between San Rafael and Richmond (a 20-min drive across a bridge) the 48hr rain totals go from 7" to 0.7". Rain shadowed areas near/east of Mt. Diablo and in the Santa Clara Valley have generally received < a tenth of a inch.

Hello from the Tornado Archive team, Bluesky! Tornado Archive is a website dedicated to worldwide tornado history, climatology, and data visualization. Check out our data viewer!

The westerly wind burst earlier in the month was pretty strong and is worth a further dive into the data/better analysis. Quick glance at Reanalysis daily data in Nov, for the equatorial 850mb zonal wind anomaly at 120°W since 1950, shows it was the strongest since the 1997 and 1998 November events.

Photographers be like “my whole life is in shambles but the lighting is incredible outside” #photography #WxSky #WxBlueSky

I think this could be a nice way to find the dendritic growth zone characteristics that winter forecasters look for (depth, omega, and RH) all wrapped up into one number. I can publish the code to calculate this on GFS grids if there's interest.

I'm not sure it was "obviously" going to be a blowout. First off, there's an incumbent disadvantage here where many people are seeking to leave the model of "big tech company controlling content distribution via algorithms on large platforms" and more focused on smaller niche communities 1/2

Aurora and Milky Way in Norway

Northern Oklahoma feeling a little “sting”y right now

This is about as slam dunk of a California atmospheric river pattern as you can get. Dual high pressure blocking patterns over Alaska and the Davis Strait/Hudson Bay.

I made a thing! I was playing around with the AT protocol and as a little experiment I made a website that visualises activity around Bluesky: nightsky.hctr.dev It listens to all new posts and shows them as little stars across a night sky 🌃 Every star is someone, somewhere, posting something

Bluesky explained in 60 seconds!

In June Elon posted this graph of the rate of likes on X. It doesn't have a unit on the y axis, but it's plausible to assume that it's events/sec. If that is true, X in June was handling about 20k likes/sec. For comparison, Bluesky is now handling about 700 likes/sec during the busy part of the day.

Typhoon #Manyi is putting on an absolute clinic today.

Update: La Ceiba, Honduras, now reporting over 34 inches of total rainfall from #Sara. As pointed out by @agnes1972.bsky.social earlier, that matches their rain total from 1998's Hurricane Mitch. With rain rates of 2-3.5 inches an hour, they'll crush their Mitch total.

A number of artists and creators have made their home on Bluesky, and we hear their concerns with other platforms training on their data. We do not use any of your content to train generative AI, and have no intention of doing so.

In honor of all the new arrivals, I'm sharing one of my favorite videos. It shows 24 hours of Earth's rotation, with the camera locked to the sky instead of the ground. We're all hanging out on this spinning rock. Brilliant work by Bartosz Wojczyński. 🧪 artuniverse.eu/gallery/1907...

The blues and greens in the first image are insane!

This tracks with the blue/purple aurora colors seen on the early morning of 5/11 close to sunrise during the G5 storm- coincided with the sunlight energy and a boost in solar wind speeds around that time (hr 19, blue line bottom plot)

The cool thing about Bluesky is the technical people are active (& hence dogfooding!) on the platform and transparent about the algorithms involved. Emphasis here is on open, extensible ecosystems rather than closed ones that we are used to on more established platforms.

Bluesky is kicking tonight!

Naming my new band "Invalid Handle" to pay homage to Bluesky accounts everywhere today

The Sun. Taken at night. Not looking up at sky but down through 8000 miles of the Earth. Not with light but neutrinos

The thing that really differentiates Bluesky is that it doesn’t feel like it was designed by a bunch of people who will lose their jobs if I spend a little less time on Bluesky.

You could not script this up

From a net human impact perspective, the latest guidance for future TC Sara are concerning. Honduras has a rough history w/ hurricanes & the latest GFS shows a 5-day rainfall total of 1242 mm, or 48 inches, over parts of its north coast. This would have catastrophic consequences.

Here is a thread showcasing my GitHub repositories: 1) Friends Don't Let Friends Make Bad Graphs. An opinionated essay on good and bad graphs. My popular one by a long shot with 6.4k stars and 248 forks. github.com/cxli233/Frie...

If you read between the lines you can tell the ECMWF is investing more heavily in their ensemble and AI systems and less so on their deterministic model— something to keep in mind when considering the suite of guidance and the direction where model development is going towards

NEW: Webcams captured an apocalyptic-like scene in California's Central Valley as a haboob/dust storm moved through Monday afternoon. #CAwx www.sfchronicle.com/weather/arti...