Natural variability, in low frequency states of atmospheric circulation, is becoming increasingly likely as the main explanation for the North Atlantic warming hole.

I'm too stupid to help myself, but I keep checking the sky to the north here in cloudy, light-pollution filled NJ. lol

Significant snow squall across PA and I-80. These are notorious accident producers.

#LOT issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 9, 3:11 AM CST ...DANGEROUS LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY... Link

At 10:15 PM EST, Leisuretowne [Burlington Co, NJ] Trained Spotter reports Tstm Wnd Dmg. Multiple large tree limbs down on a house leading to roof damage. Time estimated from radar. #njwx Link

READING/SPAATZ FLD,PA (RDG) ASOS reports gust of 53 knots (61.0 mph) from WNW @ 0254Z -- KRDG 060254Z 29029G53KT 10SM -RA SCT043 SCT060 BKN080 16/08 A2972 RMK AO2 PK WND 31053/0254 RAB0158 SLP067 P0001 60001 T01560083 53021

MIDDLETOWN/OLMSTED,PA (MDT) ASOS reports gust of 54 knots (62.1 mph) from NW @ 0141Z -- KMDT 060156Z 30020G36KT 6SM -RA SCT030 BKN065 OVC100 13/10 A2972 RMK AO2 PK WND 31054/0141 RAB42 SLP064 P0005 T01280100

CLEARFIELD-LAWRENCE APT(WAS N97),PA (FIG) ASOS reports gust of 56 knots (64.4 mph) from NNW @ 0036Z -- KFIG 060054Z AUTO 31024G40KT 10SM -RA SCT022 BKN029 OVC039 09/06 A2979 RMK AO2 PK WND 33056/0036 RAE11B36 PRESRR SLP096 P0003 T00940061

@lawliberg.bsky.social voting was a lot smoother this morning in Northwest Burlington but alas it's not a presidential election. There were two booths with two stations each to vote where I go. I suppose that's sufficient for now. 🤷‍♂️

The Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) satellite-derived intensity estimate peaked at 185 knots for #Melissa -- which, according to the developer at CIMSS, is the highest value to date for any tropical cyclone.

Descending mesoscale inflow jets in close proximity to core that work with the core or non-perturbing Vortex Rossby Waves, all a possibility with Melissa's ability to sustain/resist classic ERC so far. Experts will soon dive into the data to let us know. For now, we speculate.

This is the motion of Comet C/2025 A6 (Lemmon) over a period of 53 minutes. #astrophotography

On Oct. 16, 1987, southern Britain’s landscape was unrecognizable. Overnight, the country had been hit by its fiercest storm in more than 300 years where at least 18 people were killed. No one — not even Britain’s trusted weather forecasters — had seen it coming.

Whether you are in the Outer Banks or up in New England, much of the Northeast US Coastal Plain is seeing northeasterly wind. Locally here in NJ, the LLJ will peak this evening/tonight before moving out/weakening tomorrow morning.

Bethany Beach, DE and Barnegat, NJ wave heights plots this morning.

You can get seasick watching the Cape May Marina webcam in the wind: capemaymarina.com/live-cameras/

I have been enjoying watching the visible loop of the circulation off the NC/SC coastline this morning. The 12z analysis has a 992mb low here.

New surge forecasts are in... some up, some down, most same. Big news: Cape May is now forecast to have the highest gauge level in its 25-year record. Lewes, DE has fallen from #3 to #7.

The current forecast at Cape May Harbor Sunday afternoon has major flooding. Uh oh.

A nor'easter is becoming likely this weekend/early next week for the Mid Atlantic. The idea of the northern stream s/w not cutting off to interact with the coastal storm is losing support.

This weekend's partial to full phase is going to be fun.

I went to check these products this morning and forgot...oh right, of course. :( It's the end of an era in the stratosphere world: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/str...

Seeing fallstreaks/hole punch signatures on the visible satellite this morning over NJ.

Okay, tomorrow has my attention. I'll be at CHOP and distracted but will need to keep an eye on this.

Having a child who's suffering from Henoch-Schönlein Purpura (HSP) is terrible. We're in the midst of it. Have any of you had experience with this? I never heard of it until we went to the ER Monday.

There is a culture of death here which does not want to operate in reality.

Climate change has been linked with westward-displaced Rossby Waves for the NH late summer, and precipitation deficits/sea ice are usually a positive feedback for that (e.g. the resilient western ridge of North America).

The warming in the Northeast Pacific lately 👀 psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst...

Looks like a TDS near Holden, MA

Organized meso over E NY

Some of the forecast profiles tomorrow over interior New England/E NY are nasty. A tornado outbreak cannot be ruled out. Let's see how the new day-2 looks.

The day of the EF-3 wedge tornado in NJ. www.njweather.org/content/ida-...

Better moisture advection and convergence beginning near the NR coast. Let's see how it plays out in terms of the PRE. Also, check out the awesome gravity waves on the north/northeast side of Erin.

The Mile Marker 39 and newer Sawgrass Fires are close to merging and will likely grow to at least 20,000 acres today as Erin’s winds and subsidence enhance dry and hot offshore flow. Air quality is dangerous in the smoke plume this morning but will improve with daytime mixing. #FLwx #Erin

PHI issues Tropical Storm Warning for Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm, Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm [AN] until further notice Link

WPC DAY 2 mentions that conditions are favorable for a PRE over NE/NY. The factors are there tomorrow for it to come together. We'll see if it can work out or not. It's possible the deepest moisture and best synoptics do not time correctly.

What, no gifs of ice skater moment of inertia drops?

Erin's central pressure was in the 990s this time yesterday, and it's now in the 920's heading for the teens. This will make Erin the fastest deepening Atlantic hurricane before Sept 1st. Beating Emily 2005, by a lot.

PHI issues Flash Flood Warning [flash flood: radar and gauge indicated] for Burlington [NJ] and Bucks, Montgomery, Philadelphia [PA] till Aug 13, 11:00 PM EDT Link

😬

Fortunately well out to sea, but check out #Dexter & its resurrection as a powerful #extratropical cyclone over the North Atlantic. Perfect case for a meteorological deep dive: Favorable trough interaction led to "sting jet" formation & #hurricane force winds as cyclone phases w/ shortwave. 🌀 🦂

We just saw one of the better examples of the north-south mode in the tropical forcing (BSISO) from mid July into early August.

Good video on Milankovitch Cycles from @neildegrassetyson.com & Steve Soter. Highlights role of modern CO2 release on changing the evolution of Earth's climate over the next tens to hundreds of thousands of years (but I'd mention its big role in G-IG cycles too) 1/ www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mqzs...

South Park responds to DHS

Snapping a ruler using air pressure.

The @wmo-global.bsky.social Vegetation Fire and Smoke Pollution Warning and Advisory System North American Regional Centre provides a current comparison of smoke forecasts, including PM2.5 & PM10 hpfx.collab.science.gc.ca/~svfs000/na-... cc @drjeffmasters.bsky.social @climateconnections.bsky.social

How apt is the METAR code "FU" for smoke being reported. 😂